Since 2000, the proportion of affordable housing sales has shown an obvious downward trend, and it was not until around 2005 that it gradually stabilized. At the same time, the proportion of ordinary residential sales shows an obvious upward trend.
According to the data of 1998-20 10, the sales area and sales volume of affordable housing, ordinary houses and villas (including high-grade apartments) have the following changes: in terms of sales area, the growth rate of ordinary houses and villas (including high-grade apartments) is as high as 880% and 1 122%. From the perspective of sales area and sales proportion, the proportion of ordinary houses shows a trend of first decreasing and then increasing, and the sales area and sales proportion are between 80% and 90%, accounting for the vast majority of the entire housing market. The sales area of villas (including high-grade apartments) has increased from 3. 19% to 4.52%, which is even more obvious in terms of sales, from 7.9 1% to 10.46%, and it also occupies a place in the whole housing market. Comparatively speaking, the sales area of affordable housing once rose from 15.39% to the peak of 22.69% in 2000, but then it continued to drop to 2.94%, and the sales proportion dropped from 8.60% to10.55% in 20 10.
To sum up, compared with ordinary houses and villas (including high-end apartments), the total sales of affordable housing increased slowly, while the proportion of sales decreased significantly; The total sales volume of ordinary houses and villas (including high-grade apartments) increased rapidly, and the proportion of sales increased. In addition, the proportion of sales of affordable housing dropped significantly, while the proportion of ordinary housing continued to rise.
The main reasons why affordable housing can't sell ordinary houses and villas are:
1, power supply is insufficient. The development of ordinary houses and villas (including high-grade apartments) can give a lot of blood transfusion to local finance through land transfer and related taxes and fees, while affordable housing is highly policy-oriented and planned, so it needs local financial support to enjoy preferential policies on land and taxes, and the enthusiasm of local governments to promote the development of affordable housing is generally not high; For developers, the price of affordable housing is low, the profit is thin, such as non-special circumstances (such as government compensation clauses), and there is a lack of development motivation.
2. Restrictions on procurement qualifications. Affordable housing in all parts of the country will be provided with certain purchase qualifications, and having local urban household registration is often a necessary condition, which excludes a large number of groups with strong consumption desires such as cross-city floating population and farmers entering cities.
3. The market positioning is awkward. First of all, compared with ordinary commercial housing, affordable housing has certain advantages in price, but there is often a certain gap with ordinary commercial housing in location and construction quality, which leads some low-and middle-income consumers to face a dilemma when choosing affordable housing. Secondly, the function and consumption orientation of affordable housing are relatively broad and vague, and the pertinence is not strong. Construction often begins before purchase, and the development efficiency and acceptance are often not as good as the former.
The above-mentioned reality has caused the slow growth of the total supply and demand of affordable housing, and the proportion of supply and demand has continued to decline. In recent years, with the rapid advancement of urbanization, a large number of other forms of affordable housing, such as relocated houses, farmers' resettlement houses and public rental housing (low-rent housing), have appeared, meeting the housing needs of a large number of new urban residents or urban low-income classes. In some areas, their supply and sales obviously exceed the affordable housing. Regardless of policy setting or market positioning, the positioning of traditional affordable housing needs to be re-examined.
Urbanization has promoted the hot sale of houses.
Research shows that urbanization is the main reason for the continuous growth of sales of ordinary houses and villas (including high-end apartments). The main factors that affect the sales of all kinds of houses are: urban population, per capita disposable income of urban residents, per capita GDP and average selling price of houses.
Even for villas (including high-grade apartments), the increase in urban population explains the increase in sales volume more than the per capita income of urban residents, which shows that urbanization is the most important force to promote the demand for urban housing in China. In the process of urbanization, China's housing demand has gradually shifted from the planned system to the market system, and owning urban housing has gradually become an explicit and implicit identity symbol of "city people". From the dominant aspect, urban housing is often tied with urban welfare resources such as household registration, education and social security. From the hidden aspect, housing has gradually become one of the main symbols of family and individual wealth and status.
It is under the above background that with the continuous rise of urban population, residential consumption has been strongly supported and shown strong rigidity; Of course, the overall enhancement of national economic strength and the improvement of residents' income make it possible for residents' consumption to grow continuously, but income growth is not the direct reason for promoting residents' consumption. This is because, with the growth of per capita income, house prices also show the same growth trend, and pure income growth is not enough to become the driving force for residential sales growth. The increase in sales volume with housing prices mainly stems from the following reasons: First, the housing demand of urban residents is relatively rigid, and the urgent demand for housing and the increase in income make the price elasticity of housing demand smaller; Second, with the rise of housing prices, its wealth effect appears, and the investment and speculation components in consumption gradually increase.
