1. With the outbreak of the international financial crisis, the commodity market experienced three stages: "six months' plunge-two years' surge-five years' plunge". In the first two stages, the economic situation of various countries was basically consistent with the market trend. The third stage, the trend differentiation, China's economy is weak, and the United States' economy is strong. The international financial crisis led to a panic plunge in commodity prices and a sharp decline in global economic growth. In August 2008, the international financial crisis broke out, commodities were sold in panic, prices plummeted and the market failed. The world's major economies have introduced rescue policies to turn the tide. Commodity prices at home and abroad have stabilized simultaneously.
2. The South China Industrial Products Index, which represents the price level of industrial products and commodities in China, stopped falling in June 5438+February 2008, with a drop of over 54%. The CRB index, which represents the price level of international industrial raw materials and commodities, fell by 37%. From the second quarter to the fourth quarter of 2008, China's GDP growth rate decreased by 3.8 percentage points, OECD member countries decreased by 1.2 percentage points, and the United States decreased by 3.84 percentage points. Economic stimulus policies have pushed commodities up sharply, and the global economy has picked up. The super rise in commodity prices lasted for two years and four months. South China's industrial products index rose 140%, CRB index rose 102%, and the economies of various countries generally picked up. The hidden collapse of commodity prices at the end of the crisis has different effects on the economies of different countries.
The sharp rise of commodity market in recent two years has helped the economy out of the crisis, but it has also buried hidden dangers. 20 1 1 At the beginning of the year, the action to save the crisis came to an end and then declined for five years. It was not until the supply-side structural reform policy of China was introduced that the market was pushed out of the quagmire. Closely track the inventory level of raw materials, finished products and other industrial chain links. Eliminate hoarding in time and give full play to the normal role of the market mechanism. Cool down the overheated market. It is suggested that in view of the difficulties faced by small and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises in the State Council, the Ministry of Commerce should be allowed to appropriately expand the import quotas of some bulk commodities, and the Ministry of Finance should appropriately reduce the tariff rate. Reduce the procurement cost of entity enterprises. It is suggested that the State Council should guide the relevant state departments to crack down on price-fixing behavior, maintain market order, and reasonably guide market expectations. It is suggested to guide think tanks and media organizations to pay more attention to and study the living conditions of traditional manufacturing enterprises and understand the difficulties they face.
4. Guide commodity futures investors to comprehensively and objectively understand the market supply and demand pattern, carefully, calmly and rationally evaluate market trend changes, and not blindly give full play to the role of financial services, not the other way around. Resolutely implement the State Council's unified deployment, unify thoughts, eliminate differences, clarify market signals, and improve the efficiency and intensity of national policy implementation. It is suggested to guide research institutions to better understand the concerns of relevant state departments from the perspective of national interests, condense market knowledge and improve the efficiency of national policy implementation. Prevent the national economic early warning from being marginalized and weakened.