Keywords:: Euro economic development, foreign trade and economic cooperation
Firstly, the legal status of the euro and the stability of its guarantee framework.
How should we treat this monetary reform in more than a dozen industrial countries in Europe at the end of this century? In the world economic development at the beginning of the new millennium, will the euro play the role of a weak currency or a strong currency? When people talk about this issue, they often jump to conclusions from the instantaneous or short-term changes of the euro in the money market, and I think the basic point of exploring the answer to this question must first examine the stability of the legal status of the euro. In other words, we should look at it from a longer time period. It can be said that the euro has a legal and unshakable legal status since its birth, and the European Central Bank also has clear legal integrity and independence.
First of all, the euro is the product of a series of treaties of the European Council (namely, Maastricht Treaty of February 7, 199216-1July Amsterdam Treaty), which contains three important documents (Budget Stability and Growth Pact, Budget Stability and Growth Pact, Budget Stability and Growth Pact, and Budget Stability and Growth Pact). At that time, it stipulated five economic and financial standards that EU member States must meet when entering the single currency area, that is, inflation should not exceed 65,438+0.5% of the average of the lowest three member States; The budget deficit shall not exceed 3% of the country's gross national product in that year; The accumulated national debt does not exceed 60% of the country's gross national product in that year; The long-term interest rate shall not exceed 2% of the average of the three lowest member countries; The stability of national currency exchange rates within the prescribed floating range has not been questioned or shaken by today's oil shock. Therefore, it can be said that the stability of the euro value is determined by the policies constrained by the legal framework. It must be pointed out here that no matter from the historical and theoretical investigation of the establishment and start-up of the euro zone, or from the practical consideration of the economic development of EU countries, the EU will never allow a member state to deviate from or undermine the consensus reached through nearly 40 years of collective efforts because of its own selfish interests, nor will it allow the euro to depreciate to strive for limited promotion of exports and economic growth.
Secondly, it must be pointed out that the independence of the European Central Bank has not been questioned or shaken at all. The independence of the European Central Bank is clearly stipulated in Mayo: members of the European Central Bank, central banks of all member countries of the European Monetary Union and their decision-making bodies shall not seek or accept instructions from any European institutions, organizations, member governments and other institutions. In order to ensure that the central bank can implement policies independently and ensure its independence, the governments of member countries must also take corresponding measures and establish the necessary legal framework. At the same time, the Maastricht Treaty also prohibits the European Central Bank from financing the fiscal deficits of member governments. From the institutional framework, the European Central Bank consists of two levels: one is the central bank itself, which has the status of a legal person; Second, the European Central Bank system. Therefore, it is clearly stipulated in the Treaty of Amsterdam that the European Central Bank is an institution independent of member States and not subject to the supervision of governments. It has the right to formulate the European Union's monetary policy, control the interest rate and amount of the euro, and be responsible for the daily exchange rate management of the euro.
Obviously, the current weakening of the euro has not affected the above-mentioned legal status of the euro. There is reason to believe that the foundation of the euro as a strong currency has not wavered. In other words, the current weak performance of the euro in the market is only a normal performance that has been tested during its growth.
Second, the impact of the euro on the world economy.
The vertical investigation of the impact of the euro on the world economy can be carried out from the perspective of its impact on world trade, global investment and the world financial system, while this paper focuses on the horizontal investigation. For the sake of clarity, we are divided into three parts from a regional perspective: Europe (mainly the EU itself), the United States and developing countries in the Asia-Pacific region. For the world economy, 1999 is a turning point after the Asian crisis two years ago. Driven by the sustained strength of the American economy (with an annual growth rate of 3.7%), the Asian economy (including the Japanese economy, which has been sluggish since 1990) finally recovered, and the EU economy turned from weak to strong, showing an obvious recovery trend.
1, the role of the euro in promoting the economic development of EU countries
First of all, let's take a look at the general benefits of the introduction of the euro to the member countries of the euro zone. After the introduction of the euro as a single currency in the region, it will fundamentally eliminate the trade barriers caused by the different currencies of the member countries in the region, so that the EU can greatly enhance the overall linkage ability of its financial system, respond more effectively to the financial crisis and the impact of international speculators, and promote the healthy development of the economies of EU countries. Secondly, the single currency eliminates the exchange rate differences between countries, thus reducing the cost of financial transactions. Because the trade between member countries is changed from foreign trade to domestic trade, not only the procedures are simplified, but also the capital form conversion speed is accelerated, which not only saves the currency exchange cost, but also avoids the risk of currency fluctuation. The disappearance of exchange rate differences between different currencies has also effectively reduced commodity prices, relatively expanded the purchasing power of residents in member countries, and is conducive to stimulating economic growth. Third, the introduction of the euro is conducive to the improvement of the competitiveness of the EU's big banks. Due to the disappearance of the exchange rate, on the one hand, the income from currency exchange among member countries will no longer be possible, resulting in a decline in bank yields. On the other hand, because banks in the euro zone operate in the euro zone, the transparency of the prices of financial products and banking services is greatly improved, so that customers in the euro zone can go abroad and freely choose banks with excellent services and low prices, which makes the competition among banks in the EU more intense, which is obviously conducive to the merger and concentration of large banks in the EU and enables larger banks to compete with banks outside the euro zone.
