The phenomenon of "holiday economy" in China is mainly based on the following reasons:
First, with the reform and opening up, social productive forces have developed rapidly, and the income level of residents has been greatly improved. International experience shows that the per capita annual income exceeds 500 to 800 dollars, which is the period of rapid expansion of tourism consumption. 1999, the per capita income of urban residents in China is 5854 yuan, which has reached about 500 US dollars, and some cities have reached 1000 US dollars. It can be said that China has entered the threshold of tourism expansion;
Second, the increase of people's leisure time. 1999 the State Council decided to increase citizens' holiday time, reaching 1 14 days throughout the year, accounting for 3 1.2% of the total number of days in the year. In a sense, the quality of holiday consumption determines whether the consumer market is sunny or sunny in a year;
Third, the change of people's consumption concept. Influenced by traditional morality and years of hard life under "shortage economy", most people in China pay more attention to accumulation than consumption, especially spiritual consumption and the improvement of life quality. In fact, this is suitable for low income levels. Engel's law shows that with the increase of income level, the proportion of low-grade goods and basic consumer goods in total expenditure will decrease, and the proportion of cultural and educational expenditure of high-grade goods will increase greatly. With China entering the period of "relative surplus economy", under the influence of government and media measures, residents' consumption concept has gradually changed. Without this, the "holiday economy" is impossible.
Fourth, most markets in China are dominated by buyers, and there are more and more kinds of goods and services. The industrial system of holiday economy covers a wide range, involving almost most of the tertiary industry. Besides tourism, business, catering, entertainment, sports, transportation, film and television, exhibitions, advertisements and even lottery tickets are all part of the holiday economy.
Holiday economy is a new economic model gradually formed with the development of China's economy and society, the continuous improvement of people's living standards and the increasing leisure time. In order to stimulate economic development, the government has put forward economic policies to encourage consumption and expand domestic demand. On this premise, three seven-day holidays, May, Monday, 10, Monday and Spring Festival, were launched one after another, which made the annual public holidays in China reach 1 14 days, providing residents with sufficient time for consumption and leisure vacation, thus laying a solid foundation for holiday economy. The policy of increasing public holidays and public investment is the sustainable driving force for the prosperity of holiday economy.
Increase the number of public holidays.
1), the positive significance of increasing the number of public holidays First of all, extending holidays is beneficial to economic development. According to the provisions of China's labor system, Chinese citizens have 1 14 days of public holidays every year. The extension of holidays is beneficial for people to use holidays for consumption and stimulate economic growth. From the perspective of microeconomics, the length of consumption and leisure time is related to the interaction between wealth effect and substitution effect. With the development of social economy, science and technology, the improvement of production function increases social wealth, and the wealth effect makes it possible to consume more with less labor. At the same time, the substitution effect urges people to work more to increase consumption. With the development of economy, the accumulation of wealth makes people have more leisure time to spend.
With the further development of economy, the substitution effect and wealth effect brought by the improvement of labor productivity cancel each other out, so the leisure time has not changed much, but the consumption has continued to increase. At present, China's GDP is growing steadily at an annual rate of 8%, the income of urban and rural residents is also increasing year by year, and the Engel coefficient of urban and rural households is decreasing year by year, which provides an opportunity for China to vigorously develop holiday economy. Annual per capita net income of rural households (yuan), Engel coefficient of rural households (%), per capita disposable income of urban households (%), Engel coefficient of urban households (%) 1999 22 1 0.352.500025486 7.76859.638.2 20022475.646.27702.837.7 Table 1: Per capita net income of urban and rural households and Engel Taking 2000-2002 as an example, the total number of outbound tourists in China was 744 million and 7. In the past three years, the number of outbound tourists in the Golden Week was 65.438+0.26 billion, 65.438+0.83 billion and 26.5438+0.90 billion respectively, accounting for 654.38% of the number of outbound tourists in the whole year. The comprehensive income of related tourism accounts for 23.2%, 24.6% and 22.3% of the annual income respectively.
According to the real economic cycle theory of macroeconomics, the improvement of production function is continuous due to the positive role of scientific and technological development and capital productivity improvement. The positive effect of wealth accumulation on consumer demand promotes the occurrence of consumption. At the same time, consumption is pro-cyclical, and the development of consumption can further expand consumers' demand for goods, thus promoting the effective improvement of production function. As a result, output rose and real interest rates did not change much.
