The following is the related content of project risk control and transfer brought by Zhong Da Consulting for your reference.

In the construction process, from the contractor's point of view, it has the characteristics of long construction period, large investment, and many types of work and processes. Therefore, in the construction, these factors restrict the contractor's future income. If the construction period is long, the unforeseen factors in each period will increase accordingly, and the changes of external and internal factors related to time will affect the timely completion of the construction period; The investment is huge, and if the financing, payment method, interest rate or relevant contract terms change, the cost will increase, thus reducing the contractor's profit; More work, more procedures. Once the construction organization is unreasonable or reworked, and claims occur at the same time, it will greatly affect the progress, cost and quality of the project and damage the interests of the contractor. Therefore, it is of great significance to analyze and control the risk problems in the process of engineering project construction.

1. The project contracting risk faced by the contractor is not only a commercial activity, but also a construction activity. It is bound to be influenced by the natural environment, social environment and related human factors where the project is located. Among them, the responsibilities, rights and obligations established in the relevant contract conditions have great influence on the contractor, which requires the contractor to have comprehensive professional technical knowledge and strong management ability. At present, the competition in the construction market is becoming increasingly fierce, the technical content is constantly improving, the projects tend to be large and complicated, the enterprises tend to be United, and the funds are relatively concentrated, which is particularly unfavorable to small and medium-sized enterprises, making them face more risks and reducing the average profit rate of enterprises. From this perspective, project contracting is a high-risk project construction activity.

Project contracting risk refers to the change degree of project implementation results relative to expected results, that is, the change degree of contractor's expected income. The causes of project contracting risks are caused by many uncertain factors. If the risk factors are not considered in the process of bidding and project implementation, it will increase the actual cost, reduce the profit and even lose money. However, transferring the possible cost of potential risk factors to the cost of bid price will greatly increase the probability of winning the bid. Therefore, in order to obtain the target expected profit, we must correctly consider the project contracting risk.

According to relevant statistics, the contractor's risk expenses account for a relatively low proportion in the bid price, because the contractor has taken active management measures for many risk factors, such as the transfer and sharing of risk responsibilities, insurance and other measures to control the occurrence of risk accidents or reduce risk losses. According to JCEM's questionnaire on the risk distribution and importance of American contractors' projects, compared with the boom period, the actual contracting cost increased by 4%, the profit decreased by 25% and the risk increased by 3 times. If we consider the difference of the actual bid price, the absolute value will increase even more. That is to say, under the condition that the bidding price ratio is basically the same, the risk market period needs to pay more risk expenses than the prosperous market period.

In addition, the percentage of risks borne by the owner and the contractor in the project construction is 33.5% and 36.9% respectively, and the risk borne by * * * is 29.6%. In the risk undertaken by * * *, the owner often tries to pass on the risk loss to the contractor by taking advantage of being the employer. In actual construction, the proportion of risks undertaken by contractors often reaches more than 60%. Therefore, it is extremely important for contractors to correctly analyze, control and manage the project contracting risks if they want to achieve the goal of smooth project implementation and profit. For the contractor, the important risk factors mainly include:

A. procurement of labor, equipment and materials;

B. productivity of labor and equipment;

C. unqualified materials;

D. labor disputes;

E. security;

F. Inflation (lump sum contract);

G. contractor's working ability;

H. negotiation of change orders;

First, the project quality;

J. extension of contract;

K. financial control ability;

The actual number of length items.

The characteristics of these risk factors include:

1) unbalanced or huge cash flow;

2) Special quality or technical requirements;

3) Important legal or contractual requirements;

4) Important or sensitive external environment.

Once the project involves the above characteristics, it needs to carry out risk analysis and related management.

