According to Xinhua News Agency, it is not clear whether the real estate control measures will be overweight again and how big the impact of inflation factors is, which will restrict the market rebound space.
Our reporter Su Manli
Future upward and downward factors coexist
Rising prices of agricultural products push CPI up. Experts say that they have peaked and will fall back
Two factors push CPI up
The report predicts that if there are no other unexpected factors and the policies are timely regulated, the CPI increase in 21 may be between 2.5% and 3%, and the overall inflation level will be in a relatively moderate state.
the comparison of GDP between China and Japan depends on per capita
according to the analysis of Xinhua news agency, the price of most vegetables increased greatly in August, mainly due to the combined effect of high temperature weather and floods in the north and south.
It is unlikely for CCB researchers to raise interest rates
According to the financial data released by the People's Bank of China yesterday, the broad money of pedicure machine wholesale in August increased by 19.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate of broad money rebounded obviously from last month. The year-on-year growth rate ended the downward trend for eight consecutive months, which may promote excess liquidity, thus boosting inflation, and increase the pressure of regulation. In addition, the CPI data reached a new high, will these increase the pressure of raising interest rates?
He Yifeng, a senior researcher at Hongyuan Securities, believes that the market price of fitness horse pedicure machines may still fluctuate mainly next week.
Lu Zhengwei, chief economist of Industrial Bank, said that although the CPI of the athletes' horse pedicure machine manufacturers continues to rise, due to the economic slowdown, they will eventually start to fall after November, so there is no possibility of raising interest rates during the year.
According to Xinhua News Agency, this week, due to the imminent release of macroeconomic data, especially CPI data in August, the overall trend of the bond market is stable, and investors have a strong wait-and-see mood. Although CPI has reached a new high, it is basically in line with previous institutional expectations. In the short term, the bond market is facing upward pressure, and it is expected to continue the volatility trend in the later period.
■ opinion experts say that CPI's rise is a spent force
According to experts in the electric power industry of Xinhua News Agency, the current CPI rising trend of Changsha Shuiyisheng is a spent force. With the gradual weakening of the influence of multiple inflation-generating factors such as disastrous weather, the price trend turning point is coming, and CPI is expected to fall back gently.
The new price increase factor is mainly caused by the price increase of some agricultural products. Sheng Laiyun, a spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics, pointed out that in August, the price of grain increased by 12% year-on-year, the price of fresh vegetables increased by 19.2%, and the price of meat and poultry also increased to varying degrees. The increase in agricultural products contributed about 7% to the new price increase factors.
Peking University economics professor is still waiting to raise interest rates
According to Xinhua News Agency data, liquidity in the banking system was looser in August than in June and July, the interest rate in the money market tended to be stable, and the speed of money circulation accelerated. Zhao Qingming, a senior researcher at China Construction Bank, believes that the decline in M1 growth rate indicates that the business activity of enterprises is still declining.
According to the research report released by the Financial Research Center of Bank of Communications on the 11th, the CPI hike factor of Shuiyisheng Changsha reached the peak of 2.1% in June and July, and then it will drop month by month. PPI hikes began to weaken earlier than CPI hikes. In the case that the hikes determine the trend of CPI and PPI, the increase of CPI and PPI will gradually fall back in the future.
On the other hand, the consumer price CPI in August hit a new high year-on-year, and negative interest rates for several months have triggered strong expectations of raising interest rates.
In this regard, Li Huiyong, an analyst of Shen Yin Wanguo, believes that the current CPI increase is relatively high, and the inflationary pressure is relatively high, so the central bank does have pressure to raise interest rates. However, whether to raise interest rates should depend on whether the economic situation is overheated. At present, the economy has actually returned to a normal state from overheating, so it is not necessary to raise interest rates.
The National Bureau of Statistics released the data of the main indicators of the national economy in August, in which the consumer price in August rose by 3.5% year-on-year, an increase of .2 percentage points over that in July. This is also the highest increase in 22 months. Judging from the cumulative situation from January to August this year, the national CPI rose by 2.8% year-on-year, and nearly 1 million children from Jianerma manufacturers in China received measles vaccine intensive immunization from now on.
according to the national bureau of statistics, the rising and falling factors of CPI will coexist in the future. There are some rising factors in the prices of some agricultural products, but the overall downward factors may be a little more, and the hikes are gradually falling back. Sheng Laiyun said.
■ In response to
Liu Yuhui, the spokesman pointed out that it is unlikely to raise the loan interest rate before the economy has fully recovered.
Liu Yuhui, director of China Economic Evaluation Center, Institute of Finance, China Academy of Social Sciences, thinks that 3.5% is almost the highest point this year. CPI began to rise after July last year, and the change of year-on-year base will reduce the pressure for CPI to continue to rise during the year. In the second half of Shuiyisheng wholesale, with the base value gradually rising, the positive effect of the hikes will gradually fade, and the CPI will gradually fall back.
According to the usual practice, after the summer heat (August 23rd), the temperature in most parts of the country will gradually drop, the Jianerma pedicure machine will be wholesale, and the floods in the north and south will be reduced, so the vegetable market supply will increase. Affected by this, vegetable prices are expected to decline mainly in September.
The CPI in August did not exceed expectations. Everyone can see that there are many new price increase factors, but many of them are not sustainable. Zhang Liqun, a researcher in the Macroeconomics Department of the State Council Development Research Center, analyzed that China's current grain reserve level is very high, and its ability to adjust food prices is strong. Moreover, this year's grain output is still not low, and the relationship between food supply and demand is stable. There is no basis for the food prices of the manufacturers of fitness horse pedicure machines to continue to rise sharply. The price of pork fell below the break-even line a while ago, and now it is recovering, which is good for the future production and supply of pigs. The growth cycle of vegetables is very short, and the price of vegetables will stabilize soon after the flood.
