The development of mobile phones continues, and some details, processes and functions are constantly enriched and improved, but the homogenization is getting more and more serious, and everyone is developing in the same direction, which also makes it difficult to make a substantive breakthrough.
Now let's break down the development of smart phones.
There are only two mainstream screens, one is LCD screen, and the other is OLED screen. I believe that most friends know the characteristics, advantages and disadvantages of the two types of screens, so I won't introduce them too much here. What I want to say here is that LCD has existed for a long time and the technology is mature, which is beyond doubt, but it has developed to a bottleneck. For many years, it is only suitable to make the product bigger, display more pixels, or make another hole, and there is not much progress from the technical level. LED screen started late, developed quickly and played many games. Samsung AMOLED series is the best in the industry. In the past two years, it has not only developed in size and pixels, but also improved in refresh frequency and off-screen fingerprints. Recently, minilLED and flexible foldable screens are popular, which can be said that they have not yet developed into bottlenecks.
CPU The CPU of the mobile phone has been a bit of an arms race in recent years, but it is actually a bit too powerful. From 14nm to 7nm and then to 5nm, it has developed very rapidly in the past two or three years. But it can be clearly said that after the popularization of 5nm chips in the next year, the technology of mobile phone CPU will usher in a bottleneck period. Because according to Moore's law and the characteristics of silicon-based chips, 3nm will be the limit. The upgrading of the whole chip industry chain from 5nm to 3nm is much longer than that of 14nm to 7nm and 7nm to 5nm. If there is no new technological change during this period, the cpu bottleneck period will definitely come.
In recent years, the memory development of mobile phones is similar to that of CPU, and it develops rapidly, from 32G to 64G and then to 128G and 256G. Although there is no physical limit like a chip, the speed is likely to slow down after 256G, and it will not be a bottleneck in development.
The battery is currently dragging down the pace of mobile phones, that is, batteries! It can be said that the nature of mobile phone batteries has not changed much in the past ten years. Three years ago, the mainstream battery capacity reached about 4000mAh, and it is still at this level, and the increment is almost negligible. The capacity can be large or small, but when the phone is big, it will have to be bigger and thicker, which will affect the appearance and sales. The essence is that battery technology has not developed greatly. Now the development and discovery of graphene battery is put forward, hoping to make a substantial breakthrough as soon as possible.
Others, such as camera pixels, mobile phone manufacturing technology, small function improvement, system optimization and so on, have been developing, and there will be no bottlenecks for the time being.
The pixel of the rear main camera has been 1 100 million+,the screen is only one step away from the "true full screen", the running memory has started at 6GB, the cooling system has become an important internal configuration of a high-performance mobile phone, the fast charging of the mobile phone has exceeded 1.20 W, and the processor is about to enter the 5nm era.
With the gradual improvement of the hardware configuration of smart phones, the usable cycle of a smart phone is getting longer and longer, but in the hands of users, it can be summarized in four words-"Overperformance"!
As an ordinary mobile phone user, the requirements for mobile phones are nothing more than smooth response, long standby time, clear photos, fast charging speed and large storage space, which is the development direction of manufacturers.
But I don't agree with the view that the development of smart phones has entered a "bottleneck period", because there are still many directions worth exploring in the macro matter of smart phones.
1, battery
At present, the batteries used in smart phones are still lithium-ion polymers. Not only that, but other digital products are also using this battery. Although it is better than the previous generation battery, it is still a pain point for many users in standby state. Although most mobile phones have been equipped with super fast charging function, battery solutions with smaller size, larger capacity and longer life will be favored by more people in the future.
2. Super artificial intelligence system
As we all know, the current development prospects make everyone optimistic about AIoT, and smart phones are only the entrance to the whole AIoT, so it is extremely important to have a humanized AI robot. When you say "I want a cup of coffee!" At that time, it no longer jumped to the search engine, but provided you with the necessary alternatives through the powerful AI brain to help you solve the problem.
