Words? |? Yuan Guiyuan
No one expected that the Spring Festival in China in 2020 would be hastily opened in this way, with people wearing masks, disinfectant and goggles, retrograde people, the "cloud supervision" Huoshenshan Hospital of 60 million people, and closing cities and villages. ...
This ancient festival, which lasted for about a hundred years in China, tested and tempered China, an ancient country, a great country and its people in such a painful and heroic way in the early 1920s.
The Spring Festival in 2020, even the first quarter starting on the 20th, will definitely go down in history. It will be the guardian history written by countless retrograde people, the responsibility history written by countless donated enterprises and caring people, the history of human destiny written by Japan and many countries, and the history of wars and epidemics written by every citizen, every resident and every villager. ...
This is an epic full of blood and tears, intertwined with separation and protection, full of fearlessness and courage, and there are too many names worthy of our lifetime.
For example, 80-year-old Academician Zhong, whether it is SARS or pneumonia in novel coronavirus, is still in the forefront and continues to fight; For example, Han Hong, a philanthropist and singer, and her team raised caring donations and effectively solved the material problems in the epidemic areas, and set off the backbone of public welfare by "single-handedly"; For example, Zhang Wenhong, head of the Shanghai medical expert group, explained what party member's hard nuclear responsibility is; Another example is Lin Shengbin, a citizen of Hangzhou, who lost his whole family earlier, but quickly raised 5,000 masks for donation. ...
There are too many names to remember. Maybe this Qian Qian "you" doesn't have many chances to appear in the newspaper, and even deliberately remain anonymous and give love in your way.
For example, a young man in Anhui "dropped" 500 masks and ran away at the police station. The police hurried after him, but they didn't catch up. They had to salute to show their gratitude. Everyone said you were handsome when you ran away. Yes, handsome enough to make people cry.
An old man from Chengdu went to the town government to donate 1007 1 yuan to support Wuhan, 7 1 means that he is party member, and 10000 means that he is United as one.
In this way, there are more and more examples of silent love, and the trickle merges into a warm river and sea. Although Wuhan and other places are isolated from the world, love is not isolated from the world, but has been flowing and surging.
In this special period, everyone should not stay out of it, and everyone should pay your responsibility and responsibility. It is the responsibility to rescue infected people, to return to work to produce masks, and to protect yourself at home.
With such a special start in 2020, it is easy to think of the once widely known "prediction": 20 19 may be the worst year in the past decade or the best year in the next decade.
The economic reality is already grim. Affected by the epidemic, the overall economy will definitely be affected in the short term. In the long run, China's economy will definitely improve after structural adjustment. It is normal for the economy to fluctuate periodically.
So what impact does the epidemic have on the economy? At present, no one may be able to predict accurately, and probably many people will use the data of 2003 as a reference.
Before the outbreak of SARS, the GDP growth rate of China in the first quarter of 2003 was 1 1. 1%. After the outbreak, the growth rate dropped to 9. 1%, and then rose to 10% in the next two quarters. It can be seen that the impact of SARS on the economy is about 2% quarterly, similar to 0.5% a year; After a quarter, it basically went up.
Xu Jin, editor-in-chief of FT Chinese Network Finance Edition, believes that if the situation is similar, the impact of the current epidemic on the economy is mainly in the first quarter, and the impact on the economy should be between 1% and 1.5%. You can refer to the estimate of the rating agency Standard & Poor's. If the consumption expenditure of major categories including transportation and entertainment decreases by 10%, the overall economic growth rate of the mainland will decrease by about 1.2 percentage points. At the time of SARS, a similar estimate was about 0.5% for the whole year.
But at the same time, she also pointed out that China's economy is not integrated with the world as it was then, and this impact will not only affect China, but also the world. China used to be the growth engine of the global economy, but now this engine has weakened, and the start of 2020 is not stable for the global economy.
How will it affect the geometry of the automobile industry?
Looking up the association's previous sales data, we can see that SARS in 2003 did not have a negative impact on China's automobile market. From 200 1 to 2005, the automobile market in China maintained a double-digit growth rate every year, especially in 2003, when the year-on-year sales growth rate reached 70%.
This should also pay attention to the "context" background. Around 2003, it was the golden age of automobile market increment. Even if SARS happened, and the scope of the epidemic was not as serious as this one, the automobile market in that year could still maintain rapid growth.
