Storage of gold
In 2006, the global gold mining was about10.5 million tons, with an annual growth rate of about 2%. At present, the proven gold resources in the world are 89,000 tons, with a reserve base of 77,000 tons and a reserve of 48,000 tons. The static guarantee years of gold reserves and reserve base are 19 years and 39 years respectively.
South Africa accounts for 50% of the world's proven gold resources and reserves, accounting for 38% of the world's reserves; The United States accounts for 12% of the world's proven resources, 8% of the world's reserve base, and 12% of the world's reserves. In addition to South Africa and the United States, the main gold resources are Russia, Uzbekistan, Australia, Canada and Brazil. Among more than 80 gold producers in the world, America accounts for 33% of the global output (including Latin America 12%, Canada 7% and the United States14%); Africa accounts for 28% (including South Africa 22%); 29% in Asia-Pacific region (including Australian 13% and China 7%).
China has discovered 7 148 gold deposits and proved 232 gold deposits, including 573 rock gold deposits, 456 placer gold deposits and 204 associated gold deposits. According to the geological conditions of gold mineralization in China, the potential reserves are predicted to be1.5000 tons. All provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions except Chongqing have proven resources. The eastern part is a region where proven gold resources/reserves are relatively concentrated. Among them, Shandong has the highest rock gold reserves, accounting for 567 tons as of 1998, followed by Shaanxi (205 tons), Henan (203 tons) and Guizhou (149 tons).
(2) the output of gold
The supply of the world gold market mainly includes the following aspects: (1) the new gold production in the world gold-producing countries; Gold sold by the countries of the former Soviet Union to the world market; Regenerated gold; Some national official institutions, such as the central bank's gold reserve, the International Monetary Fund and private individuals sell gold.
1, production of mineral gold
Mineral gold production is the main source of gold supply. In the past ten years, the total amount of mineral gold in the world has not changed much, basically staying at around 2500 tons, but the regional output has changed greatly. The gold production in Africa, North America and Oceania showed a downward trend, while that in Latin America and Asia gradually increased. Countries with an annual output of over 65,438+000 tons include South Africa, Australia, USA, China, Peru, Russian Federation, Indonesia and Canada.
In 2006, the world gold output was 247 1. 1 ton. Compared with 2005, the world gold mine output in 2006 decreased by 3%, the lowest level since 10. In 2006, China's gold output was 240.08 tons, up by 7. 15% year-on-year, making it the third largest gold producer in the world.
Table 1: 1996-2006 The output and distribution of mineral gold in the world's continents (unit: tons) p > 0.9961.996538+0.99638+0.000638+0.0065640.6664
Source: Gold Yearbook 2007.
Table 2: 1996-2006 mineral gold output of major gold producing countries (unit: tons) country1997199819920206548+020006 south africa.5006.50000000506
Source: Gold Yearbook 2007.
In recent five years, China's gold production has increased substantially. China's gold production mainly comes from three aspects: mineral gold of gold enterprises, gold of non-ferrous metal smelting enterprises and gold of gold smelting enterprises.
China's gold production is mainly concentrated in Shandong, Henan, Fujian, Liaoning and Shaanxi. In 2005, the total output of these areas accounted for 58.3% of the national gold output. Shandong province, with the largest output, accounts for 25. 18% of the national output.
2. Production of recycled gold
Recycled gold refers to gold re-refined by recycling old jewelry and other gold-containing products. The output of recycled gold is positively related to the price of gold.
The output of recycled gold mainly comes from areas with high gold consumption in manufacturing, such as the Indian subcontinent, North America, Europe and Asia, and it is the main producing area of recycled gold. In 2005, the world output of recycled gold was 886. 1 ton, an increase of 1.5% over 2004. Among them, the output of regenerated gold in Indian subcontinent decreased by 12%, while that in Europe increased by 14%. The former reason may be that Indian consumers' demand for gold is rigid, and the price of gold has risen within a certain range, so they are still reluctant to sell old gold jewelry. The latter is because the price of gold has risen and the supply of jewelry has increased. In 2006, the world output of recycled gold was 1 107.6 tons, an increase of 25% over 2005.
