1, the attitude of central banks towards gold reserves and their trading behavior. The buying and selling of gold reserves directly affects the balance of the gold market, so it has a great influence on the price of gold. 1On May 7, 1999, when the Bank of England announced that it would reduce its gold reserve from 7 15 tons to 300 tons, the price of gold began to fall from $287.65438+$00. On July 6th, the Bank of England auctioned 25 tons of gold for the first time, and then the IMF also indicated that it planned to sell 3 10 tons of gold, which once caused an uproar in the gold market and made the price of gold worse. However, the signing and successful renewal of "washington accord" signed in 1999 greatly influenced the attitudes and trading actions of central banks in various countries, and promoted the recovery of gold prices.

2. The level of inflation rate. Gold has long been a means to prevent inflation. During the period of 1974- 1975, 1978- 1980, due to the serious inflation, the currencies held by people depreciated relatively. It shook people's confidence in the currency, set off a general wave of buying gold, and the price of gold rose rapidly. During this period, gold holders successfully prevented risks. During the period of 1997 when the Asian financial microcomputer was built, the price of gold expressed in local currency rose obviously due to the obvious currency depreciation and price increase in relevant countries or regions.

3. The influence of exchange rate. The influence of exchange rate on gold price can be analyzed from two aspects: on the one hand, gold is usually priced in dollars. If the exchange rate of the US dollar rises, the price of gold expressed in US dollars will naturally fall, and vice versa. On the other hand, the exchange rate also affects the gold price by affecting the capital flow between financial assets. Generally speaking, when the US dollar exchange rate is bullish, the funds invested in US dollar assets will increase sharply, the gold market will be relatively cold, and the price of gold will also fall. On the contrary, gold will be sought after and its price will rise. We can see this clearly from the changing trend of gold price. For example, 1985- 1987, the dollar depreciated by 40% against the Swiss franc, while the price of gold rose from $300 to $500 per ounce. Another example is the recent sharp rise in the price of gold, which has a lot to do with the relative weakening of the US dollar exchange rate.

4. The impact of oil prices. When the oil price is at a low price, people's expectations of inflation are low, and the pressure to buy or invest in gold is reduced, so is the price of gold, and vice versa. The above relationship exists between the price of gold and the price of oil. At present, due to the unstable global economic recovery, the United States has taken military action against Iraq to rebuild Iraq and a series of problems arising from it. The supply of crude oil is facing the risk of shortage, which has prompted the oil price to rise. In March 2005, the futures price of NYMEX crude oil exceeded $57/ton, and the soaring crude oil price triggered people's worries about inflation and supported the rise of gold price.

5. The influence of the stock market. The stock market is a barometer of the economy. When the economy is running well, investors are more willing to make profits by investing in the stock market, so when the stock market rises, the price of gold tends to be weak, while the economy is running poorly. When the stock market falls, the price of gold generally shows an upward trend.

6. Political factors. Gold is considered as the safest investment way to prevent the risk of unrest and war. Tension in the international situation often leads people to snap up gold, and the price of gold also rises accordingly. This characteristic of gold is unmatched by general currency, and it is also an important reason why countries still attach great importance to gold reserves. For example, the American hostage crisis in Iran at the end of 1979 and the Soviet Union's invasion of Afghanistan before February 26th all pushed up the price of gold. By the close of 1980, the price of gold in London was as high as $800 per ounce, and the gold in new york was that day. For another example, the international political situation is still relatively tense recently. Although the Iraq war has ended, the threat of terrorist attacks still exists, and there is also a nuclear conflict between the United States and North Korea, which has pushed up the price of gold to some extent.

Basic characteristics of the future trend of gold price. On the whole, at present, the price of gold has entered a historical stage of stable upward fluctuation, and it is unlikely that the long-term price of gold will fall sharply. From 65438 to 0999, the price of gold dropped sharply to $254 per ounce, which once caused panic in the international community. Judging from the current situation, it is unlikely that the price of gold will fall to the low of 1999 for a long time to come.

