(Institute of Natural Science History, Chinese Academy of Sciences)

On May 12, 2008, Wenchuan County, Sichuan Province suffered a major earthquake that shocked China and foreign countries. In this earthquake, more than 87,000 people died and disappeared, and more than 370,000 people were injured, resulting in economic losses of more than 860 billion yuan. Wenchuan earthquake made people realize the importance of earthquake prediction again.

The cause of earthquake prediction in New China has not only experienced the glory of successful prediction, but also suffered the criticism of earthquake omission. For more than 40 years, China scholars have done a lot of work in studying earthquake mechanism and exploring the possibility of earthquake prediction. By combing the development of earthquake prediction in New China, this paper preliminarily discusses the reasons for the rise of earthquake prediction in New China, hoping that this work can contribute to earthquake prediction in China.

First, the initial cause of earthquake prediction was driven by the long-term planning of 12 years.

Seismic activity has a certain periodicity. In the early days of the founding of New China, the earthquake was relatively calm. China earthquake research focuses on engineering construction services, focusing on the division of earthquake intensity, and has not paid attention to earthquake prediction research. Another reason is that earthquake prediction is an internationally recognized problem, and developed countries have not achieved remarkable results.

1954, the Soviet Union published the album Earthquake Prediction, and China scholars immediately studied and digested it [1]. In the following two years, the study of short-term and imminent prediction was initially carried out. These studies laid the foundation for the future work and collected data.

As a scientific research undertaking in China, earthquake prediction began in 1956. In March of that year, the state began to formulate the Outline of Long-term Planning for Science and Technology Development (Draft) (referred to as the Twelve-year Long-term Planning) of 1956 ~ 1967. In the process of discussing the planning, scholars have a heated discussion on whether earthquakes can be predicted and whether they should be predicted. Finally, in the 33rd task of the long-term plan of 12, namely, "research on earthquake activity and disaster prevention in China" [1], it is clearly put forward for the first time to carry out "research on earthquake prediction methods".

1. Establish a modern earthquake observation network.

The perfection of seismic observation network is the basis of earthquake prediction. Therefore, the geographical distribution of stations and the accuracy of seismographs are directly related to the progress of earthquake prediction.

1954, for the purpose of engineering construction planning, China established the first batch of seismic stations in the Yellow River basin, reservoir areas and northeastern cities, with a total of more than 20 stations. These seismic stations are self-developed seismometers in China, with low sensitivity, only equipped with horizontal mechanical records, and unable to record vertical ground movements, which is far from the world advanced level at that time [2].

Starting from 1955, with the help of Soviet seismologists, China Academy of Sciences introduced some advanced instruments and drawings. This has significantly improved the monitoring ability of seismic stations in China in a short time, and the layout of the network has also been re-planned. By 1958, China had established 12 seismic stations (or observation stations) in Beijing, Kunming, Nanjing, Shanghai (Sheshan), Lhasa, Guangzhou, Changchun, Baotou, Xi, Chengdu, Wuhan and Lanzhou. 1960 Eight new seismic stations were added in Urumqi, Tai 'an, Kashgar, Gao Tai, Guiyang, Dalian, Taiyuan and Shenyang [3]. The completion of the basic seismic stations in the above 20 countries has greatly improved China's earthquake monitoring ability and the determination accuracy of basic earthquake parameters, and also realized the real network distribution. So far, the seismic network in China has been able to monitor earthquakes with magnitude above 4 in most parts of the country. This also collected a lot of valuable data for later earthquake prediction research.

In addition, since the end of 1950s, China has set up small regional networks in key national construction areas with active earthquakes in northwest, southwest and central south, the Three Gorges area of the Yangtze River and Xinfengjiang Reservoir, so as to study the seismic activities in the monitored areas in detail and realize the rapid determination of the relevant parameters of earthquakes with magnitude greater than 2 in most areas.

