Hacken Lee, an executive of a garment factory in Foshan, said that the factory had just resumed production because the company's largest American customer cut off all orders, and it was in a situation of "nothing to do". Now that the whole factory has a holiday in March, many colleagues have begun to find their own way out because there is still no hope.
In the face of the epidemic situation in which the front line continues to extend, there is a saying circulating in the workshop, "After the home game in the first half and the foreign relay in the second half, it will be crowded with foreign businessmen." Foreign traders who want to recover their losses after the domestic epidemic has been controlled continue to have no work to do because the overseas epidemic has caused the demand to shrink.
Statistics from the General Administration of Customs show that from June 5438 to February 2020, the total value of China's foreign trade exports was 2.04 trillion yuan, down 15.9% year-on-year. Last year's trade friction has not been resolved, and this year's epidemic is even worse. Pulling the "export", one of the economic troika, has been unable to do so.
The freight is too expensive
Known as the "barometer" of China's foreign trade, the Canton Fair was postponed.
According to the Guangdong Provincial Department of Commerce, due to the current global epidemic, the127th Spring Canton Fair will not be held on April 15 as scheduled.
As a major foreign trade province, Guangdong bears the brunt of this "foreign trade crisis", with its foreign trade exports falling by 17.5% in June and February. Even if the Spring Fair can be held as scheduled, the number of exhibitors this year is worrying.
Near the Canton Fair site, there is a Pazhou Furniture City. Because of the proximity, most of the home building materials stores here originally came to attend the Canton Fair, but this year's situation has become different. "If our overseas customers basically don't come, it's meaningless for us to participate." A number of furniture city owners expressed the same wish to the reporter of South Window.
At the scene of the Canton Fair, foreign buyers are visiting.
Zhejiang, which is also a big foreign trade province, has a hard time, with the total import and export value falling by more than 10% in June and February. Zhou Dewen, president of Zhejiang Private Investment Enterprise Association, said that many enterprises can't last three months.
In places with developed export-oriented economies such as Yiwu, just as the production and sales end is gradually recovering, the activities of many cross-border e-commerce groups have stagnated due to the closure of overseas e-commerce and poor logistics.
"In addition to the reduction in orders, the biggest worry now is that the freight is too expensive!" During the telephone conversation, Zhang Ze's voice was hysterical.
Zhang Ze is engaged in Yiwu arts and crafts export trade, and its customers are mainly from the west coast of the United States. In the past, most of his goods were transported by air or by three major international express delivery. However, due to the suspension of various lines, almost all the goods in Yiwu have fallen to the three major international express delivery companies.
February 19, Yiwu China Commodity City International Trade City Zone 1, merchants buy toys.
According to the delivery cycle, the courier company provides different package options. Handicrafts are heavy and do not pursue timeliness, so Zhang Ze generally chooses the cheapest one. But a while ago, he received a notice from the courier company that due to the tight shipping space in a special period, he would no longer provide cheap packages.
In desperation, Zhang Ze can only choose a medium set meal. But in a few days, the middle one will be gone, so we can only choose the highest one. Zhang Ze calculated an account. "Now the freight almost ate up my profit. Last week, I exported 300,000 goods and only earned 2,000. Some low-priced goods can't be made, and there are few orders now. I don't know how long this day can last. "
Zhang Ze's experience is not unique. According to the reporter's investigation, the parcels of the three major international express delivery companies have been adjusted frequently recently. In view of the dynamic changes of the epidemic situation, the freight rates in various places have also changed greatly. In the process of transportation, some merchants even encounter the situation that the goods are tossed around, unable to reach the destination, and finally sent back to China. It is equivalent to spending an expensive freight in vain.
Exchange rate fluctuation is another worrying thing. Generally, the account period of foreign trade industry to overseas customers is 1-2 months. If the exchange rate fluctuates greatly during this period, it is possible to earn more or less. But the recent situation is that you lose more and earn less.
The reduction of orders, coupled with the "long journey" of goods and the fluctuation of exchange rate, can be used to describe the state of individual foreign trade households in a sentence by Zhang Ze: "Since the outbreak, my heart has been hanging and not practical."
Where do you work?
If bosses are "worried", then wage earners are more "supportive".
Xiao Xie has been on holiday for a week and spent a few days at home playing crazy games. Now he is a little tired. Xiao Xie works in a watchmaking factory in Chang 'an Town, Dongguan. On March 23, the factory issued a notice, because customers reduced orders and had overcapacity, they had a temporary holiday for eight weeks.
Due to the Spring Festival holiday and the epidemic, the factory's salary has not been paid this year. If you resign immediately, the factory will pay employees two months' salary. Xiao Xie still has ten thousand yuan in savings, so he is not in a hurry to resign. But according to his observation, some playful "moonlight" colleagues have started looking for jobs in other factories.
"How can it be so easy to find a job now?" When the reporter from Window of the South further inquired about his colleagues' employment situation, Xiao Xie laughed. "There is a lot of foreign trade here in Chang 'an Town, and it's too late to quit now. What should we do?"? ".I heard that a friend made a fortune making masks during the Chinese New Year, but now the domestic production capacity is not very good. "
Workers are loading finished furniture for export in Nankang Furniture Industrial Park, Ganzhou City.