First of all, due to the decline of gold production in the future, it is difficult to see an obvious oversupply of gold. World gold production has also entered the trend of negative growth year after year. Gold producers in the United States and Canada are facing a bleak year of capital shortage, layoffs and asset sales. Of course, rising gold prices will also prompt gold enterprises to increase production. In addition, the manufacturing industry, electronics industry and jewelry industry have controlled the selling of gold, and gold has the conditions for multiple investment choices.

Secondly, the international political turmoil and the impact of the US subprime mortgage crisis have made the growth of gold investment demand a new bright spot in gold consumption. In recent years, the volatility of US stocks is fierce, coupled with the depreciation of the US dollar, a large amount of funds have been withdrawn from US stocks and foreign exchange markets and transferred to the gold market. The value-preserving and hedging function of gold is once again favored by people. In order to preserve the value, investors from all over the world have increased their purchases of gold, which has changed the situation that gold investment has been deserted in recent years and made the price of gold climb higher and higher. The gold market is only a small part of the global financial market, but it is a refuge for investors who tend to be "hard assets" during the global turmoil, which makes international hot money choose the gold market.

Investors' strategy of investing in gold

1. Gold should be regarded as an important investment channel. The establishment of the gold market provides new investment and hedging channels for enterprises and residents. Different from securities investment, the purchase of gold is based on physical objects, no matter how low the price of gold is, it is valuable, especially when the stock market and bond market are in a downturn, the investment value of gold will be highlighted. Since 2000, especially after the 9. 1 1 incident, European and American stock markets have been falling continuously, and the price of gold has risen sharply for five consecutive years, and the attraction of investing in gold has begun to appear. Therefore, as a new investment channel, gold in the future is expected to be favored by investors.

2, pay attention to grasp the price trend of gold and the degree of preservation. As an investment product, panic is generally not as good as the stock market, but because of its stable value, it is often used as a hedging tool. Judging from the performance in the market, the price of gold is always contrary to the trend of the stock market. When faced with huge economic fluctuations and the decline of investment markets such as the stock market, we can avoid financial risks by buying gold. When the economic situation improves and the stock market develops steadily, funds tend to gather in the stock market with higher returns, and the price of gold will fall, but it can still be used as a low-risk choice in the portfolio. At present, although China's annual gold production and sales volume reaches about 200 tons, it is the fourth largest gold producer in the world, but compared with the international gold market, it only accounts for a small proportion. Therefore, price fluctuations are easier to follow the trend of the international market. In recent years, China has basically achieved the integration with the international market price by opening the gold market. The long-term slow upward trend of gold price determines its function of maintaining value, which can ensure that people's existing income will not be swallowed up by long-term inflation; At the same time, the constant fluctuation of gold price determines its investment value, and people can still use this fluctuation to "buy and sell" to earn the difference. However, it should be noted that the rise of currency interest rate will lead to the fall of gold price. Because the opportunity cost of storing gold will be high when the currency interest rate is quite high, investors are more willing to buy assets that can generate interest than gold. The disadvantage of buying gold is that storing gold can't bring interest.

3. The motive of investing in gold should be mainly to preserve and increase the value. The ideal function of gold is to preserve its value, but it can also increase its value. Although the return on investing in stocks is high, it is matched with its high risk. Of course, the key to choosing stocks or gold lies in investors' investment demand and risk tolerance. Personal investment in "paper gold" is similar to foreign exchange trading. Investors can decide whether to buy or sell according to the bank quotation and earn the difference. The only difference is that buying and selling foreign exchange has deposit interest. Gold has no interest, and so does physical gold. Although it can preserve the value, gold has no interest. But gold is hard currency after all, and investors in any country and era agree with the value of gold. This is hard to compare with stocks or coins. In a sense, gold can be compared to life insurance. The similarity between the two is that people buy life insurance, which has important subjective value-to gain inner peace and know that if misfortune happens, their families will rely on it. Gold can also give you peace of mind and protect your assets from financial disasters. The advantage of gold in diversified investment structure reveals a convincing logic. However, another feature of gold is that life insurance cannot be compared. After the insurance payment, the premium will be paid to the insurance company. As long as there is no loss, the fund will be owned by the insurance company, that is, the delivery of the premium is one-way. Investing in gold is different, and the value of gold held is very high.

