Tesla cut the price as scheduled, and the updated price of Model 3 standard was 2,765,438+0.55 million.
This is similar to Che Jujun's prediction. See "Model 3 price increase?" Not really! The logic of 303550 yuan is very simple. At that time, it was said that the official index price would be reduced to 299,800 yuan, but it was reduced to 29 1800 yuan, which was even more fierce.
So, what is the logic of its price reduction?
First of all, I discovered the secret of Model 3 price reduction.
Ancient Chinese used "grass snake gray line, crouching thousands of miles" to describe the secretive action, and there are still clues.
However, Tesla's price reduction is completely inapplicable. Its management has repeatedly stressed that we are as simple as science and engineering men, and pricing is only composed of cost and reasonable profit. There is no scheming at all.
Che Jujun will listen to it, and thus calculate the price insider of the continuation version of the Model 3 standard.
According to Tesla's 20 19 financial report, the gross profit margin of Model 3 is 25.5%. It is generally believed in the industry that the domestic Model 3 will be higher, about 30%. We set its gross profit margin at 30% in the initial stage of domestic production, and set it at 35% when it was officially lowered in April-after all, domestic production is advancing rapidly.
The other two values are fixed: the official reference price and the VAT rate.
Then, it is easy for us to reverse the cost of updating the Model 3 standard: 208,000 in the initial stage and 654.38+056,000 in the recent stage. It is equivalent to a drop of 25% in half a year. Beautiful! You know, the car companies with the worst cost in China only dare to drop about 20% a year.
This is the same as building a factory/putting it into production/delivering it within one year. Only Tesla can do it.
Looking at the gross profit, it has been maintained at around 654.38+10,000 yuan for half a year. Considering that domestic car companies have worked hard to earn only a few thousand dollars for a car, it is simply not a world. Moreover, Tesla has made unprecedented profits for three consecutive quarters. With the production of cobalt-free batteries and Model Y, the printing (tu) banknote (sha) mode has been started.
From this point of view, only it can play the price reduction game.
But that is not the point.
The point is, did you find out? Its two major price cuts (the first and third price cuts were almost unsuccessful) all have one thing in common: each time it was reduced by 32,000 yuan.
At the beginning, it was not that Tesla was a typical science and engineering man's thinking. Even the price reduction was so straightforward, and he still clung to 32,000. Then, Che Jujun is willing to bet on a pack of spicy strips: its next price reduction (probably before July 22nd) will still be 32,000 yuan.
If so, what will we see in two months?
The official index price of Model 3 standard continuation version may drop to 259,800, and the actual price after subsidy is 239,550. Seeing this price, Che Jujun couldn't help hearing Li Jiaqi's voice: OMG, buy it, buy it. 240 thousand, what else to buy, accord sharp mix? S60 T3 What else to buy? Poor workmanship? Poor service? Can be forgiven.
When someone laughs, someone cries. who is it?
Second, bear the brunt: new forces and all-electric vehicles?
Li Xiang said indignantly: Tesla's price reduction is a disaster. He Xiaopeng said happily: God bless arrival. Let's put aside the acting skills of the big shots and look at the real sales figures.
Except for a few months, Tesla's sales volume was lower than that of its competitors, and it was above NXW (Weilai, Tucki and Weimar) in the past 20 19 years. Especially after February this year, it soared out of control and basically parted ways with the three new forces.
Of course, the node was put into production in Shanghai factory this year 1 month.
Although the workmanship is the worst, although the high-speed cruising range in winter is only 250km, despite the farce of mixing HW2.5 and HW3.0, it still cannot stop the rhythm of selling five cars a day. One logic is that other new forces have avoided the shortcomings of Tesla, which does not mean that they can have the advantages of Tesla. In the foreseeable future, Tesla's battery management and autonomous driving technology will be a Mount Everest.
It can be described as: the abuse is very fierce, and the sales volume has risen steadily.
From new power to all-electric vehicles. This is the sales ranking of all electric vehicles in China market in the first quarter. The sales volume of Model 3 is equal to the sum of the second, third and fourth places, one more is lost.
Its proud rivals are BYD, aiming at Guangzhou Automobile, the market leader, Weilai, whose products are definitely better than Tesla, Weimar, the world's first profitable new car company, and SAIC, the world's top 500.
