Why does Tesla's share price have such a far-reaching impact on the share prices of domestic listed companies? There are three reasons:
China's new energy automobile parts system is too fragile.
In the past few decades, China's core technology in the traditional automobile field has lagged behind seriously, forcing the government to build a new track to overtake the automobile industry in corners, and this new track is a new energy source. With the key support of top-level industrial design and policies, batches of high-quality new energy industries have been born in China market, and the most typical example is Contemporary Amp Technology Co., Ltd., a power battery manufacturer.
20 13 Up to now, Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. has become the battery supplier of Yutong, a leading bus company in China, and with the profits gained in the subsidy era, it has invested desperately in research and development, gradually entered the supply chain of global automobile giants such as BMW, Volkswagen and Daimler, and developed rapidly under the circumstance of being surrounded by foreign powers (Panasonic and LG), and PK the first echelon in the world by itself.
Moreover, in the resource market upstream of the new energy industry chain, we have formed a metal resource supply chain led by Tianqi Lithium, Huayou Cobalt and Luoyang Molybdenum. Three-power system represented by Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. in the middle reaches; Downstream vehicle production and sales include traditional manufacturers such as BYD and Chery, as well as new forces such as Weilai and Weimar. In the automotive aftermarket, there are also many high-quality enterprises in the fields of charging pile manufacturing and operation and battery recycling.
It can be said that China has the most complete new energy industry chain and the best cost control in the world.
However, in the downstream, domestic automakers did not really open the new energy market and lost the protection of policies. Last year, the sales of new energy vehicles ended with a decline of 1.3 million vehicles and 17.4%. This has brought great trouble to the whole industrial chain-overcapacity.
Take the core industry power battery as an example. In 20 19, the total installed capacity of power batteries for new energy vehicles in China was 62.2GWh, up only 9.3% year-on-year. According to the previous plan, by 2020, China will realize the sales of 2 million new energy vehicles and nearly 80GWh of power batteries, and most manufacturers have already experienced overcapacity.
At the same time, the installed capacity of four domestic 10 power battery enterprises decreased year-on-year, among which BYD ranked second and Li Shen ranked fifth. The other four companies are basically the same, and the only contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. with substantial growth is mainly due to the expansion of the circle of friends of foreign car companies. Correspondingly, Japanese and Korean manufacturers Panasonic Battery, LG Chem, Samsung and SKI have all made great growth.
What is more serious is the upstream raw material enterprises. Every time a downstream manufacturer sells an electric vehicle less, or the market changes slightly, it will enlarge the lithium-cobalt industry and directly affect the price and performance fluctuation of raw materials. Tianqi lithium industry's 2065438+2009 financial report shows a loss of 2.6 billion-3.8 billion yuan. Although part of the reason is the failure of its overseas mergers and acquisitions, the cyclical fluctuation of the new energy industry has a greater impact on it. And Luoyang molybdenum industry. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to shareholders in 20 19 will also decrease by 56.86% to 63.33% compared with the same period of last year. The main reason is that the global market price of cobalt products has dropped sharply, while the sales volume in China market has not increased.
In addition, the overall maturity of China's new energy core industries, such as batteries, electric drives and electronic control systems, is still low, mainly reflected in industry experience, technical strength and system management capabilities.
For example, the average establishment time of the top ten domestic electric drive brands in 20 19 years is only 14 years, while the traditional automobile engine management system enterprises such as Bosch, Denso, Delphi and Mainland China have a history of 100 years, which not only means that they have rich management experience and technical support, but more importantly, they have a strong circle of friends.
Including Volkswagen, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Bosch, Continental and Denso are their preferred and fixed partners. Most of the three domestic power system suppliers have been established for a short time and lack influence, so it is difficult to enter the global new energy supply chain system. The main attack on the China market is not only risky, but also easily influenced by the policy environment, and the power battery is the best example.
Tesla, the catfish in the pond
After analyzing the current situation of the new energy supply chain system, it is actually similar to the past mobile phone industry. To sum up, it is a word-big but not strong. The arrival of Tesla is like the apple of that year, making a catfish in a pond.
At present, most of Tesla's core suppliers are from the United States, Europe and Japan, and only a few suppliers are from China. With the domestic production of Tesla, it is the general trend to speed up local procurement in order to reduce costs and improve production capacity, which will inevitably stimulate the productivity vitality of the new energy supply chain system.
This is traceable, on the one hand, it is market demand. Although the overall new energy market showed a downward trend last year, it was mainly concentrated in the low-end markets of A00 and A0, and high-end new energy products such as B-class cars and SUVs showed an upward trend. This is for the Tesla model with a price of 300,000. 3 is a great advantage.
There is demand and supply. Last year, Tesla registered more than 42,700 vehicles in China, and the first-phase production capacity of Shanghai Tesla Super Factory reached 6.5438+0.5 million vehicles/year. Musk also said that China would be built? Models? 3 the largest market, the model is expected by the end of this year? Y will also be put into production.
According to media reports, Tesla expects to add more than 4,000 super charging piles in Chinese mainland in 2020, which is twice the total construction of super charging piles in the past five years.
From complete vehicles to charging piles, Tesla is full of power in China market. On the one hand, it can digest the excess capacity of domestic new energy industry in recent years and bring new growth points of output value.