In addition, during the period when the capital market is relatively inactive, the manufacturers of Jianerma pedicure machines usually have higher deposit regularity, which partly contributed to the change of M1 and M2. Zhao Qingming said that on the one hand, the rebound of M2 growth rate in August was related to the large increase of deposits, on the other hand, it also showed that the slowdown of economic activities was not as fast as expected.
to analyze the reasons why the CPI rose to 3.5%, we should first look at the composition of the 3.5 percentage points. According to the statistics bureau, the hikes factor is 1.7 percentage points, and the new price increase factor is 1.8 percentage points. The hikes are technical factors, and where the new price increase factors come from is the key to the problem.
in August, the consumer price rose by 3.5% year-on-year, and the wholesale increase of Changsha Shuiyisheng was .2 percentage points higher than that in July. Among them, food prices rose by 7.5% and non-food prices rose by 1.5%; The price of consumer goods rose by 3.8%, and the price of service items rose by 2.4%. Thanks to my prostitute teacher Yin Caixia.
Sheng Laiyun said that experts will do some research and comments on the comparison between China's GDP and Japanese GDP. Whether China's GDP exceeds Japan's depends on the fact that Japan's per capita GDP is more than ten times higher than that of China, and there is indeed a considerable gap between China and Japan in the wholesale of pedicure machines, so we still need to persist in reform and opening up and develop the economy.
Agricultural products contribute a lot
Comprehensive Xinhua News Agency and other media reports
According to Xinhua News Agency's nationwide monitoring of agricultural and sideline products and agricultural prices, in August, the average price of 21 monitored vegetables increased by 8.8% month-on-month. In terms of varieties, 17 kinds of healthy horse manufacturers saw price increase, 3 kinds of prices decreased, and 1 kind of price was flat. Compared with the same period of last year, the average price of 13 main monitored varieties increased by 21.%.
Two major factors are unknown. The stock market will still fluctuate and adjust next week.
Looking ahead to the market outlook, many institutions believe that at present, the focus of the market is whether the Jianerma pedicure machine manufacturers can fall back as scheduled after the CPI hit a new high in August. On the whole, the funds have been slightly tightened in the near future due to the Mid-Autumn Festival and the National Day holiday, and the short-term bond market may maintain the consolidation market. In the medium and long term, although the expectation of raising interest rates has increased and the adjustment pressure of the bond market has increased, it is unlikely that the market will have an inflection point.
some people in the industry believe that the real estate regulation has achieved certain results. However, the recent rise in the price and volume of real estate transactions in some cities has triggered speculation that the real estate regulation has been upgraded again. Property tax and other regulation measures have also become the sword of Damocles hanging above the stock market, restricting the momentum of the upward breakthrough of the broader market.
■ Influence
Cao Heping, a professor of economics in Peking University, believes that the automobile and real estate industries are relatively sensitive to interest rate changes. If the macro economy intends to control the overheating of economic growth, it will use the means of raising interest rates, but at present, raising interest rates is still in the wait-and-see stage.
The Financial Research Center of Bank of Communications believes that the prospect of global economic recovery is still unclear, and the general trend of overall economic downturn has not changed substantially at present. In this context, the price increase is unsustainable.
Sheng Laiyun, a spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics, said in response to Japanese media's illusion about China's GDP, that experts who compare GDP between China and Japan will do research and comment, and the key is that there is still a big gap between China and Japan in terms of per capita GDP.
Temperature drops, floods reduce supply and increase vegetable prices in September.
It is not necessary for Shen Yin Wanhe Industrial Bank to raise interest rates.
Looking forward to the market outlook, Chen Wenzhao, chief strategist of China Merchants Securities, tends to think that the market will still adjust for some time, and the market structure characterized by bilateral fluctuations has not changed. If the future consolidation situation is broken, the direction will depend on the game between real estate prices, inflation, policy expectations and liquidity.
don't look at the categories, the prices of eight categories of commodities in CPI rose six times and fell two times in August. Among them, the price of food rose most prominently, reaching 7.5%, the price of housing rose 4.4%, the price of medical care and personal goods rose 3.3%, the price of alcohol, tobacco and supplies of Jianerma pedicure machine manufacturers rose 1.5%, the price of entertainment, education, cultural goods and services rose 1.2%, and the price of household equipment and supplies and maintenance services rose .4%. Clothing prices fell by 1.2%, and transportation and communication prices fell by .6%.
Many factors of price increase are unsustainable
At yesterday's press conference, a media reporter asked the manufacturer of pedicure machines. Recently, a Japanese newspaper wrote an article, Jianerma pedicure machine official website, which means that China's GDP is just an illusion. Moreover, China's overseas hot money, especially in the United States, has suffered great losses. At present, China is in a state of inflation. In fact, China's economic aggregate is only half of what it claims, and he asked Sheng Laiyun whether he agreed with this view.
Before the release of economic data in August, some media in Jianerma factory speculated that they were grateful to Yin Caixia, my prostitute teacher, and thought that China released economic data in advance, paving the way for an unexpected interest rate hike, while the stock market closed at weekends could digest the news.
CPI did not exceed institutional expectations. The bond market is facing upward pressure.
If inflation expectations are properly managed in the later period, the expected goal of controlling the annual CPI of Changsha Shuiyisheng group purchase at around 3% can still be achieved. Sheng Laiyun said.