In June165438+1October 10, the photovoltaic leader Tongwei closed up 33.56 yuan/share, and its share price reached a record high. Behind this is its huge silicon material order, which will be its performance support in the next few years.
Photovoltaic industry is a high-speed track, with an average annual growth rate of 35% in the last five years. The compound annual growth rate of Tongwei shares in the past four years has reached 44.35%, which is higher than the photovoltaic track that has been growing at a high speed. This year's momentum is particularly fierce. Under the policy inclination of high growth expectations, more and more capital began to run away and bet on photovoltaic tracks, and the stock price tripled during the year.
20 16 Tongwei shares officially entered the photovoltaic industry after acquiring Hefei Tongwei and Yongxiang shares, but now it is already a "silicon brother". Looking through the financial report, it is found that the high overlap between Tongwei's customers and suppliers may reveal the secret of its high growth.
Super big order in hand
Recently, Tongwei shares won another large polysilicon order.
165438+1October 6, recently, Jingke Energy and its subsidiary, Sichuan Jingke, signed the "polysilicon purchase and sale framework agreement" with the subsidiaries of Tongwei Co., Ltd., intending to purchase 93,000 tons of polysilicon products from the company, and it is estimated that the total net profit will be about 2.5 billion yuan. This is the third silicon material supply cooperation agreement recently signed by the company. In August, we just signed a long-term single purchase contract with Asia Silicon King for 65.438+0.248 million tons of polysilicon materials, with an estimated amount of 9.498 billion yuan. Soon in September, we signed an agreement with Longji to provide Longji with at least 10 1800 tons of polysilicon every year. These three companies need a total of 3 19600 tons of crystalline silicon.
At present, Tongwei Silicon has a production capacity of 80,000 tons. There will be no new silicon production capacity in the industry before the end of next year. According to Tongwei, the actual output is around 90,000 tons/year. Judging from the current situation, the existing demand cannot be met next year, and the new production capacity will be released. Now Tongwei's strategy is to approach the position of the world's largest supplier of silicon materials. According to the planning of Tongwei Co., Ltd., the annual production capacity of silicon materials will reach 6.5438+0.6 million tons by the end of next year, 200,000 tons in 2022 and 290,000 tons in 2023. Since the beginning of this year, Tongwei has announced a capacity expansion plan of nearly 30 billion yuan.
In February, the company started construction of the second phase of Yongxiang New Energy and the high-purity crystalline silicon project of Yunnan Yongxiang Baoshan Base. At present, Yongxiang Co., Ltd. has formed a production capacity of 80,000 tons of high-purity crystalline silicon, and the annual production capacity after all projects are put into production exceeds 6.5438+0.6 million tons. The total production capacity of Leshan Phase II and Baoshan Phase I projects currently under construction exceeds 80,000 tons, and they are expected to be completed and put into operation in 20021year. Three years ago, Tongwei shouted out the strategic plan of "building 33 billion tons120,000 tons of silicon materials and 30GW battery chips", but under the attack of 2018 "531",the industry speculated that Tongwei's inherent strategy would be "shrunk" or even shelved. However, from the perspective of production capacity layout, Tongwei shares have already taken the lead in the global high-efficiency battery field, and the high-purity crystalline silicon business has also become a brother in the industry.
Replace Tongwei and Liu Hanyuan.
In the development pedigree of new energy enterprises in China, its founders Liu Hanyuan and Tongwei Group are somewhat different.
According to the data, Tongwei Group was mainly engaged in agriculture and solar photovoltaic, and its agricultural business included research, production and sales of aquatic feed and livestock feed. It is the largest producer of aquatic feed in China.
Liu Hanyuan, 22, has tens of millions of wealth, because he founded a factory that produces fish feed. After the age of 25, he was worth over 100 million yuan, and gradually became the king of feed in China and even the world. In 1990s, under the condition of low gross profit margin, the competition of livestock and poultry feed has been very fierce. In order to integrate and reduce the cost of enterprises, Liu Hanyuan moved its headquarters to Chengdu on 1994. At that time, Tongwei was an enterprise with an annual turnover of 400 million yuan. Liu Hanyuan once said with certainty, "If you can survive in the feed industry, you can survive in any industry." Its success in the feed industry has sprouted the idea of getting involved in other industries. However, in 1995, it invested heavily in holding an IT enterprise in the former East Germany, but it failed due to insufficient grasp of the market. I failed to set foot in other fields for the first time, and then focused on the main feed industry until I found a new investment direction five years later. In 2000, he almost invested in Guangxin Silicon Industry, which was the first polysilicon project with an annual output of 1 10,000 tons in China and the "No.1 Project" in Sichuan Province at that time.
