The gold market and jewelry market are interrelated, interdependent and developed together, and have gone through an extraordinary course of rapid development for more than ten years. This paper discusses the recent operation of Shanghai Gold Exchange, the influence of the current global economic situation on the gold market, and the continuous innovation and good service of Shanghai Gold Exchange.
1. Basic information of Shanghai Gold Exchange
Shanghai Gold Exchange is a legal person approved by the State Council, established by the People's Bank of China and registered with the State Administration for Industry and Commerce. Not for profit, self-discipline management. The Exchange officially opened on June 30, 2002, and organized the trading of precious metals such as gold, silver and platinum in accordance with the principles of openness, fairness, justice and honesty.
The exchange adopts the form of membership organization. Members 166, including 8 foreign members. The annual gold production and consumption of members account for 90% of the country; Gold smelting capacity accounts for 95% of the country.
The exchange implements centralized bidding and matching transactions in the market, and also provides inter-bank inquiry transactions. At present, the trading varieties are divided into three categories: 1 1. Among them, gold has spot firm offer and spot deferred varieties; Silver has spot firm offer and spot deferred varieties; Platinum is in stock. The exchange trades 10 hour a day, and the night market from 2 1:00 to 2:30 am the next day coincides with the trading hours of major gold markets in Europe and America.
The Exchange implements the principle of centralized, direct and net fund settlement, and the designated clearing banks include 16 commercial banks such as industry, agriculture, China and China Construction. Physical delivery is based on "one household, one yard system", and 69 designated warehouses are set up in 42 cities across the country to uniformly dispatch and distribute gold ingots and bars. The Exchange has qualified enterprises that can provide standard gold ingots, gold bars and silver ingots, and has identified 35 gold ingots, gold bars and 20 silver ingots.
2. The recent operation of Shanghai Gold Exchange
In the first three quarters of 20 12, the domestic gold price closely followed the international gold price trend, showing a trend of "rising first, then restraining and then rising". Taking gold Au99.95 as an example, the opening price at the beginning of the year was 326.8 yuan/gram, the highest price during the period was 362.5 yuan/gram, and the lowest price was 3 12.69 yuan/gram, and it closed at 359.48 yuan/gram at the end of the third quarter, up from 20 1.20008008/kloc-.
In the first three quarters of 20 12, the market of Shanghai Gold Exchange operated smoothly, with a total turnover of 4,709.04 tons of gold, and the transaction scale decreased year-on-year. This is related to the relative stability of the gold price in the third quarter of this year compared with the special and extremely rare large fluctuations encountered by the gold price in the same period of 201/kloc-0.
In the first three quarters of 20 12, the market demand for physical gold was still further strengthened. Shanghai Gold Exchange delivered 828.68 tons of gold, up 13.96% year-on-year. The gold delivery ratio is 35.20%, which is 7.7 1% higher than the gold delivery ratio of 27.49% in the first three quarters of 201year ago, indicating that the processing demand of domestic gold jewelry industry is still very strong.
3. Talking about the influence of the current global economic situation on the gold market.
We know that the international gold market has experienced a rapid development of 10 years. Since 2002, the international gold price has maintained a rapid upward trend. At the end of 200 1, the London market closed at 276.5 USD/oz, and at the end of 20 1 1, the London market closed at 1574.5 USD/oz. In the 10 years after 2002, the average annual rate of return of gold was 19.37%, and the compound rate of return of gold was 19.00%. From 20 12 to the end of the third quarter, the gold yield in London market was 12.80%. With the rise of international gold price, the international gold market has developed rapidly, especially the on-site gold market. Take the COMEX gold market in America as an example. In 2002, the trading volume of COMEX gold futures was 28,049.765,438+0 tons, and in 2065,438+065,438+0 years, it increased to 65,438+052,939.30 tons, and the turnover in 65,438+00 years increased by 4.45 times. Similarly, the gold markets in China, Indian, Japanese, China, Hongkong and Dubai also maintained rapid growth.
However, the current world economy is experiencing another severe test after the financial crisis. The Medium-term Economic Outlook released by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in September said that the deepening of the European debt crisis has hit global trade and confidence in the economic prospects, and global economic growth has shown a weak trend. Some major European countries and Japan expect negative economic growth in the third quarter, while the economic recovery in the United States is slow and the economic growth in developing economies is slowing down. In the context of global economic turmoil, the global gold market is more volatile, the uncertainty in the future is increasing, and the argument that the gold bull market has ended is endless. However, when we deeply study the changes in the global economic and financial environment for the development of the gold market, we can still find some basic factors that support the continued development of the gold market.
First of all, global central banks pay more attention to gold reserves and continue to buy gold in recent years. According to the report of the World Gold Council, in 20 10, the global central bank officially changed from a net seller of gold to a net buyer. In that year, global central banks bought 73.6 tons of gold. In 20 1 1 year, the global central bank bought a total of 430 tons of gold. 20 12 global central bank purchases continued to be active. In the second quarter alone, global central bank purchases reached a record 157.5 tons, more than twice that of 20 1 1 in the same period. In the third quarter, the central bank continued to buy 97.6 tons of gold. The United States has always maintained the world's first gold reserve of 8 133.5 tons, and many American politicians have recently expressed their attitude of paying more attention to gold. Europe is a traditional gold seller, but after the outbreak of the European debt crisis, despite the financial difficulties of many countries, these countries in deep crisis did not sell any gold, and even if they applied for assistance, they still retained their gold reserves. Many countries in emerging economies have increased their holdings of gold. Russia has been increasing its gold reserves since 2006, with an increase of 95 tons in 20 1 1 year and 35 tons in the first half of 20 12. Its gold reserves have reached 9 18.0 tons, accounting for 9.2% of its foreign exchange reserves. India, Turkey, Mexico, Thailand, Kazakhstan and South Korea. Many experts believe that the central banks of emerging market countries will continue to buy gold in the future to further strengthen the stability of their domestic financial markets, while it is almost impossible for developed countries to sell gold in large quantities. On the whole, in the period when the international monetary system changes and the diversification of foreign reserves continues to heat up, global central banks will remain the main holders of gold in the future. The continuous gold purchase activities of central banks around the world have fundamentally enhanced the monetary value of gold and set the tone for the sustainable development of the gold market.