Of course, for SARS in 2003, we should try to avoid taking public transport to reduce the risk of infection, which in turn promoted consumers' intention to buy family cars. At that time, this will indeed become a short-term special factor to promote later sales.
After the epidemic situation improves, will there be an upward trend in short-term trading volume in that year? A high probability will happen, but the momentum will not be very strong, because after more than ten years of development, China's automobile penetration rate has been significantly improved.
In the long run, China's automobile industry is still promising.
According to the statistics of the Ministry of Public Security, by the end of 20 19, the number of minibuses in China had reached 220 million, an increase of 9.37% compared with the end of 20 19.26. Among them, the number of private cars (private minibuses) reached 207 million, surpassing 200 million for the first time.
The population of China is nearly 654.38+04 billion. Although the number of private cars in China has exceeded 200 million, the per capita ownership is still at a low level. In 20 19, the car ownership data of 20 major countries in the world released by the World Bank showed that China had 173 cars per 1000 people, ranking only 17. By contrast, the number of cars per 1,000 people in the United States ranked first reached 837, 4.8 times that of China.
China lags behind developed countries such as Europe and America, and also lags behind developing countries such as Brazil, Mexico and Iran. As the second largest economy in the world, China's economy has maintained a medium-high growth trend in recent years. In 20 19, the total GDP of China was close to1000 trillion yuan, and the per capita GDP exceeded100000 USD. With the improvement of income level, there will be more cars "just needed" in China market.
It's just that this "just need" has to go through countless competitions. The "just need" after the big waves washed the sand is no longer "there was too much pork in the past, and everyone had a share".
In the long run, China's economy is improving, and the automobile industry will not be too bad, but only if your enterprise can survive this cold winter and this epidemic period.
In front of the epidemic, no one can stay out of it. Since the outbreak of the epidemic, as an automobile worker, I have seen the growing and expanding list of caring donation enterprises, including Dongfeng, GAC and FAW, Jianghuai Automobile, which has not been operating well in the past two years, and new forces that are still building cars in difficult times. They left their difficulties to themselves and sent their true love to Wuhan and other places.
See great love and true love in the face of catastrophe.
Of course, this epidemic is a great test and an opportunity for people and enterprises to be tempered into steel, which is related to the growth of responsibility, courage and responsibility.
Those who have no responsibility and responsibility will be dismissed, and those who have the ability will be expelled.
Entrepreneurs who can go to the front line can arrange their work properly and give help. As children, they supervise their parents to wear masks, pay attention to hygiene, and don't make rumors or rumors. These are responsibilities and responsibilities.
Who are you? You are everything you've been through. It is the courage to face suffering, the responsibility to stand up, the fight and the fearless retrogression. All experiences will strongly support your future.
Suddenly there is a saying in Mo Wen West East. What this era lacks is not perfect people, but sincerity, justice, fearlessness and sympathy from the heart.
Yes, for an individual like me, there is really little I can do to make my family talk less and wear masks; Tell everyone in the studio to pay attention to their health, work in an orderly way at home and distribute food on time.
This is the daily life of an ordinary person.
For many voices of resentment, accusation and reflection, can you slow down? The first thing we should do is to overcome difficulties and tide over difficulties.
Yes, sometimes what we see and hear often makes us depressed. The secular world is so powerful that it is impossible for us to change it. However, no matter how ups and downs the outside world is, they are sincere to themselves and stick to their principles. Without distractions and doubts in your heart, you can go forward bravely.
Writing here, I found that a little bee had strayed into the room and was crawling on the glass window, humming and calling for help.
It may be because it is too weak or because the glass is too smooth. Every time he mustered all his strength, he climbed halfway and fell heavily, but he turned over and continued to work hard.
It must want to go out too much. In fact, it can climb sideways, so that it can easily reach the window and fly back to its world. However, it lost its way and had to live awkwardly.
I gently picked up a branch and carefully pushed it to the window. After a while, it flapped its wings and flew away.
Aren't those infected with pneumonia in novel coronavirus the same as this kind of bees? They are racing against death, and retrograde people are their direction in life. Maybe the "branch" that retrograde people pick up means the whole world to them.
We are what we guard.
We guard Wuhan, we are Wuhan; We protect the motherland, and we are the motherland; We protect the precious, we are precious; We guard love, and we are love.
Love what you love, do what you do, listen to your heart, and ask for nothing more.
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.