In terms of power batteries, although Tesla is accelerating the research and development of independent batteries, it still depends on suppliers in the short term, and hand in hand with Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. will indirectly promote the technology and production capacity of domestic power batteries;
The most direct benefit is the diaphragm and anode material industry. The former emphasizes assets and few newcomers. En Jie shares are basically a monopoly, with a market share of nearly 50%, and there is no dispute about expanding production; The latter is seriously different from the homogenization of cathode materials. The negative electrode material pattern is stable and the net profit rate is high. Putailai is a supplier of Tesla. With the domestic production of Tesla, Putailai, which is close to the water, is bound to usher in a new breakthrough.
In terms of raw materials, cobalt, manganese, nickel, lithium, aluminum and graphite industries are greatly affected by the fluctuation of market policies of the downstream head car factory. The "cobalt-free" battery announced by Tesla in the early stage has caused the cobalt industry to fall in the capital market for several days. However, with the expansion of Tesla, it is foreseeable that the digestive capacity will even break the bottleneck again.
Secondly, Tesla can form a demonstration effect of "Apple-like industrial chain", empower suppliers in the upper, middle and lower reaches, and enhance the recognition of the industry, thus gaining the opportunity to go global and driving the systematic advancement of the industry.
For example, H3C Intelligent Control Company, a supplier of thermal management system. According to the research report of Guo Jin Securities on June 5438+ 10 last year, it is in an absolute leading position in automotive electronic expansion valves. After entering the Tesla supply chain, it won Volkswagen, GM and? Orders for new energy vehicles such as Volvo * * * 140? 1 billion yuan.
For China's new energy industry chain, especially the core three-electricity system, the cooperation with Tesla is not only the improvement of production management experience and technical strength, but also the academic certificate of entering the supply chain system of world-class automobile enterprises.
Tesla the Shark in the Eyes of New Energy Vehicle Enterprises
If Tesla is a catfish that activates the new energy supply chain system, then Tesla is a shark that accelerates the demise of small and weak new energy vehicle enterprises in China.
First of all, Tesla's domestic production will accelerate the differentiation of new forces in building cars.
Starting from Letv in Jia Yueting, more than 6 years have passed since 100 new car-making forces emerged in China's new energy market. Many new forces occupy too much market resources and cause a lot of unnecessary waste. The strong introduction of Tesla will accelerate the decline of those speculators and tilt social funds to the new forces that really want to build good cars. In fact, with the arrival of Tesla, only 1 1 new domestic forces sold in 20 19 years, and 90% of them either disappeared or went bankrupt completely.
Secondly, car companies are forced to accelerate technology research and development in the field of new energy.
Tesla's influence on the new energy market is all-round, not only a new force to build cars, but also traditional car companies are under pressure.
Herbert Diss, CEO of Audi AG, once said: "The era of traditional automobile manufacturers is over. Volkswagen must strive to transform and avoid becoming the next Nokia. " Therefore, Volkswagen spent 20 billion euros to build MEB electrification platform and accelerate the process in the field of new energy. This year, the ID family will meet with consumers in advance.
As a pioneer in the field of new energy, Toyota monopolized more than half of the patents of hybrid technology in the past. The rapid development of Tesla, while expanding the market share of pure electricity, also forced Toyota to give up the patent in the hybrid field and share it with global car companies, thus resisting the expansion of the pure electricity market.
There are also domestic traditional car companies Changan and Geely, all of which are vigorously developing new energy technologies, making continuous progress in the fields of autonomous driving, intelligent safety and so on, and narrowing the distance with Tesla; The new domestic head forces, Weilai, Weimar and Tucki, are improving their service quality and level while making technological progress, forming differentiated advantages and winning consumers.
At the same time, Tesla will also cultivate a large number of potential customers of new energy vehicles.
For a long time, A00 mini-electric vehicle has been the main sales model in China's new energy market, with low price, poor quality and low battery life, and it is mainly used in the field of travel. New energy vehicles have not formed a good reputation image in the terminal market.
With the expansion of Tesla, its relatively technological design, powerful performance and good autonomous driving experience will change users' cognition of new energy products to a certain extent, and then cultivate more users who have a desire to consume new energy vehicles, giving the whole industry a chance to become bigger and stronger, just as the popularity of Apple's mobile phone brought a big explosion to the domestic smart phone market.
abstract
From early industrial protection to opening the market for Tesla's wholly-owned entry into China, even the models are rarely treated equally. The intention of China market to be included in the scope of subsidies is obvious: to recreate the glory of Apple's industrial chain with Tesla.
In 2009, based on the consideration of cost and balanced suppliers, Apple began to support China's industrial chain and create a legend. Zhou Qunsi, a working girl, led Lance Technology into Apple's supply chain to realize the skyrocketing wealth, as well as BOE and Shentianma in the panel, Oufei Technology in the touch screen, Xinwei Communication in the RF antenna, Shengrui Technology in the acoustic device, and Goer Acoustics. Are leading the world in their respective segments.
Not only that, the overall progress of the electronics industry has enabled mobile phone giants such as Huawei, Xiaomi and vivo to fully benefit from the spillover effect of supplier resources and technology, tempered their core competitiveness in the cruel killing, and finally narrowed the distance with Apple.
The current new energy industry is similar to the smart phone industry in the past, with overcapacity, big but not strong. Tesla will play the same role as Apple in the past. As for its success, let's wait and see.
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.