From the data, everything is improving, but can retailers wait until the pause button pressed by the epidemic is released?

Author/Shili ID/ Lingshouke

Under the epidemic situation, Ann has laid eggs.

Recently, the Japanese corporate good product plan announced that its performance had deteriorated sharply under the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic, and its American subsidiary was in debt of $64 million, and it has applied to the US court for bankruptcy protection.

Coincidentally.

Brooks, a well-known American clothing retailer, also announced that it had filed for bankruptcy in the US court.

This old American clothing brand with a history of more than 200 years represents a weather vane. Brooks's ending completely pushed the retail winter to a climax. Its bankruptcy is a great loss for the United States and a "warning".

Previously, the US retail industry had long been "dead everywhere".

Statistics show that, especially after the second quarter, the number of bankrupt enterprises in American retail industry is increasing.

A large number of retail enterprises all over the world are facing great difficulties and deep whirlpool. Thousands of shops closed down, went bankrupt, closed stores and laid off employees. More and more world-renowned retail enterprises collapsed before dawn.

1

The fallen global retail giant

It's not just the American subsidiary of MUJI that is affected. In the first half of this year, the sales of MUJI in Japanese stores also dropped by nearly half, while in China, the same-store sales in China dropped all the way after 20 16, and the trend has not stopped.

Under the impact of the epidemic, the list of retail enterprises in bankruptcy liquidation is still increasing.

On July 8, Ascena, a well-known American clothing retailer, announced that it had filed for bankruptcy in a US court. Ascena owns many women's wear brands such as Ann Taylor and LOFT, and it will close at least 1, 200 stores. Previously, Victoria's secret filed for bankruptcy reorganization in June due to a sharp drop in sales.

In addition to clothing, catering enterprises are also "trapped".

On June 23, GNC, the largest health food chain brand in the United States, filed for bankruptcy, hoping to continue its normal operation in the process of rectifying subsequent debts and completing the sale.

Starbucks is also announcing that it will close 400 traditional stores in the next 18 months, and at the same time develop and expand stores with non-contact services such as roadside meals and driving orders.

In fact, since the outbreak of the epidemic, more and more world-renowned retail enterprises have been hit hard and even withdrawn from the historical stage.

According to the data, the commercial output of the United States has reached 3604 this year, a year-on-year increase of 26%. Among them, the increase in June this year was 609, a year-on-year increase of 43%.

According to the analysis of relevant industry insiders, at the end of the third quarter, there will be a wave of bankruptcy in the retail industry. If (the United States) still can't control the epidemic, September and 10 are the real disasters.

It is in this environment that the speed of bankruptcy of American enterprises is accelerating, the number of bankrupt enterprises is rising and the growth rate is expanding.

Even Uniqlo, which has been in the altar for many years, has not been spared.

The financial report recently released by Uniqlo's parent company, Japan Fast Retailing Group, shows that due to the epidemic, the company's net loss reached 9.82 billion yen by the end of May, and Uniqlo's business income and profits in major overseas markets all dropped sharply.

Inditex, the Spanish clothing giant of ZARA's parent company, said that it would close 1200 stores worldwide in the next two years. Inditex has nearly 7,500 retail stores in 96 countries/regions around the world, and the stores that plan to close permanently account for about 16% of the total global stores.

According to the financial report for the first quarter of 2020 released by Inditex, during the epidemic, 88% of its stores were forced to close, and global sales decreased by 44% year-on-year, resulting in serious losses.

Judging from the recently released fourth quarter results of Nike's fiscal year 2020 (the period is from March to May), it achieved operating income of $37.403 billion, down 4% year-on-year.

By the end of May, in the fourth fiscal quarter of fiscal year 2020, Nike's operating income reached $63130,000, which was lower than the expected $7.38 billion, down 3.8 14% year-on-year, and its quarterly net loss was $790 million (about RMB 5.6 billion), down 179.88% year-on-year.

With a huge loss of 5.6 billion, Nike's market value has shrunk by three rooms, and the person in charge claimed to the employees that layoffs were coming.

Some industry organizations predict that the total number of closed stores in the United States may reach a new high of 25,000-25,000 this year, of which about 55%-60% are located in American shopping centers, which will affect the department store industry.

Outside the United States, in Britain, in addition to Secret, Debenhams of Kath Kidston, a famous British brand, and online menswear retailer TM Lewin have also declared bankruptcy in recent months.

Since the spread of the "black swan" in the retail industry, thousands of enterprises have gone bankrupt and liquidated, and the upcoming September is the peak sales season in the United States, which is the best time for many retailers to make achievements and engage in sales promotion.

Many people in the industry predict that if the epidemic situation in the United States is not effectively controlled in September, many enterprises will lose an important "turnover opportunity" and more retail enterprises will appear on the list of closed stores.

2

Early emergence of business problems

It is also "expected" that MUJI will be delisted in the US market.

