However, with the help of the new track of new energy vehicles, the technological innovation of China automobile industry has been deepened, and the key core technologies have been continuously broken, especially the electrification transformation is leading the world, and the intelligent network has accelerated the iteration, which has made the industrial scale grow.
In a word, China automobile brands are deeply involved in the reconstruction of the global automobile industry chain. For example, the long-rumored cooperation between Tesla and BYD in the battery field is regarded as a symbol of China's participation in the global new energy vehicle industry chain.
Recently, however, the Korean media has poured cold water on the cooperation between the two sides. According to the Korea Economic Daily, Tesla will end its cooperation with BYD, and Tesla will no longer use BYD's blade battery. In response to this report, BYD denied the rumor for the first time, calling the report "false information, which is inconsistent with the actual situation." Subsequently, Tesla CEO Musk pointed out in the relevant tweet comment area that the media report was untrue and the cooperation between Tesla and BYD was positive.
On the surface, what we see is an ordinary report by the Korean media, but what is reflected behind it is a quiet battle for power batteries and the global new energy industry chain. At the moment, China and South Korea are "killing" and the situation is very fierce.
The situation has changed, and suppliers now want to "rob" customers.
Compared with the sudden price reduction war of car companies in 2023, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is also experiencing a continuous decline, but consumers are not aware of it.
According to the data released by Shanghai Steel Union, as of February 27th, 2023, the battery-grade lithium carbonate dropped by 5,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 402,500 yuan/ton, which was 22.22% lower than the price of 10/0.75 million yuan/ton this year and 6.9% lower than that of the same period last year. I have to say that compared with the price of raw materials that were fired in the past, it has indeed dropped a lot.
Correspondingly, the growth rate of demand for new energy terminals has slowed down. According to the data of China Automobile Association, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China was 408,000 in May 4438+10, down 6.3% year-on-year. Although the momentum returned in February, the overall situation is still not optimistic. This increase and decrease have naturally ushered in new changes in the industrial structure of power batteries.
Intuitively, the position between car companies and battery suppliers has changed by 180 degrees, and the initiative is tilted towards car companies. If it used to be that car companies begged suppliers to "grab" batteries at high prices, now it's a bit turned over, and it has become that battery suppliers are desperately "grabbing" orders from car companies.
Gao, an academician of China Academy of Sciences, Professor Tsinghua University and Vice Chairman of committee of 100, said: "Looking forward to 2023, the growth rate will drop sharply this year, because the total number of electric vehicles and power batteries is already quite large. The growth rate of pure electric vehicles will decline. At the same time, the proportion of plug-in hybrid and extended-range electric will increase, and the average battery load of new energy vehicles will decrease. Therefore, the growth rate of demand for power batteries will decline. The situation of tight demand will be greatly alleviated. "
It is predicted that the price of lithium resources will further return in the second half of this year, which may be 350,000-400,000 yuan/ton. At the same time, the supply and demand of lithium resources will reach a balance this year, and there will be a surplus next year. The future price balance point is around 200,000 yuan/ton.
Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the Association, once wrote that the most important thing for battery enterprises is to bind the orders of vehicle manufacturers, because the battery capacity is overcapacity. The supply of batteries is large, but there are few customers.
Recently, Tesla's 4 millionth car in the world will be officially launched. It took only seven months to achieve the fourth 654.38+0 million vehicles, which is very remarkable. At the same time, in the investor day held not long ago, Musk unveiled the third chapter of Tesla's "secret grand plan", with the goal of achieving 100% sustainable energy by 2050. By the way, Tesla once had a crazy sales goal, that is, to achieve annual sales of 20 million vehicles by 2030.
In other words, Tesla is now a "cash cow" and a "fragrant cake" in the eyes of major power battery suppliers. Whoever can "plant" in his own field will lead the global installed capacity of power batteries. So this also explains why the Korea Economic Daily claimed in the article that the LG energy solution meets the requirements of Tesla. After all, peers are enemies.
According to public information, Tesla's battery suppliers are Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd., LG New Energy and Panasonic Battery. Among them, the standard battery life versions of Model 3 and Model Y produced by Tesla (Shanghai) factory are supported by Contemporary Amp Technology Co., Ltd., and the battery type is lithium iron phosphate battery. The long-life version is a cylindrical 2 1700 battery supported by LG New Energy, and overseas factories are provided by Panasonic and LG New Energy.
