Simply put, consumer finance is a modern financial service mode in which the fund provider (namely consumer finance company) directly or indirectly provides cash loans, commodity installment payment and consumer credit to consumers at all levels.
Compared with the traditional credit loan business provided by banks, consumer finance business has the characteristics of small average credit line, short loan term, quick approval and no need for mortgage guarantee, and the use of funds is limited to the purchase of durable consumer goods such as household appliances and electronic products, or personal non-profit consumption such as tourism, wedding, education and decoration.
There are four business models of consumer finance: the business model of bank consumer finance is mainly credit card, supplemented by automobile loan and consumer loan; The corresponding business models of licensed consumer finance companies are mainly consumer loans and cash loans; For e-commerce and payment platforms with online small loan licenses, the consumer finance business model is mainly based on commodity installment and bill installment, among which the new Internet consumer finance platform also includes consumer loans and credit card compensation; In addition, many unlicensed entrepreneurial platforms also participate in consumer finance business in the form of diversion and loan assistance.
According to the Report on the Development of Consumer Finance Companies in China (20021) issued by China Banking Association on July 26th, 20021,by the end of 2020, the assets of consumer finance companies had exceeded 500 billion yuan for the first time, reaching 524.649 billion yuan. Cumulative number of customers served 163394700, up by 28.37% year-on-year.
As of June, 20021year, there were 30 consumer finance companies registered in China, and the era of horse racing has ended and polarization has intensified.
Recently, the Consumer Finance Channel, together with China Index Research Institute, TOP 100 Organizing Committee and other institutions, released the 202 1 Top 30 list of consumer financial institutions, among which TOP 10 is as follows:
Consumer finance is consumption in advance or credit consumption, and its essence is borrowing. Therefore, the fundamental profit of consumer finance companies is to earn spreads, mainly interest income, handling fees and commission income. However, it does not mean that the greater the overdue ratio and the higher the overdue amount in the total loan balance, the more profits the company will make.
Consumer finance companies need to implement risk control in three aspects: before lending, during lending and after lending, so as to achieve a balance between overdue interest income and the proportion of non-performing assets and maximize benefits.
The pre-lending approval process of consumer finance business includes five links: APP application-anti-fraud approval-credit rules approval-cash withdrawal approval-lending.
For consumer finance companies, the ultimate goal of risk control is to make profits for the company. Therefore, in the whole risk control process, the primary concern index is the overall asset quality.
Through the monthly report of asset quality, consumer enterprises can understand the current asset composition, bad changes and future asset maturity. From the perspective of asset increase, combined with customer changes and risk changes, this paper makes a comprehensive comparison of various channels and analyzes the reasons for related changes.
The overall analysis framework and related core indicators are as follows.
1. Asset profile
The core indicators of asset profile include asset size and asset structure, which should focus on the following contents:
(1) Changes in non-performing balance. According to the adjustment requirements of the five-level classification in the latest Guidelines for Loan Risk Classification issued by China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (document No.54 [2007] of Yinbao Jianfa), loan categories are classified directly according to the loan term by default method, and loans overdue for more than 60 days are counted as non-performing assets. ? Therefore, among the above indicators, the most important thing to pay attention to is the change of non-performing balance, that is, the change of the amount overdue for more than 60 days, and the corresponding aging is M2.
(2) Weighted average duration. Because the product pricing is related to the term, interest rate and amount of the loan, the measurement of the loan term also needs to consider the influence of the amount on it. that is
(3) Balance and aging distribution of assets due in the future. Because the balance of M2 mainly comes from the unpaid balance of M 1, there are also a few unpaid balances of high-aged IOUs such as M3 and M4 that roll back to M2. Therefore, in terms of asset structure, we will generally pay attention to the balance of assets due in the next 0-3 months and 3-6 months, and the aging distribution of each stage in at least one year, so as to control the non-performing rate in time.
(4) Proportion of the balance of interest-related loans. According to the requirement of five-level classification of credit assets in China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission according to the overdue method, loans of concern are loans overdue for 4-60 days. The proportion of concern loans is directly related to the asset quality and the rationality and robustness of the asset structure of consumer finance companies. Therefore, the balance of concern loans should be consistent with the regulatory reporting.
2. Risk status
Risk control analysis is divided into three parts, including credit risk analysis, fraud risk analysis and collection analysis.
(1) First pass rate. The rate at which the first payment is overdue. The first excess can measure the borrower's willingness and ability to repay, which is generally calculated by the amount dimension, that is,
(2)mob 6 & amp； Wine 60+. Observing the vintage performance of the loan balance in each aging stage can approximate the quality change of the loan and predict the future performance. It should be noted that in the calculation formula of vintage index at this time, the denominator should be the loan balance before disposal, so that the asset quality can be observed more directly.
(3) Asset quality matrix. That is, the X-axis is the ratio of the weighted average interest rate level to the balance level, and the Y-axis is the non-performing rate level, which is used to analyze the changes of assets and compare the changes of indicators between two months, observe the rationality of product pricing strategy through the interest rate and non-performing matrix diagram, and observe the rationality of placing strategy through the balance and non-performing matrix diagram.
(4) Malicious delay rate. In the credit approval stage, applicants need to pass anti-fraud rules before they can enter the follow-up procedures. Similarly, in the middle and post-lending stages, there are corresponding indicators to prevent such credit risks, such as malicious delay rate. Malicious delay refers to the behavior of never repaying after loans overdue, which is generally concentrated on the outstanding IOUs in the first three periods. Failure to return the first three issues is regarded as malicious delay. In order to eliminate the influence of the amount, it is generally measured by the dimension of IOUs to approximate the proportion of fraudulent transactions. The formula is as follows:
(5) Pressure drop rate. That is, the reduction of overdue loan balance over a period of time. Half of them take 14 and 30 days as statistical time points to observe the effect of post-loan collection, which also reflects the borrower's actual repayment ability and willingness. The specific formula is as follows:
When consumer finance enters the mature stage of the industry, the explosive growth of the consumer finance industry has pressed the pause button, and the performance differentiation has become increasingly clear; In addition, the recent downward adjustment of 1 year LPR quotation has further restricted the annualized interest rate of consumer loans, and the profit margin of consumer finance companies has gradually narrowed. The current industry competition makes risk control capability and capital cost become important factors for the profit and development of consumer finance companies, and it is also the general trend to realize big data risk control with the help of financial technology.