When the technology bubble broke out in 2009, the highly hyped online companies seemed to evaporate, and many online businesses were forced to abort. After the robbery, internet companies tightened their business, but fortunately, more and more netizens inspired them. Now the evaluation of internet companies has improved, a lot. Com company has indeed begun to make profits, but the business community is still cautiously evaluating the potential of the Internet. Nevertheless, some people boldly predict that a large number of economic giants in the world will soon move to cyberspace in some way.
According to the incomplete statistics of the Ministry of Commerce, the online retail sales increased by 26% last year, reaching 55 billion US dollars. This sounds like a big number, but it is only equivalent to 1.6% of the global retail industry. Most adult consumers are still used to spending in the "physical" world.
In fact, the figures released by the Ministry of Commerce only involve some industries. For example, although this figure includes online travel services, e-commerce industry is one of the most successful and fastest-growing industries. IAC, which owns two TV stations in expedia.com and hotels.com, had a turnover of $654.38 billion last year. The total online business of competitors, including airlines, hotels and taxi companies, also increased significantly last year, but these enterprises with rising online turnover were not reflected in the figures of the Ministry of Commerce.
Similarly, the figures of the Ministry of Commerce do not include financial services, ticketing agents and online pornography (according to statistics, the turnover of online pornography in the United States reached $2 billion last year). In addition, there are a large number of business forms related to the gambling industry (the global online gambling industry turnover is as high as 6 billion US dollars) that have not been mentioned.
Second, the tip of the iceberg.
In addition, although the figures of the Ministry of Commerce include the profits of auction websites, they do not include the value of auction goods, which is estimated to be as high as tens of billions of dollars. Last year, Yi Bei, the largest auction website, sold goods worth as much as $24 billion. According to the definition of the Ministry of Commerce, the total value of goods with turnover of billions of dollars is not included. And many B2B business forms are not open. For example, Wal-Mart explicitly warned its suppliers that if it wants to be a part of its $250 billion turnover, it must adopt its own operating system.
As can be seen from the above figures, e-commerce is already very large, and it is still growing. However, as an important part of e-commerce, offline transactions are impacting online transactions.
The Internet is profoundly changing consumers' consumption behavior. At present,15 of Americans will check the lowest price of electronic products online before going to the store to save even a dime. Even more surprising, three-quarters of Americans think of the Internet first when buying a new car. Even though the final transaction may still be carried out in the traditional way-buying from a dealer, they will learn all kinds of information about the car they want to buy online and choose the best dealer recommended online. Sometimes, they will go to relevant websites to print pictures of cars they are interested in for reference.
The chart provided by Mr. Forrester, a senior survey consultant, shows that half of the 600 million consumers in Europe use the method of inquiring about commodity information online and then buying offline (see figure 1). Of course, different countries have different consumption habits. For example, in Italy and Spain, the number of people who check online and then buy offline is about twice that of those who buy directly online. But in Germany and Britain, the two countries with the most developed networks, the two are basically the same. Forrester said that people usually start with some simple products, such as DVD discs, and then transition to more complex products. Used cars are one of the fastest growing areas in the United States.
If the website's customer guide is successful, people seem willing to use online shopping. Now the website is becoming more and more intelligent, providing more and more practical services to customers. In the near future, the proportion of online shopping in people's total shopping will definitely increase greatly.
Third, the role of the website.
Website construction is of great significance to business activities. A company that doesn't pay attention to website construction is tantamount to committing suicide in a business war. Even if the company does not engage in online transactions, the website will become a portal for people to understand its trademarks, products and services. In cyberspace, a worthless website often indicates a worthless company, which will only be mercilessly abandoned under the click of people's mouse. Therefore, a successful company must build an excellent website to ensure that it can appear in the forefront of every search result.
For many users, search websites are usually their entrance to the Internet. The world-famous search engine has entered the contemporary dictionary: people will say that it "googled" a company, a product or a plumber. This kind of search behavior has also become one of the most effective advertising channels on the Internet. And it is also the best way to get close to teenagers, because they spend far more time on the Internet than watching TV. All these show that online search has become the next battlefield of the Internet. For example, Google relies on its excellent search function to compete with Yahoo. And Microsoft.
Another suggestion is that companies had better publish their products and services on websites that already have quite a few visitors. Ebay, Yahoo and Amazon are becoming huge platforms for many companies to display their products in some aspects, but if a company wants to participate in this platform, it must withstand the fierce price war. Online consumers often compare online quotations with local stores, and even compare them with sales prices in other countries. Even if online sales are banned overseas, a large number of owners will actively operate based on website sales.
Mohanbir Sawhney, a professor of science and technology at Kellogg School of Management in Chicago, said that we should be aware of the changes in consumer shopping behavior today. For example, if someone wants to buy a digital camera, he will first go to a nearby store for inspection. After selecting the model, he will say to the salesman, "I'll think about it and come back later." Then he will go home and check the lowest price of this model of camera online, and then order it online. So in this sense, consumers no longer follow the traditional shopping process.
