introduce
The era of rapid growth in the real estate industry has passed, the whole industry environment is changing, and enterprises are also changing, so the constant is "law" and the change is "playing style". If this ever-changing situation is regarded as an enterprise's own "opponent", how to achieve "static braking" or "dynamic braking"?
While marveling at the outstanding achievements made by Country Garden, Vanke and Evergrande in the top three industries, we can see that the differentiation among enterprises is also intensifying. Some enterprises grow at a high speed, some are relatively stable, some are unsatisfactory, and some even quit completely ... We can't help but ask, why is the gap between enterprises so big?
Yesterday's experience has become history, and today and tomorrow are more worth grasping and looking forward to. Standing at the beginning of 20 19, what are the prospects and expectations of enterprises for the future of the industry and enterprises? To this end, Han Yizhiku published a series of articles (20 19), which comprehensively presented some prospects and plans of enterprises for industries, policies and their own development. The main contents include seven aspects: foreseeing the industry, foreseeing the strategy, foreseeing the scale, foreseeing the marketing, expecting the financing, coordinating the layout and exploring the diversity, for the reference of the industry.
Summary of this issue
The development of the real estate industry has slowed down, and the golden cycle of growth in the past 20 years no longer exists, and the industry has entered the "stock era" from the "incremental era". Under the guidance of the main tone of "housing and not speculating" and "not using real estate as a short-term means to stimulate the economy", the industry has entered a new long period of steady development.
With the normalization of supervision and the increase of market uncertainty, in the face of such an industry environment, both the market and enterprises have obvious differentiation characteristics, and they are always organically available, and the survival of the fittest is eliminated. Insist on optimistic about the future of the industry.
1, the real estate industry can still be expected in the future.
0 1
The golden cycle is gone forever, and the market uncertainty is increasing. Is it a curse or a blessing?
The long-term prosperity of China real estate market has reached its peak, and the development speed of the industry has obviously slowed down. At present, a series of regulatory policies issued by the state are aimed at ensuring the healthy and stable development of the real estate industry, but also increasing the uncertainty of the market. In the short term, this "sudden braking" brings great challenges to the triumphant housing enterprises. In the long run, it will benefit the real estate industry, thus benefiting housing enterprises. On the one hand, only by maintaining a stable development track in the future can the real estate industry provide a benign development environment for housing enterprises and avoid the risk of bursting the real estate "bubble"; On the other hand, there is still a lot of room for improvement in the quality and cultural management of China real estate, and there is still much to be done in the future.
▼ China Evergrande-The golden cycle of real estate is no longer.
The state has managed and adjusted the real estate industry reasonably, that is to say, the golden growth cycle of the real estate industry like the past 20 years is gone forever.
▼ China's overseas development-increased market uncertainty and shortened industry cycle.
Market uncertainty increases and industry cycle shortens. Under the current policy environment, it will promote the long-term healthy development of the real estate industry, and the mainland real estate market will maintain steady development in the second half of the year.
▼ Sunshine City-The development speed of the industry has slowed down, but there is still much to be done.
There is a big gap between China's real estate industry and advanced countries in terms of quality and cultural management. So there is still hope for real estate, but it will not develop at a high speed as in the past.
▼ Greentown China-short-term, long-term stability
Real estate is indeed more concerned. Judging from the situation of Greentown, it is still short-term and long-term stable. With the deepening of regulation, the downward pressure on the market in the second half of this year or next year is still great, but in the long run, it is still stable. After all, real estate is a pillar industry.
The market is not very cold, and the word "differentiation" is more appropriate.
Although the rapid development of the real estate industry is blocked, it is not pessimistic. Cities of all energy levels, as small as urban agglomerations and cities, all show a trend of "differentiation". From the perspective of different urban energy levels, the first-tier, core second-tier and strong third-tier cities have maintained a certain degree of resilience and are still favored by housing enterprises, and the demand is still relatively strong. Third-and fourth-tier cities are under greater pressure, but judging from the current urbanization rate of 59.58% in China, there is still much room for improvement compared with developed countries, and dividends still exist. From the perspective of different cities, cities that have bottomed out in regulation are slowly recovering, and cities with overheated markets will gradually cool down under the influence of regulation.
▼ Country Garden-Third-and fourth-tier cities are under great pressure, but I firmly believe that the industry will have a better tomorrow.
Country Garden always believes that the real estate industry will have a better tomorrow. Although the development of third-and fourth-tier cities is also under great pressure, Country Garden has the experience and ability to achieve a unified layout to share its potential risks.
▼ Xuhui Holding Group-the industry has entered a new long period of steady development, and the market performance of each city is very different.
The industry has entered a new long period of steady development, and the era of refined and branded competition came into being. The market performance of each city is very different, and the urban cycle dominates the market. In cities where regulation has bottomed out, the market is slowly recovering, and cities with overheated markets are gradually being regulated to cool down.
▼ Baolong Real Estate-The market is not very cold, but the regional differentiation is obvious.
