2009 will be remembered by history. This year, the world economy suffered the first great recession after the war, and the whole world was looking for the development channel of economic "stabilization and recovery". This year is a challenging year for all walks of life around the world. Of course, for the diamond industry, 2009 is also a challenging and significant year.
If we want to sum up the state of the global diamond industry in 2009 in one sentence, then one sentence should be: "This year, the global diamond industry, from diamond mines to diamond jewelry retail stores, is struggling. Through this economic crisis, the diamond industry is realizing that' unity is strength' and' collective responsibility' can guarantee the long-term development in the future. "
1. Production of diamond mines
The production of diamond mines in 2009 is the most difficult link in the whole diamond industry chain. Since the economic crisis, almost all diamond mines have felt the meaning of "winter" for the first time: mines have to reduce production, and as a diamond mine with huge investment and high risk, the basic operation of the mine is still normal even if it is in a semi-stop or stop production state. Fortunately, as the front end of the diamond industry chain, most diamond production enterprises and diamond mines have successfully passed the most difficult time.
2009 China Jewelry and Jade Jewelry Guide
The mining of diamonds has its own characteristics. As one of the rarest natural mineral resources on the earth, the exploration cost of diamonds is getting higher and higher, and the overall production capacity is insufficient. While the demand for diamonds is increasing, due to various factors, the supply of diamonds is difficult to increase synchronously, which leads to the overall and long-term tension between supply and demand. From 2002 to 2008, the global annual diamond output increased by about 10% on average. The long period of investigation, evaluation and development of diamond mines is the main reason for the slow growth of diamond production. At present, among the 5,450 kinds of kimberlite geological structural rocks in the world, less than 1% have commercial mining value, and the average cost of finding a diamond mine with mining value is $500 million. High exploration risk and long-term investment restrict the increase of diamond mining output. It takes at least five years of preparation for the new mine to be put into production, so it is difficult to increase the supply quickly in the short term. In the past 15 years, no new large-scale primary diamond mines have been found in the world, but the global diamond market demand is increasing at an average annual rate of 10%, and the diamond price is increasing at a rate of 3% ~ 5% every year, especially for high-quality diamonds. The imbalance between supply and demand of diamonds will persist for a long time.
Before September 2008, the global economy developed rapidly and the diamond industry advanced by leaps and bounds. In 2008, a total of16,2910,000 carats were mined in global diamond mines. Diamond mines from 23 countries and regions, among which countries with a production of over 30 million carats include the Democratic Republic of Congo, Russia and Botswana, countries with a production of over 30 million carats to100000 carats include Canada, Australia and South Africa, and countries with a production of100000 carats include Angola and Namibia.
Since the economic crisis in 2008, the whole diamond industry, especially diamond mining companies, has experienced a long night.
Figure1-2-1Output of some diamond mining groups from June to September 2009.
Throughout 2009, almost all diamond mining groups and diamond mines adopted an extremely cautious attitude. First of all, diamond companies headed by De Beers Group, including mining groups such as Alrosa, Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton, all require their mines to control and appropriately reduce the production and mining of diamonds. Secondly, re-plan the future development of the mine. Third, maintain the stability of mine operation.
In the first three quarters of 2009, the diamond mining volume of De Beers Group decreased by 60% compared with that of 2008, and only about 6.5438+0.5 million carats of rough diamonds were produced. It is estimated that the total amount of diamond mining in the whole year is only about half of that in 2008. In the first half of 2009, almost all the major diamond mines of De Beers Group were in a state of "semi-suspension". It is reported that Diavik mine will produce 5.6 million carats of rough diamonds in 2009, while the mine mined 9 million carats of diamonds in 2008. BHP Billiton expects to produce 3.22 million carats of rough diamonds in 2009, down from 3.35 million carats in 2008. From June 5, 2008 to September 2009, Rio Tinto mined 2.45 million carats of diamonds, a decrease of 49% compared with 2008. Harry Winston Group mined 300,000 carats of diamonds in the first three quarters of 2009, a decrease of 67% compared with the same period in 2008. From June 5438 to September 2009, the sales of rough diamonds in Alrosa was about $780 million, which was 22% lower than that in 2008.
