Content introduction:

"There are no eggs under the nest", a natural earthquake and tsunami disaster, easily crosses national boundaries and affects the whole world. Under the background of economic globalization, Japan's earthquake, tsunami and nuclear accident directly led to economic fluctuations and the rupture of production chain. The theory of "butterfly effect" explains the realistic influence of disaster globalization. The first episode of Apocalypse of Japan Earthquake, Butterfly Wings, tells how the triple disaster in Japan affected the whole world step by step.

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Commentary: On the afternoon of March 1 1, China A-share market experienced a thrilling scene. Originally, the Shanghai Composite Index turned red at 2: 35, showing an upward trend. But when the news of the earthquake in Japan came, the stock index immediately turned around and dived. This is the direct reaction of China's capital market to the Japanese earthquake of magnitude 9.

Interview with Songzuo: We are now in a global capital market and financial market, which is full of troubles. If something happens somewhere, there will be very violent turmoil.

Commentary: Xiang Songzuo, Deputy Director of the Institute of International Monetary Studies, Renmin University of China.

Interview with Songzuo: In this context, oil prices soared and commodity prices soared. Everyone will be affected by this, so you should understand this disaster as a disaster for all mankind.

Commentary: Almost at the same time that the huge waves of the tsunami washed up on the coast, panic spread in the global capital market-the Nikkei 225 index plunged in panic, and then the stock markets in South Korea, Hong Kong and Singapore fell in succession that day. The earthquake in Japan sent a tragic first wave to the world in the form of a sharp decline in financial markets.

Interview with Xiang, deputy director of the Institute of International Monetary Studies of Renmin University of China: In the era without globalization, the disaster that happened in your place has little impact on other regions. However, globalization magnifies the whole thing. I think this is the second kind, that is, natural and man-made disasters. Both of them will greatly amplify this risk and the impact of this disaster because of the deepening of globalization. In my opinion, the third big problem is globalization itself. That is, there will be many new risks, that is, when there is no globalization, you don't have this risk.

Cross-linking: When we say that the world has become an era of globalization, we refer more to the interdependence of countries in economy and trade. On March 1 1, the earthquake and tsunami in Japan reminded people that the impact of a disaster was not limited to Japan, but spread all over the world. So is today's disaster becoming more and more global? How did it become a global event related to everyone?

Commentary: From a sudden earthquake of magnitude 9 to a tsunami with a maximum height of more than 40 meters; From the fear of Fukushima nuclear leakage to the global spread of unresolved radioactive materials. How did the impact of this disaster spread from Japan to the whole world step by step? The butterfly effect is the best interpretation.

American meteorologist Edward Lorenz's research shows: "A butterfly in the tropical rain forest of the Amazon River basin in South America can trigger a tornado in Texas within two weeks." The reason is that the movement of butterfly flapping its wings causes changes in the surrounding air system, resulting in weak airflow, which in turn causes corresponding changes in the surrounding air or other systems, causing a chain reaction and eventually leading to great changes in other systems. This theory explains the disastrous consequences that may occur after very small changes in initial conditions are continuously amplified by the global atmospheric circulation system. Later, people found that this theory is also applicable in many fields such as weather and stock market. However, at11March1March 13: 46, the violent plate collision outside Honshu Island in Japan prompted an unprecedented butterfly effect to surface.

These scenes have been deeply remembered by people. This is one of the biggest earthquakes ever recorded. The power from the earth's crust showed its destructive power to mankind through the tsunami. At the beginning of this great disaster, the cost paid by human beings was tens of thousands of lives lost and countless property losses. Then the tsunami continued to spread to the Pacific Rim at a speed of 800 kilometers per hour.

Interview with Gao Mengtan, deputy director of the Institute of Geophysics, Seismological Bureau of China: In the era of globalization, the impact of this disaster is indeed an intangible way, and it has an impact through various channels.

Commentary: Gao Mengtan, deputy director of Institute of Geophysics, Seismological Bureau of China.

Interview with Gao Mengtan, deputy director of Institute of Geophysics, Seismological Bureau of China: Mainly with the process of globalization, the links between countries are not only geographical, but also economic or other conditions, including energy resources. In the era of globalization, it must be global configuration, not which country solves the problem by itself.

Commentary: Just three minutes after the earthquake, the Japanese government issued a tsunami warning signal. Six minutes later, the United States, far away from the other side of the ocean in the middle of the night, also issued an alarm. At the same time, China, South Korea, the Philippines, Russian and other countries have followed suit, and a series of tsunami warnings have spread from the east and west coasts of the Pacific Ocean.

