The good news of breaking through the 60 billion mark in one fell swoop has once again consolidated the position of the second largest film market in the world. The highly acclaimed "Bumblebee" opened a new chapter in the "Transformers Universe" after "Flying Alone".
Few people have noticed that the film market is heading for a cold winter. In the past two months of 20 18 and 12, 4.368 billion yuan was realized, which was14.2% lower than the previous year; From Christmas to New Year's Day, the film market went down all the way, and the weakness of the New Year's Eve file exceeded people's imagination; Up to the first week of 65438+ 10/3, 20 19 (1 .07-1.13), the monthly cumulative box office has even decreased by 50.72%.
Bumblebee, which has been released for nearly half a month, has set off the banner of the market. Looking around, the whole month of 65438+ 10, except for the bumblebee, is only "The Dead Waiter 2: I Love My Family" (from selling coquettish to playing cheap to spreading positive energy). Before the release of 13 movie on New Year's Day, the mainland film market had already ushered in a "dark moment".
For the first time in three years, the growth rate was lower than double digits, and the stumbling mainland film market finally passed the 60 billion mark. Since then, "falling endlessly" seems to have become the normal state of the film market-the excitement of 60.98 billion has just slowed down, and the New Year's Day file has given a blow; 13 years1in the first week of 20 19, the mainland film market totaled 70,000170,000, down 50.72% from the previous month, down 390 million compared with the same period of 20 18, and the monthly cumulative box office shrank by nearly18.
To some extent, the breakthrough of 60 billion covered up the downturn of the film market in 65438+February last year. Cat's eye box office shows that "Neptune Spider-Man: Parallel Universe" occupies the top two in the monthly list, accounting for more than 50.3%. The scene of imported films supporting the market for the Lunar New Year is the first time after the expansion of the mainland film market. In order to create a new high in the market, the New Year's Eve file, as the "private territory" of China films, has become the battlefield of imported films.
Since the beginning of 20 19, domestic films have also performed poorly. Bumblebee has always topped the box office in a single day. Although White Snake: The Origin, a masterpiece with the highest reputation in domestic animation, has sprung up suddenly and become the highest-rated movie in the cat's eye, the market response is not enthusiastic. The word-of-mouth and box office performance of "Big Man" are relatively average, but the Italian remake of "Perfect Stranger" on New Year's Eve won 600 million box office during the market vacuum period.
The total number of screens is the highest in the world, but it suffered a fiasco in the traditional film schedule. The performances of China's films in 65438+February, the first day of New Year's Day, and the first week of 20 19 once again showed such an iron law-after the market logic of returning to the content was straightened out, the so-called New Year's consumption habits were vulnerable. High quality is a prerequisite for explosive movies, which even greatly affected the box office market of that month. Previously, Aunt Richard failed to meet expectations, which led to the ebb tide of the National Day. The explosion of Ex 3: Goodbye EX led to the sudden emergence of 2065438+2008 and 65438+ 10.
For the first time, Chinese New Year films without famous directors and first-line actors were upstaged by imported films, which also proved that many small and medium-sized films in China are far from being able to support large films together. When the market is not hot, trying to be small and broad is tantamount to dreaming. It is imperative to re-evaluate the value of New Year's Eve files.
Super schedule, the Spring Festival schedule is ahead, and the Lunar New Year schedule has been evacuated. If 20 18 and 12 have movies such as Neptune and Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, they are quite attractive; Then 20 19 19 has almost no strong films except bumblebee and Dead Waiter 2: I love my family, and the market vacuum period may appear again.
The most anticipated movie in June 5438+10 is Bumblebee, which is regarded as the Transformers series. When the film was released in North America, it scored 93% of the freshness of rotten tomatoes, which was the highest score in the series, and even got the evaluation of "completing the revision of the whole series" and "returning to the original animation". The film tells a fairy tale about growth, which has aroused the pursuit of the mainland film market. By June 65438+1October 14, "bumblebee" has earned 758 million yuan and will become the first movie with a box office of 19.
In addition, small and medium-sized movies that can't squeeze into the Spring Festival file but want to stand out from the dark horse are all released in June 5438+ 10. For example, on June 5438+1October 18, there were 9 hand-to-hand combat movies on that day, which exceeded the number limit of multi-hall cinemas, and a large number of movies were "day trips".
It is really incredible that the supply of big screens is in short supply in the market structure of more but not stronger. After Bumblebee, cartoons, pet movies and film reviews became the mainstay of the film market. The only thing that can save the market is "Dead Waiter 2: I Love My Family" by Marvel Comics.
65438+1October 14 "Dead Waiter 2: I Love My Family" was released quickly on 25th, which was quite meaningful to save the market. In order to pass the trial, delete large-scale shots and reorganize the plot, this R-rated film has been dubbed "Green, Harmonious and Civilized Edition" by netizens, which may affect its market performance. However, considering that it has earned more than $700 million at the global box office, Marvel Comics' golden weapon should not be underestimated-quite interestingly, superhero movies have turned the tide for two consecutive months.
It is inevitable that a large number of films will be released together, and 65438+ 10 will become a veritable death schedule. More but not stronger, it will make the market vacuum appear again. Cat's eye data shows that if the off-schedule period (working day) is less than 50 million for four consecutive days, it is regarded as a box office vacuum period, so there will be two five-day vacuum periods in September and February of 20 17; There were two vacuum periods of 12 days in May/June of 20 18,11. 20 19 and 1 will have a vacuum period, which is much earlier. A notable sign is that "Bumblebee" has entered the "second half" and the market has dropped to 60-70 million.
February 5, the first day of the New Year, seems to be a well-defined curtain. As many as 13 films were released, which is the time when the film market completely emptied the old films.
It can attract a large number of groups outside the regular audience to enter the cinema, and the Spring Festival is the most special schedule of the year. There is a rigid demand for watching movies, which makes this schedule ignore the film quality to some extent. As long as you can get a large share, it seems that you can win. During the Spring Festival of 20 18, although Operation Red Sea had a high reputation, the quality of "Catch the Demon 2" was not satisfactory, and it ranked among the top 10 of the year with 2.237 billion yuan.
As the ultimate battlefield of China movies, the Spring Festival has long been pending from the opening of Xiaogang Feng comedy, and has even become the top stage in a year. After the success of other slots, sequels of China IP movies often choose to "practice their hands" in the Spring Festival file to grab a higher box office.
For example, "Catch the Demon 2" released in the 20 18 Spring Festival file, the previous work came from the summer file explosion; The predecessor of Chinatown Detective 2 is the leader of the Lunar New Year file. This time, Lover 2, which will be released on February 5, is confident of winning the battle on New Year's Day. Ning Hao, a multi-functional director, directed the film "Flowers" in the National Day file, while the producer "Survival Desire" dominated the summer file. The new film "Crazy Alien" is regarded as the "top card" of the Spring Festival file.
The Spring Festival file has its own "highlights", which reached its peak on 20 19, and finally made the New Year file completely "empty", and the new film released on the first day of the New Year became "the best in history". The lack of other movies, the heavy gathering of Spring Festival files and the uneven distribution of the contents of the head have finally gone to the other extreme.
From 7 all-age films+1 cartoons in the Spring Festival of 20 18 to 1 1 all-age films +2 cartoons in the Spring Festival of 20 19, the number of films released in this period has increased by over 50%. However, the market growth space is limited. The data shows that the attendance rate has reached 70% on New Year's Day on 20 18. Even if it is full, it will only increase by about 50%, which is less than the number of films. Such a cluster will only lead to the dilution of the income of a single film.