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Tao Bo's Tangle Series-Central Backward and Consolidation Backward C#07
Trend deviation: no trend, no deviation.

The current strength of the market, that is, the strength generated by the current transaction (the strength of buying up and the strength of selling down) also constitutes a resultant force. The resultant forces are one after another in chronological order. The former is the current resultant force formed by existing market trends, while the latter is the force generated by current transactions. Studying the relationship between these two forces constitutes another angle of market research, which is another process of interpretation. Another explanation can be given from the perspective of pure trend center.

In fact, from the perspective of the trend center, consolidation and divergence are essentially the same, but the strength, level and position of the trend center are different. The operation around the trend center is actually that simple. Of course, without entanglement theory, it is impossible to have such an accurate analysis.

First, the meaning of divergence

Definition of deviation: in a certain level trend, the trend intensity after the third trading point that forms the last hub of the level is weaker than the sub-level connection trend before the hub.

Tangled trend: the area formed by the intersection of short-term moving average and long-term moving average (e.g. 5-day line 10-day line) after the previous "kiss" ends and the next "kiss" begins. In the two trends in the same direction, when the strength of the trend is weaker than the last trend, a "deviation" is formed.

For example, in the trend of a+A+b+B+c, the general meaning of divergence is that the strength of section C is less than that of section B, as shown in figure-1.

The so-called top deviation is the last trend center, and the intensity of upward departure is weaker than that of downward departure. One feature of the trend center is that it has the same pull-back effect on leaving the rising or falling trend. Since going up is weaker than going down, and going down can pull back the trend center, then going up can certainly pull back the trend center.

(Pay attention to compare the macd green column area corresponding to the basic decline range in the above figure, forming a deviation. )

Second, the level of the backswing.

The degree of disagreement depends on which periodic table MACD pulls back to the 0 axis. How to determine the level of rebound in the specific trend is a puzzling problem for many people. In particular, the problem of "treachery" appears more frequently, and some people have misunderstood the binding theory. Backwardness is the resultant force of the market, which is not controlled by the main force, nor is it an empirical value. Backwardness is the objective expression of the change of market resultant force.

1. Observe whether MACD returns to the 0 axis. (macd is generated by the 0-axis retracement trend, and the ups and downs are normal. )

2. Observe whether there is a gap between the yellow line and the white line of MACD after the MACD is pulled back to the 0 axis.

3. When there is a gap between the yellow line and the white line, enter the slip-back section, and then open the sub-level diagram to observe whether the slip-back in the slip-back section is established.

4. The fall of the falling section can refer to the absolute value of MACD red-green column area.

Meet the above four conditions, then the level of backward sliding is established.

Third, standard deviation (trend deviation)

? Definition of standard deviation: When a+A+b+B+c deviates, a+A+b+B+c is the trend first. And a trend means that A and B are the same level of hubs, and A, B and C are secondary shocks around A and B respectively. The center of this megatrend will pull the yellow and white lines of MACD (that is, DIF and DEA) back to the vicinity of the 0 axis. When the trend of section C is completed, the corresponding MACD column area (looking up at the red column and looking down at the green column) is smaller than the corresponding area of section B, which constitutes the standard post-tensioning.

C must be secondary, that is to say, C contains at least the third trading point of B, otherwise it can be regarded as a small-level fluctuation of B hub, which can be completely handled by consolidation. If a+A+b+B+c is rising, C must hit a new high; When A+A+b+B+c falls, C will inevitably hit a new low. Otherwise, even if C contains the third kind of trading points of B, we can judge the secondary shocks around B by sorting out and diverging. Through the internal analysis of C, because C contains the third trading point of B, C contains at least two sub-hubs, otherwise the condition that the sub-hubs will not return to the hubs after the sub-hubs leave cannot be met. It is the most standard and common situation that the two centers form a sub-level trend. In this case, we can continue to analyze the sub-trend in the form of a+A+b+B+c to determine the divergence of the sub-trend in the internal structure of C, and form a state similar to interval set, so that we can locate the subsequent divergence more accurately.

Standard deviation is also called trend deviation in entanglement theory. This title is relative to merger deviation, which reveals the judgment method of standard deviation-trend from another angle. Trend, at least two centers at the same level. For deviation, it will certainly not happen after the first center, but at least it will happen after the second center. For that extended trend, it is very likely that there will be a deviation after the 100 hub.

The general situation of trend deviation: deviation occurs after the second hub, accounting for the vast majority, especially at the level above the daily line, almost above 90%. Therefore, if the second center is above the daily line, we should pay close attention to the emergence of deviation. At a small level, such as 1 minute, this ratio is smaller, but it is also the majority. It is quite rare that divergence will occur after 4 or 5 centers.