Of course, the more important impact is reflected in the direct promotion of the economic development of EU countries. The economic development trend of the EU in recent years is obviously inseparable from a series of policies and measures adopted by various countries in recent years. For example, countries generally attach importance to scientific and technological progress and the development of knowledge economy, and take curbing inflation and stimulating consumption as the main goals of stabilizing economic development. However, a series of macro-control activities that meet the economic standards adopted by countries to launch the euro have played the most direct and crucial role. Without the incentive of the single currency target of the euro, all member countries will be unable to coordinate and deal with the thorny issues such as inflation, budget deficit, national debt, long-term interest rate and exchange rate, so the economic development of EU countries will certainly be out of the question. Therefore, in this sense, it can be said that the start of the euro has become a huge driving force for the economic development of the European Union.
2. The impact of the start of the euro on the American economy.
Since World War II, the American economy has been the locomotive of the world economy. After 10 years of growth, it still maintains the trend of high growth and low inflation. The returns of various financial markets are still very attractive, and the potential for sustained economic growth is remarkable. Judging from the current economic operation, the following main indicators are still good: First, the economic growth momentum is still strong. By June 2000, 65438+ 10, the American economy had been growing continuously for 1 15 months, and there was no periodic fluctuation. In addition, economic growth mainly depends on consumption expenditure and fixed capital investment of enterprises as the main driving force to expand domestic demand. Second, the inflation rate and unemployment rate should be controlled at a level compatible with stable development. In recent years, the inflation rate in the United States is generally below 2%, and the unemployment rate is below 4.5%, which is close to the lowest level in 30 years. Compared with other OECD countries, it is really enviable. Third, the contribution rate of knowledge economy has increased, and the stamina of economic development has increased. At present, the knowledge industry dominated by information technology has become the most dynamic industry in the United States and will probably lead the United States into the knowledge economy. Fourth, the American economy has invested abroad on a large scale, and the benefits of globalization have been shared a lot. Since 1990s, American foreign direct investment has reached an unprecedented scale, and according to incomplete statistics, it has exceeded 1 trillion dollars.
On the one hand, however, we should see that the American economy has gradually accumulated various unfavorable factors that prevent, restrain and damage this growth, such as the potential inflation risk, which cannot be underestimated, because this situation ultimately depends on the mutual strength contrast of labor market, wages, labor productivity, profits, unemployment rate and other factors, and these aspects are brewing conflicts; Another example is the stock market bubble in the American economy. For example, AOL's price-earnings ratio is as high as 233 times, which is always doubtful. The huge deficit in international trade (by the end of 1999, the deficit had accounted for about 2.8% of the GDP of the United States in that year) and other debts (1999, the household debt of the United States had reached 98% of the disposable income in that year) were all very serious problems. On the other hand, the central position of the dollar will soon be directly challenged by the euro. Many countries predict that there will eventually be a 4: 4: 2 world financial and monetary system (that is, US dollar: Euro: Japanese yen), which will greatly reduce the above-mentioned favorable factors of the US economy, but may aggravate the accumulation of unfavorable factors. Therefore, the impact of the euro on the American economy cannot be ignored.
3. The impact of the euro on the economies of developing countries in the Asia-Pacific region
The sustained growth of the world economy needs a variety of power sources, among which the contribution of developing countries in the Asia-Pacific region to the world economic growth is very important. According to the forecast of the International Monetary Fund, from 65438 to 0999, the economic growth rate of developing countries in the world can reach 3.5%, which is higher than 3.2% in the previous year. First of all, Asian countries have stepped out of the encirclement of the financial crisis and entered the track of rapid recovery. Among them, South Korea also has a 9 A. The growth rates of Singapore, Thailand, the Philippines and Malaysia are also between 3% and 5% respectively. China has also made its own contribution to the sustainable development of the world economy with a growth rate of 7.8%. Then, what impact will the introduction of the euro have on the future economic contribution of developing countries in the Asia-Pacific region?