2. Send an earthquake investigation team to collect earthquake precursors

During the period of 1958, influenced by the ideas of "Great Leap Forward" and "Left", some young students and seismologists were enthusiastic about breaking through the topic of earthquake prediction. Earthquake prediction was once put on the work agenda. Subsequently, the Institute of Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences set up an earthquake prediction investigation team to collect necessary precursor phenomena in northwest China. The team members collected many abnormal phenomena before the earthquake through field investigation, consulting local residents and consulting county records. But it is difficult to determine that these phenomena are precursors of earthquakes. Even if it is a precursor, how to observe it before the earthquake has many difficulties [4]. At the same time, some countries with more developed earthquake research in the world think that it was too early to put forward earthquake prediction at that time, and the research cost of earthquake prediction was very high, which was unbearable for China in difficult times. So this topic soon became a long-term exploration project. But this survey is the first time to explore the important scientific practice of short-term prediction. The precursory phenomena summarized by the expedition team are not only at that time, but also of great scientific value to the later earthquake prediction work.

3. Study on Reservoir-induced Earthquake

During this period, the research work of reservoir-induced earthquake prediction is the focus. After the founding of New China, a number of reservoirs were built in China. After the reservoir was filled, earthquakes occurred in some reservoir areas. In this case, seismologists have carried out observation and research on reservoir-induced earthquakes for the purpose of serving national construction.

Xinfengjiang Reservoir was impounded in June, and 1959, M 4 earthquake occurred. It happened three times in the dam area the following year. Subsequently, according to the instructions of Premier Zhou Enlai, China Academy of Sciences organized experts and scholars to investigate and study the reservoir area. Through the cooperation of many departments, an earthquake observation station was quickly established in the reservoir area. After comprehensive analysis by experts, it is suggested that the dam be reinforced with a fortification of 8 degrees (the original 6 degrees). This proposal was adopted in 1960 and 10, and adopted by the hydropower department. 1March, 962, an earthquake of magnitude 6. 1 occurred in the dam area with an epicenter intensity of 8 degrees. The reinforced dam has stood the test. Although this success was achieved under certain conditions, it made the government and ordinary people enhance their awareness of earthquake prediction and saw the dawn of earthquake prediction [5].

Second, establish a forecasting system of "combination of experts and groups"

In 1960s, Chinese mainland earthquake gradually entered an active period. An earthquake of magnitude 6. 6 occurred near Urumqi 1965, followed by major earthquakes near some big cities, which caused different degrees of damage and attracted the attention of the central government and scientists. In the same year, the activities of the Dai Song earthquake swarm in Japan, the first five-year plan for earthquake prediction in Japan (1965 ~ 1969) and the "ten-year plan for earthquake prediction and earthquake engineering" proposed after the Alaska earthquake in the United States also attracted extensive attention from seismologists in China. So at the beginning of 1966, the Institute of Geophysics held a discussion and planning meeting on earthquake prediction, demonstrated the necessity and reality of carrying out earthquake prediction, and formed a planning group to study and draft the earthquake prediction plan [2].

Just as seismologists in China were preparing to carry out earthquake prediction research in a planned way, the Xingtai earthquake occurred on March 8, 1966. The earthquake * * * caused more than 8,000 deaths and 38,000 injuries, resulting in huge economic losses. More importantly, this earthquake has changed the traditional view that earthquakes mostly occur in southwest and northwest regions, while North China is relatively calm. North China, especially Beijing and Tianjin, is the political and economic center of China, and the earthquake disaster in this area directly endangers the political and economic lifeline of the country. Therefore, the Xingtai earthquake has attracted great attention from the government of China.

It can be said that 1966 is a node in the development of earthquake prediction. Since this year, Chinese mainland has entered an earthquake-active year of 10, and it is also from this year that China society has entered a turbulent "cultural revolution". Under the dual influence of natural disasters and special social environment, a new earthquake prediction system has gradually formed.

1. The combination of special groups and foreign countries.

On the afternoon of Xingtai earthquake, Premier Zhou Enlai met with earthquake workers in the State Council and put forward "earthquake prediction". On March 22nd, Premier Zhou Enlai told the students majoring in earthquake at the earthquake site, "I hope to solve the problem of earthquake prediction in your generation." "Carry forward the original spirit, strive to break through scientific problems and fight against the earth." Premier Zhou's speech gave great encouragement to seismologists and pointed out the direction for scientists [2].

