The growth rate of manufacturing investment may decrease by 1.5 percentage points, which will lower the investment growth rate by 0.5 percentage points. First, the decline in business prosperity affects investment enthusiasm. It is found that 60% of the growth rate of manufacturing investment can be explained by the growth rate of corporate profits in the previous year. Since 20 15, the total profit of industrial enterprises has been continuously negative growth, which is about 5 percentage points lower than the previous year. The deterioration of profits of industrial enterprises inhibits enterprises from expanding investment. And in the first half of the year, benefiting from the continuous activity of the stock market, the income of non-main business of enterprises increased rapidly. If the influence is eliminated, the business situation of the enterprise is even worse than the profit data shows. Second, overcapacity is still outstanding, and the motivation for new investment is insufficient. From the industry statistics this year, the problem of overcapacity is still outstanding, and with the economic downturn, the capacity utilization rate has further declined, and overcapacity industries are likely to expand. Third, the scale of high-tech manufacturing industry is still small, and it is difficult to provide sufficient investment support. The year-on-year growth of national high-tech manufacturing investment is nearly 4 percentage points higher than that of all manufacturing investment, but its proportion is less than 10%, which has a weak pulling effect on manufacturing investment growth.
Real estate investment may drop to zero growth. First, the current capital source structure is difficult to support the growth of real estate investment. Although the funds in place of real estate development enterprises increased by1-1.3% year-on-year in June, the growth rate has been increasing for several months. However, from the source of funds, domestic loans, foreign capital and self-raised funds have all experienced negative growth for several months in a row, and only deposits, prepayments and personal mortgage loans have increased. Second, the land acquisition area of real estate development enterprises grew negatively year-on-year. From June 5438+0 to June 5438+0 1, the land acquisition area of real estate development enterprises decreased by 33. 1% year-on-year. Third, the current prosperity of the real estate market has not fully recovered. At present, the prosperity of the real estate market is structural, not holistic. From a regional perspective, first-and second-tier cities are more prosperous, while third-and fourth-tier cities are in a downturn. From the perspective of the purchase structure, the prosperity of improved housing is relatively high, while the prosperity of just-needed housing and high-end housing is relatively low. Since June 65438+ 10, the growth rate of real estate sales has declined.
The growth of infrastructure investment may drop by 2 percentage points. First, the source of funds is limited. Affected by the economic downturn, the growth rate of fiscal revenue has dropped sharply. If the prosperity of the real estate market drops again next year, the sources of funds for local governments will be greatly restricted. Second, some reform measures may curb the expansion of local government investment in the short term. The new budget law, the restriction of local investment competition and the reform of local judicial and disciplinary committees have strengthened the checks and balances on the economic behavior of local governments, which may inhibit the expansion of local investment and financing in the short term.
(2) Consumption may enter single-digit growth.
First, the income growth of urban and rural residents continued to slow down. In the first three quarters, residents' income actually increased by 7.7%, which was 0.8 percentage points higher than the economic growth rate. But compared with the previous year, it continued to slow down. Second, consumer confidence may weaken due to obvious unemployment and other factors. Third, some hot consumption may slow down. First of all, the effect of automobile consumption incentive policy is weakened. Secondly, due to the increase of risk aversion caused by the fluctuation of gold price and stock market this year, the consumption of gold, silver and jewelry for the purpose of maintaining and increasing value increased significantly in the third quarter, with an average growth rate of 13%, but it was not sustainable.
(3) Exports may be slightly higher than this year.
First, the external environment is still complicated. The report of the International Monetary Fund 5438+ 10 in June predicted that the recovery of developed economies would weaken in 20 16, but the growth rate of emerging market countries would pick up in 20 16. Second, an optimized policy environment and a low base may increase export growth, while imports may increase at a low speed. The negative growth of imports this year is mainly caused by the decline in commodity prices, and the decline in imports is not significant. It is expected that the import volume will be reduced in a narrow range next year, the price impact will be reduced, and the import will grow at a low speed.
On the whole, the economy will still face greater downward pressure next year, and the economic growth rate may fall further.
20 16 macro policy choice
20 16 The focus of macro policy is still based on the current situation, focusing on the long term, handling the relationship between steady growth, structural adjustment and risk prevention, and making efforts from both supply and demand.
A proactive fiscal policy is more powerful. First, it is suggested to further expand the deficit scale and improve deficit ratio. The new deficit is mainly used for major national projects, cross-regional and inter-basin investment projects and key projects with strong externalities. Second, it is suggested to increase the issuance scale of central government bonds, appropriately increase the issuance quota of local government bonds, continue to promote bond replacement in a timely manner, reduce the debt repayment pressure of local governments, make room for local governments' expenditures in other fields, ensure the reasonable investment of local public services and the stable supply of public infrastructure construction, and stimulate economic growth. The third is to further increase the efforts to revitalize existing funds and coordinate expenditures in key areas such as transportation, water conservancy and people's livelihood. Fourth, appropriately increase transfer payments to difficult areas such as Northeast China, and cooperate with other relevant policies to enhance their independent growth momentum.
A prudent monetary policy is more moderate. First, it is suggested to continue to reduce the deposit reserve ratio and benchmark interest rate, maintain sufficient liquidity in the case of intensified capital outflow, and guide the market interest rate down. Under the overall situation of keeping the overall trend of the exchange rate basically stable, according to market conditions, we will continue to release the pressure of RMB depreciation and further reduce the pressure on the export sector. Second, stabilize the stock market, develop a multi-level capital market, and further improve the financing function of the capital market. Wide entry and strict exit to prevent the risk of large-scale capital outflow. Third, give full play to the role of directional regulation, further expand the scale of capital utilization of development finance and policy financial institutions, and support the construction of key areas.
Accelerate structural reform. Continue to promote decentralization, speed up the resolution of excess capacity and clean up zombie enterprises, take effective measures to effectively reduce the costs of various enterprises, guide the "double innovation" activities to develop in depth, and deepen the reform of state-owned enterprises.
Fully mobilize local enthusiasm. Establish a positive incentive mechanism for local governments in reform and development, and overcome the tendency of inaction. Actively explore the new mechanism of local government competition under the new situation, not only to ensure fairness and justice, but also to fully mobilize local enthusiasm.