In the past two years, we have often seen the word "financial real estate". What the hell does this mean? What's the value? Can it be considered as asset allocation?
1. What is "financial real estate"?
Simply put, it is to allocate a certain financial product, let it play the role of maintaining and increasing value, and continuously generate stable cash flow income. This is just like many people in the past were keen on investing in real estate, waiting for the appreciation to stabilize, and after renting out, they could still collect the rent on time every month and generate cash flow income. Because of its financial nature, we call it "financial real estate" to achieve this purpose of asset allocation.
2. Who is suitable for "financial real estate"?
So what kind of person is financial real estate suitable for? Including but not limited to the following people:
People who own multiple properties in non-core areas of first-tier cities.
People who own multiple properties in second-and third-tier cities and below.
People who own a property in first-tier cities and invest in one or more properties in second-and third-tier cities.
People who own a house, plan to leave a house for their children or plan to invest in real estate for the elderly.
In the face of "financial real estate", the holder can let it play the following roles:
When the price is right, "sell the house" to cash out, get back the principal and income, and then make plans.
If you are short of money, you can pay a room to realize some cash, and then the "big house reform and small house" will continue to appreciate and collect rent.
Temporary turnover, you can mortgage the loan, and continue to appreciate after the loan is over; Has been held, after his death, "financial real estate" has become an asset that can be passed down regularly, directionally and quantitatively, and continues to be used by the second and third generations; For business owners, it can also effectively isolate the joint liability risk of corporate debt.
3. Are the physical properties not fragrant?
Whether the physical property is still fragrant depends on whether the house bought is still a "high-quality security asset".
Yes, of course.
No, it needs careful consideration.
The standard of "quality safety assets" must meet at least two conditions:
First, "high quality" and stable value can outperform most capital products.
Second, it is "safe", with small fluctuations, and appreciation can generate stable cash flow.
Space is limited. To make a long story short, the real estate development in China City can be roughly divided into three stages in terms of the price of new houses:
The first stage, 2000-2065 438+02, China Housing is a high-quality security asset.
In the second stage, 20 13-202 1 diverged, and houses in some cities were high-quality security assets.
In the third stage, after 2022, it will continue to be sharply divided, but the real estate in a few areas is still a high-quality and safe asset.
A large number of nouveau riche in the real estate industry during this big bonus period all originated from an inertial thinking, that is, under the situation of rapid economic growth in China, rapid urbanization in China and rapid growth in the real estate industry in the past 40 years, everyone has become accustomed to real estate investment as a rigid redemption product that can resist inflation.
However, in recent years, seven years have passed since the Central Economic Work Conference first proposed that "houses are for living, not for speculation" in February 20 16. Including the recent implementation of unified registration of real estate in China, it shows that the rigid belief that real estate must increase in value has been broken.
20 16 at the central economic work conference in February 16, it was first mentioned not to speculate on housing.
20 19 is the worst year in the past, but it is the best year in the future. This is a sentence from 19. People who didn't understand the economic situation at that time thought this sentence was particularly melodramatic-it has been good for 40 years, shouldn't it always be good? Then, in addition to the global economic downturn, China's industrial transformation, Sino-US trade friction and other factors, the COVID-19 epidemic has changed again.
Looking back on the past three years, feeling the present, and refining the sentence at the end of 2065438+2009, is it amazing? What happened afterwards? Can the myth of real estate market still exist? Is the imagination based on past experience still reliable?
Looking back five years, China's economic growth largely depends on policies. Assuming that the macro policy is "steady and positive", we can expect GDP growth to be around 4-4.5%. In addition, China is currently facing several current situations:
The urbanization rate is close to 70%, and the scope of large-scale population inflow into cities is not large.
Compared with 10 years ago, the proportion of the main childbearing population aged 25-39 in China has dropped by more than 20%, and the improvement of education and income level is also affecting the young people's fertility will.
In 2020, China's urban housing ownership rate is 73%, which is higher than the level of 60% in developed countries as a whole, but the self-occupation rate in the north, Guangzhou and Shenzhen is still below 60%.
In view of China's future economic growth and social status, it can probably be predicted that the annualized income of China real estate is likely to hover around 2%, but the return of first-tier cities may still remain at 5% (note that this is a new house).