Since February, the myth that "the mask machine is the printing machine" is no secret in the textile industry. After the outbreak of the epidemic, more than 30,000 mask manufacturing enterprises have been established nationwide, and some small workshops with incomplete qualifications have achieved a monthly income of "10 million yuan" by relying on several mask machines.
Although the production threshold of masks is not high, there are still a few enterprises that can transform medical protective products. It is difficult for enterprises far away from the textile industry to find raw materials and mechanical channels in time. Faced with the opportunity of "domestic saturation and overseas shortage", and because there is no export qualification, we cannot enjoy this wave of dividends.
The first choice for more foreign trade enterprises is to stop production and optimize employees, and reduce cost pressure by stopping work and laying off employees.
Wang Meng, the head of a foreign trade company specializing in toys in Dongguan, told reporters that at present, the number of employees in their company has been reduced from 1500 to 300. Take leave indefinitely until the foreign trade environment improves, and encourage employees to find their own way out.
There are also companies that are more restrained in layoffs and take the form of no pay or salary reduction, hoping to tide over the difficulties with employees. Xiao Deng works in an energy-saving lighting company in Foshan, and the company has been in arrears for three months.
Xiao Deng revealed to reporters that although he understood the company's situation, he could not persist. Private colleagues also questioned "whether this violates the labor law. It is more enjoyable to lay off employees directly on your body. "
According to the survey data of enterprises, as of March 27th, 2020, the number of import and export enterprises in China has reached more than 64 1 1,000. Xin, vice minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, believes that with the further spread of the international epidemic, the situation of foreign trade import and export may further deteriorate.
On the one hand, enterprises stop production and increase layoffs. On the other hand, the recruitment of enterprises is shrinking and there are insufficient employment opportunities in the market. The population engaged in foreign trade-related industries reached 65.438+0.8 billion. How to solve their future livelihood and where to go? Now it seems that the problem is not easier than in the 2008 financial crisis.
continue
The financial crisis caused heavy losses to the "export" carriage.
At that time, it was the honeymoon period when China joined the World Trade Organization and integrated into the global production chain, and the processing trade developed rapidly. Since 200 1, the average annual export growth has been 1.5 times the GDP growth, and the export is the fastest among the troika.
By 2006, the contribution of exports reached its peak-36%. However, after the subprime mortgage crisis spread around the world, export-oriented economies suffered a serious impact. Only three years later, the proportion of exports fell to 24.5%. It was also at this time that China began to launch the "4 trillion investment plan", trying to shift the economic power to investment and consumption.
In the era of globalization, export-oriented economy is more vulnerable to the international situation, and "black swan" events such as war, plague and economic crisis may cause great losses to the economy. In order to make the economy healthier, China began a long process of structural adjustment.
In the port area of Yiwu Port, workers are loading goods into containers and preparing to send them to Jordan.
Although it is not ideal, compared with developed countries, the proportion of consumption in GDP is still insufficient, but the proportion of exports has been adjusted to about 19%. This is also one of the main reasons why China's overall economy did not fluctuate greatly in the face of import and export sanctions in the Sino-US trade friction.
However, even though the proportion of exports is declining, the foreign trade industry, which mainly focuses on labor-intensive products, is still characterized by attracting blue-collar workers and has contributed a lot of employment opportunities to China. Some economists have judged that once the tide of foreign trade closure comes, about one-third (54 million) employees will face unemployment.
According to the investigation by the reporter of "Window of the South", there is a common phenomenon in the supply chain of foreign trade industry. Suppliers dare not do it, dare not credit; The factory dare not do it, and there is no way to buy materials in cash; Facing factories and customers, foreign trade companies are in a dilemma.
The stagnation of liquidity also stops economic activities and forms a vicious circle. The cash flow of foreign trade is extremely important. As Zhou Dewen said, "Most enterprises can't live for three months". It is precisely because they don't pay back the money for three months that the capital chain will be difficult to connect.
Nowadays, from the central government to local governments, various measures to "stabilize foreign trade" are being stepped up. Zhongshan, Minister of Commerce, in the article "Actively Respond to the Epidemic and Stabilize the Basic Market of Foreign Trade and Foreign Investment", faced up to all kinds of challenges faced by China, including the difficulty of receiving orders for performance and the increase of trade barriers, and stressed the need to increase financial, insurance, fiscal and taxation support to solve the outstanding problems faced by foreign trade enterprises such as rising costs and tight capital chain.
"You can choose Japan, South Korea, ASEAN and other markets. The epidemic situation is relatively light and the transportation distance is close. " For some specific adjustment measures of foreign trade enterprises, He Weiwen, a senior researcher at Chongyang Financial Research Institute of Renmin University of China, gave such suggestions. "Foreign trade enterprises can also increase online negotiations and transactions, adjust product structure in time, and transfer some sales to the domestic market."
"Like the financial crisis in 2008, we should stick to it at this time. If you can't hold on, you will die. Hold on, there is hope. " Hacken Lee, a veteran who has been engaged in foreign trade for more than ten years, told reporters that he will continue this time.
(Hacken Lee is a pseudonym in the text)
Editor | Tan Baoluo
Typesetting | Stan
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