Zhang Bin, an R&D engineer from Changan New Energy Automobile Research Institute, told Automotive Intelligent New Media, "Tesla's battery suppliers are all cylindrical batteries, which are still different from BYD's battery design. Foreign media revealed that Tesla stopped cooperating with BYD, perhaps because of the problems exposed by blade batteries in the current market. But I personally think that the standard issue should be met. "
The situation is fierce, and China and South Korea compete for global power batteries.
According to the statistics of South Korea's SNE research, in 2022, the installed capacity of global electric vehicle power battery is about 5 17.9GWh, up by 7 1.8% year-on-year. The following table ranks according to installed capacity. From the first place to the tenth place are Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd., BYD, LG New Energy, Panasonic Battery, SK On, Samsung SDI, Zhongchuang Singapore Airlines, Guo Xuan Hi-Tech, Xinwangda and Funeng Technology.
If one key word is used to describe the global TOP 10 pattern of power batteries for electric vehicles in 2022, it is "one super and two strong". The so-called "One Super" refers to Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd., whose installed capacity has reached 1.9 1.6 GWh, far exceeding the second or third place, and its hegemonic posture is very obvious. BYD and LG New Energy, which are also ranked second, are "secretly competing" with installed capacity of 70.4GWh, but BYD's growth rate in 2022 reached 167. 1%, far exceeding LG New Energy's 18.5%, which is considered to give LG New Energy unlimited pressure.
The substantial increase in the installed capacity of BYD's power battery is mainly due to the rapid growth in the production and sales of its electric vehicles. For example, in 2022, its sales volume reached an astonishing 1.8685 million vehicles, and in 2023, the network transmission will hit 4 million vehicles. According to this development speed, it may be foreseeable that the total installed capacity of BYD batteries will leave LG New Energy behind, that is, this year or two.
But don't forget, this Korean battery giant is not a vegetarian, and its car companies are more global than BYD and even Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. Such as Tesla, GM, Volkswagen, Hyundai, Volvo, etc. , are all customers of LG New Energy.
If I remember correctly, Quan Yingshou, CEO of LG New Energy, once bluntly fired at Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. when interviewed by local media. "Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd.' s high dependence on China customers is a weakness, and we are in a leading position in winning global customers in Europe and the United States. We expect to surpass Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. in global market share and become the world's number one. "
However, there is a saying that under the irreversible trend of world electrification, the competition of new energy vehicles has entered the deep water area, and the competition is the strength of the whole industry chain. Just shouting is not enough.
Liu, assistant to the president of Tsinghua University Automotive Industry and Technology Strategy Research Institute, said that China has basically built a complete and competitive industrial chain of new energy vehicles, and vehicle companies have risen with the trend, with increasingly prominent product advantages, breakthroughs in key technologies and rapid development of infrastructure, gradually showing an all-round leading trend on a global scale.
Admittedly, influenced by international and geopolitical relations, Korean companies represented by LG New Energy can indeed "take advantage" on some levels. However, this is a fact that cannot be ignored. The battery, motor and electronic control of new energy vehicles in China-"Three Electricity" technology has been leading in the world, and the industrial layout is very complete. At present, China's automobile industry is rapidly evolving towards electric intelligence, and China's automobile brands are redefining new energy vehicles. These are the "moats" of new energy vehicles in China, where our confidence in participating in global competition lies, which are unmatched by Korean enterprises at present.
Conclusion According to the data of the Passenger Transport Association, in 2022, China's new energy passenger cars accounted for 63% of the world's new energy vehicle market share, which fully demonstrated China's leading position and voice in the global field. However, it is undeniable that at present, most Japanese companies still rely on the China market. In markets outside China, Japanese and Korean companies have more competitive advantages, such as power batteries.
Facing the acceleration of global electrification transformation, China new energy automobile brands are gradually entering the supply chain system of more multinational automobile enterprises, and at the same time accelerating the layout of the global market. It is true that the road to globalization is not smooth sailing, and it is destined to be full of many bumps, just like the "marriage" between BYD and Tesla battery, which can't land for a long time. However, there is a saying in China that the road is long and its Xiu Yuan is dying; If you don't stop, the future can be expected Let the bullet fly for a while, I believe time will give the final answer.
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