Since 65438125 October, anti-government protests have continued to break out in Egypt, and the anti-government demonstrations in the capital Cairo and its nearby cities quickly spread and escalated into large-scale riots in less than a week. As the fourth largest Arab economy, Egypt is located between the Mediterranean Sea and the Red Sea, connecting the Middle East and North Africa. It is a force that cannot be ignored in the global strategic pattern, and the Suez Canal, one of the most important trade and energy channels in the world, also makes Egypt play a decisive role in the world economy. How much influence did the Egyptian riots have on us?

Influence on oil transportation

Richard Newell, director of the us energy information administration (EIA), said recently that if the Suez Canal and major oil pipelines were closed, the world would still have enough capacity to transport 4-5 million barrels of oil every day, but so far, the Suez Canal transportation has not been affected.

Richard Newell said that this will moderately increase the tanker freight. It is also said that the amount of petroleum products that Egypt passes through the Suez Canal and Sumed oil pipeline every day is about 365,438+million barrels. The Sumatra oil pipeline is about 200 miles long and carries oil from northern Egypt to the Red Sea and Mediterranean region.

He also said that the global seaborne oil is about 45 million barrels per day, and there is currently about 10% or 4-5 million barrels per day of idle seaborne capacity. "We have come to the conclusion that even if the Suez Canal and the Sumeid oil pipeline in Egypt are closed, the global oil shipping capacity is still relatively loose. If the Suez Canal is closed, the tanker needs to bypass about 6,000 miles or add 12 days, but it will not increase the transportation cost too much. "

Impact on export enterprises

At present, some China enterprises exporting to Egypt are paying close attention to the development of the situation in Egypt, because if the situation deteriorates, it may affect this year's orders.

Egypt is the largest market for digital source technology in the Middle East. Since 2006, Egyptian customers have been ordering CRT components from Digital Source Technology. Last year, Digital Source exported nearly 70,000 LCD TVs and circuit boards to Egypt. A representative of a data technology company believes that TV sets are a rigid demand, and Egypt's activities are mainly concentrated in Cairo, which should not have much impact on TV sales. However, a company doing business in Egypt is obviously much more nervous, because they just received a big project from the Egyptian government last year. Once the political situation in Egypt is unstable, this cooperation project is likely to go down the drain.

Egypt is also an important export area of compulsory small commodities. According to relevant data, by 2009, there were more than 1500 Egyptian merchants in Yiwu, and there were 62 Egyptian business organizations in Yiwu. In 2008, Yiwu exported more than $20 million to Egypt. The turmoil in Egypt has worried merchants in Yiwu small commodity market.

According to reports, when doing business, business households in Yiwu usually delay delivery by one or two weeks, sometimes even more than three months. Previously, due to the domestic political turmoil in Tunisia, many downstream dealers closed down, which made it difficult to recover tens of millions of yuan in Yiwu, and the distribution scale of Egyptian merchants in Yiwu definitely exceeded that of Tunisia. To this end, Yiwu police reminded business households that if they have business dealings with foreign trade companies in Egypt, it is best to strengthen contact with customers and try to recover the payment in advance.

Impact on freight forwarders

The turmoil in Egypt affected the shipping of the Suez Canal from the beginning, and the port could not operate normally. Half of the cargo ships passing through the canal can't stop for supplies, and the crew can't get on board. Some mainland shippers and freight forwarders have delivered the goods to Egypt, and they are worried that the payment and freight will not be recovered.

A salesman engaged in international freight forwarding failed to contact the Egyptian agent for four consecutive days after the unrest in Egypt. She said that Continental Airlines refused to accept Egyptian goods from the 28th. Although the goods are received and delivered by sea as usual, if the situation is unstable and the goods cannot be cleared after arrival in Hong Kong, the high warehouse and container rents will cause serious losses to Egyptian shippers, and they are worried about whether the other party can pay in time.

The unrest in Egypt coincides with the Spring Festival in China. All the factories in the mainland are on holiday, and all the Egyptian goods are sold out. During Spring Festival travel rush, the freight industry was not greatly affected. Moreover, the industry also said that after the situation stabilizes, it is still optimistic about the Egyptian market.

Impact on China-Egypt trade

It is reported that by the end of 20 10, China's accumulated investment in Egypt has exceeded 500 million US dollars, and China has become an important investor and the third largest trading partner of Egypt. According to the statistics of China Customs, the trade volume between China and Egypt reached 6.96 billion US dollars in 20 10. Regarding the impact of the riots in Egypt on Sino-Egyptian trade, some experts pointed out that the current situation of the riots in Egypt is not very clear. If further turmoil occurs, it will damage the foreign investment environment in Egypt and will also affect China's investment in Egypt. Egypt is China's main trading partner in the Middle East. According to GAFI data, 65,438+0,092 Egyptian enterprises have invested and operated in Egypt. But for now, the Egyptian people's protests are mainly aimed at improving people's livelihood, and will not affect foreign-funded enterprises and foreign investors in the short term.