Residents' holiday leisure consumption can promote the development of railway, civil aviation, road passenger and freight transportation, catering, hotels, retail, advertising, communications, banking and other related industries. According to the consumption theory, the consumption of one industry can drive the consumption of related industries at the same time. Taking the "May 1" and "Eleventh" holidays in 2004 as an example, holiday tourism contributed 654.38+0.6 billion yuan and 654.38+0.85 billion yuan respectively. Railway passenger revenue also reached11.40 billion yuan and1.1.50 billion yuan in the same period. Statistics from the Ministry of Internal Trade show that during the "Eleventh" holiday from 65438 to 0999, the retail sales of key large enterprises nationwide 100 reached 8.2 billion yuan, up by 20.9% year-on-year. During the Spring Festival in 2005, the number of short messages sent in seven days exceeded 654.38+000 billion. During the Spring Festival, more than 165438+ 10,000 people went out to eat at the New Year's Eve in Beijing, and the turnover on that day was about 80 million yuan. The "snowball" effect produced by a series of related consumption activities has made the whole "cake" of holiday economy bigger and bigger, which has promoted the all-round development of the tertiary industry.
2) Increasing holidays is conducive to increasing employment opportunities. With the progress of society and the development of science and technology, economists point out that developed countries such as the United States have entered a post-industrial society. The most important structural change is the change from commodity economy to service economy, which leads to the decline of manufacturing status. In the past 20 years, the economies of major western developed countries have basically completed this transformation. Take Canada as an example. 70% of Canadians are engaged in service industries related to transportation, education, medical care, banking, consulting and tourism.
The growth of the tertiary industry, which mainly focuses on leisure and entertainment services, is an important part of the transition to post-industrial economy. Since the reform and opening up in China, the economy has been developing continuously, and the contribution of the tertiary industry to the whole GDP is increasing. The prosperity of the tertiary industry has also promoted the steady development of the primary and secondary industries. The purpose of increasing public holidays in China is to promote consumption and prosper the economy, and the development of the tertiary industry has become the key to achieve this goal. The development of the tertiary industry in China is still in the primary stage, and many potential jobs have not yet been developed. With the continuous development of the tertiary industry, many new jobs will be created, which will play a great role in alleviating the employment difficulties of laid-off workers in China and maintaining social stability.
Expansion has great potential in developing holiday economy.
China's annual public holidays have reached 1 14 days, accounting for almost one-third of the total number of days in the year. The quality of holiday economy directly affects the economy of a year? At the same time, as a measure to expand domestic demand, the development of holiday economy should fully consider the realistic possibility of increasing financial strength, so that the holiday economy can further prosper on a reliable material basis. The potential of strengthening public investment policy in developing holiday economy is mainly manifested in:
First, the public investment policy has a strong sense of identity, basically reaching the understanding of * * *, with low cost and good effect in the implementation process. Public investment policy mainly holds public projects in the form of government expenditure, such as building some non-profit or low-profit basic industries and infrastructure, such as urban public housing, water supply, power supply, communications, transportation, parks, river and lake management, water conservancy projects, etc., which has the characteristics of overflow monopoly. In the reality that China has continuously used various monetary policies to stimulate the economy, but it is far from achieving the expected policy effect, it will be an appropriate policy tool to implement a proactive fiscal policy, especially to strengthen the public investment policy with the expansion of public project expenditure as the main content.
By increasing policy investment on a large scale and focusing macroeconomic policies on large-scale infrastructure investment to stimulate economic recovery, social demand can be directly formed without the corresponding response of enterprises and individuals, thus producing policy effects that monetary policy does not have. Judging from the lag of policy, fiscal policy has more advantages in expanding demand. Moreover, strengthening infrastructure construction requires a large amount of funds and a long construction period. There is room for the role and time of public investment policy, which can continuously expand investment demand and improve supply, and constantly create good supporting facilities and external environment for the development of holiday economy.