Fourth, integration and divergence.

Definition of consolidation deviation: If the first center deviates, it is not a real deviation, but a consolidation deviation. Its real technical significance is actually an attempt to leave the center, but it is prevented from returning to the center because of its limited strength. The difference between consolidation and trend has been said before, so I won't go into details.

Generally speaking, small-scale consolidation is of little significance, and it must be combined with positions. If it is high, the risk is greater, and it is often the activity of licking blood. But if it is low, the meaning is different, because the second and third types of buying points are mostly composed of consolidation and deviation, while the first type of buying points are mostly composed of trend deviation. Generally speaking, the second and third types of buying points have three trends, and the third paragraph often breaks through the limit position of the first paragraph, thus forming a consolidation deviation. Note that the first and third paragraphs are regarded as a comparison between two trend types, which is somewhat different from the situation in trend deviation. Whether these two trend types are necessarily trends is not a big problem, and the two consolidation can also be compared in the consolidation deviation.

Only a new high or a new low can lead to deviation or consolidation deviation. In fact, if there is no new high, we can look at it in the way of central shock, that is to say, we can not reach the intensity of the last shock, and we can also use MACD to assist, but it is not the same thing as deviation, and we can judge it by referring to the intensity of central shock.

Five, "back back" to solve doubts

Backstepping is hierarchical. A step back of 1 min will not create a weekly-level big top in most cases, unless there is a step back on the daily line. However, there must be a reversal after the deviation, until a new sub-level trading point reappears. It can be said that any reversal must contain a certain degree of deviation. However, reversal does not mean forever. For example, the upward retracement of the daily line creates a selling point, and the downward retracement after the callback creates a buying point in 5 minutes or 30 minutes, and then it can rise again or even hit a new high. This is normal. If there is a corresponding relationship between the inflection point and the pullback, then the market is too boring and rigid. The possibility of a big inflection point after this small-scale pullback gradually accumulates makes the market full of vitality.

This is what many people say: "back to back" is completely a natural phenomenon in the market. Backwardness is the resultant force of the market. Have you ever found the same leaf in nature? Therefore, the ever-changing retrogression trend is inevitable. Entanglement theory not only gives a scientific and operational definition of this natural phenomenon in the market, but also points out the operation method.

(1) The slip level is less than the current trend level.

The situation that "the deviation level is less than the current trend level" means that the so-called small-scale transition leads to a large-scale transition.

Small deviation theory-big inflection point theorem: the necessary condition for small deviation to trigger a big downward trend is that the third selling point appears in the last sub-level center of this level trend; The necessary condition for the low callback to trigger the high upward trend is that the third buying point appears in the last sub-level hub of this level trend.

Note that in this case, there are only necessary conditions, but not sufficient conditions, that is to say, there can be no sufficient judgment. Once something happens, it will inevitably lead to a large-scale turning point. After the small-scale top deviation, the third selling point appears in the last sub-level hub, which does not necessarily lead to a large-scale turning point.

Obviously, this theorem is a little weaker than the case that the level of deviation is equal to the current trend level, and it will inevitably return to the last center of this level, but this is normal, because this situation is rare, after all, it is much more complicated. So in practice, there must be more complicated programs to deal with this situation.

For the case that the backswing level is lower than the current trend level, if the investor operates at the 30-minute level, then the 5-minute callback must be within his tolerance, otherwise the operation level can be adjusted to 5 minutes. Then, for the 30-minute trend type, the top deviation less than 30 minutes will inevitably lead to a downward trend of at least 5 minutes. If this downward trend does not return to the high point of the 5-minute downward trend type that constitutes the third kind of buying point in the last 30 minutes, then there is no need to pay attention to this downward trend, because the trend is within the acceptable range.

Of course, under the strongest trend, this five-minute downward trend will not even touch the last five-minute center of the five-minute upward trend type, including the last 30-minute center, let alone be necessary. If the downward 5-minute trend falls below the high point of the 5-minute trend type, which constitutes the third buying point of the last 30 minutes, then any upward retracement must leave first.

The above is the handling method of Man Cang operation. If there are many chips, then when the last 5-minute hub and the last 30-minute hub appear the third selling point of the 5-minute upward trend type, they must be partially sold first, and then cleared when the situation mentioned in the previous paragraph occurs. Of course, if the situation mentioned in the previous paragraph does not happen, it can be made up and the difference can be made.

