Medium-and long-term trend: the probability of falling is much higher than that of rising, and there must be rebound and oscillation in the process of falling.
Short-term: In recent years, gold will start a wave of gains every September, which is related to the demand factor at the end of the year and the weakening of the US dollar.
However, it is estimated that the upward trend of gold at the end of this year will not be too smooth, and it should be a period of sharp oscillation and consolidation. This integration trend may begin to decline before the dust settles in the US election or the Federal Reserve begins to raise interest rates.
Before the end of the year, the US dollar index has a high probability of reaching the range of 82 ~ 86, and then some gains are retreated. Gold will not start to rebound normally until the dollar reaches this range. At this time, gold is likely to be the last rebound. As for the height of the rebound, it depends on the situation at that time.
From the perspective of investment, the probability of establishing a strong dollar is extremely high, and it is unwise to buy gold; Short selling is a long-term opportunity for gold investment.
From the perspective of speculation, we can find a suitable point to buy in small quantities, but personally feel that the risk and return are not reasonable, contrary to the trend, and the risk is extremely high. It is still suggested that shorting rallies is the best policy.
From the perspective of buying jewelry, it will take some time for the international gold price to be transmitted to the retail price. Just buy what you like. After all, a thousand dollars can hardly buy a kind heart. Jewelry's function of preserving value is limited, mainly involving purity, style and technology. , and does not necessarily preserve the value. If you want to preserve your value, you might as well buy gold bars or bricks or invest in gold futures.
There are several possibilities for gold to continue to rise:
The United States used force against Iran.
Poland's missile defense and other problems led Russia to take further actions beyond diplomatic means.
3 The subprime mortgage crisis in the United States has further evolved into a worse situation (leading the Federal Reserve to adopt more radical means of currency issuance)
In one case, gold continues to be bullish.
The reasons for medium and long-term bearishness are as follows:
The trend of gold is negatively related to the trend of the dollar (the dollar began to depreciate from 0 1, which lasted for seven years a while ago, so it's time to start to rise).
Now the dollar is gradually strengthening. From the perspective of monetary policy and overall economic environment, the probability of establishing a strong dollar is extremely high. Compared with Europe, the interest rate in the United States is very low. Judging from the recent data, the European Central Bank has raised interest rates one after another (stopped) for the purpose of controlling inflation, but it has curbed economic development. The United States, on the other hand, has cut interest rates continuously (stopped), and adopted a series of monetary policies and emergency measures, which are more sensible than the current monetary policy of the European Central Bank and have produced better results.
Although the interest rate in the high interest rate currency area has a certain effect on curbing inflation, it does hinder economic recovery; At the same time, the trade unions in Europe are very strong, and it is estimated that the central bank will also make concessions (as much as possible to curb inflation). Tight monetary policy, coupled with the spread of the subprime mortgage crisis, has undoubtedly made these areas worse than the United States.
Secondly, in the election year of the United States, the dollar will not depreciate unilaterally (political factors) In this general election, although according to the latest opinion polls, the presiding rate of the candidates of the two parties is neck and neck, the probability of Obama winning is still high (the United States needs such a role to tide over the difficulties at present, at least his coming to power can enhance people's confidence. From the current point of view, this person will definitely be more willing to suppress inflation and high oil prices than the * * * and the party.
When the economy is depressed, people will consume more practical things instead of hoarding gold.