Commentary: In Chinese mainland, there has been no devastating tsunami for 500 years, but this still cannot reduce our understanding of the surrounding situation. In recent five years, the number of tsunamis caused by earthquakes all over the world is not small, and the shocking South Asian tsunami in 2004 is a nightmare that human beings can't forget. This is the most destructive tsunami on record, with 300,000 people dead or missing.

Historical interview: In the past, when the world was relatively isolated, the progress of a technology was limited to the advantages and disadvantages of one place.

Commentary: Shi Peijun, deputy director of the Expert Committee of the National Disaster Reduction Committee.

Interview history: However, with the advance of Internet era and globalization era, extreme events in any place may affect the whole world along the globalized information chain, information network, supply chain and production chain.

Commentary: Since the mid-20th century, the development of science and technology has accelerated mankind to an era marked by the application of atomic energy, computers, space technology and bioengineering. It seems that we can control nature easily. But whenever human beings are proud of this, nature will always warn us with greater strength.

Interview history: So today we must use another way of thinking to understand that technological progress anywhere today may benefit the whole world. However, while any technological progress has various advantages, it is also possible that its unexpected disadvantages will also produce a risk chain along such a benefit chain.

Commentary: Once the risk occurs, the disaster chain will be quickly linked. The distance from Fukushima nuclear power plant to the epicenter is about 140 km. The earthquake and tsunami hit the world's largest nuclear power plant for the first time. The damaged cooling system can't work normally, and the reactor temperature keeps rising. After being pushed ashore by the tsunami, the butterfly effect of the disaster began to advance according to its own logic over the Fukushima nuclear power plant.

Interview with Yin Zhi: There is an old saying in China that there are no eggs under the nest.

Commentary: Yin Zhi, Dean of Tsinghua Urban Planning and Design Institute.

Yin Zhi: That is to say, at any time in your life, such global pollution or harmful emissions will have a global impact.

Commentary: On March 12, two explosions occurred in the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant 1 reactor, forcing residents within 20 kilometers nearby to evacuate urgently.

Interview with Paul Tianyuan: Compared with the people in the Northeast, I am very lucky. Watching TV every day, the people affected by the disaster are really poor. Compared with them, I am really lucky.

Comment: Paul Tahara, Japanese freelance writer.

Paul Tianyuan: On the one hand, I feel lucky, on the other hand, I am very worried. I found this ambivalence not only for myself, but also for my friends.

Commentary: The danger of Fukushima nuclear power plant has aroused widespread concern in the international community at the first time, and various countries have sent rescue teams to Japan to participate in the rescue. The United States even asked the USS Reagan, which participated in the Korean-American military exercise, to sail to Japan immediately, and international rescue forces quickly assembled in Japan according to the usual international aid model.

Interview with Yi Feng: This time, there is a very big feature, that is, the concept of comprehensive disaster rescue for multiple disasters.

Commentary: Yi Feng, researcher of China Nuclear Energy Industry Association and expert of National Nuclear Emergency Coordination Committee.

Interview with Yi Feng: A tsunami, an earthquake. It should be said that Japan is a very experienced country, and even a tsunami island country has rich experience. The problem is that when these three disasters are superimposed, there is even a group of reactors in Fukushima base, and the first nuclear power (station unit), the second nuclear power (station unit) and ten nuclear power (station units) are in crisis at the same time. The director of the French nuclear safety administration said a fair word. He said that since mankind used nuclear energy, we have never encountered such a high-intensity and high-density challenge, which made our Japanese counterparts encounter it.

Commentary: After March 12, Units 2 and 4 of Fukushima Nuclear Power Station exploded one after another, and the evacuation radius suddenly expanded to 30 kilometers. The horrible memory of the nuclear bomb explosion and the chaotic data and information test the psychological endurance bottom line of Japanese nationals.

Interview with Yi Feng: Recently, we also saw that Fiona Fang is a no-man's land within 20 kilometers, that is, there are basically no residents, and all of them have been evacuated. Its decontamination is too difficult, and people don't want to come back with such psychological trauma. This is the so-called stigma effect in sociology I mentioned. No matter how clean your government gives me, I can't psychologically wash away this shadow.