After the Xingtai earthquake, the State Science and Technology Commission quickly organized more than 30 scientific and technical personnel from the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the Ministry of Geology and the Ministry of Petroleum Industry to investigate and study the Xingtai earthquake site. This also includes the staff of Beijing Livestock Farm, who conduct earthquake prediction research by observing the abnormal reactions of animals. At the same time, the people in the earthquake area spontaneously organized themselves to form an observation group to monitor all kinds of abnormal phenomena day and night like standing guard. Some farmers measure the rise and fall of well water level three times a day, record the changes of water quality in detail, observe the corresponding relationship between these changes and earthquakes, and report the situation to earthquake-related departments in time. The masses also widely observed the abnormal changes of livestock and animals, and some people specially raised animals such as fish and snakes for this purpose. Premier Zhou strongly supported the people in the disaster area in this pioneering work. The government issued the instruction of "combining experts with groups, group monitoring and group prevention", and the corresponding work was carried out all over the country.

In May of the same year, when Premier Zhou Enlai met with Xingtai earthquake experts, he pointed out that nothing can be monopolized by one person, and neither scholars nor experts can monopolize it. We should combine with the masses and absorb their experience and wisdom. Knowledge comes from the masses, but their analytical methods are not complete. The role of experts is to gather the wisdom of the masses, process and improve it into a science, and then go to the masses to verify what is right and correct what is wrong [6]. In addition, it also puts forward the "two-three combination", that is, the combination of leaders, experts and the masses, and the combination of scientific research, teaching and production. This report fully emphasizes the role of the masses.

1966 The "Cultural Revolution" caused great damage to China's scientific research. Although many scholars are unable to engage in scientific research, the research on earthquake prediction is quite "remarkable". Including geologist Li Siguang and meteorologist Zhu Kezhen, were transferred to study earthquake prediction. Historians also take an active part in it, researching by looking for historical earthquakes. On the mass side, people from all walks of life, from factories to schools to rural areas, are enthusiastically involved in the cause of earthquake prediction. In factories, schools, institutions and military units and other places where conditions permit, a number of group investigation outlets have been established. This team cooperated closely with the professional team and played an important role in the prediction of 1975 Haicheng earthquake.

By the end of 1976 and 65438+ 10, there were more than 50,000 mass prediction points (stations) and18,000 mass prediction teams in China, which participated in the earthquake prediction work together with professional teams [7].

2. Establishment of Seismological Bureau

July 1969, 18, M = 7 earthquake. The Central Earthquake Working Group was born in Bohai Sea. 1970 65438+ 10 17. From February 9, the first national earthquake work conference was held in Beijing. At the meeting, it was suggested that the State Seismological Bureau should be established, with four brigades, namely North China, Northwest China, Southwest China and Central South China, to undertake earthquake prediction and research in relevant areas respectively.

After this meeting, the Central Earthquake Working Group immediately set out to form a unified national earthquake team. More than 10 earthquake teams belonging to China Academy of Sciences, Ministry of Geology, State Bureau of Surveying and Mapping and Ministry of Petroleum Industry were organized into earthquake systems [2].

197 1 On August 2nd, the State Council officially issued the Notice of the State Council on Strengthening the Central Seismological Working Group to Establish the State Seismological Bureau. The notice said that in order to further strengthen the leadership of earthquake work and implement the policy of "prevention first", it is necessary to combine professional teams with mass amateur teams [4]. The office of the Central Earthquake Working Group was abolished, and the State Seismological Bureau was established to take charge of the national earthquake work, which was managed by China Academy of Sciences.

The establishment of the State Seismological Bureau indicates that the earthquake work in China has entered a new stage. After 1974, earthquake work organizations at the prefecture, city and county levels were generally established in all provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities in North China and Northeast China to manage local earthquake work in a unified way. The establishment of Seismological Bureau also marks the beginning of earthquake prediction with China characteristics. Because in other countries, there is no corresponding government agency with similar functions. For example, in Japan, it is the university research institute that studies earthquake prediction. They also make predictions, but it is not their duty to make predictions. The same is true in the United States and some European countries. However, in China, the level of earthquake prediction is still very backward, but the government has undertaken this almost helpless task.

