Good question! Because there are too many friends who only analyze stocks from a single level or angle. However, if you want to conduct an objective and accurate analysis of the complex stock market, you must analyze it from multiple levels and angles. So, what are the levels or angles of analysis? Let me tell you.
1. Fundamentals. What is the overall economic situation? Is it running upward or downward.
In a bull market, the overall economic situation must be good. It runs upward. on the contrary. In a bear market, the overall economic state must be bad. It runs downward.
Second, the financial aspect. Is the capital supply in the securities market sufficient? What is the future direction?
The A-share market is a typical capital-driven market. When the market is going well, there must be sufficient funds. On the contrary, it means insufficient funds. Therefore, when doing stocks, studying the financial aspects is also a very important aspect.
Third, the technical aspect. Regardless of wave researchers, entanglement theory researchers, or other schools, their operations must be based on the following two aspects.
1. General trend. The final analysis will be based on the determination of the broader market trend. I prefer comprehensive analysis: using wave theory, volume energy, moving averages, and combining the space, time, and structure of entanglement theory to conduct a comprehensive analysis. In this way, it is more comprehensive and can corroborate each other.
2. Mainstream hot spots. Every major market trend has mainstream hot spots that run through the whole market. It is not a hot spot on a certain day or a certain period of time. It is the mainstream that remains unchanged within the market. To master it. Because, the future market prices will be local market prices. As the number of individual stocks continues to increase, the situation of simultaneous rise and fall as in the past will no longer exist. In this way, grasping the mainstream hot spots will be the top priority in operation.
Fourth, catalysis and game. Catalysis refers to the impact of news on the market and individual stocks. Stocks catalyzed by news tend to be active and rise sharply. Individual stocks that are not catalyzed by news often do not follow the rise when the market rises.
In the stock market, some people make money and some people lose money. This creates a game. For example: when a sector rises, think that there may be good news for this sector. The sector continues to rise, and when good news about it comes out, it is often its top. As the saying goes: the day when good news comes out is when individual stocks peak. This is the game. Learn to analyze game thinking. It will be of great benefit to your operation.
Comprehensive analysis from the above levels or perspectives, and continuously improve the level of analysis. You are a stock market expert!
In practice, value investors led by Buffett usually only look at fundamentals to analyze stocks. In addition, most people focus on analyzing stocks based on technical aspects.
I would like to talk here about how to analyze stocks from a technical perspective, and what levels or angles to analyze from.
There is no doubt that the rise and fall of stocks are driven by funds, so in technical analysis, we have to analyze the changing patterns of trading volume.
Of course, it is not a simple analysis of the increase or decrease in trading volume, but also the main trading intention, which is the key to the success or failure of your stock operation.
To understand the main trading intention, you need to analyze what stage the stock is in, such as whether the stock is in the main accumulation stage or the main rising stage, etc.
When analyzing the stage of the stock, there are many technologies in the stock market, but the good and the bad are mixed. Some techniques often make it difficult for investors to analyze the exact stage of a stock, such as the wave theory. Different people often get very different answers when analyzing the same stock, so it is difficult to use it in actual combat.
I suggest that novices start by studying actual cases to analyze the stage of the stock. When you analyze a large number of stocks, you will naturally feel it.
When you can determine the stage a stock is in, your success rate in stock operations will be greatly improved.
Thanks for the invitation
At what levels should stock analysis be conducted? The first thing to look at is your philosophy. If it is a value investment concept, then it must start from the fundamentals; if it is a trend investment, then it must start from the technical aspects. Let’s briefly talk about the fundamentals and technical aspects.
Value investors hold positions for a relatively long time, can withstand loneliness, withstand retracements, and reduce the number of transactions. It usually takes one or even several bull and bear cycles to get returns.
If a value investor doesn’t know anything about a company, then he must first learn to read the company’s “Listing Announcement” or “Prospectus of Intent”. will be found in . There will be a lot of introduction to the company, what kind of industry it is engaged in, what kind of business it is mainly engaged in, what technologies it has, the structure of the company and so on.
The second thing to learn, and the most important thing, is to be able to read the company's financial report. You can understand it as a report that can show the back of the company. How the company operates at this stage will be recorded in In the financial report.
In the three major statements (balance sheet, income statement, cash flow statement), we can analyze the following contents:
Safety analysis: such as long-term solvency (asset-liability ratio, game liability ratio etc.), short-term solvency (such as current ratio, quick ratio, etc.).