Commentary: The nuclear material scattered with the wind made the Reagan aircraft carrier that came to the rescue evacuate quickly. The continuous explosion from Fukushima made Japan suffer multiple blows from earthquake, tsunami and nuclear material leakage in less than 24 hours. The butterfly effect of disaster spreads to the whole world with the atmospheric circulation and ocean currents.

Interview with Matsuzaka: In the past 40 years, the biggest change of all mankind is the rapid deepening of globalization I just mentioned. It involves everyone in the global system. No matter where something goes wrong in the future, it will affect everyone in the world, so I think this is the most fundamental fact that we human beings are facing now.

Commentary: On March 16, a Japanese plane with radioactive substances exceeding the standard was found at Dalian International Airport. On March 29th, it was officially confirmed that all provinces in China except Tibet have detected very small amounts of radiation, but the content will not affect the environment and public health. In Tokyo, a super metropolis near Fukushima, more people go abroad or move south for insurance reasons.

Interviewing passengers at the airport: it's terrible. I'm scared every day, as if I were going crazy.

Interview with passengers at the airport: Japanese architecture is ok, but it can't be knocked down by the earthquake. But I'm still afraid of the tsunami, but if it's a tsunami, we'll go to the highlands, so at least we can escape. But once the nuclear power plant really leaks, we have nowhere to run.

Interview with Paul Tianyuan: I noticed my ambivalence. I think many people in Tokyo are like this. Although it was not directly affected, it was indirectly affected. I began to feel uneasy about what to do in the future.

Narita airport is crowded with foreigners who have returned to China to take refuge. A nuclear crisis has turned many people outside the disaster area into "invisible victims". The butterfly effect, the second wave of the disaster marked by the terrible nuclear leakage, is further amplified in the flow of people.

Reporter: In the past, when we talked about globalization, we mainly meant economic globalization. What new contents will be added to the concept of globalization after this catastrophe in Japan?

Xiang Songzuo: Everything in daily life can be imagined. If you do all the calculations, you will find that these things come from all over the world, that is, the products of a country or a region can't meet your needs, and its industrial chain has been globalized first. Therefore, this kind of globalization has been all-round globalization, even deepening to people's spiritual level.

Commentary: Globalization has turned the earth into a complex system in which you have me and I have you. Interdependence is the characteristic of this era. In this highly complex system, the butterfly effect of disaster began to spread all over the world by using all available tools and paths.

Reporter: Now, this amplification has not happened in Japan itself, but now it is a worldwide problem.

Yin Zhi: That's right. After the globalization of global economy, especially after information technology has created a brand-new global family, it is inevitable that the city gate will catch fire and the fish in the pool will be harmed. Now the whole world is a jagged industrial chain, your production, manufacturing, circulation and so on. Any one of your chains is broken, and the whole system is at least inefficient.

Explanation: The complex chain effect of "butterfly effect" may happen to us every day. We can't go back to the past to change our past and change our future. What we need is to correctly grasp our present. The compound disaster caused by the earthquake occurred in Japan, a country with developed economy, good national quality and rich experience in dealing with earthquake disasters. People instinctively think that this may minimize the losses caused by natural disasters. However, what people did not expect was that the butterfly effect of disaster not only did not stop its movement, but was amplified by the chain effect of globalization.

Interview with Gao Mengtan: Not every butterfly has an impact, but a specific butterfly may have an impact.

Reporter: What butterfly has such a great globalization effect under what circumstances?

Gao Mengtan: For example, if you are somewhere in the Middle East, if there is a major earthquake, many oil fields are closed or oil facilities are destroyed, then the global oil price may soon rise to an unbearable level. Then, the impact on industrial economy and industrial commerce will immediately reflect great power.

Commentary: With the aggravation of nuclear leakage, the butterfly effect of disaster continues to operate according to its own logic, and its power gradually appears on a larger scale around the world with the passage of time. Although hundreds of warriors at the Fukushima nuclear power plant struggled to stop the leakage, they still failed to change the overall trend of the disaster. The deep influence is also closely followed, and food is the most direct embodiment of this chain effect. Japanese food is widely welcomed by the world because of its high quality and safety factor. However, after the nuclear accident, trace radioactive substances were detected in vegetables near Fukushima and tap water in Tokyo, and 25 countries and regions such as the United States, China, Singapore and South Korea restricted the import of Japanese agricultural products and processed foods. At this time, the Fukushima nuclear power plant, together with Chernobyl, was remembered by mankind.