Some people may ask, 1 minute retracement, why not go out? This is related to your assumed level of operation, and the trend is unpredictable. This is not reliable. Because there is no forecast, it cannot be assumed that any top pullback of 1 min will inevitably lead to a major turning point. In fact, this situation is not common. You can't operate for 30 minutes, but when you see 1, if your capital and operating accuracy can be operated according to 1 minute, it is not necessary to operate according to 30 minutes, but according to 1 minute. The operating procedure is the same as pressing for 30 minutes, but the corresponding level is different.

Of course, for a certain amount of funds, even if you operate for 30 minutes, you can drop some chips when you see the top deviation of 1 minute, and then decide whether to make up the position or continue to sell according to the callback trend. Such an operation is only feasible for a certain amount of funds, because it is impossible to sell all the funds at any level. As for the bottom situation, the above can be reversed.

(2) The slip level is equal to the current trend level.

For "the level of retracement is equal to the current trend level", if you happen to be at the level of operation, just sell it all at the top of retracement. The same is true of buying. For example, on the 5F chart, a 5F trend, after the second 5F hub, the trend of 1F level leaves and comes back to form three selling, and the trend of 1F continues to form another 1F hub, then this trend of 1F is also perfect. At this time, the reverse sliding section of the 5F level is also perfect, and the MACD is pulled back to the 0 axis by the second 5F hub. On the 5F MACD chart, the yellow and white line of the falling segment is higher than the yellow and white line of the secondary low point behind the first 5F center. This is the standard deviation of this level 5F.

(c) The difference is greater than the current trend.

For the case that the deviation level is greater than the current trend, it is usually a large level. At this time, there must be a small-scale retreat at the same time, which is an extremely important intervention point.

(4) buying and selling points and deviation from macd:

First, go backwards.

If there is no trend, there will be no deviation or turning point. The upward trend and downward trend are continuous, and deviation or inflection point will come. The trend has at least two centers, but there is no need for consolidation.

Without consolidation, there will be no retrogression, that is, a turning point In the final analysis, even in the trend of unilateral rise and fall, the consolidation and fall of different sizes are unchanged. Just look at the chart below 1 minute and it will be clear at a glance.

So it can be said that as long as the market opens, there will always be consolidation and divergence in the ups and downs. It's just different in size, level and operability. So what we usually call consolidation and divergence are naturally those that reach the operational level.

The key question is what level of chart you stand on. For example, annual line, weekly line, daily line, 30 minutes, 5 minutes, 1 minute or even below 1 minute, each level is macro and micro. What you see when you stand on one level diagram is not what you see on another level diagram.

1, don't participate in consolidation deviation (unless it is above the weekly level), and there is no trading point in consolidation. (Especially for the sideways consolidation of the box, if it is a large-scale downward trend, don't participate in it at a small level (the macd yellow and white line in the sideways returns to the sideways near the zero axis or the sideways near the zero axis to complete a consolidation).

2. The sign of the end of consolidation is not deviation, but the third trading point; The sign of the end of the trend is deviation (in fact, this is also relative). As shown in the figure below.

The first buying point: bottom inversion (backward point) (formed under macd0 axis)

The second type of buying point: confirmation of retracement after reversal (hierarchical retracement of the first type of buying and selling point) (retracement after macd yellow-white line breaks through axis 0)

The third buying point: exit consolidation (central destruction point). The third kind of buying point must wait until the second level deviation or double retracement confirmation.

3. Trend deviation must occur after at least the second hub. If it happens after the first hub, it is just a consolidation deviation.

4. Backward is the contrast between the two trends. (On the same level chart, the trend and sequence in the same direction) Only when there are new highs and new lows can there be deviation or consolidation deviation. If there is no new high or new low, look at it in the way of central shock.

5. The fall of the minor level leads to the turning point of the major level: a+A+b+B+c in 30 minutes. If c is a callback of 1 minute, it will eventually lead to a fall back to b, which may lead to a big level.

6. There are two situations: A, forming a new hub, and B, changing from a small level to a large level.

7. 1 min, 5-min backstroke hurdle and area analysis. Note that the area of MACD column does not need to come out completely. In general, when the elongation speed of the column slows down, multiply the area that has appeared by 2, which can be regarded as the area of the section. Therefore, in practice, there is no need to look for the deviation after falling back. In the final stage of rising or falling, you can generally throw it to the highest price and buy it near the lowest price.

