I. Domestic and foreign resources
(a) state of world resources
By the end of 2009, the world gold reserve was 47,000 tons. The world gold reserves are mainly concentrated in South Africa, Australia, Russia, Indonesia, the United States and Chile, which together account for more than half of the world total. In addition, countries rich in gold resources include China, Uzbekistan, Ghana, Mexico and Peru (Figure 1).
Figure1Distribution of World Gold Reserves in 2009 Source: Summary of Mineral Commodities, 20 10.
(2) Domestic resources
China gold mine is dominated by rock gold, with many small deposits and complicated mining technical conditions. By the end of 2009, the number of gold mines in China was 25 17, and the reserves were 10 15.5 tons. Among them, rock gold is 7 13.9 tons, placer gold 103.6 tons and associated gold 198.0 tons. The proven resources of China Gold Mine are 6,327.9 tons, an increase of 9.3% over the previous year, and the newly proven resources are 540.2 tons. According to the current output, the static guarantee period of China's gold reserves is 3.2 years, which is at a low level. China's gold resources are mainly distributed in Shandong, Jiangxi, Inner Mongolia, Jilin, Hunan and Henan provinces (regions), accounting for 6 1% of the country's total gold reserves (table 1).
Table 1 2009 China Gold Resource Reserve and Basic Reserve Unit: ton (metal quantity)
II. Production and supply at home and abroad
(a) world production and supply situation
The world's major gold producers are China, South Africa, Australia, the United States, Peru, Russia, Indonesia and Canada, accounting for 12.3%, 8.6%, 9.4%, 9.0%, 7.7%, 7.8%, 4.9% and 4. 1% of the world's total mineral gold output respectively. The output of some major gold-producing countries is declining year by year, among which South Africa and the United States are the most obvious. In 2009, the output decreased by 12.7 tons and 17.9 tons respectively (Table 2).
Table 2 Statistical table of world mineral gold production from 2003 to 2009 Unit: ton (metal quantity)
Source: World Metal Statistics.
According to the statistics of the World Gold Council, the total global gold supply in 2009 was 4,025 tons, an increase of 1 1.68% over the previous year, of which the mineral gold supply was 2,570 tons, an increase of 6.68% over the previous year. The official gold sales volume is 4 1 ton, the lowest since 2003; The supply of reclaimed gold was 65,438+0,668 tons, an increase of 26.75% over the previous year (Table 3).
Table 3 Structural unit of world gold supply in 2003-2009: ton (metal quantity)
Source: World Gold Council.
(2) Domestic production and supply situation
Before 1970s, gold production in China was in the development stage. Later, with the increasing application of cyanide technology, the gold industry began to enter a stage of rapid development. The biggest feature of gold production is that it has a wide range of points and a small scale. In recent years, China's gold production has increased steadily, ranking first in the world in 2007 (Figure 2; Table 4).
Figure 2 1990-2009 Changes in Gold Production and Consumption in China Source: Compilation of Statistical Data of Nonferrous Metals Industry (2000-2009); china gold association
In 2009, the national gold smelting enterprises produced finished gold 15 1. 18 tons, an increase of 12. 18% over the previous year. Nonferrous metal smelting enterprises produced 59.25 tons of finished gold, an increase of 65,438+00.83% over the previous year. Among them, the gold output of key nonferrous metal smelting enterprises accounts for 33.77% of the national nonferrous metal smelting enterprises, Yunnan Copper Group Company 13.68%, Anhui Tongling Nonferrous Metal Company 12.84%, Hubei Daye Nonferrous Metal Company 9.86% and Shanghai Xinye Copper Co., Ltd. 7.94%. The gold output of the above-mentioned key nonferrous metal smelting enterprises accounts for about 78.09% of the national nonferrous metal smelting enterprises. Gold smelting enterprises completed 9 1.93 tons of finished gold, an increase of 13.09% over the previous year. Among them, the gold output of key gold smelting enterprises accounts for 3 1.5 1% of the national gold smelting enterprises, Henan Lingbao Gold Co., Ltd.16.1%,China Mining Gold Industry 1 1%, and Henan Zhongyuan. The gold output of the above-mentioned key gold smelting enterprises accounts for 67.4438+0% of the national gold smelting enterprises.
Table 4 Gold output of mines in various provinces (regions) in 2009
Source: China Gold Association
Third, the domestic and international consumption situation
(a) world consumption situation
The gold market demand in 2009 was 3,455.4 tons, 9.34% less than that in 2008. The demand of jewelry industry decreased compared with 2008, with the demand of 1758.9 tons, accounting for 50.90% of the total demand. The net demand for retail investment decreased by 152 tons, down by 17.8+0% compared with the previous year. The industrial and dental demand was 373.4 tons, a decrease of15.02% over the previous year; The capital demand is 6 17. 1 ton, an increase of 92.3% over the previous year (Table 5).
Table 5 Structural unit of world gold demand in 2003-2009: ton (metal quantity)
Source: World Gold Council.