3. Processor
Processor is the core component of smart phone, and its fine manufacturing process determines the performance and power consumption of the whole phone. At present, top processors all adopt 7nm technology, and 5nm technology has also been put on the agenda. Future 3nm, 2nm or even finer manufacturing technologies are worth studying.
4. Operating system
At present, the smartphone market is divided into two parts: IOS and Android. Although the IOS system is good, it is only open to independent brands. Although Android is ubiquitous, it is vulnerable to malicious software attacks, and its biggest drawback is its slow response after long-term use. Therefore, the future smart phone needs an operating system that is between IOS and Android, unconstrained, and has superior performance and functions.
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As for the development of cameras, screens, storage and fast charging. For ordinary users, it can only be summarized as "excess performance". For such a development direction, it is also the goal for small assembly plants to compete for favor in the market, and there is no core competitiveness in the future.
On the road of smart phone development, it can be said that there will never be a bottleneck. As long as someone puts it forward on a strong scientific basis, someone will realize it. This road is endless, because technology is endless!
Far from reaching the bottleneck, far from reaching the bottleneck. No technology company will release its most advanced technology at one time. Only by squeezing toothpaste can the freshness be guaranteed continuously.
Take CPU as an example. Although the current CPU has been made into 7 nanometers, it may be made into 5 nanometers or even 3 nanometers in the future. Even if it is not pushed out, it is possible to add more transistors by increasing the volume of some CPU to achieve faster speed.
Besides, talk about the camera. Although the number of mobile phone pixels has exceeded 100 million, there is still a lot of room for improvement. In the future, mobile phone manufacturers are likely to launch10.50 billion or even10.80 billion pixel mobile phones. Even if the number of pixels does not increase, mobile phone manufacturers will improve the definition of the camera by increasing the bottom of the camera. In addition, there are many ways to play the camera besides pixels. For example, the micro-pan/tilt launched by vivo mobile phone and the AI algorithm launched by various manufacturers. Another big trick of the camera has not been released, which is to increase the clarity of the camera through peripherals. Future mobile phones will probably be able to connect lenses or other hardware.
Every function of the mobile phone has a very large room for improvement, and only the lithium battery has limited improvement. If there is a qualitative breakthrough in lithium battery technology in the future, I believe that mobile phone manufacturers will definitely develop more black technologies.
Personally, I haven't felt that new technologies are emerging one after another. Smartphones are also keeping up with the pace of new technologies and constantly upgrading. Now is the 5G replacement period, from 4G to 5G mobile phones. In the future, with the popularity of 5G, various emerging applications will bear fruit with high bandwidth and high speed, thus promoting the continuous upgrading of mobile phones.
For example, in the 3G and 4G era, technology and applications continue to promote the development of smart phones, and now the same is true in the 5G era.
Looking at this problem as a whole, the development of smart phones is also phased, and there will be no great innovations and breakthroughs every year. After all, technological innovation takes time. Let's take apples as an example. As the industry leader, Apple has always been the vane of the mobile phone industry. For example, Apple X uses organic light-emitting diodes, and the whole world follows them. Apple has always been famous for its innovation, but it has also made great innovations in different time periods. Under normal circumstances, Apple will have a big upgrade every 3-4 years: the classic iPhone 4, 13 adopts fingerprint recognition technology, the iPhone X adopts organic light-emitting diode screen in 17, and 2 1 will adopt LTPO and other technologies. The question of the subject can actually be considered from the following angles: Where will the smart phone break through?
1, processor, mobile phone running speed is one of the important characteristics pursued by smart phones at present. No one wants their mobile phone to run at a poor speed. At present, both Samsung and TSMC are actively deploying 5nm and 3nm chips, and they all know who will win the chip technology, which means who will lead the chip foundry. Of course, this is a problem facing Huawei!
