Eurasia Group washed the dishes once.
In early trading, Eurasia Group opened higher and went lower, once falling more than 5%, and then quickly rose. I didn't read the article then, and now it's 7%. No accident, but also the daily limit.
This is a typical dish washing. The question is, have you been eliminated
How to judge beforehand if you know it's washing dishes? If you know its value, you won't get off easily. At 7 o'clock in the morning, I wrote these words on the bed:
Who knows that when I finished writing, I met the dishwashing crash of Eurasia Group, so I wrote these words:
High-quality assets are here, and I am not afraid that your funds will not come to lift the sedan chair. The following was written at 10: 30, when Eurasia Group was still in decline:
Interested in Eurasia Group, you can refer to my following article, and I will talk about the main points here:
First of all: Eurasia Group has a large number of self-owned properties to be discovered. These assets are seriously underestimated by accounting methods.
Secondly, the profitability of Eurasia Group has been adjusted by financial methods, which simply cannot reflect the company's due profitability.
Third, the chairman of the company has increased his holdings for ten years, reaching more than 130 times. Now he has reached retirement age and has a strong impulse to raise the stock price.
Fourth, in the context of the sinking of Internet retail channels, the value of traditional department store retail has yet to be explored, which is a very obvious value depression.
Interested parties can read the following articles:
20 19 12:
Re-evaluation of investment value of Eurasia Group: Do you think people are really stupid because the chairman has bought his own shares for ten years in a row?
65438+20201October:
Analysis of Investment Value of Eurasia Group: Restoring a Real Business Empire!
Li Jiaqi's sale of golden ham increased its market value by 500 million, while Eurasia Group hid its profit by 650 million. Did you succeed?
July 2, 2020:
Two daily limit in three weeks: What happened to this holding stock?
Next, talk about the space of Yonghui Supermarket.
Fresh retail is the golden track.
I have written dozens of articles about fresh retail. The theme of today's article is the future market value space of Yonghui Supermarket.
At present, the A-share market gives a very high valuation to consumer stocks, but turns a blind eye to the retail industry closely related to consumption, which is really strange.
It's not surprising to say it, because all the people in China are brought to the rhythm by Father Ma, thinking that only the Internet is the future, just like you can eat and sleep online in the future.
In developed countries, Internet retailing is not much better than physical sales. China's Internet retail card is at a good time, that is, the efficiency of domestic entity sales is still very low, and the Internet has begun to spread. There is no expansion of retail here, only fresh retail.
Fresh retail is the golden track.
First of all, the scale of fresh retail is very large, and the scale is increasing day by day.
Secondly, fresh consumption is just needed, and fresh retail has the characteristics of high frequency.
Third, fresh food is not easy to preserve, the shelf life is short, and the customer unit price is not high.
Fourth, the loss of fresh sales is relatively high. Many people have to touch, pinch and pinch fruit several times. Strangely, it doesn't rot.
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Fifth, fresh food is a non-standardized commodity, which varies greatly among individuals, which also means that it is difficult to be satisfied if you don't choose it yourself.
The above characteristics determine that fresh consumption needs physical scenes, while Internet sales have no advantage.
Can e-commerce let us choose? I can't. Then fresh e-commerce can only carry out pretreatment and fine packaging to ensure quality: the cost has increased.
Then the single purchase amount is not high, but you have to deliver it to your door: the freight is very high.
Then it needs to be delivered immediately, and it will deteriorate at the back: the freight is more expensive.
If the cost of e-commerce is the same as that of supermarkets, then if you want to make a profit, you must sell it more expensive. Higher cost will reduce demand, and the key to the success of e-commerce is differentiated competition, which provides services for some customers who are not sensitive to price with differentiated services, and this is only a niche market.
There is no competition for e-commerce in the main sales, and the competition for fresh retail in the future will mainly focus on the giants of physical sales. At present, the leading listed companies selling fresh food are mainly Yonghui Supermarket and Jiajiayue.
Supermarket fresh retail space is huge.
Some people say that when people's living standards in China improve, they will face consumption upgrading, and then they will buy fresh food online: quality first, price second.
But what if I give you a second choice, which has both quality and benefits?
Where are the main scenes of China people's fresh consumption at present?
The vegetable market is still the mainstream.
What are the advantages of the vegetable market?
First, vegetable prices are cheaper.
Second, you can choose.
The third is close to home.
What are the disadvantages of the vegetable market?
First, the sanitary conditions are not good, dirty and messy.
Second, the business hours are relatively short, and it closes after dark.
Third, the quality can't be guaranteed: it's your bad luck to buy bad ones.
Where is the main upgrade of our consumption?
First, pay more attention to quality.
Second, pay more attention to the brand.
Both fresh supermarkets and fresh e-commerce companies have these two points. How do the two compare?
The cost of fresh supermarkets is lower;
The live experience of fresh supermarket is better;
If it is matched with the surrounding shopping places, the experience of fresh shopping is stronger.
Where is the market value space of Yonghui Supermarket?
Fresh retail is also retail, and it is a typical retail. Retail industry has the characteristics of economies of scale. The larger the scale, the better the cost control, and the greater its operating advantages.
Yonghui Supermarket and Jiajiayue already have such a leading edge, and it is only a matter of time before their market share will increase in the future.
The fresh retail market is about 5 trillion, and it is still growing. What will be the market share of fresh retail giants in the future? I think it will reach at least 10% or even 20%.
Market share 10% (excluding market growth), annual fresh sales reached 500 billion yuan. Yonghui Supermarket, on the other hand, sells other goods through fresh food, with a ratio of about 1: 1, which means that its annual sales will reach 1 trillion yuan.
Yonghui Supermarket revealed at this year's shareholders' meeting that the net profit rate target for the next few years is 6%, which is basically consistent with my previous estimate: based on 6%, it will earn at least 60 billion yuan a year, and the market value will reach 2 trillion yuan according to the valuation of American retail stocks.
Here are some things to explain:
The first is that the scale of fresh retail is still growing.
Secondly, the market share of Yonghui Supermarket is likely to be higher than 10% (refer to the development of Fujian and Chongqing).
Third, the future net profit rate is likely to be less than 6% (if the scale is large enough, its management cost will also increase).
In this way, we still calculate by 654.38+0.8 trillion, and the current market value is only 94 billion.
Pruning red maple potted plants is not difficult. First of all, in front of the pot, you can trim off the disorderly growth of side branches, such as some t