The whole real estate market has not become very cold, and some northern areas may not be very good either. For example, the Tianjin project is still slow, but the Yangtze River Delta is ok.
Look at the market carefully and enhance the comprehensive competitiveness.
Under the general trend that we are cautious about the market and optimistic about the future of the real estate industry, how can enterprises cultivate the ability to cross the cycle? In the face of changes, scale may not be the only criterion for judging an enterprise, but it puts forward comprehensive requirements for financing, land acquisition and operation.
▼ Longhu Group-the ability to cross-cycle is the irregular continuous operating income.
Regarding the future of the industry, it is obvious that the concentration of the industry is concentrated in the head enterprise, but the next step is not entirely the problem of the concentration of the head enterprise, that is, the scale is not an important indicator of absolute leadership at this time. At this time, the comprehensive comprehensive competitiveness may be the core, that is, the performance and achievements of investment, land acquisition, operation and delivery, and the long-term continuous service and investment to customers on this basis is a key. There is also the company's cross-cycle ability. In fact, for real estate, the ability to cross the cycle is non-periodic continuous operating income.
▼ Shimao Real Estate-The financing environment is bad and the market uncertainty increases.
Now the uncertainty is increasing, the national financing environment is quite bad, and there will be more opportunities for enterprise cooperation.
▼ Dexin China-The industry is facing some new uncertainties in the short term and is firmly optimistic about the future of the industry.
Recently, China's domestic real estate regulation is indeed increasing, but I think the core of the government is the steady development of real estate, and the ultimate goal is the healthy development of real estate. So there may be some uncertainty in the short term, but in the medium and long term, China's real estate market space is still optimistic, so under the existing policy conditions, we will still treat the market rationally and always maintain a cautious and optimistic attitude.
2. Supervision is guided by "stability", and Yan Kuan has a chapter.
0 1 the main tone of "staying at home without speculation" remains unchanged.
The main tone of "housing and not speculating" remains unchanged, and the "three stabilities" as the main goal of real estate regulation and control remain unchanged. The regulation and control policies will continue, but the impact on housing prices, land prices and expectations will not cause big fluctuations.
▼ Vanke A- industry regulation is expected to maintain continuity and stability.
The overall economy will still face many risks and challenges in the second half of the year. At the end of July, the the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee meeting emphasized that houses must be used for living, not for speculation, and a long-term real estate management mechanism should be implemented. Industry supervision is expected to remain stable.
▼ Sunshine City-The industry situation is full of uncertainty, taking advantage of the trend and winning by quality.
The main tone of "housing and not speculating" has not changed, and the goal of "three stability" will last for a long time; "Because of the city's policy", different regulatory directions in various places and changes in the international and domestic economic situation make the industry situation full of uncertainty. The countermeasures are to conform to the general trend, actively adjust and adapt, maintain awe of the market, give play to the advantages of precision and flexibility, and do a good job in bottom line management.
▼ Xuhui Holding Group-the policy is based on stability
The real estate industry is positioned as an economic stabilizer, and the policy is based on stability, stabilizing land prices, stabilizing housing prices, stabilizing expectations, reducing leverage, and controlling the total amount.
▼ COFCO Holdings-The real estate market is generally stable and will not fluctuate too much.
China's policies have a great impact on real estate, and the central government also hopes that the house price, land price, expectation and stability will not fluctuate too much.
The attitude of strictly controlling "adding leverage" is firm but flexible.
State-owned assets supervision seems to have no rules to follow, but in fact the thinking is very clear. First of all, the current regulation is not as loose as before, but more scientific, flexible, lenient and strict, trying to find a balance point. Secondly, in terms of regulatory targets, it is mainly aimed at housing enterprises with excessive leverage, or some channels have increased the leverage of the industry, such as trust financing.
Generally speaking, real estate regulation is closely related to "leverage". A large amount of funds flowed into the real estate industry. On the supply side, housing enterprises have increased leveraged investment, and on the demand side, the leverage ratio of residents has increased. National policy regulation still depends on the "self-discipline" of each subject.
▼ Longhu Group-The strength of policy regulation depends in part on the self-discipline of developers.
Both the government and developers are seeking their own balance point, which requires developers to be very self-disciplined and wait for opportunities to emerge.
▼ Longguang Real Estate-Policy control is targeted
At present, the financing policy of the whole real estate is indeed tightening, but careful analysis shows that this tightening is mainly aimed at two aspects. One is that the leverage is too high, and the other is that some product categories and channels in the industry have increased the leverage of the industry, such as trust. So these policies are targeted.
▼ Baolong Real Estate-Real Estate Control Determination Visible
This time, the state's attitude towards real estate can no longer be leveraged has been very firm and will not change in a short time.
▼ Shenzhen Holdings-Tension has eased since the second half of the year.