It is reported that Diavik Mine will moderately increase the diamond production in 20 10, and the planned rough diamond production in 20 10 will reach 7.8 million carats. The Jwaneng mine in Botswana is a star mine in the diamond industry and is known as the "Cut -8" project. The mining life of this mine will be extended from 20 17 to 2024. Therefore, in the next 15 years, De Beers Group will invest more than US$ 3 billion in this mine, and it is estimated that it can produce about 95 million rough diamonds.
2. Supply of rough diamonds
Since the global economic crisis, especially in the fourth quarter of 2008, the whole diamond industry has been full of pessimism. Obviously, with the expansion of the economic crisis, the uncertainty of the future of the economy dominated by the United States has increased. As a "non-necessity", diamond jewelry is the first to be cut in people's budget expenditure, and the diamond retail market has fallen sharply. If the diamond industry does not take active and effective measures to reduce market supply, it will inevitably lead to sharp fluctuations in diamond prices, which will not only affect consumers' confidence in diamonds, but also lead to instability of millions of employees. Therefore, most rough diamond suppliers have adopted an active control strategy-reducing the supply of rough diamonds to the market, so as to maintain the balance between supply and demand in the market, maintain the stability of diamond prices, maintain the confidence of consumers and maintain the long-term stability of the industry.
Figure1-2-2 DTC rough diamond supply and its changes in 2008 and 2009.
As can be seen from Figure 1-2-2, compared with 2008, the supply of DTC rough diamonds decreased by 47% in the whole year. Especially in 2009, the first three fairs of 10 only supplied less than 30% of the first three fairs in 2008. In April and May, as the world economy bottomed out and rebounded, emerging market economies began to stop falling and rebound, and the supply of DTC rough diamonds began to increase moderately. The diamond consumption market of BRIC countries, represented by China and India, took the lead in getting out of the trough and began to show positive growth momentum, which brought confidence to the global diamond industry, especially diamond mining enterprises. In 2009, the sales of rough diamonds in Alrosa, Russia, was $26,543.83 billion, including $920 million in government acquisition.
Due to the decline of demand, retail sales and consumer confidence index in the retail market dominated by the United States, the global diamond industry has adopted a cautious supply policy under the influence of "collective responsibility", thus ensuring the basic balance between supply and demand in the entire diamond industry chain to a great extent. Therefore, in 2009, the diamond rough market was generally in a stable state. Relevant statistics show that during the period of 1 ~ 10 in 2009, the import of rough diamonds in the United States decreased by 68% compared with the same period in 2008, which was only $230 million, while the export of rough diamonds in the United States decreased by 55% to1600,000. During 2009 1 ~ 1 1, Belgium imported 5.89 billion US dollars of rough diamonds, down 43% compared with the same period in 2008. During this period, Belgium exported 6.55 billion US dollars of rough diamonds, a decrease of 37% compared with the same period in 2008. In Israel, the total value of diamond imports in 20091~1period was 4.33 billion US dollars, which was 48% lower than the same period in 2008. During this period, Israel's exports of finished diamonds reached US$ 3.62 billion, while those of rough diamonds reached US$ 65.438+74 billion, down by 465.438+0% and 47% respectively compared with the same period in 2008. However, 2009 165438+ 10 became the most active month for diamond trading in Israel. In that month, compared with the same period in 2008, Israel's rough diamond exports increased by 144%, reaching 256 million US dollars, while its finished diamond exports increased by 49%, reaching 520 million US dollars. India seems to be less affected by the financial crisis. During the period from 1 to 1 in 2009, India's rough diamond imports were $5 1 billion, down 43% compared with the same period in 2008, while its rough diamond exports were $570 million, down 2 1%. India's exports of finished diamonds decreased by 17% to1/0.8 billion US dollars, while imports of finished diamonds decreased by 8.4% to 5.67 billion US dollars in the same period.
