Internet entrepreneurship has always been a very interesting phenomenon. The hotter an industry is, the faster it cools down. Therefore, when an industry becomes an internet outlet, although many entrepreneurs are gearing up and capital is ready to move, under the seemingly fiery appearance, it often means that the whole industry will usher in the most tragic killing.
After the killing, survivors often shout out the slogan of "survival of the fittest, and the rest is king", and declare their victory with Darwin's theory of evolution, oblivious to the pain all over. For every industry that has been or is in the forefront of the Internet, it is nothing more than this. From a more macro point of view, many fallen entrepreneurs use failure to declare that the industry has turned from hot to cold.
It is always a sad situation that the hero is dying and the beauty is dying. The protagonist of this time is the once popular live broadcast, and the beauty is the network celebrity economy that is in full swing because of the rise of live broadcast. It seems that they can't escape the curse of the rapid wind stop after the Internet outlet.
Recently, the State Administration of Press, Publication, Radio, Film and Television issued the Notice on Strengthening the Management of Live Broadcasting Services of Online Audiovisual Programs, reiterating relevant regulations and requiring live broadcasting organizations of online audiovisual programs to carry out live broadcasting services according to law. This notice didn't get unanimous support as before, but it caused the whole industry to fall into a strange period of silence. After that, Beijing Netcom Office ordered Yingke, Jiao Zan, Yibiao, Xiaomi, Liujiafang, A auto, Zaidi and other live broadcast websites to carry out comprehensive rectification.
There are indications that the webcast platform that has passed the barbaric growth period will usher in the first cold winter. So, is it an erotic bubble economy that has been hit by several consecutive heavy punches, or is it the pillar of the growing Internet economy in the future? Where will the webcast go?
The pain of operating costs and business models
In 20 16, we entered the era of "national live broadcast" in the cold winter of capital.
According to CNNIC's 38th Statistical Report on the Development of Internet in China, as of June this year, the number of netizens in China reached 7 10 billion, of which 325 million were webcast users, accounting for 45.8% of the total number of netizens. It is conservatively estimated that there are more than 500 live broadcast platforms with the advantages of immediacy, vividness and closeness.
It can be said that webcasting has swept the whole Internet industry with an overwhelming trend and become one of the hottest hot spots. However, with the birth of a large number of platforms in the industry and the influx of capital giants, problems have gradually emerged: the operating costs of live broadcast services have increased rapidly, and the homogenization of business models has become increasingly serious. These two problems have caused many live broadcast platforms to be almost unprofitable and can only be killed in the stage of burning money.
From the perspective of operating costs, the live broadcast platform mainly needs to invest a lot of money in two directions.
One is the high bandwidth cost. The broadband fee of China operator 1T is about 20 million yuan per month, and it takes about 1.5T for every million people to watch the live broadcast with 720P definition. As far as the industry average is concerned, the bandwidth fee of the live broadcast platform costs at least 30 million yuan per million online users. The smoothness and clarity of the network is the life door of live broadcast, and there is no compromise. With the increasing number of live broadcast users, the operating cost of broadband will continue to increase, resulting in a tight capital chain for more and more platforms.
The second is the investment of network celebrities and star anchor resources. In 20 15, a "Top Anchor Ranking of Game Live Broadcasting Industry" was circulated on the Internet. Among them, 10 was worth more than 10 million, and Ruofeng ranked first, with an annual income of 20 million, exceeding the level of many first-line stars. Well-known anchors have huge traffic and are the objects of competition among major platforms. As a result, the value of the anchor has risen, and at the same time, major live broadcast platforms have begun to fall into the "war of digging the wall." This makes the online celebrities abandon their loyalty more invisibly, so the online celebrities trained by the live broadcast platform at great cost are often poached by opponents, resulting in both human and financial resources, which invisibly puts the whole live broadcast industry into a vicious circle.
From the perspective of profit model, the commercialization routines of anchors on many platforms are similar.
