I. Analysis of Market Operation in 2006
(A) the characteristics of market operation
1, urban market scale expansion. With the comprehensive start of Datong Road Commercial Pedestrian Street and the improvement of Yihe Road Pedestrian Street, the urban consumer goods market has achieved a leap-forward expansion, from a single commercial center on Renmin Road in the past to a number of commercial centers with reasonable layout, strong professionalism and diverse varieties. Well-known brands at home and abroad have settled in Yucheng. In 2006, 16 famous clothing brands were added. 12 electric vehicle brand; 6 bathroom brands; Household appliances for daily use are 19. Due to the expansion of market scale and the formation of professional market, the retail sales of goods have increased rapidly. In the whole year, the retail sales of social consumer goods in the county reached11.1.90 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.5%.
2. The rural market is prosperous and active. Since 2005, our county has been identified as the pilot county of "Thousand Villages and Thousand Townships Market Project" in the whole province, which was carried out in depth in 2006. Up to now, the county has rebuilt and built 373 rural farm shops, which greatly improved the rural consumption market environment, prospered the rural economy and stimulated rural market consumption. In 2006, the retail sales of social consumer goods in rural areas of our county reached 558 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.6%.
3. The catering industry is growing steadily. In 2006, the retail sales of catering industry reached 250 million yuan, an increase of 9.6%, and the growth rate was 3 percentage points higher than that of the previous year, among which the large and medium-sized catering industry reached 65.438+0.5 billion yuan, an increase of 65.438+0.6%; Small catering industry and self-employed households realized 70 million yuan, an increase of 10%. Wedding banquets have maintained a strong momentum, especially since the winter of 2006, large and medium-sized hotels are almost full every day, and the urban and rural catering industry continues to maintain a strong growth trend.
4. Supermarket consumption dominates. In 2006, there were more than 500 supermarkets in urban and rural areas. Through the construction of "market project of thousands of villages and towns", urban and rural supermarkets (farm shops) have developed rapidly, and supermarket consumption has become fashionable. In 2006, the turnover of supermarkets reached 200 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20%.
5. The individual business economy has developed rapidly. Wholesale and retail sales of individual trade, catering and other industries reached 654.38+0.56 billion yuan, up by 6543.8+0.06% year-on-year, accounting for 93% of the total retail sales of consumer goods in the whole society in absolute terms.
6. Prices are relatively stable, and the prices of daily necessities have risen locally. In 2006, the consumer price level of the county remained stable. Under the guidance of the national macro-policy and market, by June 5,438+10, the total consumer price index had only increased by 0.5%. After June 65438+ 10, the price of meat and poultry noodles increased by an average of 10%, but the tolerance of urban and rural residents to price fluctuations increased.
(B) the main reasons for consumption growth
First, the rapid economic development and the increase in residents' income have laid the foundation for consumption growth. In 2006, the per capita disposable income of urban residents was 6,856 yuan, a year-on-year increase of16.6%; The per capita cash income of farmers was 2,483 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18%. The increase in the income of cash crops and migrant workers has provided a guarantee for enhancing residents' consumption confidence and expanding consumption.
Second, opening to the outside world has stimulated consumption growth. In 2006, the export earnings of our county were15.2 million USD, of which self-export was 565,438+million USD, up 43.8% year-on-year. 386 investment projects were completed, with 2.46 billion yuan in funds. With the growth of foreign trade export and investment in fixed assets, it has greatly boosted the rapid growth of domestic demand in our county.
Third, the guiding role of macro-control policies is obvious. Since the beginning of this year, the national macro-control policies have been strengthened, and relevant policies have been introduced in fixed assets investment, education fees, drug prices, social security, and new rural construction, which have played an obvious regulatory role, relatively relieved consumers' worries, thus enhancing consumer confidence.
Fourth, a variety of marketing methods have expanded commodity sales. The wholesale, retail and catering industries in urban and rural areas make full use of various sales opportunities throughout the year to carry out various promotional activities, which not only prospers the market, but also stimulates consumption, promotes the expansion of urban and rural consumption market capacity, promotes the activity and development of commercial and catering markets, and realizes the simultaneous improvement of social and economic benefits.
Fifth, the consumption environment has changed. Over the past year, with the expansion of the market scale and the formation of some professional markets, the construction of the "market project of thousands of villages and thousands of townships" system and the in-depth development of rectifying and standardizing the market economic order have purified the urban and rural markets and provided a better consumption environment for consumers to consume safely and safely.