According to the data, MUJI officially entered the American market in 2006. At present, there are 18 stores in the United States, with annual sales of about $654.38+0.2 billion, accounting for 2.5% of the revenue of MUJI. However, in the past three fiscal years, the US market has been losing money.

Since the outbreak of the epidemic, all the American 18 MUJI stores have closed down, and the huge rental cost has aggravated the revenue pressure of American companies.

According to the announcement, the American subsidiary of MUJI adopted various ways to improve its business during the epidemic, such as expanding its customer base and negotiating rents. However, due to the continuous expansion of the epidemic and the closure of stores, its sales revenue has fallen sharply.

However, in the China market, the trend of MUJI is still sluggish.

Perhaps it is the difference in brand concept. Over the years, MUJI has never let go of its pride in terms of goods and prices, while the benchmark brands in China market are "shopping" with price as the gimmick. Retailers such as Netease YEATION, Xiaomi Youpin, Youpin, NOME have risen rapidly, which has impacted the "high above" MUJI.

In this analysis, the industry does not attach importance to localization, which is the main reason why MUJI is "acclimatized" in foreign markets.

For different markets at home and abroad, the products sold by MUJI have not been specially adjusted, and the simple and simple product design is also easy to be imitated. Under the influence of taxes and tariffs, the foreign price of MUJI will be much more expensive, and high price and high quality do not completely correspond.

But this year, MUJI put down its "shelf" and entered the convenience store market in Beijing and Shanghai. According to its official introduction, the goal of MUJI convenience store is community commerce, which provides localized services for local communities by going deep into various communities in the city.

According to the report, Muji's convenience store is a place where high-quality convenience stores, cafes, offices and leisure are gathered to provide convenience and support for people's workplace life.

Muji seems to have changed, but I wonder if the market will continue to give opportunities.

In fact, in order to solve the brand dilemma, MUJI has already made a series of "cross-border" attempts in China, including launching sub-brands such as restaurants and hotels, and this time it is aimed at the community commercial market. However, it is not known whether these derivative sub-brands can help Muji out of the predicament.

The American subsidiary of MUJI is one of more than 1000 companies that filed for bankruptcy due to the epidemic. The epidemic has swept the global retailers, and filing for bankruptcy is also a way for companies to cope.

Brooks, an American retail giant, has laid off nearly 700 people in the United States and closed 20% of its stores since June this year. So now it has entered the next step of bankruptcy.

Analysts pointed out that the United States has restarted its economy for more than 1 month, but the economic situation and epidemic prevention and control have not improved significantly.

Before the outbreak of the epidemic, many bankrupt enterprises were already facing the situation of tight capital chain and sharp decline in sales because of poor management. The epidemic only accelerated their bankruptcy process.

three

Crisis? Change planes?

Although thousands of enterprises filed for bankruptcy, this does not necessarily mean the bankruptcy of the company.

Many companies will use bankruptcy procedures to get rid of debts and close unprofitable businesses, thus focusing more on profit strategies.

At the same time, in line with the "self-help" mode of domestic retailers, in order to get through the epidemic crisis as soon as possible, Topshop, H& and many other retail enterprises; M and others took the same way as Starbucks and ZARA, that is, closed many stores around the world and started online sales.

In order to cope with the crisis, I hope to resist the cold winter of the industry.

According to the data, when ZARA's parent company announced the store closing plan, it said that it would invest about 3 billion US dollars to promote the online operation of its chain brands, hoping to increase the proportion of online sales from 14% in 2065 and 438+09 to 25% in 2022.

Compared with the sadness of physical retail, the e-commerce business has indeed made up for some sales. The data shows that the sales of the US e-commerce platform reached the level of the shopping season at the end of last year.

Another set of data about the sharp increase in online retail sales, the data released by the US Department of Commerce recently showed that the seasonally adjusted retail sales of American e-commerce in the first quarter of 2020 was $65.438+0603 billion, up 2.4% from the previous month and 654.38+04.8% from the same period last year.

In the first quarter, the total retail sales in the United States was $65,438 +0.3635 trillion, down 1.3% from the previous month and up 2. 1% from the same period last year. In the first quarter, the proportion of e-commerce retail amount to total retail amount was 1 1.8%.

From this perspective, online is also a "life-saving straw" for physical retail, but its drawbacks and difficulties exist at the same time.

First of all, the proportion of online sales is not large enough, and it will take time and cost to fully support and make up for the past epidemic losses. In addition, the distribution cost increased greatly during the epidemic, and the return rate of many retailers even exceeded 50%, coupled with intensified competition, which pushed up the overall cost.

Finally, whether there is demand outside the online channel of physical retail is also a problem to be considered. It is difficult to completely restore the retail industry to normal only by online.

According to the data released by the US Department of Commerce on Thursday, the monthly retail sales rate in the United States was announced in June, recording 7.5%, which was better than the market forecast of 5%, and the previous value was revised from 65,438+07.70% to 65,438+08.2%. As more enterprises reopened, retail sales data exceeded expectations for the second consecutive month.