Xiang Songzuo: Now many Japanese products, for example, are afraid to import. Although scientists say it may not be too harmful, the hearts of ordinary people are sometimes not completely proportional to your scientific data.

Commentary: The Japanese government appeals to WTO members not to overreact to nuclear leakage and not to set up barriers to Japanese food. However, out of concern about Japan's dumping of nuclear sewage into the sea, some snack bars that mainly import food from abroad are tacitly aware of "Japan's import", and the food safety crisis in Japan comes quietly like nuclear radiation. Is the world really overreacting to the Japanese tsunami and its secondary disasters?

Reporter: We now know that what happened some time ago is that with the diffusion of iodine-13 1 in the air, what harm does it do if radioactive substances enter the sea or even flow into the ground?

Yi Feng: This kind of harm is very great. As a fluid, its underground diffusion is uncontrollable to some extent. If it is marine ecology, the long-term accumulation of high-level radioactive waste liquid will constitute an ecological disaster in the sea area of 3 to 50 kilometers, and some of the sludge will be highly polluted. Take cesium-137 as an example, its half-life is 30 years.

Reporter: Does this cesium-137 exist in water?

Yi Feng: It is soluble in water.

Commentary: The whole world is thinking of the brave men who struggled at the Fukushima nuclear power plant. However, their admirable efforts failed to prevent the butterfly effect of disaster from entering a more complex and huge system. Air, water, vegetables and milk have all become the media for the spread of nuclear materials. It is also through these systems closely related to people's daily lives that this disaster broke through the earthquake, tsunami and nuclear accident, and directly started the third wave of global spread from the psychological level.

Xiang Songzuo: I believe that no one thought that the nuclear crisis would be so serious a week ago, nor would they think that it would have such a far-reaching impact on the ocean in the future. Now this issue is also before us in China, not only before the Japanese, but also before all our neighbors. What will you do in the future?

Commentary: When the Internet is used by the butterfly effect of disaster, an incomprehensible panic follows. At first, with the continuous updating and development of information about nuclear leakage in Japan, it began to be rumored on the Internet that the BBC had issued a nuclear proliferation warning, and the relevant departments denied the rumor at the first time.

In the same period, Shui Junyi: official website specially introduced the BBC, saying that the BBC had never made such a report.

Commentary: In fact, after the nuclear accident in Japan, there were many "overreactions" caused by panic around the world. The day after the earthquake in Japan, the United States snapped up food containing iodine. Six days later, Yukio Edano, the Chief Cabinet Secretary of Japan, said in a televised speech that not only in the evacuation area around the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, but also in the neighboring areas along the northeast coast, materials were snapped up. On March 16, a salt storm suddenly fell from the sky in markets all over China!

Interview with Yin Zhi: Actually, in terms of the ability to resist rumors or the only way to resist fear, this is actually a return to the old saying that knowledge is power. In fact, what you are facing is the popularization of all kinds of natural science knowledge by the whole people. Only when you know this, you won't feel afraid. Then inspire a fear mentality to spread this mentality.

Reporter's appearance: People have long been used to this situation-capital can be transferred across continents in a few seconds, and information can be transmitted in almost zero time difference. In fact, it means that when a disaster happens in one corner of the world, it can spread to all parts of the world quickly. So we have seen overreaction caused by panic in many countries, such as grabbing salt. The question is, which is overreacting and which may not be enough? This may be a problem that needs people to spend a long time to solve.

Commentary: Through the positive response of China government and mainstream media, the rush to buy quickly receded, and this sudden storm quickly subsided. However, psychological panic can be eliminated in the first time by promptly dispelling rumors, and the great impact of a series of disasters on the global economy has just begun.

In the era of globalization, people will realize the risks and even costs of globalization at some special moments while gaining the benefits of globalization. The automobile manufacturing industry is the first to be affected. Japan is an important part of the world automobile industry chain. Twenty-two factories of Toyota, Honda and Nissan, Japan's three major automakers, closed after the earthquake. If they can't get back to normal as soon as possible, the world automobile production may drop by as much as 30% two months after the earthquake. The response of manufacturing industry to disasters often comes later than direct disasters, but it has the greatest impact on global life.

Reporter: When it comes to cars, you may intuitively feel a little strong, because by the end of this sale, it has been reflected in 4S stores and all sellers. Japanese cars are going up in price, even joint venture cars are going up in price.