The first category is the live broadcast of the backward payment mode, which is implanted and displayed in the form of live broadcast for third parties who want to promote their products, such as e-commerce live broadcast. The second is the pan-entertainment live broadcast of the forward payment mode, which is aimed at the user's payment. Users "reward" gifts while watching the live broadcast, and then expand the function of paying for other products. The third category is to combine anchors with the potential of network celebrities to produce high-quality PGC or PUGC columns, so as to maximize the personal IP value of excellent anchors and further derive more forms of charging for movies and entertainment.
At present, most live broadcast platforms belong to the first two. Whether it is advertising or rewarding benefits, the platform needs to be included in the anchor's pocket according to a certain proportion. Such income is difficult to maintain its own operating costs. The third model, which has high hopes, also faces multiple pressures of high threshold production cost and key supervision, and few people can succeed.
In short, the current live broadcast business model has caused many platforms to fall into a profit dilemma, resulting in the situation that the anchor eats meat and the platform drinks soup. Nowadays, the hard rules such as "holding a certificate to work" and restricting live broadcast content are undoubtedly worse for the platform. It is no exaggeration to say that many small live broadcast platforms will become cannon fodder under such supervision, and mainstream live broadcast platforms will be more bound in the exploration of business models.
Content is king, but it is difficult to offset policy risks.
In addition to operating costs and commercialization issues, the webcast platform also faces serious content risks. At present, in order to attract fans, some so-called network celebrities and beauty anchors play marginal roles with vulgar and pornographic content, and grandstanding with pornographic, violent and even drug-related content to satisfy users' curiosity. Although it quickly attracted the audience in a short time, it invisibly increased the policy risk.
The reason why this kind of problem will appear. It is because the operating cost of the platform is too high that it is difficult to have the funds and energy to innovate live content and develop new business models. Therefore, choosing vulgar and pornographic content to attract users quickly leads to an increase in regulatory risks. This has become an inevitable problem in the development stage of webcast platform. After all, without strict supervision, most people and platforms will choose shortcuts to accumulate popularity, which is itself caused by the blindness and spontaneity of the market.
Now the State Administration of Radio, Film and Television has issued regulations, and even the Beijing Netcom Office has ordered the live broadcast websites such as Yingke, Jiao Zan, Guan Yi, Xiaomi, Liujiafang, A Aauto Quicker and Zaijun to carry out comprehensive rectification, which shows that such live broadcast content will become increasingly difficult to survive. Affected by this, not only the anchor, but also the live broadcast platform will inevitably lose a lot of popularity.
In particular, what makes the live broadcast platform more anxious is the issue of "holding a certificate" after the SARFT issued regulations.
The so-called "holding a certificate" means that the live broadcast platform should hold a license for the network communication of audio-visual program information issued by the administrative department of press, publication, radio, film and television. As of May 3, 20 161day, the General Administration * * * issued 588 licenses. These licensees include news publishing, enterprises and institutions, websites, etc. At present, there are only some live broadcast platforms, such as YY, Yingke and Huya. There are licenses, and large video platforms, such as Youku Tudou, Iqiyi and LeTV, all use the same licenses as their own live broadcast platforms, while other more live broadcast platforms have not found themselves licensed.
According to the regulations, it is forbidden for unlicensed institutions to open internet live broadcast rooms and provide live broadcast services in the form of personal network performing arts. In order to obtain this license, the live broadcast platform will face two major difficulties:
(1) The new applicant is now required to be a wholly state-owned or state-controlled unit;
(2) The registered capital should be more than100000 yuan.
Based on the above two thresholds, large-scale live broadcast platforms may try to apply for qualifications or cooperate with licensees to solve access problems, but small-scale live broadcast platforms may face the fate of being eliminated.
But this does not mean that large-scale live broadcast platforms can sit back and relax. What affects their development is probably whether their licenses have obtained two licenses related to the Notice. First, major political, military, economic, social, cultural, sports and other activities and events are broadcast live through the Internet, and the licensed items are the fifth item of the first type of Internet audio-visual program service; The second is to broadcast live audio and video of cultural activities, sports events and other organizational activities of general social groups through the Internet. The project that you should hold a license and license is the seventh item of the second type of Internet audio-visual program service.