Note: ① Net retail investment excludes gold bars and original gold coins, mainly in North America and Western Europe; 2. Trading funds and similar products include gold bars, securities, bonds and stocks; ③ The confirmed terminal demand does not include the central bank.
With the rising price of gold and the recession of the world economy, the investment boom of gold is heating up, and investors are very fond of gold mutual funds. According to the analysis of relevant departments, the traditional gold investment method is not easy to enter, and it has to pay high costs such as insurance, storage and price increase. The advantage of gold mutual fund is that investors can buy shares of gold mutual fund through stockbrokers, thus avoiding the above problems.
India is the world's largest gold consumer, with demand of 480.0 tons in 2009, down 33% year-on-year, of which the demand of jewelry industry is 405.8 tons; Followed by China, the demand was 427.6 tons, a year-on-year increase of 9%, of which the demand of jewelry industry was 372.8 tons; The United States ranked third, with demand of 263.0 tons, down 1% year-on-year, of which the demand of jewelry industry was 150.3 tons (Table 6).
Table 6 Major gold consuming countries and regions in the world in 2009 Unit: ton (metal quantity)
sequential
Source: World Gold Council.
(2) Domestic consumption
In the early 1990s, the consumption of gold in China increased rapidly, from 1990 to 1992, which increased by 3.4 times in two years. Subsequently, China's gold consumption was basically in the process of reduction, from 352.4 tons in 1992 to 200 tons in1year, with a reduction rate of 43.59%. After 200 1, the demand for gold began to pick up, reaching 427.5 tons in 2009, an increase of 8.86% over the previous year, accounting for 10.6% of the world's physical demand for gold. Among them, jewelry consumption is 347. 17 tons, accounting for 81.17% of the total consumption; Pure retail investment consumption is 80.5 tons, accounting for 18.83% of the total demand. Judging from the changes in these nine years, the demand of gold jewelry industry began to decline from 205.6 tons in 2000 to 199.6 tons in 2002, and then increased year by year, reaching 347. 1 ton in 2009. However, the overall demand for gold investment is on the rise (Table 7).
Table 7 Demand for physical gold in China from 2003 to 2009 Unit: ton (metal quantity)
Source: World Gold Council.
Four. Trade status of mineral products at home and abroad
(a) the state of international trade
In the international gold ingot trade in 2009, the United States imported 340 tons of gold ingots, which was the first substantial increase after reaching 34 1 ton in 2005, with a year-on-year increase of 47.2%. Canada accounts for 30%, Peru for 29%, Mexico for 16%, Chile for 9% and others for 16%. On the export side, in 2009, the amount of gold exported by the United States decreased by 32.2% year-on-year to 385 tons.
In 2008, Australia exported 379 tons of gold, but the sharp rise in gold prices led to a sharp increase in Australia's gold exports, with a year-on-year increase of 13. 13%. In 2008, the value of gold exports reached A $654.38+04.7 billion, accounting for 6.4% of Australia's total annual exports. In 2008, Australia's major gold exporters were A $5 billion from India, A $4.8 billion from Britain, A $0/10/0 million from Thailand and A $700 million from Singapore.
In 2008, the value of Canada's gold exports was estimated to be $8.942 billion, an increase of 45.84% over 2007. The import volume is expected to be 62.42 tons, an increase of 38.43% over 2007. Its main exporters are the United States, European Union countries and Japan.
In 2009, Peru's gold exports increased by 22%, and the annual exports reached 6.8 billion US dollars. Peru is the first gold producer in Latin America and the fourth in the world, and its gold exports have remained strong for many years. Peru's gold exports are mainly Switzerland (57%), Canada (25%) and the United States (14%).
(2) Domestic trade situation
China's gold export products are mainly gold jewelry. In 2008, the total trade volume of gold jewelry and its parts and components was US$ 2.353 billion, the export value was US$ 265.438+0.8 billion, and the import value was US$ 65.438+0.73 billion, increasing by 6.5%, 5.3% and 23.6% respectively compared with 2007 (Table 8).
Table 8 Main (inbound) sources and (outbound) destinations of gold ornaments and their parts in China in 2008
Source: Yearbook of Customs Statistics
After 1992, the annual import of gold ornaments and their parts in China has been small, but it shows a trend of increasing year by year (Figure 3). The main importers of gold jewelry and its diamond-inlaid parts are Switzerland, Hongkong, China, French, Italian and American. In 2008, China's mainland imports were US$ 654.38+02.977 million, US$ 654.38 +0065438+032 million, US$ 654.38 +05765438+0909 million and US$ 7.909 million respectively. Other gold jewelry and its parts are mainly imported from China, Hongkong and South Korea. In 2008, the import amount was 465,438+0,065,438+0,654,38+0,000 USD and 4,363,000 USD respectively, accounting for 36.7% of the total.
