According to the historical statistics of gold, the dollar is negatively correlated with gold. From the data of the past ten years, the relationship between the US dollar and gold is getting closer and closer to-1%, so the change of the US dollar exchange rate is an important reference when analyzing the trend of gold price. However, in some special periods, especially when the trend of gold is very strong or weak, the price of gold will also operate independently and will not be affected by the trend of the US dollar. The fluctuation of gold price is based on the relationship between supply and demand. If the output of gold increases significantly, the price of gold will be affected and fall back. In addition, the application of new gold mining technology, the discovery of new mines and the sale of gold by the central bank will all put pressure on the price of gold. If you enter a big gold consuming country such as India, there will be miners at the peak of gold consumption or during a long strike, and the overall supply is less than demand, and the price of gold will benefit from the increase. In recent years, the proportion of gold investment demand in the market is increasing, and its impact on gold is more flexible and sensitive. Therefore, every move in the financial derivatives market is more important to the trend of gold price.
(1) Gold stock on the earth: There are about137,400 tons of gold in the world, and the above-ground gold stock is still growing at a rate of about 2% every year.
(2) Annual supply and demand: The annual supply and demand of gold is about 4,200 tons, and the newly produced gold accounts for 62% of the annual supply.
(3) New gold mining cost: The average total gold mining cost is slightly lower than $260/oz. Due to the development of mining technology, the cost of gold development has been declining in the past 20 years.
(4) Political, military and economic changes in gold-producing countries: Any political and military turmoil in these countries will undoubtedly directly affect the country's gold production, and then affect the world's gold supply.
(5) The central bank sells gold: The central bank is the largest gold holder in the world. 1969 The official gold reserve was 36,458 tons, accounting for 42.6% of the total surface gold stock at that time. By 1998, the official gold reserve is about 34,000 tons, accounting for 24. 1% of the total mined gold stock. According to the production capacity, this is equivalent to 13 years of world gold minerals. Because the main use of gold has gradually changed from an important reserve asset to a metal raw material for jewelry production, either to improve the balance of payments or to curb the international gold price, the central bank's gold reserves have declined greatly in absolute and relative quantities in the past 30 years, and the decline in quantity mainly depends on the sale of gold reserves in the gold market. For example, the large-scale selling by the Bank of England, the Swiss National Bank and the International Monetary Fund to reduce gold reserves has become the main reason for the decline in gold prices in the international gold market. (1) Changes in the actual demand for gold (jewelry industry, industry, etc. ).
Generally speaking, the development speed of the world economy determines the total demand for gold. For example, in the field of microelectronics, gold is increasingly used as a protective layer; In the fields of medicine, building decoration and so on, although the progress of science and technology makes gold substitutes appear constantly, the demand for gold is still on the rise because of its special metal properties.
In some areas, local factors have a great influence on the demand for gold. For example, due to the financial crisis, India and Southeast Asian countries, which have always had a great demand for gold jewelry, have greatly reduced their gold imports since 1997. According to the data of the World Gold Council, the demand for gold in Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and South Korea decreased by 7 1%, 28%, 10% and 9% respectively.
According to statistics, the per capita consumption of gold in China in 2 1 century is only 0.2g, which is far from the world's major gold consuming countries. However, the per capita consumption of gold in India is 0.85g, which is more than four times that of China. Judging from China's economic development and per capita income, China is much higher than Indian. Therefore, China's gold consumption potential is huge, and the prospect is very considerable.
(2) the need to preserve value.
Gold reserves have always been regarded by the central bank as an important means to prevent domestic inflation and regulate the market. For ordinary investors, investing in gold is mainly for the purpose of preserving value under inflation. During the economic downturn, because gold is safer than monetary assets, the demand for gold increases and the price of gold rises. For example, in the three dollar crises after World War II, due to the serious balance of payments deficit in the United States, the dollar held by various countries increased greatly, the market's confidence in the value of the dollar was shaken, and investors snapped up gold in large quantities, which directly led to the bankruptcy of the Bretton Woods system. The depreciation of 1987 dollars, the increase of the deficit in the United States and the instability in the Middle East also contributed to the sharp rise in international gold prices.