First of all, the euro, as a trading currency and reserve currency, will provide great economic development opportunities for developing countries. The choice of international settlement currency and reserve currency by countries all over the world mainly depends on the relative size of the economies supported by the currency and its share in world trade. In the current global economy, the US dollar accounts for more than 60% of the world's foreign exchange reserves, and exports settled in US dollars account for 48%. Due to the lack of a currency that competes with the US dollar, international reserves and trade settlement have to rely mainly on the US dollar. In the total world trade, the EU (excluding intra-EU trade) is $65,438 +0.9 trillion, accounting for 34.3%, while the US is $65,438 +0.7 trillion, accounting for 18.3%. The former is much higher than the latter. After the introduction of the euro, central banks will adjust their foreign exchange reserves. It is predicted that after a period of time, the euro reserve will increase substantially, accounting for about 40%, and 30%-40% of world trade will be settled in euros. From this perspective, the euro will change the situation that the dollar monopolizes the global foreign exchange reserves.
Secondly, the introduction of the euro has enabled developing countries in the Asia-Pacific region to gain another important capital market and investment market. As one of the symbols of a country's sovereignty, currency is very important to the economic development of developing countries in the Asia-Pacific region. As an international investment currency, the introduction of the euro has enabled them to obtain another important fund-raising market and investment market, which is a very valuable market and capital resource. According to the data of 1998, the market value of bonds, stocks and bank assets issued by EU countries has exceeded US$ 27 trillion, exceeding the US capital market of US$ 23 trillion at that time. With the official launch of the euro, some American experts estimate that 5000-10 billion dollars of financial assets will be converted from dollars to euros, so that the global financial assets denominated in euros will reach 30%-40%, and the financial assets denominated in dollars will be reduced to 40%-50%. In terms of securities investment, the share of US dollar dropped from 76% of 198 1 to 40% at present, while the share of Euro increased from 13% to 37% in the same period. It can be seen that after the official launch of the euro, with the increase of the depth, breadth and liquidity of the euro capital market, the changes in the world financial market will be more encouraging.
Third, it will provide a demonstration effect for the reform of the global monetary system and the world financial system, thus providing an important guarantee for developing countries in the Asia-Pacific region to establish a new international economic order. Developing countries have gradually realized that a single country is not enough to fight against speculative capital, so they may imitate it with regional finance, which also means that there may be a trend to strengthen the regionalization of national currencies after the rise of the euro. For example, all ASEAN countries agree to change the payment in US dollars to the payment in member currencies, and consider establishing a central clearing bank to pay each other's debts to solve the currency conversion problem of member countries. This may develop into a monetary union, thus producing a new regional currency.
There may be many other aspects of the impact of the euro on the world financial system, but there is no doubt that the advent of the euro will definitely break the original international financial structure, promote the gradual establishment of a new world financial order, and provide a solid foundation for the pursuit and struggle of developing countries in the Asia-Pacific region to establish a new international economic order.
Third, the dual impact of the euro on China's foreign trade and economic development.
It is very important to study the influence of Euro on China's foreign trade and economic development, and thus on China's economic development.
1, Euro provides important business opportunities for China's economic development.
To explore the opportunities brought by the euro to China's economic development, we should pay special attention to China enterprises' entry into the EU and their external expansion in the EU region. On the one hand, from the perspective of China enterprises entering the EU for economic, trade, production and investment activities, firstly, the exchange rate advantage of RMB against Euro will expand China's trade surplus with the EU. As the future trend of the euro is a strong currency, China has a comparative advantage over the EU in exchange rate under the condition that the RMB exchange rate remains unchanged, which will make China's exports competitive among EU countries, so China's trade surplus with the EU will gradually expand. Secondly, in the long run, the use of the euro will reduce the complexity of settlement between China and Europe, save costs, reduce risks, expand trade, and make the long-term development planning of enterprises safer and more stable. Moreover, with the increase of employment and economic growth rate in the EU, the market capacity of euro member countries will also expand, which will greatly expand the breadth and depth of China's goods in the euro zone market. Third, the introduction of the euro is conducive to improving the structure of China's foreign exchange reserves. At present, of China's foreign exchange reserves154.7 billion US dollars (199965438+end of February), US dollars account for about 60%, Japanese yen accounts for about 13%, and European currencies dominated by German marks account for about 15%, which is really too dependent on US dollars. With the introduction of Euro, China can appropriately increase the proportion of Euro in foreign exchange reserves according to the change of currency stability and strength, so as to diversify its reserve assets, thus spreading risks and avoiding losses. Fourthly, the unification of European capital markets has facilitated China to raise funds. After the introduction of the euro, the euro capital market itself is a unified big market, especially the bond market will show the characteristics of low financial transaction cost, large capital market capacity and low interest rate policy. Especially after China's entry into WTO, China enterprises and financial circles can make full use of this market to issue European bonds and stocks and raise low-cost funds for enterprises.
