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The sixth country has just popularized the seventh country. How long will this old car last?
From the first national platoon to the sixth national platoon, it does not exceed 20 years, with an average iteration of 4 years.

The craziest thing to say is that on the eve of the implementation of the National Sixth Emission in 20 19, the ATS-L with the lowest price of170,000 and the Alfa Romeo with half price made many car owners take the opportunity to buy a wave of luxury cars. I got a new car when I crossed the street, but with the promulgation and implementation of the detailed rules for moving restrictions in various places, many car owners who didn't change their cars looked at how long they had been driving and the price dropped a lot, so they had to smile bitterly.

However, it's less than 1 year since the National Five Crazy, and now it's only more than two months since the National Six was fully rolled out, but there's another bad news that scares car companies and car owners-National Seven is coming again!

People's Daily reported an article about the Seventh National Congress, suggesting that the Seventh National Congress has been put on the agenda. As soon as this news came out, netizens went straight to the oil pan. Just last year, the Sixth National Congress began to prepare for the seven major emissions. Is this really a bit "premature"?

Many friends who play with cars in the Tiger circle always think that Liu Guo has castrated the power for emission, and even Guo Qi will castrate the engine when he comes.

Country five rose to country six.

Instead, the motivation has regressed for five years.

Many grandfathers know that the original hatchback Civic some time ago turned out to be a 1.5T engine. The zero-hundred-acceleration hatchback is more than 2 seconds slower than the fifth version of the car, although it has one type? The shadow of R, the book data are all 1.5T? L4? 177 horsepower, but the actual power is not as good as that of brother.

This problem of power decline is actually the first "tightening spell" that the National Sixth National Congress discharged to the engine.

The restrictions on nitrogen oxides and particulate matter in the sixth country are much stricter than those in the fifth country. In order to reduce nitrogen oxides, the combustion temperature must be controlled, which means to improve the original exhaust gas recirculation combustion rate, so the intake air temperature becomes higher and the engine is lost.

The working principle of EGR is mainly to use part of exhaust gas to participate in combustion and optimize the combustion process (the specific influence of EGR on combustion is omitted here). Of course, EGR cannot be expanded at will. For example, on Toyota's latest mass production machine, the combustion efficiency is 465,438+0%. By changing the VVT, changing the hardware structure to increase the tumbling speed, and changing the spray angle and ignition time, the EGR can be expanded from the general 65,438+05% to about 30%, thus improving efficiency and reducing emissions.

(Car owners who have driven the new Camry also know that low speed is really meat. )

In order to reach the national six B? Emission requirements, almost all gasoline vehicles are equipped with GPF. This GPF system has many advantages. For example, the engine will not have to make too many performance and fuel consumption sacrifices for particulate emissions during cold start and rapid acceleration, nor will it have to worry about particulate emissions caused by carbon deposition in the injector.

However, Cheng was also lost. Because there is a "big mask" behind the tee position, it will increase the exhaust pressure of the engine and require higher engine knock control. Moreover, the three-way catalytic converter will not overheat because of the exhaust pressure problem, so the only way out is to solve it through Atkinson.

(Three-way catalytic converter on the left and particle trap on the right)

As new components are added to the waste gas treatment, the maintenance and replacement costs of the waste gas treatment system will naturally increase. If the annual inspection fails in the future, GPF may be replaced at the same time as the three-way catalytic converter, and the extra money will have to be paid by the owner.

The seventh national day has little influence on family cars.

The focus is on commercial diesel vehicles.

Finally, we came to the national seventh emission link that everyone is most concerned about. Let me start with an internal matter. In fact, last year, the main engine factory knew some information about the country. Compared with the national standard, the national standard is 30% stricter, and the CATC cycle will be adopted, which is planned to be implemented in the middle of 2024 at the earliest. The biggest highlight of this is the CATC cycle, which is a domestic test standard, which can more truly simulate the customary road conditions of domestic car owners, and the previously applicable EU emission test method will be cancelled as soon as possible.

But it is unlikely that there will be another wave of price wars in which the country rose from five to six last year. After last year's carnival, everyone gained wisdom. When the Seventh National Congress was formulated, it had already communicated with car companies in advance. Everyone has a bottom, and engine research and development has basically started this year. Therefore, if you want to copy the bottom, it is estimated that you have to have "contacts".

On the other hand, if the National Seventh Plan is really to be implemented in four years, the drivers of diesel car factories and those commercial vehicles will be the most unlucky. The main emissions of gasoline vehicles are carbon monoxide, while the main emissions of diesel engines are nitrogen oxides, nitrogen oxides, PM particles (including DS smoke), followed by HC hydrocarbons. Compared with gasoline engines, diesel engines have much less CO, CO and HC hydrocarbons, but much more PM particles. The black smoke we see from diesel engines is PM particles.

However, the logistics network in our country mostly stays in the mode of railway+automobile transportation, and some diesel commercial vehicles of Guosan, which have been in operation for 67 years, are still the main force. These commercial vehicles used for transportation generally have a service life of about 654.38+5 million kilometers in 2000, and then they are directly scrapped.

Therefore, the most frightening estimate of the national seven emissions is the bosses of commercial vehicle drivers in the national four.

In fact, in the short term, it is foreseeable that emission regulations will definitely become stricter. In fact, it is not difficult to see some clues from the actions of three factories in Germany. Volkswagen BMW mainly focuses on electrification of fuel vehicles, while Mercedes-Benz mainly promotes 48V light mixing technology, including Jeep herdsman, which is famous for its off-road vehicles, and still uses plug-in hybrid technology to deal with stricter emission regulations.

Back to gentlemen, if National Five is to be eliminated one day, this cycle is basically the day when National Eight emission standards are implemented. The emission standards are basically upgraded every 3-5 years, so the time when vehicles emitted by the National Five are restricted is expected to be between 2025 and 2029. Taking the middle number, it is estimated to be around 2027.

It's 2020, and it will be about seven years before the purchase is restricted.

This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.