According to the recently released 100-city price index, the average residential price in 100 cities has been rising for eight consecutive months since the house price stopped falling and rebounded in May of 20 15. On a year-on-year basis, it has been on the rise for five consecutive months after falling for ten consecutive months.
Among them, Xiamen, Baoji, Shenzhen, Kunshan, Shanghai, Hefei, Suzhou, Dongguan, Shantou and Wuhan are the top ten cities in terms of chain growth. Year-on-year data shows that among the first-tier cities, Shenzhen's house prices rose by 38.65%, still ranking first; The increase in Shanghai is15.32%; Beijing rose by 9.17%; House prices in Guangzhou decreased by 2.35% year-on-year.
It can be said that the rise in house prices for eight consecutive months has made buyers feel a little scared. Should we start now? Will house prices rise sharply this year? Where is the most profitable house to buy?
Will house prices fall this year?
In recent years, the real estate industry in China is facing the situation of high housing prices in first-tier cities and serious inventory in second-and third-tier cities. Recently, the Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing, which pointed out that resolving real estate inventory is one of the five major tasks of economic and social development this year, and explicitly encouraged real estate development enterprises to adjust their marketing strategies and appropriately reduce the price of commercial housing. The People's Daily shouted to the major real estate developers: the pressure of real estate inventory is great, and it is the wisest choice for developers to reduce prices appropriately.
In which cities will house prices skyrocket this year?
Let's start with China's economic boom of 20 16. 20 16 the overall temperature of China's economy still belongs to the cold winter, and whether the real estate is stable will become the winner of China's economy. Based on this, the policy of real estate destocking will be beyond imagination. While helping migrant workers to buy houses, the policy "combination boxing" will also include the return of down payment to 20%, complete reduction and exemption of business tax, individual tax and deed tax, government repurchase, expansion of provident fund and greater financial subsidies. In other words, if you make up your mind, you must go to stock. In addition, there will be a rare combination of deposit reserve ratio, interest rate and exchange rate in 20 16, and the negative interest rate this year is a high probability.
Economist Ma Guangyuan said that the fundamentals of real estate are still high housing prices and high inventory. Inventory in some third-and fourth-tier cities is difficult to digest, and prices are unlikely to rise sharply. However, the result of "unified drug use" will stimulate the enthusiasm of first-and second-tier cities and some hot cities, and push up the housing prices in these cities, even soaring.
If you invest in buying a house, which cities earn the most?
According to media forecasts, Beijing and Shenzhen are only ranked in the second echelon among the cities where house prices have risen the most this year. ...
The first ascending echelon
Suzhou, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Xiamen, Sanya, Nanjing, Hefei, Haikou and Lanzhou. House prices in these cities have a high probability of rising.
The second ascending echelon
Beijing, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Fuzhou, Zhengzhou, Chengdu, Wenzhou and Tianjin.
The reason why Beijing can't skyrocket is because the population should be strictly controlled, the municipal government should move to Tongzhou, and the population within the Fourth Ring Road clearly requires a decline; Shenzhen 20 15 rose too crazy; Because of the formation of surrounding urban agglomerations, Guangzhou's overall supply is sufficient, and the conditions for skyrocketing are not available.
The third ascending echelon
Pay attention to the medium-sized cities with good economic conditions around the national urban circle and central cities.
A month's salary can buy one square meter to be livable.
According to relevant statistics, estimated by the ratio of house price to income, the livable standard of a city is that a couple must be able to afford a house of 70 square meters after working hard in this city for six years, or each person can afford a house of one square meter with a monthly salary.
(The above answers were published on 2016-01-14. Please refer to the actual situation for the current purchase policy. )
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