8. Trend retrogression must consist of two or more consolidations. (The yellow-white line pulls back to the 0-axis from the low point, which is consolidation) (At the same time, it may accompany the golden fork to break through the gold pressure line of the yellow-white line)

9. At the end of the rapid pull-up, the deviation of 1 minute is enough to trigger a plunge.

Second, the center

Hub: at least three consecutive sub-level trend types (three sub-levels and three strokes of this level)

1, center and consolidation are not the same concept, but consolidation and trend are the same concept.

2. The three sub-levels form a hub, and the extension is to continue to have this level, up to five. By the 9th, it will be a hub at a larger level, not an extension.

3. The completion of the hub is also the emergence of the third type of trading point.

4. Down: Once there is a deviation, there will be a deviation and a higher level of buying point will appear.

Third, the trading point strategy

1. At the end of the 30-minute downtrend, buy at the end of 5 minutes. If you continue to fall or enter consolidation for 30 minutes, you will come out (stop loss); The third selling point is to use 30 minutes from top to bottom as a selling signal.

Memory and memory are a big problem in entanglement theory. This problem has been solved, and 95% of the problems have been solved.

2, 1 minute, usually about 2 hours to complete; 5-minute backtracking, usually completed in one day, suitable for semi-warehouse, 30-minute backtracking, usually one or two weeks, it is normal for the profit to be above 10%.

3. Leaving the hub must be a sub-level, and returning to the test is also a sub-level. (But the third type of trading point may evolve into a bigger level of shock.

4. The definition of the second kind of buying point is very clear, that is, for example, the first kind of buying point in 30 minutes, the level of 5 minutes, and the low point cannot be broken in 5 minutes, that is the second kind of buying point.

5. Judging the buying and selling points comes from different levels.

6. Once there is an internal deviation, and the position at that time has not reached a new high or is contrary to the previous trend, it must be the second selling point.

7. Not selling selling points is the biggest mistake, which is more serious than not buying some points.

8. Consolidation deviation is not necessarily worse than deviation. For example, the consolidation deviation of the second or third category of buying points will not be too bad. We must prevent consolidation and divergence from becoming the third kind of trading points, and we must cooperate with large-scale comprehensive look. For example, a 30-minute decline has just begun to break, and the probability of a 5-minute consolidation deviation turning into a third selling point is 99%. Therefore, there is generally no need to participate in this merger. If 30 minutes has just started to rise, 5 minutes of downward consolidation is a good buying point.

Fourth, the MACD trend runs in reverse:

It is only used to create a new high/new low, and there is no new high/new low, which means that the strength is very weak and the operation is of little significance.

The zero axis of MACD is used to distinguish bull market from bear market. Obviously, above the zero axis is bull market, and vice versa. Avoid all markets or stocks with MACD yellow line and white line below zero axis, which is the most basic anti-wolf technology. However, the first kind of buying points are all generated below the zero axis. If your technology is not hard enough, wait for the MACD to make a strong callback after leaving the zero axis for the first time, and then buy it after callback near the zero axis. This is usually the second buying point, but this method is not an accurate method, because the yellow line and the white line can choose to go back below the zero axis to find the bottom again. The MACD yellow-white line goes up to the zero axis for the first time. There is no retracement problem at this level, but it is also a secondary matter. When MACD is used to assist in judging slippage, there must be at least one obvious process of pulling back to zero axis. Pulling back to the zero axis is obviously not an accurate concept, and the action of pulling back to the zero axis should generally not fall below. However, drawing back the zero axis can also break the zero axis, but not too deep, generally referring to the vicinity of the zero axis. The inaccurate usage of MACD is that when the yellow-white line leaves again after pulling back to the zero axis, it can be regarded as a slip-back segment, which needs interval nesting method to locate it. If the red and green columns have strong elongation and limited callback on the small-scale map, they are used for short-term play at most.

To judge divergence, MACD column depends on the area, not the shortening, but also on whether the yellow line and white line draw back to the zero axis. Note that if the MACD is pulled back twice below the zero axis, it will not get up, and it will definitely fall again. Generally, the second round of this double round trip constitutes the first center in the decline, especially after falling below the previous center, which actually constitutes a standard minimum level of the third kind of selling point. Rising, the other way around. Note that the area of MACD column does not need to come out completely. In general, when the elongation speed of the column slows down, multiply the area that has appeared by 2, which can be regarded as the area of the section. Therefore, in practice, there is no need to look for the deviation after falling back. In the final stage of rising or falling, you can generally throw it to the highest price and buy it near the lowest price.