The turning point came in 2002, when Liu Hanyuan entered Guanghua School of Management of Peking University to study for an EMBA. After graduation, he continued to study for the doctor's degree in business administration of DBA, and his doctoral thesis was Comparative Study of Various New Energy Sources and Energy Strategy Choice of China, which formed the research result that solar photovoltaic power generation will become the main development direction of clean energy in the future, which undoubtedly opened a new world for his understanding of clean energy.
On June 5438+065438+ 10 of the same year, Tongwei Group, the controlling shareholder of the company, and Sichuan Superstar Enterprise Group * * * established Yongxiang Resin, the predecessor of Yongxiang Co., Ltd., and chose to enter the chemical resin industry together with familiar entrepreneurs. In the process of business development, it is found that some products of PVC can be used as raw materials of polysilicon. Until 2004, the German photovoltaic market exploded and the global market started, which greatly affected Liu Hanyuan's decision to enter the photovoltaic industry. After many arguments, it is not too late to enter the world, although new energy has set off a storm in a small area.
2006 12 19 After a long talk with 70-year-old polysilicon expert Dai Zizhong, Liu Hanyuan officially announced that it would enter the polysilicon industry and decided to focus on polysilicon business. Then in April 2007, Yongxiang Polysilicon was established by Yongxiang Resin, which was renamed Yongxiang Shares in May of the same year, and 50% of it was included in the listed company system in the following year. I never thought that in 2008, the whole industry was hit by the international financial crisis, and the price of polysilicon in the international market fluctuated greatly. Soon after Tongwei set foot in polysilicon production, the expected income decreased. However, this does not seem to have shaken Liu Hanyuan's determination. He said, "if polysilicon is made into feed, Tongwei is expected to enter the top three polysilicon production enterprises in the world within ten years." However, due to the operating considerations of listed companies, Yongxiang shares were transferred back to Tongwei Group, the controlling shareholder, on March 20 10. Cross-border entry into a completely unfamiliar new energy field made Liu Hanyuan the title of "the first person in photovoltaic new energy in China".
Behind the leap-forward development: customers and suppliers are highly coincident
At present, the main companies undertaking Tongwei's photovoltaic new energy business are Yongxiang and Hefei Saiwei, among which Yongxiang was transferred from Tongwei Group in 20 16 and re-incorporated into the board of directors of listed companies, mainly responsible for polysilicon business, with a polysilicon production capacity of10.5 million tons at the time of incorporation; However, the 20 100% equity of Hefei Saiwei won by the group in 20 13 was merged into a listed company in 20 16, focusing on the battery industry. At the time of registration, Hefei Tongwei had a production capacity of 2GW of polysilicon batteries, with an annual shipment of nearly1.6GW. It was one of the major crystalline silicon battery manufacturers in China.
After the above two mergers and acquisitions, the company has formed a business layout of photovoltaic industry chain with polysilicon, battery chips and photovoltaic power generation as the core.
Tongwei's products are mainly concentrated in photovoltaic modules, which are mainly subdivided into five links: polysilicon, silicon wafer, battery chip, module and photovoltaic power station. Polycrystalline silicon and battery chips mastered by Tongwei Co., Ltd. are also two links with high technical requirements in the whole photovoltaic industry chain. However, although most leading companies have their own emphasis on the whole photovoltaic industry chain, their business generally starts from silicon wafers and extends to photovoltaic power plants, such as Longji, Zhonghuan and Golden Hi-Tech. The business layout of Tongwei shares is not continuous, mainly concentrated in the above three links. In other links, Tongwei company chooses to purchase from its suppliers, thus forming a situation of high overlap between customers and suppliers. There are many industry competitors among these suppliers, and the relationship is quite subtle.
As early as 2065438+April 29th, 2005, Longji announced that it had signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Tongwei Group, indicating that both parties would jointly develop silicon chips, batteries, components and terminal systems. Tongwei Group will give priority to purchasing Longji's monocrystalline silicon wafers and components, and Longji will also give priority to purchasing Tongwei's silicon materials and battery chips.
Tongwei Group said: It will further expand the battery capacity and strive for coordinated development with Longji's silicon wafer and component capacity expansion. After Tongwei Group 20 16 injected its photovoltaic industry into listed companies, the cooperation between Tongwei Group and Longji shares deepened. 20 17 set up a joint venture with Longji and Trina Solar to invest in the construction of single crystal silicon rods with an annual output of 5GW, and set up a joint venture with Longji independently to invest 50,000 tons of high-purity polysilicon and supporting new energy projects. The purpose of Tongwei shares is to sign a supply chain cooperation agreement with the other party.