Profit analysis: such as return on equity, net profit margin, etc.
Operational capability analysis: such as notes receivable, accounts receivable, accounts received in advance, inventory, etc.
Growth analysis: such as operating income, operating profit, etc.
Valuation: Through financial report data, roughly calculate the company's valuation level, such as ROE, PE, PB, free cash flow discount, etc.
Trend investors often rely on some indicators to analyze stock trends. Relatively speaking, they hold short positions and operate in swings and positions.
There are many technical indicators, such as KDJ, MACD, BOLL, CCI, etc.; there are also some moving averages, such as K line and K line shape, 5-day moving average, 10-day moving average, Guppy moving average, etc. wait.
There are also many theories: such as Gann theory, wave theory, volume-price coordination theory, etc.
No matter what method or indicator is used on the technical side, it is necessary to look at the trend and market enthusiasm to participate. The heat of capital speculation can often keep a pig flying in the sky for a long time.
In fact, no matter what method and level we use to do stock trading, we must remember that the secondary market is ultimately a transaction between people, whether it is reports or data, they are only presented. One way. Looking at the essence through phenomena, market emotions and changes in human nature are the ultimate essence of the stock market.
Stock analysis can be roughly analyzed from two levels: fundamentals and technical aspects.
The so-called fundamental analysis mainly analyzes the intrinsic value and future growth of stocks. Specifically, it is divided into macroeconomic analysis, industry analysis, and company analysis, from which the intrinsic value and future growth of the stock can be found.
The so-called technical analysis mainly analyzes the price trend of stocks in order to follow the trend. Specifically, it is divided into trend analysis method, morphological analysis method, wave analysis method, technical indicator analysis method, etc.
Stocks have been generally accepted as a form of asset investment in China today. However, because my country’s capital market has not yet been perfected, the understanding level of the majority of investors is also uneven, which has led to the The market often experiences large fluctuations, and returns on stock investments are difficult to guarantee. Despite this, more and more people are investing in the stock market, and the number of investors is growing day by day. The high returns brought by the high risks of the stock market are an important reason that attracts everyone to join it. Risks exist, but risks are different from gambling. As long as appropriate hedging measures are taken, risks can be reduced and returns increased. "The stock market is risky, so you need to be cautious when entering the market."
An effective investment strategy must be accompanied by a systematic analysis of the risks of the stock market. Risks in the stock market are divided into systematic risks and unsystematic risks.
Systemic risk refers to the impact of overall political, economic, social and other environmental factors on stock prices. It includes market risk, interest rate risk, exchange rate risk, political risk, etc. Systemic risks cannot be eliminated. For example, in the 2008 global financial crisis, according to a survey, 95% of individual investors will lose money, 4% will make a loss, and only 1% will make a profit. Therefore, if we want to avoid this For risks, we can only analyze the overall fluctuations of the stock market from the macroeconomic situation and understand the cyclical changes in macroeconomic operations, so as to decide whether to sell stocks, withdraw from the stock market, and wait for new buying opportunities.
Unsystematic risk refers to the adverse factors that cause losses to certain stocks due to certain factors. This mainly refers to the decline in the price of one or more types of stocks due to poor management of certain joint-stock companies, changes in market supply and demand, or adjustments to the industrial structure of a certain industry. It can be appropriately eliminated by establishing an investment portfolio, that is, "cannot put eggs in the same basket", select several assets with different investment returns, risks, and maturities for investment, and use the asset diversification effect to diversify the risks of individual assets. To avoid losses caused by fluctuations in individual stocks. Specific methods include term combination method, geographical combination method, investment object combination method, investment classification method, etc.
How to choose stocks? Nowadays, there are many stock trading software that can help us choose stocks. Professional investment institutions will also guide us on how to conduct stock analysis. Many old investors also have their own set of investment strategies. But comprehensively, we should look at these two aspects. Consider, that is, analyze the fundamentals and technical aspects of the stock. Fundamental analysis refers to the analysis of the current macroeconomic conditions, the industry level of the company's main business and the company's operating conditions, and determines whether it is worth investing in terms of the company's growth, stability, profitability, etc.; Technical analysis starts from the stock market, takes the dynamics and regularity of stock prices as the main object, and combines the analysis of trading volume and investment psychology to judge the price trend.
Generally speaking, fundamental analysis is mainly Predict the long-term development of a company, while technical analysis mainly predicts the rise and fall trends of stocks in the short term.