Let's just say that Model 3 accounts for 30% of the market share of electric vehicles in China.
Look at the map, it's obvious. Model 3 helped Tesla win the sales champion of 15 provinces in one fell swoop, including the formidable three northeastern provinces of electric vehicles. It also reflects from the side that the cold resistance of its battery has been recognized by the market.
Surprisingly, the landing price of Model 3 exceeds 300,000, but it still stands out in the underdeveloped central and western regions. We can see that it is the champion of electric vehicles in Sichuan, Chongqing, Hubei, Hunan and Shaanxi, and even Ningxia is no exception.
This kind of high-end goods that have crossed the income gap and reached national popularity seems to be Tesla except Apple.
Third, the stakes are high: luxury brands and all cars?
Do you think Tesla is satisfied to be the boss of the electric vehicle industry? Not exactly.
It also wants to kill the luxury car. As shown above, the sales volume of BMW 3 Series in 20 19 is far above Model 3. However, this year 1 month, Model 3 is made in China, and the situation is different. Under the epidemic in February, Model 3 slightly surpassed Series 3；; When it was difficult for most car companies to return to work in March, Model 3 had already taken off over Series 3.
This is a representative contrast. Because Series 3 is the representative of BBA sales and performance. Winning Series 3 indicates that Model 3 can win all BBA products within 400,000.
Regarding the sense of driving, a KOL commented on Weibo:
"When switching between Model 3 and Axis 325, I want to tell you that 325 is at most 30% of Model 3 in terms of driving pleasure and control. There is also the Model 3 that I swear every day, and the taste makes me sick. "
To tell the truth, Che Jujun couldn't tell whether the teacher was particularly black or boastful, but his meaning was clear: Model 3 was more than three times more fun to drive than Series 3.
Of course, you will say that this is the third generation series with the worst dynamic performance.
But how good can Grade C and A4L be? One is touching quality, and the other is the forerunner of the Millennium. Take Mercedes-Benz for example. Eight recalls in the first four months. The most frightening thing is that there was news of "recalling vehicles again" before. It is common to install all kinds of wires. The workmanship is as bad as Tesla's, but it feels like driving ... In the words of a car owner, a Mercedes-Benz within 500,000 is a sample.
Those who destroy the six countries are also six countries, not Qin.
This is the ranking of car sales in China in March. In terms of the most accurate number of insurance, Model 3 has ranked eighth, even surpassing car champion Santana and compact king Yinglang.
What does this mean? Please take a deep breath before looking down.
This means that Model 3 is the only electric car with the top ten sales volume, the only car with a price of more than 200,000, the only non-joint venture car, the only car with a mass production of only three months, the only car with a year-on-year increase of more than two digits, the only car with a delivery number far exceeding the reported number, the only car without a 4S shop, and the only car that can be returned within 7 days/1600 km. ......
Elon Musk has repeatedly stressed that Tesla's rivals are all fuel vehicles.
Besides, have you thought about it? This is just the performance of the next version (or beggar version) of a Tesla model. What if the extended version of Model 3 is also reduced in price? Is the performance version also available?
So who will be affected? The answer is: everyone.
Fourth, the car companies: the killing game has just begun.
Che Jujun's news is that the extended version of the official target price of 366,550 yuan will be put into production in June, and the performance version of 4 1.98 million will be put into production at the end of the year. It is certain that they will reduce the price.
There will be at least two more price cuts. The following are irresponsible predictions:
In the first wave, at the end of June, the official index price of Model 3 extended version will drop by 68,000 to 298,550, and the state subsidy will be successfully obtained, with the actual selling price of 278,300. At the same time, the official index price of the standard renewal version dropped to 259,800, and the subsidy price was 239,550. Tesla set a profit record in the second quarter.
Key points: the extended version is within 280,000, and the extended version is within 240,000.
In the second wave, in the fourth quarter, the official index price of Model 3 performance version will drop by 65.438+0.2 million, the marked price will be 299.8 million, minus the subsidy of 20.25 million, and the actual car price will be 279.55 million. At the same time, the long sequel continued to drop by 32,000, and the actual price was 246,300; After the localization rate was 65,438+0,000%, the standard edition was reduced to 207,550.
Key points: the performance version is less than 280 thousand, the long continuation version is 240 thousand, and the standard continuation version is only in its early 200 thousand.
