Following the report of Maotai's high growth in February, listed liquor companies such as Wuliangye, Fenjiu and Jiugui Liquor successively published the 20021annual report or February 2022 report, as follows:

Wuliangye 202 1 is expected to achieve an operating income of 66.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of/kloc-0.5%, and a net profit of 23.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of/kloc-0.7%.

Shanxi Fenjiu is expected to achieve an operating income of 7.4 billion yuan in June and February 2022, a year-on-year increase of 35%, and a net profit of 2.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50%.

Jiugui Liquor is expected to achieve operating income of1400 million yuan in June-February 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 120% and a net profit of 465 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 130%.

The performance is bullish. What's going on here? Didn't you say that the liquor cycle is peak and young people don't drink liquor? How can liquor enterprises have such a high growth? This paper tries to answer these questions.

There are several famous ghost stories about liquor:

1. The liquor industry cycle peaked.

I have expounded this point in the past articles, and those who are interested can read it in my column. This ghost story has been broken with the major liquor companies announcing their 22-year performance in February 1 and1.

2. Young people don't drink white wine

This is actually not a ghost story, because young people really don't drink white wine. Today's young people have several characteristics. First, pay attention to health. It's normal not to be interested in alcohol, which is a kind of carcinogen. The second income has not risen, and it is difficult for hundreds of thousands of liquor to become a product that young people often consume. Young people eat, a table of dishes may not be as expensive as a bottle of white wine. It may be true that young people don't drink liquor and are not users of liquor. This is not nonsense.

Then we have to think, why do young people not drink liquor, and the liquor industry can still achieve rapid growth? Logically speaking, it may be because young people are only marginal users of liquor, and the main consumers of liquor are not young people. Liquor consumption is mainly business banquets, wedding banquets, and rich people's dinners. It really has little to do with young people drinking or gathering with friends.

When young people are older, their income and social status have improved, and they will also drink white wine. This is determined by the social, cultural and commercial environment, not by personal will.

3. Liquor is unhealthy. Modern people pay attention to a healthy lifestyle, and the consumption of liquor will be less and less.

Drinking is really unhealthy. I don't deny this at all. I also advocate that everyone should drink less. But when investing, we should not look at what "should" is, but what "facts" are, and we should not be self-righteous. As I said, liquor, especially high-end liquor, is a kind of social currency, and you can drink it if you want. If you don't drink, there is no business to talk about, and the boss will let you go the next day. What should I do? Many people hate this wine table culture in China, including me, but still, investment is not a place to talk about personal emotions, and we should respect the facts.

Similar stories will be staged in many places, such as drinking coke is unhealthy and you will get diabetes. Then I tell you, eating white rice and noodles is unhealthy, and eating sweets is unhealthy, which will increase the risk of diabetes. The healthiest thing is to eat coarse grains. Well, how long can you last on coarse grains? Smoking is also extremely harmful. How many smokers are there in China?

The healthiest way of life is to exercise regularly, eat less rice and noodles, eat more coarse grains, don't smoke and drink, play less games and study more, work hard, go to bed early and get up early and don't stay up late. If you can do this, I admire you very much. You are really an extremely self-disciplined person, and you are bound to make extraordinary achievements. But my column is an investment column, and I will only tell you what the facts are. The fact is that human beings are animals driven by dopamine, and their love of playing and eating sweets has been engraved in our genes. Most people may only be able to do two or three of them, but to be honest, they are quite excellent people.

Back to liquor, from the performance of liquor enterprises, China people not only love to drink liquor, but also love to drink liquor, and more and more like to drink famous wine and good wine. This is a fact, there is nothing to argue about.

4. Liquor is picked up and fried, not drunk.

Maotai has really been hoarded, because it can appreciate in these years. But have other liquors that can't appreciate been hoarded? What are dealers or individuals doing hoarding these liquors? Of course, this matter cannot be falsified. We outsiders can't know what bars people have hoarded in their warehouses. I just judge logically that the theory of hoarding wine is not reasonable.

Tell a few ghost stories about liquor, and then talk about the advantages of liquor industry. First of all, the above analysis shows that the demand for liquor is stable. As long as the liquor culture of China people remains unchanged, the demand side of liquor industry is safe. Secondly, from the cost side, the raw material of liquor is grain, and the price is relatively stable. Commodity prices soared this year, and other industries complained bitterly. Only the liquor industry is unique here, and the cost side does have great advantages. Then the production technology of liquor is outdated and the cost is very low. Liquor does not need to develop new products, and a bottle of Tian Fei Maotai can be sold forever. Finally, liquor belongs to consumable consumer goods. You have to buy another bottle after drinking one bottle, and you have to pay in cash every time. Liquor enterprises have a good cash flow.

So are there any shortcomings in the liquor industry? Of course, there are some. Liquor industry mainly has the following shortcomings:

1. Single product type.

General liquor enterprises can only produce liquor, not red wine and beer, which makes it impossible for liquor enterprises to make a second growth curve. If the cycle peaks, it really peaks.

2. The industry competition is extremely fierce.

There used to be eight famous wines, fourteen famous wines and many well-known liquor brands. If enterprises blindly refuse to make progress and sleep on the credit book, they may still be subverted.

The above contents are personal opinions and are for reference only. Please don't use them as a basis for investment. Thank you!