On the other hand, from the perspective of the outward expansion of the EU's own enterprises, with the implementation of the Euro, the comprehensive strength of the EU and the international competitiveness of the EU economy will be improved, and it is possible for the EU to compete and compete with other countries in the Asia-Pacific region, including the China market. This is because the emergence of the euro will not immediately affect the industrial restructuring of the European Union, and its high welfare, high tax policies and high production costs are not problems that the euro can solve at one time. In addition, the euro cannot change the law of capital chasing profits. Therefore, at the same time of the current wave of merger of EU enterprises, in order to reduce costs and obtain greater profits, EU enterprises may accelerate the transfer of production lines to areas with low taxes, low welfare and low labor costs after the introduction of Euro, so the desire to explore the China market will be further enhanced. Even in the medium and long term, compared with the vast world market, the investment space in the euro zone is limited, and the capital investment in the euro zone is inevitable. Therefore, the sustained growth of China's economy and the continuous improvement of its investment environment, especially the development of the central and western regions, have created huge new demands for capital, technology and talents, which will directly affect the EU's investment in China. It can be predicted that if the euro gradually hardens, the EU will gain appreciation benefits, and then its investment in China and bank loans will continue to increase. Especially at the important moment of China's accession to the WTO, investment in China has become the strategic focus and strategic interest of the EU's foreign development. If you don't come to China, you will let others beat you to it and lose your strategic interests.
2. The negative impact of Euro on China's economic development can not be ignored.
After all, the euro is the currency of the European Union, and it was naturally launched to promote the economic interests and development of the European Union. Therefore, the above positive effects can only be achieved by the direct entry of China enterprises. However, on the other hand, the direct and indirect effects of the euro on China's economy can not be ignored. At present, this influence is mainly reflected in China's foreign trade, utilization of foreign capital and financial development.
First of all, due to the cancellation of the exchange rate in the euro zone countries, China's export enterprises to Europe will not be able to implement the differential price strategy based on exchange rate risk, so they will jointly bear the pressure of the EU to impose anti-dumping duties or reduce quotas. In addition, during the euro transition period, there are risks in euro lending and settlement. In addition, the protectionism of "tearing down the fence internally and building a wall externally" and the substitution effect of the eastward expansion of the euro zone will reduce the import of a large number of basic products, thus reducing the competitiveness of China's exports to Europe and increasing the difficulty of market entry. Finally, China's export enterprises will bear the high-cost risk of euro conversion, including various financial and business management systems, computer software updates and staff training costs. All these will have a negative impact on China's expansion of trade with Europe. Secondly, the EU is an important source of foreign investment for China. However, for a long time, the EU's foreign economic and trade activities tend to emphasize trade over investment, and its investment in the Asia-Pacific region, especially China, accounts for a small share of its foreign investment. By the end of July, 1998, the EU's direct investment in China had exceeded1500 million US dollars, ranking third only after Japan and the United States. So far, the total amount of EU investment agreements in China accounts for less than 6% of China's total foreign investment. In the near future, we should also see that the euro will not only promote the unification of European capital markets, but also enable the EU to attract more foreign capital to participate in its economic development. At the same time, the preferential policies for investment in underdeveloped areas in the euro zone are more fully reflected, which will attract some foreign capital from the EU to return. Thirdly, the competitive pressure of China's financial industry has increased: firstly, as the currency exchange business of commercial banks in the euro zone will all disappear, the exchange income in this region, which is an important source of income for China's banking industry, will no longer exist. Secondly, since all assets and debts of euro zone countries will be revalued in euro after the euro is launched, the potential exchange rate risk of assets and debts denominated in the currencies of EU countries in China will increase. For example, when switching pricing, it may bring losses of asset impairment or debt increase. Finally, due to China's accession to the WTO, China will face pressure from the European Union to fully open its financial markets such as securities, insurance, banks and trusts. In addition, banks in the euro zone may all adopt the universal banking model integrating financing, credit, insurance, investment and securities, and the competition is fierce, which undoubtedly increases the competitive pressure of China's financial industry.
In a word, we should pay enough attention to the various influences of the euro on China's economic development. Especially in the long run, the strength of the European Union will make China directly face another extremely powerful competitor besides the United States and Japan in the process of world economic globalization. We should strengthen the long-term follow-up and research on this influence.