The cooperation mode between listed companies and Zhonghuan shares is exactly the same as Longji shares. 2065438+On May 28, 2008, the listed company and Zhonghuan Co., Ltd. also signed an industrial chain cooperation framework agreement, and once again recognized Zhonghuan Co., Ltd. as an important customer and supplier. According to the data, the purchase quantity of polysilicon of Longji shares accounts for about 20.83% of the sales quantity of listed companies in 20 18 and 32.92% of the sales quantity in 20 19. The polysilicon purchased by Longji and Zhonghuan 20 19 accounts for 89.29% of the annual sales of listed companies. In addition to silicon wafers, Zhonghuan shares also purchase solar cells from listed companies.
By establishing this strategic relationship, both parties can not only solve their own product sales, but also ensure a stable supply of raw materials. In this way, Tongwei shares only need to concentrate resources and funds on the links they are good at and reduce the financial pressure. Since 2007, Tongwei Co., Ltd. has launched 10 fixed-income plan, but only once in 20 13 and twice in 20 16. Only with the help of the capital market, Tongwei's share fundraising may reach1300 million yuan from 20 16. Tongwei's crazy capacity expansion has been criticized by the outside world, and its expansion coincides with the bottom of silicon prices. Especially under the attack of 2018 "531",the industry also speculates whether Tongwei's inherent strategy will "shrink", but judging from Liu Hanyuan's previous actions, it is unlikely to shrink. From 2065438 to 2008, Tongwei shares increased by 60,000 tons/year, which was the biggest year of production capacity increase.
Strong cost control: the cost of silicon material is already the lowest in the industry.
Liu Hanyuan is really using the method of making polysilicon as feed, paying attention to cost control, and the feed industry entering the buyer's market requires strengthening customer relations, both of which are deeply copied to polysilicon business by Liu Hanyuan. With the expansion of production capacity, Tongwei Co., Ltd., which is under great financial pressure, has begun to exert its advantages and cost control ability in the feed industry.
The production cost of polysilicon is mainly composed of electricity, raw material silicon powder, labor, maintenance and equipment depreciation. In fact, the most important cost is electricity, which accounts for 30% of polysilicon production cost. Generally, before the expansion, the enterprise will first determine the electricity price of the factory building. As there are fewer and fewer areas with low electricity prices and areas that meet the needs of expanding production, the factory location has improved the access threshold for silicon materials.
The new polysilicon production lines of Tongwei Co., Ltd. in recent two years are all in western regions such as Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia. By the end of 20 18, the polysilicon production capacity in Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia and Sichuan has exceeded 80% of the total domestic production capacity. According to the announcement of Tongwei Co., Ltd. in June 20 18 and10, the average production cost of new Baotou and Leshan is estimated to be about 40,000 yuan/ton, which is about 27.3% lower than the original production capacity of Yongxiang Leshan.
In 2020, the production cost of Yongxiang polysilicon will fall below 50,000 yuan/ton; The production costs of Yongxiang New Energy and Inner Mongolia Tongwei are stable below 40,000 yuan/ton; The system investment cost of striving for the best photovoltaic power generation project is below 3.5 yuan/W.
At present, the company's production cost in silicon materials is the lowest in the industry, and the decline space mainly comes from the improvement of production efficiency and cost control. The procurement strategic alliance it built has increased its cost advantage to some extent. Due to the high entry threshold of silicon materials and the stable competition pattern in the industry, almost no new players have entered. At present, the unit investment of silicon material production line is 65.438 billion yuan/10,000 tons, which is much higher than other links. It is estimated that it will take 1- 1.5 years from production expansion to production landing, and it is estimated that it will take about 1 year to climb to full production, with a long payback period.
But there is also an advantage, the industry competition pattern is stable. According to the information released by various enterprises, it is estimated that three enterprises will expand their production in 20021year, namely Tongwei, GCL and Asia Silicon Industry. The expansion plans are 3/2/20,000 tons respectively, and the industry's production capacity is less. After the expansion, Tongwei shares will become the first in the industry market share. However, at the expense of expansion, the company's total fixed assets and projects under construction increased from 2.459 billion yuan in 20 15 to 28 billion yuan in 20 19, an increase of more than ten times.
However, after entering 2020, the expansion of Tongwei shares continues. On February 1 1 day, 2020, a "planning announcement" and a "project announcement" of Tongwei Co., Ltd. shocked the industry-investing 20 billion yuan to expand 30GW of high-efficiency solar cell production and supporting projects in stages. According to the medium-term plan, by 2023, Tongwei's high-purity crystalline silicon business and battery production capacity may reach 220,000-290,000 tons and 800- 100 GW respectively.
It is not the first time that similar planning and expansion have been carried out. Over the past few years, the various "speeds" and "firsts" created by this enterprise have long been dizzying. Whether the industry is in a "delayed period", a rising period, a confused period, or a frozen period after "53 1", the strategic determination and implementation of this enterprise have never been "discounted" at all, and even accelerated the realization of the goal ahead of schedule. Undoubtedly, Tongwei's strategic determination and long-term implementation culture behind this have a far-reaching impact on the long-term development of this enterprise.