3. Earthquake consultation system

1972+0 1 At the symposium on earthquake science held in Linfen, Shanxi Province in June, it was decided to establish an annual national earthquake consultation system to estimate the earthquake situation in recent 1 2 years and guide and coordinate the recent monitoring and prediction work [7].

The earthquake situation consultation system was produced to adapt to the actual situation of earthquake prediction at that time. Organize national monitoring, scientific research and mass prevention forces in the form of consultation to realize more reliable earthquake prediction opinions. The combination of earthquake consultation and expert decision-making is the basic form of determining earthquake prediction opinions [8].

Since the establishment of the State Seismological Bureau, it has been clearly stipulated in the earthquake prediction regulations that the earthquake detection department generally meets once a week, and an emergency meeting is needed in special circumstances. The consultation should reflect the principle of letting a hundred schools of thought contend. The consultation results should be reported to the relevant superior departments in a timely and comprehensive manner. This consultation system has been continuously improved. In addition, the earthquake-free prediction opinions put forward by the earthquake situation consultation also have great benefits. That is to eliminate earthquake rumors, so as to reduce and avoid social disasters caused by rumors.

By 1986, the Regulations on Earthquake Situation Analysis and Prediction was implemented, and the consultation system defined the specific time, content, report form and specific requirements of the Chamber of Commerce of the impending earthquake, which was fixed as the earthquake prediction method and has continued to this day. For a period of time after the Wenchuan earthquake, every day was consultation.

Third, after the reform and opening up, the earthquake prediction was systematically summarized and cleaned up.

After 1976, Chinese mainland entered a relatively calm earthquake period. Therefore, the earthquake work at this stage has been transferred to the stage of summing up experience, serious reflection and in-depth research. Looking back on the cause of earthquake prediction, although some achievements have been made in the exploration, seismologists are also soberly aware that the final solution to the scientific problems of earthquake prediction needs long-term exploration.

After the Cultural Revolution, seismologists can gradually concentrate on scientific research. The new policy of reform and opening up has also prompted the Seismological Bureau to carry out corresponding institutional reforms. Clarify the division of labor between the party and the government, implement the tenure system of administrative leaders, and implement the contract system of station management. These works provide a favorable environment for the development of earthquake prediction.

1. Summary and reflection

1966 ~ 1976 This year 10 is a period of unprecedented development of earthquake prediction in China. However, while a lot of research results have been achieved, there are also many problems.

For a long time, seismologists in China mainly rely on earthquake precursors for prediction. Fu Chengyi, a seismologist, clearly pointed out in Several Issues on Earthquake Prediction published in 1966 that "the most direct sign of earthquake prediction is precursors". This idea has also been widely recognized and developed by seismologists in China. However, this method relies more on experience than theory. This is a bit like Chinese medicine, in an awkward position. It can be said that the success of Haicheng earthquake prediction and the failure of Tangshan earthquake prediction are two manifestations of the same level of earthquake prediction.

The "Cultural Revolution" in 10 also had a certain impact on the cause of earthquake prediction. Too much emphasis on the strength of the masses, one-sided understanding of the policy of "combining soil with foreign countries" and unrealistic exaggeration of the role of soil instruments and soil means have caused ideological confusion of the earthquake team, which can neither improve the scientific nature of the mass team through practice, but also affect the role of the professional team.

2. Reform of earthquake prediction system and adjustment of guidelines.

During the "Cultural Revolution" period, the establishment of local earthquake institutions and group observation points lacked unified planning and rational layout, and some local institutions overlapped, resulting in overstaffed people and low management level and work efficiency. After the reform and opening up, a series of reform measures were implemented. By the end of 1984, the reform of the organizational management system of the earthquake system was basically completed. This adjustment cancelled the seismological bureaus in some areas, implemented a management system based on the vertical leadership of the State Seismological Bureau, and clarified the main responsibilities of the Seismological Bureau.