3. Diamond wholesale market
Due to the proactive measures taken to stabilize the market from mining to rough diamond supply, the stability of the wholesale market of finished diamonds and the relative stability of the wholesale price of finished diamonds have been largely maintained. According to IDEX analysis, since September 2008, the wholesale price of finished diamonds has indeed fluctuated and declined, but since May 2009, the wholesale price of finished diamonds has stabilized and gradually picked up.
Figure 1-2-3 finished diamond price index
The United States is the largest diamond consumption market in the world. Since the economic crisis in 2008, as the initiator of this financial crisis, the state of the diamond wholesale market in the United States reflects the twists and turns of the whole world diamond wholesale market. In the first quarter of 2009, the United States imported only $2.36 billion of finished diamonds, down 52% from the first quarter of 2008. The recovery began in the second and third quarters, but in the first three quarters of 2009, the diamond import volume was 8.73 billion US dollars, which was 44% lower than the total import volume in the first three quarters of 2008.
Figure1-2-4 In the first three quarters of 2009, the import of finished diamonds in the US market increased.
Figure1-2-5 In the first three quarters of 2009, the decline of finished diamond imports in the US market slowed down (compared with 2008).
Figure1-2-6 The number of carats of finished diamonds imported into the US market increased in the first three quarters of 2009.
Figure1-2-7 In the first three quarters of 2009, the decline rate of carats of finished diamonds imported into the US market slowed down (compared with 2008).
4. Diamond retail market
The diamond retail market in 2009 can be described as "several happy families and several sad families". To be sure, China market and Indian market will maintain double-digit growth in 2009, but the performance of American market, Japanese market and European market, which account for half of the global diamond and jewelry retail market, is not optimistic. Therefore, it is an indisputable fact that the global diamond and jewelry retail market will be smaller in 2009 than in 2008.
As a jewelry retail enterprise with nearly 1500 retail stores in the United States and more than 500 retail stores in the United Kingdom, Signet's retail performance can basically reflect the state of traditional jewelry retail in the United States. In the first quarter of 2009, the total retail sales of Signet in the United States and Britain was $760 million, down 7% and 8% compared with the same period of 2008, reaching $765,438+billion. In the third quarter, the retail sales began to pick up, reaching $630 million, down only 3% compared with the same period of 2008.
Tiffany's jewelry retail performance also recovered rapidly. In the first quarter of 2009, the sales were $523 million, $6.1300 million in the second quarter and $600 million in the third quarter, with year-on-year changes of -22%,-16% and -3% respectively.
Figure 1-2-8 Changes in retail sales of stamp jewelry
Blue Nile, which represents online sales, is expected to see a slight increase in online sales in 2009 compared with 2008 after the year-on-year decline in sales in the first quarter of 2009.
Figure 1-2-9 Online Sales Performance of Blue Nile
Since June 5438+February, 2009, De Beers Group has carried out large-scale marketing activities in the American market and launched the EverlonTM diamond knot series, which injected strong impetus into the most important diamond and jewelry sales season in 2009 and accelerated the recovery of the retail market.
The cold winter is coming, and we have reason to believe that the diamond industry that has survived the financial crisis will surely usher in a more competitive and sustainable future. As Gareth Penny, CEO of De Beers Group, said not long ago, "The global demand for diamonds has been growing steadily for many years. At present, the global diamond market is moving from recession to recovery. This recovery trend is expected to continue for some time, especially in fast-growing emerging markets such as China and Indian. At the same time, in the past 65,438+00 years, there is no important diamond source found and put into production in the world. Therefore, the future demand growth of diamonds and the shortage of diamonds will still exist for a long time. "