(3) Speculative demand.
According to the international and domestic situation, speculators use the fluctuation of gold price in the gold market and the trading system in the gold futures market to "short" or "replenish" gold in large quantities, artificially creating the illusion of gold demand. In the gold market, almost every plunge is related to hedge fund companies borrowing short-term gold to sell in the spot gold market and establishing a large number of short positions on the COMEX gold futures exchange. When the price of gold fell to a 20-year low of 1999 in July, the data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed that COMEX's speculative short position was close to 9 million ounces (nearly 300 tons). When a large number of stop-loss selling was triggered, the price of gold fell, and the fund company took the opportunity to make up the position and make a profit. When the gold price rebounded slightly, the hedging forward selling from manufacturers suppressed the further rise of the gold price, and at the same time gave the fund company a new opportunity to re-establish short positions, forming a downward pattern of the gold price at that time. AG, a gold and silver research and development center in Gaosaier, said: "The price trend of the gold market is not simply determined by market supply and demand, nor is it simply played by central banks. Among them, speculative factors also account for a large proportion in the price. " The credit currency crisis has brought a good opportunity for gold to rise.
The euro and the dollar are like two seesaw children, and people are always paying attention to their opposites. However, if the euro and the dollar are regarded as the representatives of the international credit currency as a whole, we will find that the center of gravity of the whole seesaw is moving down. The general trend of international credit currency depreciation is inevitable, and as the opposite of credit currency, the continuous rise of gold is also inevitable.
The comparison of two sets of data between the fluctuation range of gold and credit currency shows that from August 2002 to August 20 12, the closing price of COMEX gold futures rose as high as 428%, the dollar index depreciated by 24.3%, and the euro against the dollar rose from 0.98 to 1.26, with an increase of 28.5%. It can be seen that the seesaw effect between the euro and the dollar is obvious, while the increase of gold relative to credit currency is huge. In the five years since the financial crisis broke out (August 20, 20071August 2), the international gold price rose by 150%, the US dollar index was basically flat, and the euro depreciated by 14% against the US dollar. It can be seen that although the international gold price is denominated in US dollars, the overall increase of gold is still amazing when the US dollar is basically flat. Although there is a positive correlation between the euro and gold in the short term, after the outbreak of the European debt crisis, the euro dropped significantly, while gold still rose. At this time, the short-term positive correlation between gold and the euro was replaced by the long-term negative correlation, and the effect of gold as the opposite of credit currency was fully manifested.
Based on the above analysis, the fluctuation of the dollar and the euro is short-lived and cyclical, and each fluctuation will stimulate the price of gold to rise. In the long run, gold is the opposite of credit currency, and every callback will be a good opportunity to buy.
The wave of asset reserve adjustment pushed up the price of gold.
In the era of highly unstable international credit system, gold has never been ignored in the process of financial institutions in various countries seeking to preserve assets.
After the outbreak of the international financial crisis in 2008, the United States borrowed heavily and was heavily in debt, but did not sell gold. Some European countries, such as Germany and France, also have relatively large gold reserves. Despite the huge impact during the financial crisis, they did not sell gold, but increased their holdings. Among emerging market countries, Russia, Argentina, South Africa and other countries have repeatedly increased their holdings of gold in the international market; India not only buys gold in the market, but also buys huge amounts of gold from the IMF at one time; China's central bank nearly doubled its gold reserves in five years by purchasing domestic gold.
