A Russian air force Su -24 fighter 10 was shot down by a Turkish air force F- 16 fighter while flying on the Turkish-Syrian border on 24 October, and crashed on the Syrian side on the grounds of "violating airspace and repeatedly warning was invalid". Afterwards, the two sides held their own words. The Turkish side determined that Russian warplanes violated Turkish airspace many times in a short time, and the Turkish side warned 10 times within 5 minutes before firing. The Russian side insisted that the fighter plane did not violate the territorial airspace and did not receive a warning, demanding that the Turkish side formally apologize.
According to public opinion, this incident is also of considerable warning significance to China. Based on this, the International Herald Tribune interviewed well-known domestic military experts and analyzed how to prevent and deal with possible "accidents" in China.
Qiao Liang (Professor of National Defense University, Major General of Air Force): It is not excluded that firing is an option, and of course it is also the last option.
In the territorial dispute between the East China Sea and the South China Sea, China also faces the threat that its fighter planes or ships will be shot down or injured by potential rivals. Although judging from the current situation, this possibility is not too great, there is a precedent for Turkey to shoot down Russian fighters, and we cannot completely take it lightly. Because this incident obviously means "the mouse plays with the cat", it is reasonable to say that the mouse has no courage to challenge the cat, but why does it dare to play like this? It only shows that behind it, there is a force supporting it to play like this. There is a similar situation around China. Some countries may take the risk of playing the game of "mice playing with cats", because it is definitely not a mouse standing behind them.
In the struggle for territorial rights protection, we have always adhered to the principle and attitude of "people don't attack me, I don't attack"; When people commit crimes against me, I commit crimes. "You don't offend me, I won't take the initiative to pick things up; But when you attack me, I will never show weakness, never shrink back, and never suffer from yabakui. We will first establish an effective communication mechanism with relevant countries. The premise of this communication mechanism is to act in accordance with the relevant norms of international law. On the basis of effective communication mechanism, gradually establish a mutual trust mechanism. If the other party deliberately provokes trouble, then there is no mutual trust. In the absence of mutual trust and ineffective communication, if you encounter intentional provocation, shooting is not excluded as an option. Of course, this is also the last option.
Turkey's move completely surprised Russia and the international community. At that time, although Russia suffered losses, its revenge was quite severe. Through Russia's measures against Turkey, we can see that all available means have been used, including non-war military operations, except not directly fighting Turkey. We must now understand that non-war military actions are not only peacekeeping, evacuation of overseas Chinese, and fighting against pirates, but also fire and even bloodshed, but they are different from wars, but a state of sub-war.
There is no doubt that this is a warning to China. Our frontline commanders and pilots will definitely strengthen their awareness of prevention and cannot be caught off guard by some countries with ulterior motives. In the case of not losing money, we must try our best not to give the other party a chance to provoke.
If we encounter the provocation of the other side, we must be prepared to fight back on the spot in advance, but we need to judge whether the provocation of the other side is a trap. If the other party's provocation is to worsen the investment environment around China and intentionally force you to do it, then once it is established, it will help the other party worsen our surrounding environment and help the other party plan to evacuate global capital from China. Turkey's shooting down of Russian warplanes led to a sharp drop in European stock markets, as well as the depreciation of the Turkish lira and the decline of the Russian stock market, which meant that a large amount of funds were withdrawn from the local capital market. This result is most beneficial to the United States, because at the same time, the Fed's expectation of raising interest rates is attracting international capital to the United States. If the other side's provocation has such an intention, we can't be fooled easily. Instead, we should consider dealing with it with courage, resourcefulness and wisdom, without being fooled, showing weakness or suffering.
Teng Jianqun (Director, Arms Control Research Center, China Institute of International Studies): No link in security work can be ignored.
Today's air combat is not a single battle between attack aircraft or fighters. Russia is completely sure of its air superiority, so it thinks that the attack plane can act alone, without sending fighter planes with it or setting up an anti-missile system. This incident is a painful lesson for Russia. Terrorists can't help it in the air, but the threats from other countries are ignored. This also gives us a warning that we can't ignore the safety work of any link.