2. Risk Control System and Risk Liquidity When conducting traditional risk control, the contractor will generally divide the control process into several stages according to the continuation of the construction process, analyze the potential risk factors in each stage, and formulate corresponding countermeasures. On the surface, the previous methods also used stage control theory, but they always viewed and analyzed risks from a static perspective. Risk management in different stages lacks the necessary organic connection, and the work, process and risk factors in each stage are not unified for comprehensive consideration. This is a simple solution with strong pertinence, but it lacks flexibility. This method has a certain control effect on common change factors, but the strain effect is not so rapid and effective for abnormal changes in construction. The consequence of non-dynamic management is actually a problem of organization and management procedures, involving risk management system and risk control strategy.

Most of the risks in reality are abnormal and unpredictable risk factors, so many risks can't be effectively controlled by traditional methods. This is mainly due to the contractor's lack of effective risk management system. An effective contractor risk management system requires enterprises to establish a risk management department to supervise, control and make decisions at all stages of construction by using stage management and system planning. This can be illustrated by the phenomenon that occurs when the whip moves.

When the multi-section soft whip vibrates, each section swings laterally, but the overall shape and direction of the whip itself remain unchanged. This is more obvious when there are a large number of joints in exercise, which we call "whiplash effect". Described in the language of economics, a single decision-making problem is staged to avoid risks and improve decision-making efficiency, that is, the whole process can be divided into several interrelated stages according to time, space or artificially, and each stage needs to make decisions, with the goal of making the whole process play its best role. As the optimal strategy of the whole process, it has the property that no matter what the past state and decision are, the remaining decisions must constitute the optimal strategy relative to the state formed by the previous decision. In short, the sub-strategy of an optimal strategy is always optimal. Because the choice of decision in each stage depends on the current state and affects the development of the later process, if different decisions are chosen in each stage, the strategy and effect of the whole process will be different. It can be considered that no matter what the state of the past stage is, the current decision-making activities must take the current state as the decision-making basis to consider the next activities, regardless of the past. In other words, the risk state of the process has shifted from the past to the current risk state. The risks faced have migrated and entered a new risk control cycle, forming a "migration effect" of risks. We can explain it in the form of risk map. There are essential differences between risk diagram and network diagram used in construction. The arrow line of the construction network diagram is the specific work, while the arrow line of the risk diagram is the optional strategic plan and the consequences brought by the corresponding risks.

If a contracting activity is divided into three stages: A, B and C, then each stage has several strategies and corresponding risk consequences. For example, in stage A, there are three kinds of decisions, namely ① ┈ ②, ① ┈ ③ and ① ┈④. When ① ┈ ② strategy is implemented and the corresponding risk result ② is reached, the problem faced by the decision makers, that is, the contractors, is that, on the basis of ②, on ② ┈⑤, ② ┈⑤and ② ⑤ At this time, the benefits have nothing to do with whether ①, ③ and ④ are considered, that is, the risk decision-making has no aftereffect. The transition from ① to ② of the risk state and decision-making formed here is called the migration characteristics of risk. In the past, the commonly used risk control system was linear, only considering the risk of each state and analyzing the possible results, lacking the actual correlation between the risk states. Once the risk becomes a reality, it is easy to be influenced and bound by the work in the past stage, and it is easy to overcorrect, further increasing the risk and thus increasing the cost.

3. Improvement of the contractor's risk control system and corresponding measures The contractor's risk control system is extremely important in project management. Only by solving the system problems can we fundamentally minimize the probability of occurrence of risks or minimize the losses caused by risks. This should mainly start from the following aspects:

(1) Enterprise System Innovation and Establishment of Risk Control Order

The rationality of enterprise management system and organizational form is the basis of risk control, and engineering contracting enterprises must establish flexible and pragmatic institutional forms. Generally speaking, in addition to force majeure, the main reasons for contracting risks are the imperfect system and chaotic work order of contracting enterprises. There are blind spots in management, decisions are not implemented, powers are crossed, work is shirked, responsibilities are unclear, and order is chaotic. Therefore, it is necessary to innovate in the company's organizational form and management system to improve the company's vitality; At the same time, establish a clear and orderly work order, so that decisions can be implemented smoothly and effectively. The applicable organizational form should be based on the matrix project manager system, and the corresponding risk management department should be established, but the management span and management level should not be too much, which should be suitable for the company's development scale. In addition, the internal risk guarantee fund is established to reduce the contractor's operating risk and improve the overall income.