Through basic analysis, we can know which stocks to buy, while technical analysis allows us to grasp the specific timing of buying. In terms of time, technical analysis focuses on short-term analysis and is worse than basic analysis in predicting the end of old trends and the beginning of new trends. , but is not as good as fundamental analysis at predicting longer-term trends.
Successful stocks investors should combine the two analysis methods and use fundamental analysis to estimate long-term trends, while using technical analysis to judge short-term trends and determine the timing of buying and selling. Therefore, both fundamental analysis and technical analysis must be taken into consideration when investing. The learning of relevant knowledge and methods can be obtained through reading relevant books, video teaching, analyzing cases, etc., but the most important thing is practice, so we can choose one. Analyze, predict and judge the trends of individual stocks, and summarize experiences and lessons from them.
Let’s talk about some interesting things!
2. Then, after selecting the sector and direction, select the segment leaders of this sector and the targets of listed companies with strong growth potential, which means that the listed companies have core competitiveness or profitability. It is very good and has strong growth potential. The fundamentals are better, so you can feel more confident when doing transactions
3. Next, we need to analyze the trend from the K-line trend structure, at least the daily line level or above , analyze whether the target is on an upward trend or judge whether the decline has stopped
4. Finally, you must make a buying and selling trading plan based on your own trading system.
Give me an example!
After reaching a high level in the first quarter of 2019, Sugon is the segment leader in the supercomputing field.
Based on the Elliott Wave Theory, it has emerged The adjustment wave shape of the three waves of ABC. Wave A is the main down wave. Wave B adjusts and wave C declines. When MACD does not hit a new low, it proves that the strength of the decline is not enough. The short side has exhausted its power. The trend line turns red. When there is heavy volume, buy I have entered the position. I started to intervene on November 26, 2019. After going back and forth several times, I currently only have one-third of the position.
Stock analysis is generally carried out from two levels: fundamentals and technical aspects
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Fundamentals: Study the country’s macroeconomic conditions, fiscal and monetary policies, industrial policies, company revenue, position in the market, price-earnings ratio, actual return on equity, and the company’s future development potential. Through these Level research, long-term tracking to obtain ideal investment returns
Technical aspect: Most of the technical analysis is used, such as moving average MACD and other technical indicators to track the trend of stock prices, follow the trend, increase the probability, and obtain Higher returns
There is no pure fundamental analysis and technical analysis. Generally speaking, it is from the perspective of a combination of the two. Fundamentals is the basis for analyzing stock selection, and then technical analysis is used to select the actual intervention. , pure fundamentals and technical aspects are both biased. Only the combination of the two can prevent risks and obtain benefits to the greatest extent
Of course, if you have enough funds and a deep understanding of the industry , if you have a deep study of corporate finance, you can carry out industrial layout from an industry perspective. This is not stock speculation, but an investment in entities.
I use securities analysis instead of stock analysis. Because this description of securities analysis is more professional and covers a more complete scope.
Let’s talk about the definition first: Securities analysis refers to the behavior of people using various professional analysis methods to comprehensively analyze various information that affects the value or price of securities to judge the value or price of securities and their changes. , is an indispensable and important link in securities trading. Its goal is to achieve scientific investment analysis and decision-making and to maximize securities investment returns.
There are many types of securities analysis methods, and the schools are different, but they are generally divided into two schools: fundamental analysis method and technical analysis method
Fundamental analysis method
Fundamental analysis method, also called fundamental analysis, is based on the basic principles of economics, finance, accounting and investment to analyze the basic factors that determine the value and price of securities, such as macroeconomic indicators, economic policy trends, An analysis method that analyzes industry development status, product market conditions, etc., to evaluate the investment value of securities, determine the intrinsic value and market quotation of securities, and finally put forward corresponding investment suggestions.
Fundamental analysis includes three aspects: macroeconomic analysis, industry analysis and company analysis. In the process of stock analysis, if we start with macroeconomic analysis, then carry out industry analysis, and then carry out company analysis, then this kind of analysis is called "top-down". If we start with company analysis and industry analysis, and then carry out macro Economic analysis is a "bottom-up" analysis method.
Any asset has its intrinsic value. When the market price is not equal to its intrinsic value, a "pricing error" will occur. The main content of the basic analysis method is to analyze factors that can affect security prices at three levels, such as macroeconomic, industry and regional factors, and company-specific factors
The main advantage of the basic analysis method is that it can more comprehensively Grasping the basic trend of security prices is suitable for relatively long-term security price predictions; the disadvantage is that its guiding role for short-term investors is relatively weak and the accuracy of predictions is relatively low.
