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Analysis of the development trend of Douyin in 2020

2018 was the year when Douyin short videos exploded. During this year, Douyin ushered in a milestone upgrade. Now, Douyin has completed another year of its journey.

Looking at the entire year of 2019, although the development speed of short videos has slowed down significantly, it is more benign. It can even be said that the major trends emerging in 2019 are also the direction of overall development in the next few years.

So what are the development characteristics of Douyin short videos in 2019, and what new trends will there be in 2020?

In 2019, the growth rate of Douyin content creation slowed down significantly, but the growth order was more benign. Users’ consumption of short video content has upgraded, shifting from entertainment demands to multi-dimensional demands such as acquiring knowledge and realizing self-worth.

In 2020, it is foreseeable that the content side will bloom even more, and more refined and specialized content fields will appear.

Professional knowledge accounts are currently small in size. As the platform increases its support for long video content and users’ diverse content consumption needs, there is a greater chance of becoming popular; in addition, the content features are obvious , accounts that are highly professional and focus on a certain vertical segmentation category still have great potential. In addition, some extremely segmented fields have a small population base, but are highly sticky, have good monetization potential, and have relatively high room for “exiting”.

"Growing grass and bringing goods" accounts have been popular since 2018, but the current hot-selling products are still concentrated in a few fields. The market is not only far from enough for the economic development of men, but also for women. The supply side of the economy is also relatively narrow. There is still a lot of room for development among the three parties of "buying", "selling" and "materials".

The next three tracks are already quite crowded. If you are not fully prepared, it is recommended not to enter easily. They are:

1. Comedy/drama, music and dance, little brother, little sister type, the chance of becoming famous is reduced;

2. Fashion, emotion, beauty content type, It is already at the "high limit" in the heat. Although some celebrities in this content type have increased their followers significantly in 2019, the internal differentiation is relatively serious, and a considerable proportion of celebrities have seriously lost followers;

3. Maternal and infant, cute baby and handmade creative categories, The growth in 2019 is relatively weaker than that of hot categories, and the performance of the entire content echelon tends to be stable. Without better creativity and character design, it will be very difficult to become popular in a short period of time.

On the Douyin platform, the number of celebrities who have opened product showcases has exceeded 50%. Among them, the tail accounts with 10-300,000 followers account for the largest proportion (41%). Judging from the frequency of videos released by celebrities carrying goods, they are more "diligent" than the overall performance of platform celebrities, with the number of videos posted per week being 3.9. Judging from the content type of the influencers who bring goods, fashion, beauty and unboxing celebrities perform best in bringing goods. The former is more efficient as a single influencer, while the latter has a stronger overall force in bringing goods.

In the past, short videos were instrumental products for consumer entertainment, but from the future trend, short videos are becoming infrastructure. There is no doubt that from domestic to overseas, from the first and second tiers to the third and fourth tiers, the changes in the industry chains set off by short videos are still continuing, the wind continues to blow, and the competition is far from over. Overall, the short video industry structure is gradually becoming stable. The structure of two superpowers and multiple superpowers is difficult to shake for the time being, but competition based on platform commercialization has just begun.

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