4. Choose the appropriate investment mode according to the development stage of the gold market. There will be a process for China gold market to launch products, and it is necessary to pay attention to investing according to the state of products launched at each stage; In the short term, the Shanghai Gold Exchange will mainly provide trading platforms and related services for spot gold trading. Obviously, the participants in the initial stage will mainly be some institutional investors, mainly engaged in gold trading or investment related to actual demand. The focus of resident investors is to understand the knowledge of gold trading and prepare for investing in gold. When individual gold investment products, such as gold passbook and gold nugget products, are launched, it provides a good way for individual investors to participate in investment. For domestic investors, it is impossible to invest or hedge through gold futures trading in the short term. As mentioned above, the introduction of forward, futures and futures trading will have a process, when investors can make a more comprehensive investment or hedging in the gold market.

Don't blindly hoard gold ornaments because of the expectation of rising gold price. At present, gold ornaments in the domestic market are all processed. Generally, factories and businesses spend the cost on the style and technology of gold ornaments, which increases the added value, so the value-preserving function is relatively reduced. However, many consumers who buy gold ornaments also said that the main purpose of buying gold ornaments is decoration, and the view of preserving value is only relative to other precious stones, artificial and silver ornaments.

6. Pay attention to the exchange rate risk of gold investment. In the long run, the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate will have a certain impact on domestic gold investment and production. At present, the RMB exchange rate is pegged to the US dollar, and international gold is also denominated in US dollars. The exchange rate risk of investing in gold is reflected in: once the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar fluctuates greatly, domestic gold investment will face certain risks, which is different from the usual risks. For example, under normal circumstances, the depreciation of the RMB against the US dollar is risky; For gold investment, the appreciation of RMB against the US dollar is generally risky. In the case of devaluation, the same amount of gold represents more RMB. Although the RMB exchange rate will remain stable for a long time in the future, we should also pay attention to the risks that exchange rate risks may bring to gold investment. Of course, it should also be noted that the risks mentioned here are in terms of the closed gold market. Judging from the international gold market, there is no such exchange rate risk. Since gold itself has intrinsic value and is priced in US dollars, the appreciation or depreciation of RMB against US dollars will not affect the price expressed in US dollars.

The analysis of the selection of gold investment varieties involved in gold trading requires investors to master the characteristics of gold trading and the characteristics of various trading varieties. The correct choice of gold investment varieties is undoubtedly the prerequisite for investors' success.

1, gold bars and nuggets. Gold bars and nuggets are the most common investment varieties in gold investment. As far as investing in gold bars and nuggets is concerned, although some manufacturing and processing fees will be charged to investors, such fees are generally relatively low. Only some commemorative gold bars and nuggets will have higher processing costs.

2. invest in gold coins. Generally speaking, investing in gold coins is not much different from investing in gold bars and nuggets. When buying and selling investment gold coins, investors should pay attention to whether there is legal tender denomination on the gold coins. In general, pure gold coins with denominations are more valuable than pure gold coins without denominations. Advantages of investing in gold coins When investing, the size and weight are not uniform, investors have more choices, a small amount of money can also be used for investment, and the liquidity of investing in gold coins is also very good, so there is no problem of cashing out. The main disadvantage of investing in gold coins is that they are more difficult to preserve than gold bars and nuggets. For example, pure gold coins can't collide and deform, so try to keep the original packaging, otherwise it will be difficult to sell and realize, and so on.

3. Paper gold. Paper gold (gold passbook) will be an important way for individuals to invest in gold in the future, and it is also a popular investment method in the world. Investors can not only avoid the risk of storing gold, but also buy and sell gold through gold accounts. Moreover, the capital requirements for investors are also flexible, which is a better investment method.

4. Gold derivatives. With the gradual maturity of fire hiding, the gold market is expected to gradually introduce gold forward, gold futures and even gold options. For ordinary investors, the investment should be moderate, and the forward or option should be basically consistent with their own production capacity or demand or risk tolerance. At present, there are not many gold option markets in the world, because the investment tactics of gold option trading are numerous and complicated, and it is not easy to master. However, it should be noted that the risk of price changes is too great, so don't use put options easily.