(2) Establish an organizational supervision mechanism with risk departments and risk managers as the main body.

Referring to foreign mature risk control experience, a risk department and a risk manager should be established in the contractor's construction process. Its function is to analyze, control and supervise the potential risks of the project, and formulate corresponding countermeasures to provide decision-making basis for decision makers. The risk manager is directly responsible to the contractor. In addition, the work of the risk manager can be extended to the whole process of the company's operation, not only to the preparation, control and implementation of the bidding quotation of a single project, but also to the phased management around the whole company to grasp the pulse of the construction market. Phased risk management is effective control and dynamic forward-looking management based on corresponding risk decision-making for the three stages of project operation bidding, mid-term implementation, late summary and treatment. It mainly uses the "whip effect" of risk and controls the "liquidity" of risk through feedback dynamic programming. For example, the Project Delivery System (PDS) developed by the Canadian Engineering Department is essentially a management method for organizing and managing complex projects, in which a large number of risk management tools are used to ensure that key details are not ignored, including regularly checking and controlling a large number of activities and details to control and manage risks. As shown in figure 4.

(3) Clear the subject of risk responsibility and strengthen management by objectives.

The key of contract risk management lies in establishing the subject of risk responsibility and related responsibilities, rights and obligations. With clear responsibilities, rights and obligations, the breadth, width and depth of work will be clear at a glance, which is convenient for supervision and management. The first is to set posts and responsibilities, that is, to determine the number of posts and the corresponding tasks and responsibilities, but the determination of posts and responsibilities is flexible and changes accordingly according to the progress or needs of the project. Secondly, use PDCA (plan, do, check and act) and 5W 1H (what, when, where, who, why and how) methods of management ring to manage by objectives. In the P stage, according to the responsibilities, rights and obligations determined above, a standardized table is listed, and the work is planned for 5W 1H, so that the person in charge can make clear the content, nature, method, deadline, emergency strategy, inspectors and who is responsible for the work.

(4) Determine the optimal capital structure

The contractor's capital structure refers to the proportional relationship between liabilities, rights and interests and assets, that is, the corresponding capital forms of people, funds, materials, equipment, machinery and construction technology. Determining the optimal capital structure and using financial leverage and operating leverage are of decisive significance for contractors to obtain the most satisfactory profits. By reducing the labor cost and material cost which account for a large proportion of the project cost, appropriately adjusting the proportion of loan funds, comparing different capital structure schemes and choosing the best one, the organic combination of scale, capital, management level and technical ability can be realized, and the optimal capital efficiency can be achieved. Of course, the capital structure is not static, and it will change with the actual situation in the project implementation, so as to maximize the capital output.

In addition to the above aspects, the contractor should actively seek new ways to avoid risks, and use effective international risk avoidance and management means to reduce the company's operating costs. In addition, the adjustment of the existing contracting market and the development of new markets can not be ignored. The establishment of new markets is generally based on the promotion of new building technologies and new building materials. Therefore, the contractor should make full use of the opportunities brought by new technologies, new materials and new processes to open up new markets and guide demand.

4. Concluding remarks

The contractor's control of engineering risks should be based on enterprise system innovation, and a dynamic and forward-looking decision-making mechanism should be established at the corresponding stage by setting up risk management departments, risk managers and risk guarantee funds. With objective management as the main form and reasonable capital structure, various construction processes, potential risk factors and related details are scientifically managed and controlled to reduce losses caused by risks and improve profitability and capital efficiency. In this way, the contractor can be in an invincible position in the increasingly competitive construction market in the future, and always maintain the vitality of the enterprise in the case of prosperity or decline of the construction industry.

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