Fourth, consumers in the era of e-commerce
Transparent prices on the Internet not only make consumers a strong group, but also make them a "fickle" group. If they don't like a website, they will leave without hesitation. "The Internet is the most selfish place in the world", Yahoo! "People can use the Internet anytime, anywhere, no matter what they want to do," said Daniel Rosensweig, CEO.
Like Yahoo! As a result, there are not a few websites dedicated to finding and providing all kinds of information that customers need (Yahoo! It is said that there are two every month. 600 million people). What consumers are most concerned about is the most detailed catalogue and its quotation. Jeff Bezos, CEO of Amazon, said, "The foundation of our business is the trust of consumers". Amazon is now a world-famous book distributor, and it used to sell other products online, such as health products, jewelry and selected foods. Bezos believes that they can even sell anything except the big and cheap goods in the warehouse supermarket, which is why millions of consumers choose Yi Bei.
Even so, no one thinks that traditional shops can disappear, especially in those areas with more "speculation". Many "brick+concrete" stores still have extraordinary achievements, such as the grocery market, but the audio-visual and tourism markets have really been impacted by the Internet. As the largest travel agency on the Internet, the owner of Expedia Travel Company claims that the proportion of Americans booking travel services online will rise from 20% to 50% in the future. Mr. Bezos estimates that in the next decade, the online retail industry will reach 10- 15% of the total retail sales, which will profoundly change people's consumption concept.
In the face of fierce online marketing, how will traditional shopping malls respond? Mr. michael dell, the founder of Dell Computer Company, has been leading the direct selling market of personal computers. He believes that computers can only be sold as antiques in the exhibition hall through sales stores at all levels, and the direct selling method adopted by Dell has received good results. Recently, Apple and Sony's specialty stores plan to display all the products of this brand that can be found online, which is also one of the countermeasures. In the long run, online and offline sales methods will also be integrated, and traditional stores will also become a collection of various sales methods: printed catalogues, home TV direct sales, TV ordering, and e-commerce websites. But from the consumer's point of view, ordering from the internet is still their most willing way of consumption.
The biggest advantage of online sales lies in its low price. This is because there is no multi-layer transfer of online goods, so there is no multi-layer price increase. They generally go directly from manufacturers to consumers. If consumers can buy the lowest-priced goods and get the best service online, will anyone go shopping elsewhere?
Of course, consumers may face fraud when shopping online. However, with the development of Internet, the speed of commodity information transmission is further accelerated. In addition, many websites offering the same kind of goods will inevitably consider their own long-term development, compete to provide accurate and detailed commodity information and prices, and provide quality services to seize more users. Therefore, the online market will definitely become more and more perfect.
Perfect market
May 6, 2004 5438+03
Excerpt from The Economist print edition.
Paul Machilli said that e-commerce is maturing, but not in the way predicted in the bubble era.
When the technology bubble burst in 2000, the crazy valuation of internet companies disappeared and many enterprises closed down. With the encouragement of more and more Internet users, survivors try to surf the Internet as much as possible. Now, the valuation has risen again, and some internet companies have begun to make real profits, but the business community has become more cautious about the potential of the Internet. Interestingly, the crazy prediction made at the peak of prosperity-that is, most of the world economy will be transferred to cyberspace-is becoming a reality in one way or another.
Raw data is only part of the story. According to the U.S. Department of Commerce, online retail sales in the world's largest market increased by 26% last year, reaching 55 billion dollars. This sounds like a lot of money, but it only accounts for 1.6% of the total retail sales. Most people still buy most things in the beautiful traditional "physical" world.
However, the data of the Ministry of Commerce only cover some retail businesses. For example, they exclude online travel service, which is one of the most successful and fastest growing industries in e-commerce. Interactive, which owns expedia.com and hotels.com, sold tourism products worth $10 billion last year-and it has many competitors, not only from airlines, hotels and car rental companies, all of which are increasingly sold online.
These figures also do not include financial services, ticket sales agents, the porn industry (according to Adult Video News, a trade magazine, the porn industry in the United States was worth $2 billion last year), online dating and a series of other activities, from root hunting to gambling (worth about $6 billion globally). They also ignored the purchase in the gray market, such as online pharmacies. Last year, Americans bought 700 million dollars of prescription drugs at reduced prices from the Canadian border, and a large part of them were thought to be paid by online pharmacies.
Tip of the iceberg
There's more. The data of the Ministry of Commerce include the fees earned by online auction websites, but not the value of the goods sold: the transaction volume of Yi Bei, the largest online auctioneer, reached an astonishing $24 billion last year. By definition, they also do not include goods worth billions of dollars bought and sold by enterprises connected with each other through the Internet. Some B2B services are proprietary; For example, Wal-Mart told its suppliers that if they want to be part of its annual turnover of $250 billion, they must use their own systems.
So e-commerce is already very big, and it will become even bigger. However, compared with the great influence of the Internet on offline transactions, the actual value of online transactions at present is dwarfed. This influence is becoming an indispensable part of e-commerce.
