20 17 this round of strict regulation will continue, resulting in a decline in real estate sales, construction and other indicators. Therefore, many research institutions put forward the viewpoint of "cycle theory" in their forecast reports, and think that the real estate market has entered a "small cycle" since the beginning of 20 17.
However, for the most concerned and sensitive house prices in the market, the answer given by the industry is very uniform: although the transaction volume may shrink sharply, there is no basis for a sharp drop in house prices! Especially in hot first-and second-tier cities.
Demand exceeds supply, land prices are difficult to control, and first-tier cities should not expect to reduce prices.
Under the market background of comprehensive policy tightening, the national property market began to enter a new round of cooling cycle. According to the survey, from the actual signing situation, the transaction volume of 22 cities affected by the New Deal dropped significantly, with the actual decline reaching about 40%.
According to experts' analysis, "on June 20 165438+ 10, the transaction volume continued to decrease compared with June 10. On the whole, this round of market regulation will lead to a decrease of at least 50% in the fourth quarter of 20 16 compared with the third quarter. According to this estimate, the sales area of commercial housing in China decreased by about 15% in 20 17. "
Although the transaction volume of the property market has shrunk sharply, Zhang Yu, an analyst at CICC Research Department, said that this does not mean that house prices have been falling all the way. "At the beginning of 20 17, the new housing market will see a trend of falling volume and price, but then the decline will narrow. From the second half to the end of the year, house prices will regain their upward trend, and the annual performance will once again exceed market expectations. "
Countless people hope that the hand of policy can make house prices return. However, a real estate analyst pointed out that for the current first-tier and hot second-tier cities, the role of policies is more to delay than to reverse, and "the continuous rise in first-tier housing prices" is not sensational.
Although the introduction of the order to restrict purchases and loans has limited the influx of demand, the tightening supervision of pre-sale certificates and the "price limit order" have also hit the enthusiasm of many projects. The supply of commercial housing is small, and the commercial housing market in most cities is still in short supply.
Market research data shows that under the influence of the purchase restriction policy, the downward pressure on the growth rate of new construction in 20 17 is greater. It is estimated that the growth rate of newly started area will be less than 5% in 20 17, and the supply of new houses will decrease. From 2065438 to the first nine months of 2006, the total amount of new construction increased by 6.8%, and the annual growth rate is expected to be around 10%. Before 20 16, 10 and 100 in large and medium-sized cities, the planned construction area of residential land transactions decreased by 13. 1%, and the land supply in core cities decreased significantly. It is estimated that the supply will still be controlled at 20 17.
According to the statistics of Yahao Grand Hyatt Club, in the first week of 20 16,12 (165438+1October 28th-65438+February 4th), the commercial housing (excluding affordable housing and self-occupied housing) was sold/kloc-0.
Guo Yi, director of institutional marketing of Yahao, believes that since June 2011,the transaction market of commercial housing in Beijing has gradually entered a deep downturn, and the transaction situation will continue to be sluggish in February due to the long-term sustainability of this round of regulatory policies. However, from the price trend, tightening regulation has not yet had an absolute impact on the price trend.
In the past, after the tightening of regulation, developers with many projects and large scale will take the lead in price adjustment to ease the financial pressure and lead the market into the price reduction cycle. However, in recent years, the new characteristics of the land market after being squeezed by affordable housing such as self-occupied housing make this law difficult to reproduce.
Take the land sold on 20 16 as an example, only 7 cases include pure commercial residential land, with a total planned construction area of 420,000 square meters. The largest project scale is 6,543,800 square meters, and the smallest is only 6,543,800 square meters. At present, housing enterprises are faced with the same problems of insufficient funds and less land, and fewer projects and small scale will become the main characteristics of the new housing market in the future. Therefore, the future market price of new houses will continue to be firm.
Although the policy aims to prevent the house price from rising too fast and hopes to see results in a short time, the highly differentiated regional policy shows from another angle that the policy has no intention of "overcorrecting". The policy of loosening and grasping frequently undermines prestige, and the sharp drop in house prices is not the goal of policy regulation.
In addition, attracted by the soft environment such as job opportunities, education and medical care, the original third-and fourth-tier cities continue to import population and wealth into first-and second-tier cities. With the rise of house prices and prices, people whose income is difficult to support their lives gradually flow out. It is this kind of population movement that eventually leads to "hot cities" and "super cities".