The gold reserves of central banks in the euro zone exceed 10000 tons, and the United States has maintained 8000 tons of gold reserves for a long time. The gold reserves of China and Japan are only about 1 1,000 tons, accounting for less than 2% of their respective foreign exchange reserves. According to the latest report of the World Gold Council, in the second quarter of 20 12, the demand for gold by central banks and official institutions accelerated, and the gold reserves increased by 157.5 tons. Compared with 203.2 tons in the first half of 20 1 1, the gold reserves in the first half of this year increased by 254.2 tons. The purchasing activities continue to be concentrated in the central banks of developing countries, reflecting the need to diversify the reserves through the strategic allocation of gold in the reserve portfolio.
On the other hand, the total confirmed surface gold reserves in the world are about163,000 tons, which is only equivalent to the size of a cubic room with a side length of 20.36. Among them, tradable gold only accounts for 17%, which is far from meeting the strong investment demand. According to the statistics of the World Gold Council, among the main uses of gold, jewelry consumption accounts for the largest proportion, reaching 83,600 tons; The total official gold reserves of various countries reached 30,400 tons; Industrial and other gold consumption reached 6.5438+0.97 million tons; The deterministic investment in gold is only 27,300 tons, which is about 17% of the current total gold.
Full expectations directly push up the price of gold.
On September 6th, President Mario Draghi of the European Central Bank announced the launch of Direct Currency Trading (OMP) to purchase unlimited national debt of member countries in the secondary market, so as to reduce the financing cost of member countries. At the same time, the Fed did not show weakness. Since the FOMC meeting in June, Bernanke has begun to hint that QE3 will be implemented. On September 14, the Federal Reserve said that it would start to implement a new round of quantitative easing policy, increase the purchase of institutional mortgage securities by 40 billion US dollars every month, and continue to implement operation twist. It is estimated that by the end of this year, the Fed will increase its long-term securities by a total of $85 billion. The actions of European and American central banks made the market realize that the global economic recovery is difficult now, and continuing to "print money" is still the only way to maintain the weak economic recovery. As the opposite of international credit currency, gold has been recognized by the market again.
Judging from the launch and withdrawal time of each round of easing policies by the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank since the financial crisis and the trend of gold, quantitative easing policy is like an invisible hand pushing this wave of gold to rise. Judging from the rising rhythm, the expected warming of the market and the convergence stage of gold rose significantly before the introduction of the easing policy. We call this stage "expectation-driven rise". After the introduction of the easing policy, due to the profit-taking in the previous period, the price of gold often needs a small break. After the profit-taking disk was digested, the off-exchange funds that did not enter the market at first chose to enter the market, and together with the funds that entered the market in the previous period, the price of gold rose further. We call this stage "capital-driven rise". Since July, 2065438+02, the rise of international gold price is an obvious "expectation-driven rise". This round of gold rise is only halfway up the mountain at most, and the market outlook will continue to rise under the dual effects of the expectation of further action by the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve and the capital-driven effect.
In the long run, the international credit system will continue to be turbulent, and the international credit currencies represented by the euro and the dollar will inevitably depreciate, while the price of gold, as its opposite, will inevitably rise. The wave of asset reserve adjustment and strong investment demand will also continue to push up the price of gold. In the short term, with the further strengthening of the loose expectations of European and American central banks, gold will usher in a "sharp rise period". From the perspective of CFTC's position structure, non-commercial long positions have increased significantly, reaching 9345, 23900 and 10265 respectively in the last three weeks, and the position ratio has risen to 46. 1%. The intention of international funds to do more gold is obvious.
Unlike other commodities, there is no constraint on the upside of gold prices. Because it is not like crude oil and copper, rising too much will make raw material demanders unprofitable and consumers unable to afford it, thus crushing the global economy. The rise of gold will not harm producers and consumers, nor will it harm a country's economy.
On the other hand, as a guarantee of reserve assets and confidence, gold will face the pressure of historical profit-taking. Because the gold of $300/oz before 20 10 is not consumed like the crude oil of $20/barrel before 20 10, it will take a period of rest after each round of rise because of the selling of profit-taking discs. Therefore, there is always an opportunity to invest in gold, and every callback is a good opportunity to buy.