Since the second half of the year, there have been some subtle changes in the regulation mode of the whole market, which are not as monolithic as before, or there are no signs of loosening. No matter at the regulatory level, pre-sale approval level, consumer sentiment level, and bank level, they will relax more or less and change their nervous attitude in the first half of the year, but they have not given clear guidance or window guidance at the policy level, saying that this piece is not limited to purchase or sale. I haven't seen this before.
03 Financing has become a * * * knowledge, but the relative advantages of high-quality enterprises are prominent.
Since April, financing supervision has continued to increase, including the tightening of financing channels such as trust, overseas debt and development loans. As a capital-intensive industry, capital is the "life gate" of housing enterprises, and this series of financing supervision can be described as "knocking" for housing enterprises. The most direct impact is that investment slows down and the land market gradually returns to rationality. Under the guidance of "not using the real estate market as a short-term means to stimulate the economy", it is expected that the real estate monetary policy will continue to tighten. However, when shuffling, the relative advantages of high-quality enterprises are more obvious, and it is not difficult for such enterprises to adapt, while small and medium-sized enterprises face greater challenges.
▼ Vanke A housing financing will face certain pressure, and it is not difficult for high-quality enterprises to adapt.
With the continuous tightening of financial supervision, housing financing will face certain pressure. It may not be so difficult for enterprises with good reputation and stable operation to adapt. To treat the market, we should "fear the market, follow the trend and change with time."
▼ Sunac China-Be cautious about this subversive financing supervision.
The tightening of the financing side is subversive and unprecedented. The adjustment of financing end is the same order of magnitude as the macro-control adjustment in June 20 16. In this environment, the land price is definitely a downward trend, because the pressure on housing prices is relatively large and the sales pressure is relatively large. We must treat this financing adjustment with special care.
▼ Sunshine City-financing supervision lasts at least 1 year.
The regulatory policy of real estate financing is getting tighter and tighter, and it is predicted that this trend will continue for more than 1 year.
▼ China Aoyuan-Real estate monetary policy will continue to tighten.
Under the policy background of "no real estate speculation" and "one city, one policy" in China real estate industry, the monetary policy of real estate will continue to be tightened.
▼ Weizhou Real Estate-Financing tightening has become industry knowledge.
The state has tightened the financing of the whole real estate industry, especially in the second half of this year, which is also an understanding of the industry. In the past, the real estate industry could be regulated from the aspects of selling price and purchase restriction, so now it is more from financing. Whether it is pre-financing, trust or even bank loans, the cards may be tight.
The land market is cooling down, and investment opportunities may be ushered in at the end of the year.
Undoubtedly, this round of regulation has made the land market cool down and the possibility of land price going down increased. However, under the financial pressure, many enterprises slow down or stop taking land, which is an excellent opportunity for housing enterprises with relatively abundant funds. In addition, the sales market is also facing certain pressure, and the biggest pressure is the 38th tier cities.
▼ Sunac China-The land market is going down, so investment needs to be cautious.
Now the land market is slowly going down the channel, the lowest point is at the end of the year, or maybe next year, so don't worry about investment.
▼ China Jinmao-There will be land acquisition opportunities in the second half of the year.
Many cities have made radical land supply plans this year, but in fact only about 40% of them have been completed, which means that major cities in China will increase their efforts in the second half of this year.
▼ Zheng Rong real estate-regulation is normalized, but there is an opportunity.
This round of regulation in the second half of the year will definitely have an impact on the land market, and the land market will definitely upgrade. If I guess correctly, it should be from September to 10 to the end of the year. Regulation should be normal, so I took advantage of this opportunity.
▼ Longguang Real Estate-The land market will gradually cool down, which is an opportunity for high-quality enterprises.
With the tightening of the overall policy, it is expected that the land market will gradually cool down and the land price will go down in the future, which should be an opportunity for some enterprises with very healthy cash flow and stable financial leverage.
▼ Caesar Group-the new housing market shows a trend of rising first and then falling.
The central and local governments continue to implement the supervision mode of policy and classified regulation, and the new housing market transactions in large and medium-sized cities across the country show a trend of rising first and then falling.
▼ Sunac China-great sales pressure and obvious urban differentiation.
Financing is difficult to overlap sales, and the sales pressure will be particularly great in the second half of the year, mainly from the pressure of money and mortgage. From the perspective of urban energy level, there is no problem in first-and second-tier cities and strong third-and fourth-tier cities, because there is no inventory, and the inventory is very small, and these cities are affected by government price limits, and most new houses are upside down. Third-and eighth-tier cities are still under great pressure, mainly because their housing prices are not cheap and their purchase expectations will gradually change, which is also determined by this attitude of the central government.
summary
The golden cycle of the real estate industry is gone forever, and the industry has entered a new long period of steady development. Regulation is normalized and market uncertainty increases, but the ultimate goal is to ensure the healthy and stable development of the real estate industry. Since ancient times, the constant overweight of regulatory policies has brought great challenges to housing enterprises, but there are also many opportunities in the changes, such as the cooling of the land market, which will usher in excellent investment opportunities. In addition, opportunities for enterprise cooperation are also increasing.
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