(C) The prominent contradictions and problems faced by the consumer market
First, the consumption of spot currency is insufficient, the willingness to consume is not strong, and the total consumption is insufficient. Yucheng County is a key county in national poverty alleviation and development work, with weak agricultural disaster resistance, weak industrial foundation, relatively poor commercial and catering industry foundation and small scale, and no comprehensive market and circulation. The proportion of urban population in the total population is low, and the proportion of families with annual income below 20 thousand yuan is large, which determines the lack of support for expanding consumption and restricts the expansion of consumption scale. At the same time, a large proportion of low-and middle-income groups are affected by education, unemployment, medical care, old-age care and uncertain expectations. The cautious attitude of frugality and the traditional performance of frugality have far-reaching influence, which restricts the expansion of consumption capacity to a certain extent, and the contradiction of insufficient consumption is more prominent.
Second, consumer goods and prices rose, and people's satisfaction declined. Under the influence of various market factors, people's satisfaction with the price of consumer goods has declined. Since the beginning of the year, the prices of refined oil, water, electricity, coal and gas have been raised one after another, the prices of building materials and agricultural materials are firm, and the prices of education, medical care and housing are uncertain. The people are not optimistic about the future price expectations. Since June 165438+ 10, the prices of most grain, oil and non-staple foods have been rising continuously, which has caused certain fluctuations in the market. After September, pig dealers competed for pigs, which led to the peak price of pork in cities and towns, which had a great negative impact on the supply of holiday market and the consumption of non-staple food in the first half of 2007.
Second, the market trend forecast in 2007
In 2007, the county's consumer goods market will continue to maintain stability and accelerate growth. It is estimated that the total retail sales of social consumer goods will reach 206,543.8 billion yuan, an increase of more than 12% over the previous year, and the vast rural market will increase by more than 10%.
From the perspective of the national market, there are many favorable factors. First, the domestic economy will continue to maintain rapid growth in 2006. Relevant departments and experts predict that the GDP will increase by 10.5% in 2006 and will continue to increase by 9.5%- 10.0% in 2007. Economic development and internal demand remain strong; Second, with the coordinated development of the economy, the income level of residents will increase steadily, especially the pace of new rural construction will be accelerated, the rural market environment will be improved, farmers' income will continue to grow, and purchasing power will continue to increase; Third, the state pays more attention to circulation and expands consumption. The positive effects of a series of policies and measures to promote the reform and development of the circulation industry will gradually emerge, creating conditions for expanding domestic demand and stimulating consumption. The 2008 Beijing Olympic Games has entered the countdown, and the consumption of commodities around the Olympic Games has started in an all-round way, and a new opportunity for Olympic consumption has arrived. Judging from the international market, it has been five years since China joined the WTO, and various contracts will be implemented soon. The influence and restriction of international market on China market has increased, and the conditions for China market to enter the world market are ripe. In 65438+February, the export tax rebate rate of steel, textiles, furniture and other products was lowered, thus increasing domestic supply and restraining future price increases.
But at the same time, there are some unfavorable factors. First, the trade environment in the international market is tightening, and the anti-dumping trade friction is intensifying; Second, although the international crude oil market is loose, the price is still running at a high level, which has brought many influences to China's economy and increased market risks; Third, the large-scale price increase in the domestic consumer goods market restricts the expansion of consumption; Fourth, a large proportion of commodities are in oversupply, and overcapacity in most industries will increase the pressure on market supply and demand, which will have a certain impact on expanding circulation and consumption.
From the Yucheng market, firstly, the county party committee and county government pay more attention to and guide the circulation industry, and the pace and intensity of building a harmonious new Yucheng will be accelerated, which will provide a good policy environment, social environment and humanistic environment for opening up urban and rural markets, enhancing consumer confidence and expanding consumption; Second, the increase of new projects such as roads, electric power and urban construction, and the increase of investment attraction will certainly play a positive role in expanding employment, promoting the development of related industries and increasing the income of employees. The improvement of rural infrastructure such as access and water supply will certainly stimulate the promotion of consumption desire and consumption upgrading; Third, the government manages the wage income of farmers going out to work and migrant workers as a whole, and a large number of labor mobility will increase cash income; Fourth, the commercial department strengthens the arrangement of holiday market, which has a great promotion and promotion effect on tourism, consumer goods market and catering service and entertainment industry; Fifth, the shops in the middle and western section of Datong Road will be fully completed, and more than 654.38+10,000 square meters of supermarkets, retail stores, shopping malls, trading markets and restaurants will be newly opened, which will not only facilitate consumers' consumption, but also increase consumers' choice space.