Changes in sales of three types of houses
First of all, from the perspective of total supply, the total supply of affordable housing and villas (including high-end apartments) is relatively close. The construction area and completed area of 20 10 are about 5% of that of ordinary houses. The difference is that the supply of affordable housing has been declining in recent years, while villas (including high-grade apartments) are on the rise.
Judging from the general trend of the change of the sales rate, the sales rate of all kinds of houses experienced the process of first falling and then rising, and it was at a historical low in 2007, reflecting the process that residential sales gradually picked up from the initial stage of the development of the real estate market and then gradually became rational. Relatively speaking, the average annual sales rate of affordable housing is about 12%, with little change; The average annual sales rate of ordinary houses reaches 20%, while the average annual sales rate of villas (including high-end apartments) reaches 28%, and both of them have obvious upward trends in recent years. The above phenomenon shows that compared with ordinary houses and villas (including high-end apartments), the potential demand for affordable housing is stronger, and the saleable stock is digested the most, but its proportion in the total supply continues to decline; The sales rate of villas (including high-end apartments) has been at a high level, but even as the sales rate rises, the supply continues to expand.
To sum up, from 1998 to 20 10, the sales volume and sales proportion of ordinary houses and villas (including high-grade apartments) are generally on the rise, and the promotion of urbanization and the transformation of supply and demand mechanism in the housing market are the main reasons for their sales growth. However, in recent years, the sales rate of the above two types of houses has been rising continuously and has been at a high level, which should be paid attention to; Comparatively speaking, the total sales volume of affordable housing has not increased with the promotion of urbanization and the improvement of residents' income level, and the proportion of sales has even continued to decline.
In view of the above situation, it is suggested that the reform and regulation of housing market should focus on two aspects: ensuring supply and adjusting structure:
(1) Guaranteed supply. From the comparison of the sale rates of various houses, it can be seen that ensuring the housing supply of low-and middle-income groups is the key. According to relevant estimates, during the Twelfth Five-Year Plan period, China needs to build a new housing construction area of 5.4 billion square meters, and the housing demand of low-and middle-income groups such as farmers and urban poor will account for a large proportion. This group has a huge number and the housing demand is urgent. Housing security is not only related to whether this group can really enjoy the urban welfare system, but also related to the harmonious and stable development of society. For the housing security of low-income groups, first, do a good job in system design, giving consideration to efficiency and fairness; The second is to solve a large number of sources of funds for housing construction. In the system design, we should avoid the coverage blind area of affordable housing supply policy. Traditional affordable housing is aimed at low-income groups with urban household registration, while demolition and resettlement houses are aimed at people who lost their original residences or land in the process of urbanization, and a large number of migrant workers and farmers who do not meet the above conditions are excluded. It is suggested that in addition to the special affordable housing (such as relocated houses and resettlement houses) with compensation, the supply system of affordable housing with public rental housing and low-rent housing as the main body should be gradually constructed, and different levels of rent subsidy standards should be implemented for consumers with different income levels instead of different types of housing, so as to gradually realize the parallel operation of the supply system of affordable housing. In terms of the source of funds for the construction of affordable housing, in addition to financial support, we can advocate social security funds, various insurance funds and other capital that pursues long-term stable returns to enter the construction market of affordable housing.
(2) adjust the structure. First, guide and regulate the supply structure of residential products. In view of the high sales rate of high-end residential buildings, we can adjust and control them by strengthening information guidance and adjusting tax leverage to avoid further decline in their investment efficiency and prevent the structural situation of sales and vacancy from becoming more serious; At the same time, through preferential policies in credit, land, taxes and fees, we will guide and encourage resource development to tilt to the low-end residential market appropriately. The second is to guide the transformation of urban residents' housing consumption concept. For the lower-middle income groups, we should gradually loosen the housing property rights from the benefits of urban household registration, social security and children's education, and on this basis, guide them to effectively use affordable housing to solve basic housing requirements; For consumers with middle-income and above, the supply is mainly solved through the market model, and at the same time, the basic consumer property of the house is gradually restored, the investment property is weakened, and the housing consumption psychology of this group is guided to return to normal. Third, we should pay attention to adjusting the imbalance between regions. For regions and cities with high overall vacancy rate, it is necessary to control the supply of land indicators to prevent further over-investment, and at the same time guide a large number of urban groups to move to small and medium-sized towns or nearby urbanization to avoid bringing greater pressure on urban resources such as housing, social security and education in first-tier cities ~