The quality of economic development will first be reflected in the stock market, which is a barometer of economic development, as in the past few major economic crises.
Internet companies are mostly light-asset companies, with no fixed assets and a large proportion of intangible assets. Moreover, Internet companies are generally overvalued and have a big bubble. This kind of company has poor ability to resist risks. In the event of an economic crisis, it is easy to collapse overnight!
The service industry, like Internet companies, is also a light asset type industry and a redistribution of social wealth. If an economic crisis occurs and people's income (that is, the first distribution of social wealth) decreases or disappears, how can they enjoy services?
Manufacturing and agriculture are the source of economic development. They provide living water for economic development, so their ability to resist risks is also the strongest (compared with other industries), and they are the last card to resist the economic crisis!
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The economic crisis is that the stock of money in the market is decreasing and the market is short of money. First of all, in the financial market, the securities market will be depressed because of lack of money, the banking industry will greatly increase the dormant accounts of bad debts because of poor liquidity, and the foreign trade field will shrink sharply because of the currency appreciation caused by the economic crisis, and spread to the futures market. Slow development will spread to the commodity market, leading to unsustainable manufacturing losses;
Let's talk about the causes and processes that led to the economic crisis.
This is a problem that most countries will encounter.
That is to say, a large number of foreign-funded enterprises have withdrawn from a country's domestic market (only one phenomenon, and there are countless channels to reduce the stock of market funds), so he changed his assets into local currency, and then went to the bank to exchange them for foreign exchange (usually dollars) to take away, so that these local currencies existed in banks, and local currencies flowed into banks, reducing the stock of the market. At the same time, the export trade is sluggish (the main reason), and many commodities are overstocked in China. Many funds have become commodities and cannot be realized, which has also caused the stock of money in the market to shrink. These overstocked commodity holders have products but no funds. After a long time, they will increase the price cost and cannot sell it. If they can only reduce the price, it will be a loss. If they lose money, they will go out of business. If they lose their jobs, they will lose their wages. If they lose their wages, their purchasing power will be reduced. So the goods can't be sold, forming a vicious circle. If this phenomenon occurs in all walks of life, if you accumulate too much, it will turn into an economic crisis. Generally speaking, countries will take active measures. On the one hand, they will put money into the market to stimulate purchasing power, on the other hand, they will introduce measures to encourage enterprises to resume production and avoid the danger from expanding and deepening.
When the economic crisis was extremely serious, a large number of factories and enterprises closed down, a large number of workers lost their jobs and living materials were extremely scarce. Prices will soar later. Unemployed workers have no money, can't afford it, and their lives are extremely difficult, which will cause social unrest and uncertainty. At this time, the only thing the country has to do is to do everything possible to resume production. Generally speaking, it is to inject capital into enterprises, quickly start commodity production, and let workers earn money, so that the commodities on the market will increase and gradually form a virtuous circle.
With the depreciation of goods and materials, the currency will appreciate relatively. It is worth noting that depreciation and appreciation are not necessarily synchronized with the emotional interference of the whole society (also affected by the international currency exchange rate), and commodities in a certain field will suddenly plummet, which will lead to the sudden collapse of this field. Currency has appreciated countless times in this field, and savvy businessmen will find the right time to take over and become billionaires in the future.
In countries with poor management, there will be economic crisis leading to inflation, and inflation will also lead to economic crisis, because economic crisis and inflation are two ends of a seesaw balance beam, and management is the fulcrum. Improper measures will lead to serious imbalances, such as Zimbabwe and Venezuela, Argentina and Turkey, Brazil and so on.
Generally, this will not happen in China. First, the management mechanism is sound; Second, there is a large space for coordination in geographical areas; Third, the population base is large and the regulation dimension is deep; Fourth, the industrial categories are complete, which can form the self-circulation of the commodity chain; Fifth, the economy is large, the market capacity is large, and the ability to resist risks is strong. But there will be fluctuations.
Economic crisis and financial crisis are not the same thing. Although they are closely related, they are both two-dimensional problems. Therefore, we have reason to believe that when the economic crisis occurs, although the financial sector has been hit hard, it can still "exchange time for space", that is, quickly transform financial assets and minimize losses. This is the advantage of finance. On the other hand, traditional entities cannot quickly transfer this crisis in a very short time, because a large number of fixed assets are vacant and may become a pile of liabilities.
Therefore, when the economic crisis occurs, it is the traditional industries that pay a huge price. On the contrary, those bad financial speculators can turn bad capital into high-quality capital through rapid transfer, minimize losses, and the most basic thing is strong liquidity.
In addition to the huge impact on traditional industries, there are also areas that are highly dependent on the capital market, such as the Internet and venture capital. Due to the dependence on capital, these areas are weak in resisting economic crisis, such as e-commerce platforms and so on.
I'm Sun Honghe, the editor-in-chief of the textbook "New Business Wisdom". Sun Honghe shares short videos of textbooks with you every day, and updates them every day. You can pay attention to Sun Honghe.
