Last weekend, the ambassadors of ASEAN in Berlin, the largest international organization in Southeast Asia, visited the German Science and Politics Foundation under the German Chancellery. During the conversation, German analysts asked about China's recent plastic surgery in South China. The ambassadors' reaction surprised German analysts. Most of them prefer to regard Beijing's actions as China's reaction to the United States, or at most, to the alliance between the United States, Japan and South Korea. But at the same time, Southeast Asian countries are constantly upgrading their armaments to curb China's naval expansion in the South China Sea. According to the news from China World Wide Web, the navies of the four core ASEAN countries-Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore-will participate in the upcoming Pacific Rim Hawaii multinational exercise until August 1 day. It is said that the important purpose of this exercise is to launch international anti-submarine military cooperation against China's submarine forces which are cruising more and more widely.
Vietnam's role in the South China Sea is worrying.
It is worth noting that Vietnam, which is currently trying to restore normal relations between the control valve and the United States and its military, is not on the list. Gerhard Will, an expert on Southeast Asia at the German Foundation for Science and Politics, pointed out: "The Vietnamese government is at a loss. This is also the dilemma of the entire Southeast Asian countries. For example, China was invited to attend the so-called Mekong River Summit held by a gift company not long ago, and the fourth meeting of the China-Vietnam Mixed Economy Coordination Committee a few days ago. On these occasions, people have repeatedly stressed that strategic partnerships should be as extensive as possible; At the same time, however, Vietnam should emphasize playing the card of nationalism and keep making statements: saying that this sea area is our sacred territory and declaring the Xisha Islands as a tourism development zone in Vietnam. A week later, guests from China will be received in high standards in turn, and so on.
The relationship between Viet Nam and China is very complicated.
Nationalism has become the main driving force against China's influence.
In fact, the dispute between China and Vietnam over the South China Sea has been escalating. There are nationalist voices in Vietnam, but why not in China? There was a report on the Internet in China about how Viet Nam developed submarine oil in Xisha and Nansha Islands and their adjacent waters, but the Beijing authorities turned a blind eye to it and said nothing.
Gerhard Will made a very similar observation when analyzing the influence of domestic political pressure in Vietnam on Vietnam-China relations: "For example, there is far more than overseas opposition against the leadership politics in Vietnam. Many bloggers in Vietnam accuse the government of betraying Vietnam's territorial waters, so that only private detectives can get political and economic assistance from China and keep their power. Such a voice is no doubt, and it is simply denying the ruling legitimacy of the current leadership. "
Does China's strong economy affect the domestic politics of Southeast Asia?
In other ASEAN countries, because the system is different from Vietnam, there is no problem that the opposition unites various social forces and directly challenges the one-party system. However, in Gerhard Weill's view, in view of China's actions in the South China Sea, other ASEAN countries' social dissatisfaction with China should not be taken lightly: "Whenever you talk to people in Southeast Asia, as long as the conversation lasts for more than 20 minutes or 25 minutes, you will certainly hear the bitter complaints that China goods have washed away our market. People are very angry with China, but there is no room for expression at the official political level, and their anger is getting deeper and deeper. The private detectives you saw in Vietnam are very clear: in this crisis, the Vietnamese government introduced a large-scale government loan plan to revitalize the economy; The folk explanation for this is: You can't do anything without China people's money. " You can even hear this conjecture everywhere: My brother-in-law says that even people who want to enter the Political Bureau of the Central Committee can't decide now without a nod from China. "