This rule means that even if you have a license, but without the above permission, the live broadcast platform can not engage in live broadcast services of activities and events. It can be seen from these two articles that SARFT has restricted the columnization of live self-made programs, because the upgrade of live content is likely to involve many sensitive events, which is difficult to control effectively. Therefore, the live variety shows launched by many live broadcast platforms may be affected.
In addition to the "license" issue, another live broadcast platform has to worry about filing.
According to the radio and television notice, the relevant information should be reported to the local press, publication, radio and television administrative department at or above the provincial level for the record before the live broadcast. A live broadcast industry analyst said that this requirement should not have much impact on large companies, but it is basically a break for small and medium-sized companies and companies embarking on the road of entrepreneurship, because the State Administration of Radio, Film and Television will audit the units that provide live broadcast services to see if they have the corresponding technology, personnel, management conditions and content audit capabilities. Small and medium-sized companies and startups are estimated to be difficult to meet the standards.
In short, SARFT has strengthened the restrictions on the live broadcast platform in terms of access threshold and live broadcast content. Those platforms that rely on the beauty economy to attract attention should not only deal with strengthening supervision, but also face the current situation of user loss caused by the homogenization of their own content. With the tightening of regulatory policies, such live broadcasts are likely to be eliminated in this "cleaning".
Winter is coming, and the fruits of victory may be grabbed by giants.
Commercial giants have tried live water, which makes the competition of live broadcast platform more intense. Now the arrival of the "unexpected trouble" of SARFT can be expected to accelerate the reshuffle of the whole industry. The industry will enter the cooling period from the hot period, and may even enter the cold wave directly.
After shuffling, the surviving live broadcast platform may be difficult to recover for a long time. After all, they are famous because of the popularity of the whole industry, not because of their own business model and product innovation. Therefore, all the live broadcast platforms are in the same boat, but after the upsurge receded, some platforms fell into the water and drowned, but it was still difficult to get off the boat after surviving.
In this external environment, the fruits of online celebrity economy born because of live broadcast may eventually fall into the hands of giants. Among them, Alibaba and Tencent are most likely to grab the fruits of the success of the online celebrity economy. These two companies, born on the Internet, have now become the most valuable companies in Asia. Rich, willful and decisive, it is estimated that it is difficult for them to give up this opportunity.
Taking Alibaba as an example, rich e-commerce resources have a natural fit with the live broadcast platform. Network celebrity anchors can enjoy success by providing accurate shopping experience for fans, which is a great temptation for network celebrities. After all, for online celebrities, who bring their own traffic, the closest field to realizing cash may be selling things. Therefore, under the pressure of the inevitable recession of the live broadcast wave, in the face of such a crisis, many platform anchors should set foot in e-commerce.
However, it may not only be Ali who wins the live broadcast, because it will also face another powerful competitor, that is Tencent.
As an Internet business giant, Tencent can be said to have the largest number of users. Coupled with similar social models, Tencent can easily guide users to the live broadcast platform. With a steady stream of popularity, Tencent has always been good at how to commercialize traffic. Tencent also has the strength to compete with Ali in terms of funds, talents, users and advertisements. Therefore, the final destination of the live broadcast is ultimately the battle between Ali and Tencent.
Of course, besides Ali and Tencent having the best chance to grab the fruits of live broadcast, Weibo may also get a share in the final live broadcast craze, because its social advantages are somewhat similar to those of smaller Tencent. However, if you want to be the master of the live broadcast industry, it is estimated that it is difficult to cross the two mountains of Ali Tencent.
But whether Ali takes over or Tencent takes over, the final destination of live broadcast may become the function of a certain platform. It seems impossible to create a world by yourself.
In short, the economy of online celebrities, like a rising color bubble, has focused the attention of all walks of life in a short time, shaped a widely known business situation, is forming a business model with innovative content, and may even create an industrial chain. However, under these auras, it still can't hide its fragility. Once touched by the outside world, it is likely to cut off Hu for the business giant and put on other girls' wedding clothes.
Now the live broadcast of this outlet seems to have really stopped.
This reminds me of a poem: since ancient times, beauty is like a famous star, and it is forbidden to meet each other.