The financial market bears the brunt, because the financial market responds the fastest. If there are various spreads in the financial crisis, most investment institutions or individuals will choose to leave quickly, and cash is king. Professional institutions may take advantage of the crisis and take the opportunity to short.
Followed by the real economy, after the financial crisis, the liquidity of funds is tight, the capital chain of enterprises is likely to break, the bad debts of bank loans will increase, banks will be stricter, the financing channels of enterprises will narrow and the costs will increase. There will be a wave of business closures and widespread employee unemployment.
Finally, all kinds of consumption will be restrained, unemployment will increase, people will cherish their money more, consumption cost will be reduced, and the clothing industry and catering will be affected immediately.
I'm Ross. Please pay attention to more questions. Welcome to exchange and discuss. I hope it helps you.
Before answering this question, I think we should all understand the definition of EconomicCrisis: economic crisis refers to the continuous contraction (negative economic growth) of one or more countries' economies or the whole world economy for a relatively long period of time. It is an overproduction crisis that broke out periodically in the process of capitalist economic development. It is a unique phenomenon in capitalist society and a decisive stage of capitalist economic cycle. Since the first general economic crisis broke out in Britain from 65438 to 0825, the capitalist economy has never shaken off the influence of the economic crisis. The above is the definition in the book. The phenomenon is that the unemployment rate is rising, and capitalists have a relative surplus of materials, but most of them can't afford it. The unsalable goods lead to the break of enterprise capital chain and poor liquidity.
According to the above definition, we can analyze the industry sector. According to the classification of Shenwan industry, the securities market divides the companies we mainly involve into 28 industries. As of March 2020, the closing data of the stock market are as follows:
In fact, as a socialist country, China has almost never had an economic crisis. If forced to analyze, we can only analyze the runoff of the bubble from the perspective of the current industry market value and price-earnings ratio.
1. The price-earnings ratio of the computer and electronics industries is relatively high.
It may bear the brunt, because the unsalable electronic equipment will lead to the closure of a large number of related companies.
2. Followed by agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery.
Although the price-earnings ratio of leisure services is low, it will obviously be affected.
4. cars
5. Textile services
Crucially, it is very important to understand the first statement. We can simply understand what we will consider first if we have no money. In fact, these 28 industries, except those related to the country, will basically be affected together, and no one will be spared. Only according to the different volume, it will lead to different degrees of influence.
Personal opinion, welcome to discuss.
Non-essential industries, such as jewelry, luxury goods, high-end catering, entertainment, luxury cars, plastic surgery, orthodontics, casinos, film and television, professional sports and so on.
Supermarkets, fast food restaurants and dollar stores benefit instead.
First of all, let's meet.
Economic crisis:
When the national economy and the world economy retrogressed for a long time, banks went bankrupt because of the credit crisis, which led to the bankruptcy of a large number of national enterprises, unsalable products, reduced profits and a large number of unemployment, which paralyzed the entire social and economic productivity and the consequences were unimaginable.
For example, after working in a public institution for ten years, the company's benefits are increasing every year, and the income and quality of life of Lao A are also increasing. The weather is unpredictable, and the moon is full of rain or shine, but I don't know ... The situation has suddenly changed, and the unit enterprises produce a large number of goods. And nobody cares. The goods produced appear to be surplus, and the contradictions accumulate over time, resulting in the company losing money year after year. The company's benefits plummeted, factories were underemployed, and a large number of employees were unemployed. With the loss of the enterprise, the income of Lao A has obviously decreased by more than half, and the pressure has increased. In order to reduce the pressure of life, cars
If there is an economic crisis, which industries will be hit first?
1. Bank securities
As mentioned earlier, the outbreak of the economic crisis led to the bankruptcy of a large number of national enterprises, which led to an increase in the bad debt rate of banks, thus directly affecting the trust crisis of banks. Speaking of financial securities, due to the economic downturn, ordinary people will only put their funds in the security field, let alone invest. As we all know, the securities market is capital-driven, with no incremental funds and no fresh blood. Where can it rise? For security reasons, everyone will only withdraw funds from the security field.
Second, real estate.
Real estate accounts for a large proportion. With the outbreak of the economic crisis, the real estate industry has been hit the hardest. In the process of production and business activities, due to the influence of the economic environment, many real estate developers can't sell their houses, thus the capital chain is broken, and the consequences are self-evident.
3. Manufacturing industry
In other words, our daily life depends on food, clothing, housing and transportation. The goods produced by enterprises cannot be sold, and the supply and demand are unbalanced, which deeply affects social development and economic retrogression.
In short, a strong country is not necessarily rich in the people, and a rich country must be stronger than the people. With the development of social economy, the lives of ordinary people are getting richer and richer. Of course, this can not be separated from our great motherland, and can not be separated from everyone who silently contributes to the motherland. China is not old.