1982, at the National Science and Technology Awards Conference, the Central Committee and the State Council put forward the scientific and technological strategic policy that "economic construction must rely on science and technology, and science and technology must face economic construction", which provided a basis for the earthquake department to determine the task of earthquake prediction in the new period. Subsequently, under the auspices of An Qiyuan, then the earthquake director, the direction and tasks of earthquake prediction work were also adjusted. The adjusted policy is to "give priority to prevention, combine special groups and explore through multiple channels, strengthen the research on earthquake prediction and engineering earthquakes, promote the modernization of earthquake science and technology, continuously improve the level of monitoring and prediction, reduce earthquake disasters, and give play to the role of earthquake science in national economic construction and social progress [2]".

3. Cleaning and tackling key problems of earthquake system.

During the Cultural Revolution, some observation methods and instruments that had not been scientifically tested and demonstrated were used, which reduced the scientificity and usability of the observation results. According to statistics, at one time, one third of the observation data of national seismic stations could not be used. In order to improve this situation, seismologists have cleared up a series of problems left over from history.

By the end of 1985, after nearly three years' efforts, China's "three soils" (geoelectric, geostress and geomagnetic observation methods) were basically cleaned up. This not only scientifically clarified some basic problems of the "three soils" law for a long time, but also advocated a scientific spirit in the group prevention and treatment team. In addition, new observation methods such as radon in water and abnormal animal habits have been added, and good results have been achieved in the observation, experiment and theoretical analysis of earthquake prediction in China.

1983 ~ 1986 earthquake system has cleaned up and tackled the earthquake precursors and prediction methods. From 1987 to 1989, the practical study of earthquake prediction was carried out. These two key problems have laid a solid foundation for comprehensive earthquake prediction and formed a clear research object, content and method. Through the comprehensive analysis and study of various precursor phenomena in the process of earthquake preparation and occurrence, their correlation and combination, and their internal relations with the earthquake process, we can judge the earthquake situation [7].

Surplus theory

Earthquake prediction is an extremely complicated science. Under the dual effects of scientific research and practical needs, China began a hard exploration. From 1956 to the end of 1980s, although some achievements have been made in earthquake prediction, the overall research level is still relatively low, mostly staying in the summary of experience and rarely rising to the theoretical level. For example, the data observed before the Wenchuan earthquake did not appear abnormal. However, after the earthquake, it looks like an anomaly, indicating that the correlation between the so-called pre-earthquake anomaly and the occurrence of the earthquake is still lacking in rigorous scientific theoretical argumentation.

In addition, earthquake prediction in China mainly focuses on making predictions through precursors. However, seismologists have realized through summary, reflection and in-depth study that the precursor complexity of earthquake preparation lies not only in the diversity of abnormal changes in observation data, but also in the differences of different regions and types of earthquakes, and this complexity is also manifested in the temporal and spatial evolution of earthquake precursors. In the past, the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of earthquake precursors were described by the concentration of anomalies in spatial distribution and the synchronization in actual process, so as to make comprehensive prediction. However, such a research method is difficult to describe the process of earthquake preparation scientifically. Therefore, in order to overcome the difficult problem of earthquake prediction, it is necessary to start with the study of the mechanism of earthquake preparation.

At the same time, due to the different policies implemented by the state in different periods, it has also had a considerable impact on the working methods and methods of earthquake prediction. In Japan, the United States and other countries, earthquake prediction is only a scientific research topic. However, in China, earthquake prediction is a government action. This also promoted the establishment of China's characteristic earthquake consultation system and the government agency State Seismological Bureau.

After the Wenchuan earthquake in 2008, Premier Wen Jiabao said at a meeting of the State Seismological Bureau that we should deepen our understanding of the law of earthquake occurrence, draw profound lessons, improve the level of earthquake prediction and defense, and provide a valuable scientific model for doing a good job in earthquake scientific prediction in the future. I believe this instruction will further promote the development of earthquake prediction. We expect the earthquake prediction in China to enter a brand-new period under the new scientific research and social environment.

Acknowledgement: I sincerely thank researcher Zhang from the Institute of Natural Science History of Chinese Academy of Sciences for his guidance and researcher Jiang Zaisen from the Seismological Bureau of China for his help.

Take the exam and contribute.

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