In 200 1 year, China and the United States collided in the South China Sea. Under the current situation, this danger still exists. In case of an incident similar to the shooting down of a Russian fighter plane, we must first judge each other's intentions. If it is intentional, it will be a very serious military provocation; If it is really an accident, it can be solved through diplomatic channels.
Due to the fast speed of the plane, some accidents may happen in a short time. For this reason, relevant countries have been discussing the establishment of early warning and avoidance measures for emergencies such as sea or air encounters, but even with these measures, it is difficult to ensure that accidents do not occur. When we are defending rights or practicing, we do not rule out the possibility of premeditated attacks. Therefore, we need to establish a comprehensive security system, not only to nip in the bud, but also to have a perfect post-processing mechanism.
Recently, several different types of aircraft of China Air Force flew out of the first island chain for drills, with land-based, sea-based and air support. These can not only ensure their own security, but also deal with the provocations of relevant countries, such as tracking and monitoring. Our army itself has a complete plan to deal with possible accidents; After the Russian warplane incident, we will further strengthen our awareness of prevention.
Luo Yuan (Executive Vice President, Secretary-General and Major General of China Association for the Promotion of Strategic Culture): Defining the responsibility of self-defense through legal authorization.
There is still a lot of room for clarification and confirmation about Turkey's shooting down of Russian warplanes, but as far as the current situation is concerned, from a purely military point of view, I think there are at least five inspirations for us:
First, designate air defense identification zones in necessary areas and draw our safety bottom line. The air defense identification zone shall include early warning zone, warning zone and self-defense zone. At present, the overall situation of the struggle for rights protection in the East China Sea and the South China Sea is controllable, but there are also many uncertain factors. In particular, individual countries constantly provoke China's territorial sovereignty, posing a security threat to people and facilities stationed on some islands and reefs. We should be highly vigilant about this.
Second, establish air and sea avoidance rules with relevant countries. At present, we are negotiating with relevant countries in the East China Sea and the South China Sea on the avoidance mechanism of accidental encounters at sea and in the air to ensure maritime and air safety and avoid accidents. In fact, we have initiated the relevant consultation mechanism with Japan, but it has not been finalized due to Japanese reasons. Turkey's shooting down of a Russian fighter plane tells us that it is necessary to establish relevant rules in order to avoid accidental shooting.
Third, monitor the playback mechanism. Unexpected encounters in the air or at sea are instantaneous, so it is necessary to track and monitor them in relevant areas including the East China Sea and the South China Sea, and play them back at an appropriate time. If there is a monitoring video playback mechanism, then at least one legal or moral commanding height can be occupied, otherwise there is no evidence.
Fourth, strengthen air defense measures against aircraft and combat aircraft in disputed and sensitive areas. The shooting down of Russian warplanes is a lesson. Russia has now deployed an anti-missile system in Syria and will take measures to accompany the fighters. This also tells us that when performing tasks in disputed areas or sensitive areas, we should be escorted by anti-aircraft missiles and fighter planes. It doesn't mean to do this every time, but to prepare for the worst in case of unexpected situations.
Fifth, establish relevant laws to clarify under what circumstances the invading aircraft can be authorized to shoot down. Everything is established in advance, and it is abolished if it is not foreseen. If you don't make adequate preparations in advance, you may be in a passive situation in the event of an emergency. The shooting down of Russian fighter plane gave us a warning that we should have a perfect plan for possible accidents in the air and have legal authorization to stipulate when we can exercise our self-defense duties. This is also a warning to the provocateur.
As a spokesman for the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs said, many specific details are not clear now, and China will certainly make further investigations and make further responses. Some people suggest that we should fight back on the spot. I think this statement is not professional enough in the military. After all, military action is very sensitive and should be handled properly. Military struggle should be rational, beneficial and restrained. We need to go through strict investigation and analysis before we can draw a conclusion and take corresponding actions.