The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced yesterday that the price of imported human albumin will be allowed to increase by 5% considering the increase of import tariffs and other factors. At the same time, in order to ensure the supply in remote areas, the price of human albumin sold in nine provinces (regions) such as Qinghai is allowed to rise by 5%.
Sun Liang, a biomedical industry researcher at Guotai Junan Securities Research Institute, said that the reason why the NDRC imposed the price ceiling was mainly due to the shortage of raw plasma supply.
Human albumin is an indispensable drug for the treatment of blood loss, trauma, plastic surgery, liver cirrhosis and other malignant diseases, especially in anti-tumor and immunotherapy. At present, it is an indispensable clinical variety and the best-selling drug. Its main raw material is human plasma.
On1October 26th this year, 65438, together with hundreds of other drugs, the National Development and Reform Commission lowered the highest retail price of human albumin, such as 10g:50ml human albumin injection, from the original highest retail price in 330 yuan to 259 yuan.
Since then, the contradiction between supply and demand of human albumin has become prominent. On February 2, the National Development and Reform Commission immediately stated that all localities can set the temporary retail price of human albumin in this province according to the situation. Since March, prices in various places have gradually picked up. Before March and April this year, human albumin was sold in 280 yuan/bottle, and it was close to 330 yuan/bottle in May, but the demand was still in short supply.
Analysts believe that the price limit of human albumin has little impact on related companies. The semi-annual report shows that Hualan Bio (002007) and Tiantan Bio (600 16 1), listed companies in the blood products industry, are all affected by the tight supply of raw plasma. The sales revenue of Hualan Bio decreased by 2.9% in the first half of the year, and the sales revenue of Tiantan Bio-blood products decreased by 36.28%.
However, the shortage of plasma supply is not all bad for these companies. The supply of raw materials is tight, which reduces the production of plasma and albumin on the one hand; On the other hand, it is beneficial to maintain the high price of albumin, the heavy sales of non-albumin products and the overall gross profit margin. Relevant data show that the gross profit margin of Hualan biological blood products reached 47.80% and Tiantan biological blood products reached 27.75% in the first half of 2007.
Zhang Mingfang, an analyst at China Merchants Securities, believes that blood products are a resource-based industry and depend on the development of plasma sources. At present, the resource redistribution of the whole plasma station is entering the second stage of market acquisition. For example, with the development of Chongqing plasma resources by the wholly-owned Chongqing subsidiary, Hualan Bio will integrate the plasma supply and production of Chongqing and Suzhou subsidiaries in the future, and will gradually complete the reconstruction and expansion of the following eight plasma stations. It is estimated that the company's plasma input and output will increase steadily in 2008, and Suzhou subsidiary will gradually get rid of the bottleneck of plasma supply.
Yi Tuo, Chongqing is the only blood product manufacturer in Chongqing, which owns human albumin injection and intravenous injection.
Injection of human immunoglobulin (pH4), intravenous injection of human immunoglobulin (pH4) freeze-dried powder injection, human immunization.
Globulin injection and human hepatitis B immunoglobulin injection are five batches of products.
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As an important economic center in southwest China, Chongqing ranks first among the four municipalities directly under the central government in China in terms of total area and population, and its economic aggregate has increased.
The long-term prospect is promising, and it is one of the areas where the market consumption of blood products will grow rapidly in the future; On the other hand, the pulp in Chongqing
The supply advantage is obvious. As the largest and most populous municipality directly under the central government in the world, its GDP in 2005 was 306.98 billion people.
Currency accounts for only 1. 14% of the country, ranking 23rd, with a population of 3 1442300. The population of the main urban area is only 3 1000, and that of the rural area is only 3 100.
The proportion is as high as 6 1.7%, so it can be said that the development prospect of pulp source is good, which will alleviate the company's current situation to some extent.
Facing the problem of shortage of pulp source.
As a leading enterprise and industry leader, the acquisition of the company will accelerate the process of industry integration: due to
Since 2004, the industry supervision has been strengthened day by day, and the operating costs of small and medium-sized blood products enterprises have increased greatly, and at the same time they are facing
There is a shortage of plasma sources in China. Although the price of blood products has been rising all the way, by the end of 2006, there were 34 blood companies in China.
Liquid product enterprises really have slurry to invest in, and there are less than 25 enterprises in the normal production stage. With the implementation of a new round of GMP,
With the arrival of the transformation and the advancement of the restructuring process of the single pulp collection station, small and medium-sized blood products enterprises stopped production and merged in 2007-2008.
The pressure is very great, and it is in line with the law of market development for leading enterprises to become bigger and stronger through mergers and acquisitions.
It is also in line with the intention of current national supervision.
The acquisition can't bring substantial profits to the company in the short term, and it is expected that benefits will only be generated after 2009.
Therefore, we maintain the original profit forecast of 0.72 yuan in 2007, 0.0 yuan in 20081yuan in 2008 and 0.32 yuan in 2009.
Yuan, maintain the recommended rating.