Some people say: Are you crazy? Performance degradation 1.2 million? Yes, Tesla has always been so crazy, otherwise? 20 18 1 1 When booking the car in China, the price was 693,000 yuan; After 4 months, it dropped by 6.5438+0.3 million when picking up the car; After another year, it decreased by 6.5438+0.4 million. Minus another 8 months1.2000. Is it a daily operation?
The general direction is also supported: cobalt-free batteries with lower cost, localization rate 100%, bargaining power under large sales volume, and the space for profit (ge) and profit (jiu) that Model Y must make after it is made in China.
Ok, let's imagine with trembling: What will happen if the three models of Model 3 are sold for 200,000, 240,000 and 280,000 respectively at the end of this year?
The dimension reduction of the 200,000 standard version will hit all joint venture vehicles, and it is increasingly difficult for independent brands to cross the ceiling of 1.5 million. The long sequel of 240,000 directly hits all luxury cars within 400,000, with 30% off for Leopard and 30% off for BBA. The performance version of 280,000 is responsible for destroying the high-end luxury cars whose sales are getting colder, and the traditional luxury cars of 40- 1 10,000 are hard to match.
The actual battery life is 500 kilometers and the acceleration is 3.4 seconds. As long as it is 280,000, will the most determined black people be moved?
"The Model 3 performance version is the best car I have ever driven, and the only thing that can be compared is 9 1 1." This is one of the first car owners interviewed by Che Jujun in Beijing in March 2065438+2009 who mentioned the performance of Model 3. Of course, he paid more than 600 thousand with the purchase tax or something, and his works were extremely touching.
At one time, it was just a Model 3 car, which once again subverted the entire China automobile market. There are also Model Y and Model C (Che Jujun's own name, meaning China /Cheap/C, the final name is subject to the official), which are special cars sold only in the China market.
Model Y will harvest SUV enthusiasts, focusing on Weilai ES6, Skyline ME7 and Aichi U5, as well as GAC AION LX and BYD Tang EV in the traditional camp, as well as fuel-powered SUVs of various car companies. This list can be very long.
Type C is expected to be 65,438+0.5-0.2 million, which is a perfect connection with Type 3. Direct face-to-face hard bars include, but are not limited to: Geometry A, Qin EV, BAIC EU, G3, Weimar EX5, and fuel vehicles of various automobile enterprises. This list can also be very long.
Therefore, this time, the price of the 35 1 model is reduced, but the dragon slayer Elon Musk has just been unsheathed, far from being hacked. Of course, it won't be too far from "burying a million bodies and bleeding". Everyone should enter the first-level response.
A self-owned brand executive recently said in Weibo: Tesla's cards are finished, so it's our turn to play. The acceleration, endurance and charging speed of our new car have exceeded, which will help drive by going up one flight of stairs!
Amitabha, have mercy.
Jeju tubercle
So nobody can beat Tesla? Is it really Dong Fangbubai? Is Model 3 a scared embroidery needle? Is there no peace in the rivers and lakes since then?
Neither will it. Both novels and history tell us that it is he who defeats the hero.
First of all, from the perspective of human nature, Tesla, as a dragon slayer, is just and has an initial heart during the offensive period. But once he kills the traditional car company, he will sit in the dragon's treasure cave, look at the gold and silver jewelry on the ground and listen to the cheers of everyone outside the cave, and he will also grow dragon horns and scales.
The initial deterioration can also be seen from its sales team. High pressure and low human nature lead to an increase in sales turnover rate and user dispute rate. Such morale is problematic to cope with large-scale rapid expansion.
Secondly, from the management point of view, elon musk has regarded Tesla as its home, always glorious and always lost. This is different from apples. No matter how dictatorial Jobs was, at least Cook survived. Although it is not satisfactory, it can keep the apple alive. But one day, what happened to elon musk? Is Tesla still that Tesla?
Not alarmist, just when Tesla China announced the official downgrade of Model 3, Elon Musk turned his face on Twitter: one minute he said he was selling all his possessions, the next minute he criticized the government's isolation as Nazism, the next minute he lamented that it was snowing in Texas, and the next minute he wailed that his girlfriend was angry with him ... The most terrible thing was that he complained that his Tesla share price was too high.
I hope he smokes less, which is good for himself and the whole world.
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.