Table 3: 1996-2006 world output of processed and recycled gold and its distribution in various continents (unit: tons) Our world+0996199190538+09066+8006.5000808086
Source: Gold Yearbook 2007.
Table 4: 1996-2006 Output of processing reclaimed gold in major countries (unit: tons) Country19971998199200020012002003200420052006 India 7.094.080.0 Saudi Arabia 93.060.361.263.060.867.088.094.084.092+033.1Egypt29.730.029.100898989887
Source: Gold Yearbook 2007.
3. Official institutions sell gold
The sale of gold by central banks is an important part of the gold market supply. The central bank is the largest gold holder in the world. 1969 The official gold reserve was 36,458 tons, accounting for 42.6% of the total surface gold stock at that time. By 1998, the official gold reserve is about 34,000 tons, accounting for 24. 1% of the total mined gold stock. According to the current production capacity, this is equivalent to the world gold mineral output 13. Because the main use of gold has gradually changed from an important reserve asset to a metal raw material for jewelry production, either to improve the balance of payments or to curb the international gold price, the central bank's gold reserves have declined greatly in absolute and relative quantities in the past 30 years, and the decline in quantity mainly depends on the sale of gold reserves in the gold market. For example, the large-scale selling by the Bank of England, the Swiss National Bank and the International Monetary Fund to reduce gold reserves has become the main reason for the recent decline in gold prices in the international gold market.
In 2006, the official net sales of gold was 328 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 565,438+0%. This overall sharp decline is due to the sharp decrease in the amount of gold sold by CBGA signatories and the shift to net purchases by countries in other regions.
Table 5: Official net gold sales in 2006-0996 (in tons)1996199719981992000200120020052006438.
Source: Gold Yearbook 2007.
(3) the production cost of gold
The production cost of gold affects the supply of gold. When the price of gold remains unchanged, the rising cost of gold production will reduce the profits of production enterprises. If the cost rises too fast, the enterprise can't transfer the cost, which leads to the loss of the enterprise, and the enterprise will reduce the gold production.
In all major gold producing countries, the cost of cash in dollar terms is rising. In 2006, the average annual cash cost per ounce in the world increased by $45 compared with the previous year, increasing by 17% year-on-year, reaching $3 17/ounce, and the total cost (including depreciation) rose sharply to $40 1 ounce. Depreciation expense increased by 65,438+06 USD/oz, reaching 84 USD/oz. North America saw the largest increase in production costs, with the cash cost in the United States soaring by $80 per ounce, while Canada rose by $66 per ounce. Cost inflation occurred more in South Africa, with an average annual increase of $65,438+09 per ounce.
Table 6: Changes in production costs of major gold-producing countries over the years (unit: USD/oz)19961992000200120022003200420052006 South Africa cash cost3043032482366 Kloc-0/9431539 5415459 Australian cash expenses 292256204207190175187225264282327 Total expenses 36365438 327. Total cost of 9822 1268 is 30529325125 52219229279263294348 world cash expense 268250207 19665438. Total cost of 438+07 is 3273152612572402282327731339401
Source: Gold Yearbook 2007.
Table 7: Ranked output (ton) of 15 companies with the largest gold output in the world in 20062005200 13 Balick and Canada 169.8268.82.
1 Newmont USA199.7184.932 Angra Ashanti Gold South Africa191.8175.344 Jintian South Africa130.6438+
* Due to statistical differences, China Company is not included.
* * Estimated value
Source: company report; GFMS
Source: GFMS Gold Yearbook 2007.
There are three main characteristics of gold supply in the gold market. The first is regular supply, which comes from the major gold producing countries in the world, and this supply is stable. The second is induced supply, which is caused by other factors, mainly because the rising price of gold makes gold hoarders sell at a profit, or accelerates the mining of gold mines. The third is to regulate supply, which is a staged irregular supply. If oil-producing countries are depressed by oil prices, they will sell some gold because of insufficient income.
Table 8: 1996-2006 world gold supply (unit: tons)1996199819920002001200200320042005 mineral gold in 2006. 83229-32333- Total supply is 35234217413942004017389440004181384465438.
Source: Golden Yearbook 2007, * is an estimate.