First of all, the Internet is profoundly changing the behavior of consumers. One in five customers who walk into Sears Department Store to buy electrical appliances will investigate their purchases online-most people will know exactly what they intend to pay. Even more surprising, three-quarters of Americans began to buy new cars online, although most people would eventually buy them from traditional dealers. The difference is that these customers come to the exhibition hall with information about cars and the best deals. Sometimes, they even use computers to print out the specific vehicles in the dealer's inventory that they want to buy.
According to a study by Forrester, a research consulting firm, half of the 60 million consumers in Europe who have internet connections have investigated prices and details online and bought products offline (see chart 1). Different countries have different habits. For example, in Italy and Spain, people are twice as likely to shop offline as online after searching online. But in Britain and Germany, the two most developed Internet markets, this figure is equally divided. Forrester said that people began to buy simple and predictable products online, such as DVDs, and then gradually turned to more complex products. Used car sales are now one of the largest online growth areas in the United States.
If high customer satisfaction can be used as a reference, people seem to like shopping online. Websites are doing more and more clever things to serve and entertain their customers, and it seems that they will occupy a larger share of people's total expenditure in the future.
Why is the website important?
This has a great impact on business. A company that ignores websites may be committing commercial suicide. Websites are increasingly becoming the gateway to companies' brands, products and services-even if companies don't sell them online. A useless website means a useless company, and a competitor only needs a click of the mouse. However, if people can't find it, even the coolest websites will disappear in cyberspace, so companies must ensure that they appear in the forefront of Internet search results.
For many users, search websites are now their entrance to the Internet. The most famous search engine has entered the dictionary: people say that they have "googled" a company, a product or their plumber. Search business has also developed into one of the most effective forms of advertising on the Internet. This is already the best way to reach some consumers: teenagers and young people spend more time online than watching TV. All this means that as Google resists the challenge from Yahoo, search is becoming the next big battlefield of the Internet. And Microsoft.
Another way to attract attention online is to provide goods and services through a large website that already has a lot of traffic. Ebay, Yahoo! And Amazon are becoming huge trading platforms for other companies. But to participate, a company's products must withstand fierce price competition. When people check prices online and compare them with those in local commercial streets, they are likely to peek at what customers in other countries are paying. Even though websites are forbidden to ship goods abroad, many entrepreneurs based on the Internet are willing to do so.
Mohan Bir Bursaux, a technology professor at Kellogg School of Management in Chicago, said: What is happening here is arbitrage between different sales channels. For example, someone may use the internet to study digital cameras, but they will go to a photo studio to demonstrate it in person. "I'll think about it," they will tell the sales assistant. When they get home, they will use search engines to find the lowest price and then buy it online. In this way, Professor Sonny said, consumers are "deconstructing the buying process". They separate the product information from the transaction itself.
Everything about me
What makes Internet consumers so powerful is not only price transparency; This is also the reason why the internet makes them changeable. If they don't like a website, they will leave quickly. "The Internet is the most selfish environment in the world," said Daniel Rosenweig, chief operating officer of Yahoo. "People want to use the Internet at any time, in any way and for any purpose."
Yahoo! Google is not alone in defining its strategy as finding out the needs of customers (260 million unique users per month) and then trying to meet their needs. What they want first is a better understanding of products and prices. Jeff Bezos, CEO of Amazon, said: "We run our business based on this belief." . Amazon is famous for books, but it expanded to sell many other things a long time ago; Its latest investments include health products, jewelry and food. Mr. Bezos thinks he can sell most things except cheap and bulky items such as garden rakes. So do the millions of people who use Yi Bei.
However, no one thinks that real stores are over, especially those that operate in niche markets. Many physical bookstores and flea markets still live a good life. But many record stores and travel agencies may go through a more difficult period. Erik Blachford, the head of IAC's tourism department and the boss of Expedia, the largest Internet travel agency, believes that online travel bookings in the United States may rapidly rise from 20% to more than half. Mr. Bezos estimates that in the next decade, online retailers may get 10- 15% of retail sales. This will represent a huge shift in spending.
How will traditional shops respond? Michael dell, the founder of Dell, led the PC market by selling directly to consumers, and always thought that many stores would become showrooms. There are signs of change in the commercial street. The latest Apple and Sony stores are designed to showcase products, with full expectation that many people will buy them online. To some extent, the online and offline worlds may merge. Multi-channel sales may include a combination of traditional stores, printed catalogues, TV shopping channels, telephone ordering services and e-commerce websites. But usually, the website will encourage customers to place orders.
One of the biggest commercial advantages of the Internet is to reduce transaction costs, which usually translates directly into low prices for consumers. So, if you can find the lowest price online and people like the service they get, why do they go elsewhere to buy it?
One reason may be convenience; The other is the fear of fraud, which is the biggest threat to online trade. However, as long as the Internet continues to transmit price and product information quickly, cheaply and safely, e-commerce will continue to grow. More and more companies will have to assume that consumers will know exactly where to buy the best deal. This market has the potential to become perfect.