It can be seen that the basic analysis method is suitable for long-term investors
Technical analysis method
The technical analysis method takes the past and current market behavior of the securities market as the analysis object, using chart shapes, logic and mathematics This method is a technical method to explore some typical changes in the securities market and predict the future change trends of the securities market based on this. The basic assumption of this method is that "history will repeat itself."
The advantage of the technical analysis method is that it is based on market data, responds directly to the market, and its results are closer to market reality, and the analysis conclusions are timely. Strong, it has strong guiding significance for short-term investment. The disadvantage is that the scope of the problem considered is narrow. The long-term trend of the market cannot be effectively judged, and almost all technical indicators will respond laggingly in the face of emergencies.
Comparison of fundamental analysis and technical analysis
There are two prices for a listed company at the same time. One is the intrinsic value of the company itself, which is determined by fundamentals; the other is the current transaction price. , determined by market demand. However, it should be noted that market demand can be artificially created (in the Netherlands in the 17th century, due to speculation, a tulip bulb could be sold for the price of a villa), so the transaction price is not equal to its intrinsic value most of the time. Therefore, when investors who focus on fundamental analysis lack technical analysis methods and buy individual stocks at transaction prices, the results are often not ideal or they do not know when to close the deal after holding for a long time. Investors who focus on technical analysis, after buying stocks without basic analysis methods, are often unable to cover up good stocks due to the main force's liquidation behavior. Simply put, basic analysis solves the problem of buying securities, while technical analysis solves the problem of when to buy. Stock trading behavior is not only a manifestation of human economic activities, but also a model of game behavior between people. Any analysis method will be one-sided without the most important factor of people.
In order to better understand this phenomenon, we can use the war system to introduce securities investment analysis: a wave of market conditions is equivalent to a battle; basic analysis is equivalent to strategy from a large perspective, solving From a small perspective, the question of whether to fight and where to fight (such as Germany's eastward and westward advance during World War II) is equivalent to intelligence, which may be true or false. It solves the problem of judging the enemy's situation; technical analysis is equivalent to intelligence. Tactics deal with when to start fighting, when to end, where to start and where to end.
To sum up, fundamental analysis is a means to determine whether the market can enter and which stocks can enter. Technical analysis is a means of determining when to enter and exit individual stocks, at what price, and how much to enter and exit (everyone knows that there are bookmakers. The purpose of the bookmakers is to maximize capital gains, and to do this requires precise chip control, and this This is precisely what fundamental judgment based on fuzzy analysis cannot achieve). Only by grasping the advantages and disadvantages of these two analysis methods and implementing them step by step can we maximize the power of securities analysis.
First of all, when we invest in stocks, we cannot blindly invest in stocks, nor can we blindly follow investments. The first step is to choose the industry in which we invest. In terms of industries, we should choose sunrise industries instead of sunset industries.
First: After choosing the industry we want to invest in, we choose self-selected stocks and select a stock at random.
Second: After selecting, first see the homepage and its total market value. The total market value must not be too high, preferably around 100 billion. If the market value is too large, it will not rise easily.
Third: Let’s look at the second indicator, the price-to-earnings ratio. As for the price-to-earnings ratio, it is generally better to be below 30%.
Fourth: Let’s look at the third indicator. Including operating profit, net profit and net profit growth rate. Net profit is preferably positive.
Fifth: Let’s look at the financial data of the balance sheet.
Sixth: Next, let’s look at the indicator of return on net assets. If the return on equity is generally less than 30%, this stock is relatively good.
In summary, just look at these financial data.
If you want to look at the investment value of stocks, from a fundamental perspective, the main factors to look at are: 1. Industry, 2. Profitability, 3. Financial status. In fact, the most important thing is to look at The future earnings of the stock are the future profits of the company. This is an important factor in stimulating the rise of stocks.
How to conduct fundamental analysis and technical analysis of a stock
1. Start with the biggest macro, the current economic situation.
2. Then look at the medium view, which is where the stock belongs. Industry, the cyclicality of the industry is very important, this is
a very important thing,
3 Then there is the stock itself and the company's situation,
Marketing model, profitability, CEO, team, etc., financial status
4 Technical analysis is about some issues of price, volume, time and space, involving some mathematical models, and public announcements
There are also some very important indicators, K-line, etc.