The export of gold ornaments and their parts in China has changed greatly, showing an increasing trend year by year on the whole (Figure 3). The main export (exit) destinations of gold ornaments and their diamond-inlaid parts are the United States, China, Hongkong, Britain, France and Italy. In 2008, the mainland (outbound) amount of China was 47 1.66 million US dollars, 460.989 million US dollars, 22.535 million US dollars, 654.380597 million US dollars and 6.077 million US dollars respectively. The main (outbound) destinations of other gold ornaments and their parts are China, Hongkong and South Korea. In 2008, their (outbound) amounts were US$ 742.04 million and US$ 49.709 million respectively, accounting for 68.8% of the total.
Figure 3 1990-2009 Changes in the import and export volume of gold ornaments and their parts.
Verb (abbreviation for verb) price trend
In 2009, the average price of gold in the international market was 969.9 1 USD/oz, up by 1 1.23% over the previous year. The price of gold has been rising linearly since 200 1, especially in 2006, 2007 and 2008 (Figure 4). In 2009, the price of gold continued to strengthen. In February 2009, the spot gold price exceeded 1000 USD/oz. In September 2009, the price of gold soared for six consecutive trading days, breaking through the $65,438+0,000/oz mark. On June 8, 2009, it reached an all-time high of 1022 USD/oz, and the price continued to rise. On February 3rd, 2009, the spot gold price of 65438+ reached a new record, reaching 1 126.60 USD/oz. From $879.7 per ounce of 65438+ 10 in June 2009 to $0/096 per ounce of 3 1 in February 2009, the price of gold rose by 24.5% in 2009 (Figure 5).
Figure 4 Changes of gold trading price in London, England from 1990 to 2009.
Figure 5 Changes of gold trading price in London, UK in 2009
The reasons for the continuous rise of gold prices are the depreciation of the US dollar, inflation expectations, the purchase of gold by the central bank, and the supply and demand of gold.
(1) The dollar depreciated. The international gold price is set in dollars, which basically forms an inverse relationship, that is, when the dollar falls, the gold price rises, and when the dollar rises, the gold price falls. Recently, the exchange rate weighted index (DXY) of the US dollar against the currencies of six developed countries has hit a one-year low of 75, just one step away from the historical low of 70.6 last year. Since March 2009, the index has fallen by as much as 15% in half a year, which directly promoted the rise of gold price.
(2) Inflation expectation. In the era of gold parity, gold has good anti-inflation characteristics, and until today, gold still has a certain anti-inflation effect. Since the outbreak of the international financial crisis in 2008, many countries have lowered interest rates and implemented large-scale loose monetary policies. This has aroused investors' worries about future economic inflation and promoted the safe-haven demand for gold investment.
(3) The central bank buys gold. The central bank's increase in gold reserves has greatly encouraged the gold market and promoted gold investment. In April 2009, China announced that its gold reserves increased by 454 tons, reaching 1.054 tons. From June 5438 to July 2009, Russia also increased its gold reserves by 48.9 tons, and some central banks in CIS and Middle East countries also increased their gold reserves slightly.
(4) Gold demand. In 2009, the global gold market demand was 3,455 tons, a decrease of 9.35% over the previous year. The increasing demand for precious metals in Indian, China and other emerging economies is also one of the important reasons for the high price of gold. The development of hedge funds has intensified speculation on gold, which has also become an important factor in pushing up the price of gold.
Conclusion of intransitive verbs
(a) world supply and demand trends
The gold investment boom continues to heat up, the price of gold continues to rise, and the contradiction between supply and demand in the world gold market is prominent. In 2009, supply exceeded demand (Table 9). In 2009, the total supply of gold in the world was 4,026 tons, up by 1 1.68% over the previous year, of which the supply of mineral gold was 2,570 tons, up by 6.68% over the previous year. In 2009, the gold market demand was 3,455 tons, a decrease of 9.35% over the previous year.
Table 9 Balance of World Gold Supply and Demand in 2004-2009 Unit: ton (metal quantity)
Source: World Gold Council.
(b) Domestic supply and demand trends
China's gold production showed a steady and rapid growth momentum. In 2009, China's gold output reached 3 13.98 tons, up 1 1.34% year-on-year, ranking first in the world for three consecutive years (table 10). The main reasons for the accelerated growth of gold production in China are as follows: First, since the global gold price rose sharply in 2006, the domestic gold market has been further expanded, and gold geological exploration and resource development have developed steadily and healthily. Second, in recent years, China's gold production has increased substantially, thanks to the substantial increase in gold mining by foreign joint ventures in China. The demand for gold in China is increasing year by year, and the investment demand is more and more obvious. In 2009, the total investment and consumption of jewelry and pure retail in China was 427.5 tons, an increase of 8.9% over the previous year. As of 2009, the gap between supply and demand of gold in China reached 109 tons, the market situation was not optimistic, the available reserves were insufficient, it was difficult to meet the demand, and the replacement of gold resources was quite serious.
Table10 Balance of gold supply and demand in China from 2002 to 2009 Unit: ton (metal quantity)
Source: Statistical Compilation of Nonferrous Metals Industry from 2000 to 2009; China gold association information
(Zhu Bolin)