First, the implementation of public investment policy has achieved certain results and accumulated rich experience. For example, in public investment, equipment procurement emphasizes the use of domestic products; In the case of limited funds in the central budget, measures such as expanding the issuance of construction bonds, converting joint-stock enterprises into state-owned shares, and deducting investment tax were taken to expand the sources of funds. Encourage private investment in infrastructure construction such as expressways, diversify investment subjects, broaden direct investment channels and stimulate investment demand. Under the background of large-scale issuance of national debt, the proceeds from the issuance of national debt are basically used for public investment in infrastructure and other aspects. These measures effectively solve the problem of insufficient production funds in government investment, provide financial guarantee for accelerating infrastructure construction and strengthening public investment policies, and prepare realistic conditions for eliminating the "obstruction" and restrictions of holiday economy by "bottleneck" departments such as transportation.
Second, the cost of public investment policy is relatively low, the opportunity cost is low, and the fiscal policy tool is highly malleable. The so-called policy opportunity cost refers to other benefits that are abandoned when implementing economic policies. This can be measured by cost, which can be material cost, such as manpower, material resources and financial resources; It can also be a spiritual cost, such as social contradictions caused by policy implementation. Compared with financial subsidies, public investment policy is more flexible in seeking supply and demand, because government expenditure has obvious rigidity, that is, "ratchet effect".
Since infrastructure investment is a non-recurrent financial expenditure, raising funds by issuing treasury bonds can flexibly expand and reduce the annual investment scale according to the macroeconomic prosperity of the year, which can not only produce a strong policy effect against the economic cycle, but also reduce the scale of issuing bonds and reduce the debt burden in economic prosperity. In addition, because the investment expenditure will form the corresponding state-owned assets, making the national debt and state-owned assets form a symmetrical state, so the national debt at this time has the nature of "virtual" national debt. China's national debt balance is low, the debt stock is high, the savings rate is high, and there is still some room for manoeuvre in the expansion of national debt scale.
Increasing the public investment policy by issuing additional treasury bonds can not only solve the problem of insufficient government construction funds, but also effectively solve the problem that financial institutions cannot expand high-quality assets. In addition, the rise of holiday economy has increased the demand pressure on infrastructure. Under the current deflation, large-scale construction can reduce the cost of advanced collective projects and financing, and it is timely to strengthen the implementation of public investment policies. It can be seen that strengthening the public investment policy can promote the long-term development of the holiday economy, and at the same time bear less costs, which is an ideal tool for implementing a proactive fiscal policy under the current situation.
Effect analysis of accelerated development of holiday economy
First of all, increasing public investment is a pumping policy. When the economy is depressed, it can automatically restore the vitality of the economy by paying a certain amount of financial funds. Countries that increase public investment policies can stimulate the prosperity of holiday economy by starting consumption and investment in both directions. Through the construction of infrastructure projects, we can not only absorb labor and create employment opportunities, but also increase residents' income, stimulate consumer demand and provide a material basis for the development of holiday economy. At the same time, it can quickly increase the scale of investment, directly expand the demand for social investment, stimulate economic growth, improve the weak and lagging infrastructure, and provide good supporting facilities and services for the development of holiday economy.
Secondly, the increase of government expenditure and the holding of public projects are conducive to expanding the administrative effect of fiscal policy to promote private investment. Because infrastructure projects are generally capital-intensive and the government's financial funds are limited, the right to operate infrastructure projects can be transferred by means of financial discount, government holding shares, financial guarantee, etc., so as to fully mobilize and absorb idle social funds to participate in investment, expand investment demand, and provide conditions for increasing employment and personal income, and finally expand consumer spending. Thirdly, by strengthening the cooperation between public investment policy and monetary and financial policy tools, providing credit support and guiding the development direction of holiday economy.
While promoting tourism, wedding and shopping consumption, banks pay attention to supporting the development of industries closely related to "holiday economy" such as municipal construction, transportation and communication, which will provide financial support for the further prosperity of "holiday economy", provide a realistic basis for the coordinated use of fiscal policy and monetary policy, and help realize the diffusion effect of public investment policy. Of course, strengthening the public investment policy will also bring some negative effects to the development of holiday economy. For example, the funds invested by the public will reduce the consumption expenditure and reduce the consumption demand of the holiday economy to a certain extent.