Second, the current world economy still needs a relatively loose monetary environment. After the global financial crisis, the United States implemented three rounds of quantitative easing monetary policy to stimulate the economy in June 2008 +0 1, June 2065438 +00+0 1 and September 2065438 +02. At the same time, the Fed will keep the interest rate at 0-0.25% for a long time. In Europe, the European debt crisis not only led to the economic downturn in Europe, but also endangered the security of the euro. In September, the Council of the European Central Bank decided to implement the "Direct Currency Trading" (OMTs) bond purchase plan, that is, under strict conditions, to buy the national debt issued by the heavily indebted countries in the euro zone without any upper limit, with a view to saving the euro in crisis with loose monetary policy. Similarly, the slowdown of economic growth in developing countries also requires loose monetary policy to boost economic growth. At present, with the aggravation of the world economic imbalance under the dollar standard in the international monetary system, global central banks will release more liquidity for the sake of saving the European debt crisis or stimulating their own economic development. At present, the world economy still needs a relatively loose monetary environment to support it, which will objectively be very beneficial to the development of the gold market.
Third, as an asset allocation tool, gold has a broad market in the early stage. Gold has a very low correlation with the returns of stocks, real estate, bonds and other assets, and is an excellent variety to spread risks, optimize asset portfolio and avoid investment asset risks. At the same time, gold is favored by investors because of its high return, medium risk and easy circulation. Many scholars have suggested that the proportion of gold assets in investors' asset allocation can account for 5%~ 10% of total assets. At present, the proportion of gold allocation among global investors' assets is very low, and the demand for gold asset allocation will increase in the future.
In short, the current low global economic growth, high government debt, the continuous buying of gold by global central banks in recent years, the current world economic development relying on a relatively loose monetary environment, the improvement of gold's monetary attributes, the broad prospects of gold as an asset allocation market and the boost of gold's hedging function are all beneficial to the medium and long-term gold price, and there are still some reasons for optimism in the future. There is still huge room for development in the global gold and jewelry market.
4. Shanghai Gold Exchange keeps innovating and provides quality services.
For a long time, Shanghai Gold Exchange has continuously improved its service level and innovated to meet the market demand. From March 20 12 to March 0/2, the transaction fees of gold, silver and platinum varieties were reduced by 0.5%, among which the fee rate of gold extension contract Au(T+D) was reduced from 0.03% to 0.025%, with the reduction range of 1 6.7%. The handling fee rate of spot gold varieties was reduced from 0.045% to 0.04%, with a decrease of 1 1. 1%, which continued to promote market prosperity. In 20 12, according to the system construction plan, Shanghai Gold Exchange continuously increased system investment, and stepped up the development and construction of new systems while improving the existing systems. At present, the construction of the 2.5 generation system is drawing to a close, and the preliminary design of the disaster recovery system has been completed, which will provide strong support for the market function expansion and product innovation of the exchange and provide effective guarantee for the sustained and healthy development of the exchange. In the next few years, Shanghai Gold Exchange will continue to innovate and develop its business on the basis of the development and construction of the third generation system. The Shanghai Gold Exchange is cooperating with the stock exchange to research and develop a gold ETF that is listed and traded on the stock exchange with the physical gold contract of the Shanghai Gold Exchange as the target. Shanghai Gold Exchange actively explores and studies the cooperation with the foreign exchange trading center to launch the inter-bank gold inquiry market. At the same time, Shanghai Gold Exchange is strengthening market promotion and investor education, and constantly improving its market position.
At present, China is in a critical period of economic restructuring, and it is also an important period to implement the spirit of the 18th CPC National Congress. The 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China pointed out: Hold high the great banner of Socialism with Chinese characteristics, take Deng Xiaoping Theory, Theory of Three Represents and Scientific Outlook on Development as the guidance, emancipate the mind, carry out reform and opening up, gather strength, overcome difficulties, unswervingly advance along the road of Socialism with Chinese characteristics, and strive to build a well-off society in an all-round way. The goal of "building a well-off society in an all-round way" will provide great opportunities for the development of gold and jewelry industry in China.
Looking forward to the future, under the leadership of the People's Bank of China, the Shanghai Gold Exchange will aim at promoting a well-off society, adhere to the principle of "striving for progress while maintaining stability", emancipate its mind, constantly increase the construction of trading systems, constantly explore business innovation, and constantly improve its risk control capability, so as to effectively guarantee the healthy and stable operation of China's gold market and accelerate its reform and development. The gold and jewelry industry should better serve the development of the real economy, better support and meet all kinds of new demands constantly raised in the development of the gold and jewelry industry, and do a good job in the background service of the transformation and development of the gold and jewelry industry.
20 12 China jewelry yearbook