2. Screen, Samsung is undoubtedly the overlord of global screen supply at present. Although domestic enterprises such as BOE and Huaxing Optoelectronics have risen rapidly in recent years, there is still a big gap compared with Samsung. In addition, Samsung will obviously not give in easily, such as the current popular LTPO technology and screen camera technology. Samsung is still in the lead. The development direction of the screen is low power consumption, high portrait display, high refresh rate, off-screen camera shooting, etc. We are still in a relatively backward state in these aspects.
3. battery. At present, with the improvement of the performance of smart phones, power consumption has also increased significantly, so battery life will be one of the important guarantees of mobile phones. Therefore, large-capacity battery and fast charging technology will be one of the technological development contents that mobile phone terminals and battery manufacturers must consider. For example, OPPO will release 125W fast charging technology tomorrow, which can fill 4000mA in 5 minutes, and 15 minutes will bring many people.
4. The improvement of photography and mobile phone photography technology has brought great challenges to many traditional camera manufacturers, and even they have to go bankrupt because of huge losses. At present, there are hundreds of millions of pixels or even higher, and there are multiple cameras for image quality compensation. The quality of photos is also gradually improving. You know, many mobile phones started with camera technology, such as VIVO.
5, form, Samsung's Galzxy Fold series, Huawei's Mate X series are selling well, and even fired tens of thousands of units, one machine is hard to find. Therefore, folding or even coiling mobile phones in the future is also one of the development directions of mobile phones. This kind of breakthrough is really not a matter of one year or two.
According to the latest research report, after the rare contraction of the smartphone market in the second quarter of this year, the global smartphone shipments reached 373,654,380+billion units in the third quarter of this year, only 2.7% higher than the 363.4 million units in the third quarter of 2065,438+06.
Sogou asked.
According to the report, under the overall slowdown of the global market, the mobile phone market in China is highly concentrated, the market competition is fierce, and the cost of spare parts and supply chain is soaring, further diluting the profits of mobile phone manufacturers, increasing the pressure of survival and slowing down the growth of the global smart phone market.
Sogou asked.
Facing the pressure, Zhao Ming, president of Glory, said in an interview with Voice of China that the team in China has matured due to the development of channels. After gaining a firm foothold in the China market, Glory brand will put more energy into the global market construction, and stick to the asset-light mode to go overseas.
Sogou asked.
According to industry insiders, the industry has encountered development bottlenecks, the competitive advantage of products based on traditional thinking has rapidly leveled off, the development of smart phones has changed from fast to slow, and product innovation has changed from characteristics to ordinary. It is obviously not enough to try to reverse the situation only through strategic changes in the market and marketing.
I hope the smart phone industry in China can continue to develop!
Has the smartphone reached the bottleneck at present? It's hard to make another big breakthrough? Let me answer this question. The development of smart phones is far from reaching the bottleneck, but is constantly upgrading.
The first smart phone recognized in the world is IBM Simon, which was born in 1993. It is the first smart phone with touch screen in the world, but it was not until the birth of Apple's first smart phone in 2007 that smart phones became popular all over the world and were introduced into the China market.
After more than ten years of development, smart phones have entered the 5G era, and the development of hardware chips has reached the 5nm process. With the innovation of new materials and new processes, the processes of 3nm, 2nm and 1nm are all in the pre-research, and Moore's law is still alive.
With the development of science and technology, mobile phones are bound to have powerful functions, mainly in the following aspects.
As an indispensable partner in life, mobile phones will be constantly updated with the development of science and technology. In the foreseeable future, there will be no bottleneck in development and great potential.
Smartphones are far from reaching the bottleneck. When everything develops to a certain extent, either break the cocoon into a butterfly and move on, or die silently and pile up in the corner!