Xiang Songzuo: Some key components were produced in the earthquake-stricken areas of Japan. Now the production is stopped, and now it is a problem. The impact will not be eliminated in a short time, but in a month or two or even two quarters.

Commentary: If the concept of globalization is explained in simple and straightforward language, the globalization of industrial chain means "financing at the lowest financing cost, producing at the lowest production cost and selling at the highest sales price". Japanese automakers have always been a model of low cost and high efficiency. Take Toyota as an example, Toyota's management philosophy is "just-in-time production centered on orders" and "zero inventory" is Toyota's pursuit. Since 1970s, the global manufacturing industry has been learning from Toyota's supply chain management, and JIT and zero inventory have become the pursuit of all enterprises. However, in the face of the earthquake and tsunami, the perfect mode of production was ruthlessly broken.

Xiang Songzuo: Everything has a good side and a bad side, and nothing is completely good. No matter how advanced the technology is, its risks and advanced management methods, there are also your risks, and no matter how good the product is, there are also your side effects. So, this is globalization, which is magnified, because it extends your whole risks and benefits to the whole world.

Commentary: The earthquake in Japan directly hit Japan's economic and manufacturing center, but it also meant a blow to the world economy. According to the estimation of the Nihon Keizai Shimbun, the earthquake caused at least $476 billion in output loss to the world's manufacturing industry, which is, in Japanese words, "the trouble of the whole world".

Interview with Matsumoto: Now it seems that the disaster in Japan will have a far-reaching impact on almost all aspects of the world. Not only money market, financial market, including industrial chain.

Commentary: At least five kinds of electronic components of Apple tablet iPad2 are produced by Japanese manufacturers. Even some parts can be produced by other manufacturers, because the battery of iPad 2 is very thin, and only Japanese technology can produce it. Therefore, Apple may face a shortage of more than two key components of the iPad. The logistics system destroyed by the earthquake, coupled with insufficient power and fuel supply, may take months or even years to heal the wounds caused by the earthquake.

Electronic products salesman: Sendai, Fukushima and other disaster-stricken areas are all areas with relatively developed electronics industry in Japan. At present, the supply of goods on the market is in short supply, and there is no clear answer from various manufacturers as to when the goods will arrive.

Commentary: If the nuclear leakage crisis is not effectively controlled, nuclear radiation pollutants will undoubtedly have a serious impact on Japan's natural environment, agriculture and fisheries, tourism, logistics and foreign economic and trade activities, and then affect global trade. As a matter of fact, merchant ships from many countries no longer call at Tokyo Port for fear of nuclear radiation. The butterfly effect of the disaster has brought great shock to the global manufacturing industry by cutting off the supply chain, and it has become the fourth wave that affects the world after the earthquake and tsunami, the spread of nuclear radiation and the food panic.

Xiang Songzuo: The Japanese economy is in a relatively high-end position in the industrial chain, such as producing some core parts and high-tech parts, so that you can move to China immediately, ok? Ok, but it will take some time, not right away. Because it involves not only the purchase of production line equipment, but also management and staff training, it takes some time.

Commentary: More than a month has passed since the earthquake in Japan. Tokyo Electric Power Company and Japanese government are trying to close Pandora's Box of the nuclear crisis as soon as possible. A nuclear crisis triggered by the earthquake and tsunami in Japan, after a series of butterfly effect transmission, amplification and fermentation, throws out a series of problems that must be faced and solved together-how to block the transmission of disaster effect in time? How did man and nature come into being? Perhaps, if human beings want to make progress, such collisions will always exist.

Reporter: So this kind of disaster is not only a disaster in Japan, but also a worldwide disaster. Is this an accident or is it becoming a trend?

S: It is a complete trend, mainly because the interconnectedness of human society is strengthened, which leads to disasters in one place and obviously increases the influence on other places.

Comments:

With the escalation of the nuclear crisis and the appearance of economic and psychological effects, the follow-up effects caused by the earthquake are still expanding and spreading in various ways. The development track of this disaster has broken through the existing experience and imagination of human beings step by step, forcing countries to come up with countermeasures, and at the same time pushing people of different nationalities, colors and languages to comprehensively sort out the global disasters encountered in human history. Why did such a regional disaster become such a huge global event today? What makes it more and more difficult for people to bear the risks brought by the globalization of disasters?

CCTV will continue to broadcast the second episode of Fukushima Salvation and the third episode of Lessons from Nuclear Power.