From the international experience, the process of forming a super city is the process of rising house prices and the gradual loss of non-elite people. For example, South Korea has a population of more than 52 million, including nearly 23 million in Seoul, the capital, and Incheon and Gyeonggi Province around it, accounting for 45% of the total population of South Korea. When there is a constant influx of people, housing has become the biggest demand, and people who are embarrassed by housing prices are gradually losing. According to the Statistics of Floating Population in Korea released by the Korea Statistics Office, 6 1.8% of the net outflow population in Seoul in 20 15 was related to housing. Under the loss of population, house prices have not declined, but have continued to rise. According to the statistics of KB National Bank of Korea, the average house price in Seoul is 654.38+086,000 won/flat (about 33,000 yuan/square meter), while the house price in Incheon is only 84.65438+00,000 won/flat, which is less than half of the house price in Seoul.
In China, Beijing and Shanghai are recognized as "super cities".
Although Beijing has stepped up its population control this year, the number of permanent residents in the first half of the year decreased by 6,543,800+0.8 million compared with the same period of last year, and the number of permanent residents in the sixth district of the city turned from increasing to decreasing, the total population still reached 2,654,380+0.8210.07 million, exceeding the control target of 2,654,380+0.77 million at the end of the year. Every year, new elite groups with more wealth continue to enter Beijing and Shanghai, and people who are difficult to adapt to "going north" continue to leave every year. After several changes, it will inevitably lead to a slow rise in house prices.
The influx of population in megacities has also brought about the demand for housing, resulting in a large demand and high housing prices. Therefore, the actual supply of Beijing, Shanghai and other big cities is declining, while the concentration of people flow is still increasing. Although the property market in these cities may enter an adjustment period due to the policy cycle, during which the house price may fluctuate, the overall house price market is optimistic for a long time, and the house price will rise even higher at 20 17.
You know, there is not much flour. If the land price does not fall, it will be difficult to suppress the house price.
Want to know the future trend of housing prices, the current land price should be the most intuitive reflection, and the frequent appearance of hot cities "land kings" can explain the problem. The cost of land acquisition by housing enterprises has increased. "Land grabbing tide with high land price" can summarize the land market of 20 16.
As the supply side of the property market, high land price is undoubtedly another "culprit" of high housing prices. The data shows that the average premium rate of land in 300 cities nationwide from June 5438 to September this year was 49%, an increase of 35 percentage points over the same period last year; Among them, the average premium rate of residential land was 63%, an increase of 45 percentage points over the same period last year. The latest data shows that the average land acquisition cost of the top 40 real estate enterprises 165438+ 10 exceeds 6000, which is 50% higher than that of 20 15.
More than 50% of the land cost has generally increased, which means that the expectation of future housing price increase will be stronger. The data shows that * * * there are 20 real estate enterprises that issue bonds, and this year, they have obtained 48 high-priced land with unit price or total price ranking in front of the market in 14 city. Among the 48 cities out of China, first-tier cities contributed 13 cases, with an average premium rate of 77.6%, second-tier cities contributed 33 cases, with an average premium rate of11%,and third-tier cities contributed 2 cases, with an average premium rate of 308.9%.
For cities, land resources are fixed, and in the case of limited housing inventory, competing for limited housing resources will also be the driving force for housing prices to rise.
In 20 14, the planned transaction area of pure commercial residential land in Beijing was only 2 million square meters, resulting in a sharp decrease in the pre-sale area to 6,046,500 square meters in 20 15, while the transaction area of pure commercial residential land in 20 15 was only 3 million square meters, which continued to be sluggish, resulting in a new pre-sale area of less than 4 million in 20 16. Yahao organization predicts that "it is expected that the situation will be more severe next year. This year, only 420,000 square meters of commercial housing can be sold, which will directly lead to a further decline in the pre-sale of housing next year. "
Guo Yi said that the background of unsustainable housing supply and the tightening of market supervision have caused the pre-sale volume of pure commercial housing to bottom out recently. In addition, the residential part 1 0,000% of the four land recently sold in Beijing is self-sustaining, and the situation that the saleable houses will continue to decrease in the future will continue to intensify. Except for property hoarding, a real estate enterprise, the supply and demand of pure commercial housing market in Beijing will continue to decline, but the market pattern will still be in short supply. Therefore, the market price of pure commercial housing will continue to be firm.
(The above answers were published on 2017-01-10. Please refer to the actual situation for the current purchase policy. )
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