In the past ten years, smart phones have been changing our living habits, replacing many things we have used. Such as letters, maps, MP3, MP4, newspapers, alarm clocks, wallets, game machines, etc. Smart phones have become an indispensable personal item for modern people every day. A mobile phone can accomplish many things! Of course, these functions are gradually developed during the growth of smart phones. It is true that the smart phone that has been arrogant since the release of the iPhone has finally slowed down and encountered bottlenecks in all industries. However, smartphones are partially saturated. If there is no breakthrough innovation, both Apple, Samsung and domestic brands will face the bottleneck of growth.
However, we can still see some bleak future trends from the current smartphones.
Folding screen design has a long way to go.
First of all, the most popular concept at the moment is the folding screen concept, which should be the biggest upgrade to the full-screen concept. All manufacturers have shown great enthusiasm, and Samsung and Huawei have achieved mass production of folding screens. Needless to say, a larger screen size will bring a more shocking visual experience, but the disadvantages are equally obvious. Regardless of the thickness of the fuselage, user interaction and functional experience, the most important thing is the initial cost of the new technology. After all, the price of tens of thousands of yuan is not affordable for everyone.
For smart phones, users' needs are always contradictory. They want the body to be smaller and thinner, but they want the screen to be bigger and bigger. This seemingly contradictory existence, despite many difficulties, has promoted the continuous progress of mobile phone manufacturers. Some companies give the idea that, for example, Samsung, Microsoft and other companies are developing foldable mobile phones, which make the screen foldable, flexible and retractable and reduce the size of smart phones.
Holographic projection smartphone
Through holographic projection, various operations can be realized without a huge body. I believe many friends are very concerned about the "Iron Man" series movies of Marvel Comics. The artificial intelligence of that suit of armor is amazing. It can not only communicate with Iron Man, but also analyze the status and remotely call armor and other functions. In short, it's amazing. Although the current AI function and voice assistant have been added to smart phones, their application status can no longer be low. Will the future smart phones be as powerful as the artificial intelligence of Iron Man armor? As long as a simple conversation, all kinds of operations can be realized?
Technology is improving day by day, and with the continuous research and development of mobile phone manufacturers, these sci-fi will become mass production. The vision for the future is to innovate now. I believe that smart phones will still develop in the future, so there will inevitably be new changes and breakthroughs!
Now this level is far from reaching its peak. It can only be said that people are middle-aged, upright and developing at a high speed! No development. Has there been a big change in each of these three years? The processor is updated every year. In the past, no one dared to say 3-4 G in mobile games. Now look at peace, king, screen, battery, appearance and fast charge, which are changing every year. Science and technology are developing and the times are progressing! It will only get bigger and bigger in the future, and it will not reach its peak easily!
I think the arrival of smart phones is cross-generational, because the function machine at that time has been ahead of history for more than ten years, and the experience that smart phones can bring is unmatched by function machines, but there has been no substantial breakthrough in the essence of smart phones over the years.
In recent years, the smart phone has given me the feeling that the screen is getting bigger and bigger, the processor is getting stronger and stronger, the pixels are getting higher and higher, and the experience is getting better and better, but it feels more comprehensive and better than the previous smart phone. In recent years, some mobile phone manufacturers have indeed developed black technology for mobile phones, which makes the role of mobile phones in daily use more perfect, but I don't think it is cross-generational.
It is equivalent to that in the era of functional machines, mobile phones have cameras and MP3 functions. It is true that mobile phones have new technologies, but in essence, mobile phones are still functional machines, which is obviously different from the era of smart phones.
In recent years, mobile phone manufacturers have given me the feeling that CPU and camera are the fiercest competitors. Now the number of cameras has changed from one to three or four, and the number of pixels is also increasing frequently, with the highest even reaching 100 million pixels. The same is true for CPU. In the past, the RAM was 1G2G, but now the RAM is 6G8G 12G, and so is the mobile phone content. Now 64G memory is basically the lowest.
However, we have to admit that with the powerful functions of mobile phones, the requirements for mobile phone storage space will indeed be higher, especially for some people who like to take photos and take photos with their mobile phones.