Therefore, when you ask whether you want to buy a house, you might as well ask yourself whether you can accept a product with an average annualized rate of return of about 2% or 5%. Or ask yourself, do you have the vision and luck to make individual choices beyond this income?
4. How to choose "financial real estate" vs. physical real estate?
Before talking about how to choose, let's take a look at the common categories of investable financial management, which are nothing more than the following:
First, from now to the future, physical real estate is not necessarily high-quality, but the market is sharply divided. Its value can't be denied in a package, and it doesn't have the market that can rise in the early stage of economic development.
Second, stocks, funds, futures, gold and various financial derivatives have been manipulated by many people. The influence of variables such as cycle, ups and downs, and the timing of liquidation will affect your mood in the short term, and the long-term value has not yet determined the attribute of value-added and preservation. Not much to say here.
Third, antiques, jewelry, calligraphy and painting. This kind of thing, okay. However, there are limitations. The biggest limitation is narrow audience and uncertain price.
The fourth is the "financial real estate" mentioned at the beginning of this article.
Considering the two standards of high-quality security assets, the only products that can be compared in the same dimension are "financial real estate" and physical real estate. How to choose the standard, we can talk from the following aspects:
1, liquidity.
2. profitability.
3. Investment threshold.
4. Other added value.
Let's take a look at the performance of a "financial real estate". Suppose a house of 100 square meters, with a total price of100000, is purchased in the name of a child and paid in five installments, each of which is 200,000 yuan. This pressure is relatively easier than a physical property, with a down payment of several hundred thousand.
After the payment, the monthly rent is 2500 yuan, and the annual rent is 30 thousand yuan. Don't worry, don't worry about rent break, don't pay property tax. It is both worry-free and labor-saving. The rent can be collected stably for 70 years, and the total rent is 703,000 = 265,438+10,000. At this time, the "house price" has changed from 6.5438+0 million to 2.86 million. At this time, you can have two choices.
Now, if you want to buy a property, according to the logic of the previous analysis, you must first choose high-quality and safe assets, at least in the core areas of first-tier cities, so that you can hold it safely for a long time, because you are not worried about downside risks and the property tax of 1-3 points. As long as there is room for appreciation, the real estate value here is residential, and the long-term income is stable, with an average annualized rate of return of around 2% or 5%.
First of all, the specific profitability:
Financial real estate is infinitely close to 3.5% compound interest products, which can be held for a long time, even exceeding 3.5, equivalent to more than 10 per year; For physical real estate, the premise is to choose suitable high-quality real estate that can preserve and increase value. In the long run, it can maintain less than 5% annualized.
Look again, what about realizing it?
If you need money badly at home, you should cash it out quickly. If the current market situation is not good, buyers have no reason not to bargain, but also consider the aging of lots and future houses. How much this suite will cost in a few years is also very uncertain.
And financial real estate, after a three-year closure period. This "financial property" has a yield of 3.5% almost every year. At the same time, the cash value of the "financial real estate" is stipulated in the contract. If you want to "sell a house", you can settle it according to the cash value of the year without any discount. If you only want to spend a little money, then sell a "house" and the remaining house can continue to appreciate with 3.5% compound interest.
Next, look at the investment threshold: high-quality real estate in first-tier cities, investment threshold, even if you buy a small apartment with one room and one living room of 40 square meters, you need more than 4 million. Suppose you have a room ticket, and the down payment of 30% is 1.2 million; Financial real estate threshold is more flexible, rich and thrifty. Judging from the results, the amount of investment depends on how much net assets you have.
Finally, financial real estate does not have the ability to isolate debt risks and directional inheritance. For business owners, it greatly reduces debt and property disputes and saves a lot of trouble.
The "financial real estate" mentioned above is actually a typical whole life insurance product. In the insurance products, besides protection, there are savings products that can bring value-added or cash flow, such as annuity insurance and incremental whole life insurance. According to the contract, these products have agreed survival interests and legacy interests for customers and beneficiaries.
Facing the economic environment that is no longer calm and the demographic changes in the future, it is one of the choices to have a stable and sustainable cash pool and cash flow to optimize family assets and increase safe assets.