In addition, it should be noted that the key to MACD-assisted judgment is not MACD, but the decomposition of trends, and it is the key to distinguish the relationship between consolidation and trends at different levels. MACD returns to the zero axis from a very low position, and then the double-loop test is a typical startup form. Some people will never understand that the decomposition of trend types is fundamental, and MACD is only an aid. Otherwise, what is the purpose of studying trend types? It's best to look directly at MACD. Unfortunately, just focusing on MACD is ineffective. MACD is just an assistant. The key is to find the center and the trend of comparison before and after. It's not that MACD is behind. If so, you can learn MACD directly. What else can you do?

No trend, no deviation, but this is the most standard situation. In 90% of cases, there are of course exceptions. It is also possible that some powerful stocks may not return to the zero axis at all in the first center, because MACD is only an aid after all. If they are all accurate, it is best to use MACD directly. MACD is MACD, which has nothing to do with quantity. If the B segment is not drawn near the 0-axis, the condition is completely unsatisfied, otherwise any three segments can be judged by MACD. What's wrong with this? You must meet the conditions first.

The logical relationship of judging deviation: trend-level-trend-trend comparison-deviation-judging deviation with the help of moving average or MACD, boll and the intersection of heaven and earth, so make the front clear first and don't get stuck in some plates. If you understand the front, you will naturally understand the back. Can't you judge deviation without moving average and MACD? Obviously not. That's just an aid.

For example, generally speaking, the rise of a standard two centers will show such a pattern on MACD, that is, in the first paragraph, the yellow and white line of MACD will be put on from below the 0 axis and stay above the 0 axis, forming the corresponding first center, forming the second buying point at the same time, and then breaking through the center, the yellow and white line of MACD will also be pulled up quickly, often the strongest one, and all trends will be extended. The so-called exponential passivation around MACD often appears in this section, which generally ends with secondary divergence and then enters the formation process of the second center. At the same time, the yellow and white lines of MACD will gradually return to the vicinity of the 0 axis. Finally, they will continue to break through the second center, and the yellow and white lines and columns of MACD will repeat the previous process again, but this time, the yellow and white lines cannot reach new heights. Or whether the area or elongation height of the column can break through a new high, the total area of the macd red column is obviously smaller than the total area of the last macd rise, so there is a deviation, ending the rising process of the two centers.

It must be noted that the center formed by the consolidation of MACD around axis 0 and the withdrawal of axis 0 is not necessarily the center of the corresponding level, but at least it is the center of this level. For example, the 0-axis consolidation and callback of the daily MACD at least constitute the center of the daily line, but it can also constitute the center of the weekly line, which means that the daily line has three trends.

The following experience can be used to judge the slip back with macd:

1, using macd column height (e.g., the red column shortens and the stock price is at a new high), area, yellow and white line and zero axis, and combining with the trend line to judge (top deviation, bottom deviation) (no trend, no deviation) (comparison is compared with the previous origin). )

2. When the DIF white line effectively stands firm or falls below the 0 axis, it is the long-short dividing line (pay attention to the level division).

3. Strong finishing: DIF is not valid below axis 0 (three days)

4. The deviation of 4.MACD red and green columns does not necessarily reflect the deviation between certain horizontal trends.

5. The premise of judging the deviation from MACD is that paragraphs A, B and C are in a general trend (there is no trend or deviation), in which there is a center before A and B is another center of this general trend. This center will generally pull the yellow and white lines of MACD (that is, DIF and DEA) back to the vicinity of the 0 axis. When the trend of section C is completed, the corresponding MACD column area (looking up at the red column and looking down at the green column) is smaller than the corresponding area of section A, which constitutes the standard post-tensioning.

6. Use MACD to judge the consolidation deviation in consolidation, then it depends on the next level. 5 minutes, just watch 1 minute.

7. Generally speaking, the yellow and white lines are the most important, and the sum of column areas is generally important in complex trends.

Verb (short for verb)? Level (Backstepping only makes sense at a specific level)

1, intensity: the area formed by the intersection of the average line, the slope of the trend line and the MACD area, and the central height is highly contrasted;

2. Grade: Similarly, in addition to typing, pens and paragraphs, there are also areas and time periods.

3. Time and space, kinetic energy and potential energy.

4. Triangle usually appears in the last adjustment of the trend. Therefore, after the triangle appears, the follow-up trend should always be careful.

5. Looking for a major turning point: The turning point of a major level can be determined by the step-by-step contraction range of backward segments (interval sets) of different levels. In other words, at the turning point of a major level, first find its reverse sliding section, then find the reverse sliding section corresponding to the reverse sliding section in the sub-level diagram, and repeat this process until the lowest level, and the corresponding turning point is within the range determined by the reverse sliding section of this level.

In short, there is no trend, no deviation.