5. Commemorative gold coins. Commemorative gold coins are the key investment targets of coin lovers. Their main advantages are: although commemorative gold coins are also made of pure gold, they have aesthetic characteristics in the art field because of strict material selection, high technical level of process design and manufacturing, and relatively small circulation. Commemorative gold coins are rich in content, pictures and information, so they need better commemorative gold coins than pure gold coins or gold bars.

6. Gold jewelry. From the perspective of investment, investing in gold jewelry is risky. However, gold jewelry has high aesthetic value because of its outstanding practical advantages. Investment in gold products generally do not choose gold jewelry. The main reason is that the price of gold jewelry is quite different when buying and selling, and the price of many gold jewelry is quite different from its intrinsic value. Common gold ornaments are 24K, 18K, 14K, etc. In addition, goldsmiths or jewelers have to make great efforts to process everything from gold nuggets to gold ornaments. After they are produced, they will be taxed as a handicraft, and when they finally reach the buyers, the profits of manufacturers, wholesalers and retailers will be added. These costs must be borne by consumers, and the price will definitely exceed the price of gold itself. Of course, after realizing the use value, gold ornaments can still partially achieve the purpose of investment preservation.

Rational choice of investment portfolio

1, gold can be an important part of the portfolio. As mentioned above, the value of gold in portfolio investment lies in its negative correlation with many investment varieties. Currently; The increase of unstable factors in the investment market and the weakening of the US dollar are all beneficial to the price of gold. In addition, the productivity of gold mines has reached its limit, and the supply of gold has stabilized. Since the second half of 2003, the demand for gold has increased, especially in China, Turkey, India, Japan and the Philippines, which shows that the price of gold is improving. Under the balance of supply and demand, the 20-year bear market in the gold market ended with 1999, and the investment value of gold increased relatively. The correlation between gold and stocks is very low, and it is rarely synchronized with the stock market, which can effectively deal with stock risks, and its trend is often opposite to that of the US dollar. Gold is not any kind of liability, it has no credit risk. Holding a country's bonds, the holder actually holds the debt of the invoice international, and the holder's principal and coupon income will depend on this country, while holding gold has no such concerns at all. During the Iraq war, the United States and other countries frozen some assets in Iraq, which reflected the risk of holding other assets under special circumstances. Gold can reduce the fluctuation of portfolio and can be used as a part of portfolio. The upcoming personal gold investment transaction should open up new investment channels for many funds. Considering the security and liquidity of assets, it is a rational choice to take gold as the investment target and as an integral part of the whole family assets.

2. Gold can be regarded as the basic asset and an important security foundation in the asset structure. Because gold will have both commodity and currency attributes for a long time, buying gold can avoid financial risks. Gold has several advantages: first, it can preserve its value after long-term storage. Gold has long been a reliable store of value because it has all the functions of money. Gold is easy to carry and can be divided, and weight can be used as a unit of value. Second, gold is easy to identify and is a good payment method. Third, gold is not easy to destroy, and the quantity is scarce, so it cannot be produced at will. Gold can be preserved in good years or bad years, good years or bad years. The market is constantly changing, but gold has always maintained its inherent long-term value. Compared with gold, the real value of most currencies and commodities is declining. Therefore, people often buy gold to prevent inflation and currency fluctuations. Therefore, many investors in the world regard gold as the basic asset, making it an important security foundation in the asset structure. Gold is still the ultimate asset. Historically, the currencies of various countries have been constantly changing, but gold has indeed preserved its value and survived to this day. Gold has its own independence, and it is the only monetary asset that does not need to be realized by the government or companies, and there is no risk associated with it. Gold will not be directly affected by any country's economic policies. Gold is not frozen or dishonored like paper money. Some people think that gold is a borderless currency. Because of this, gold has always been an important part of the international reserves of central banks and other government agencies.

3. More and more institutional investors find that gold is an ideal investment method. Recently, more and more institutional investors have found that gold is an ideal investment method. Most investments are mainly concentrated in traditional financial assets such as stocks and bonds. Gold is a completely different asset type in the asset structure. The purpose of investment diversification is to protect the overall asset structure from the impact of certain types of asset value fluctuations. Investors want to reduce the uncertainty of their asset structure. After investing in gold, because the overall risk is reduced, the asset structure becomes more reasonable, in other words, it can resist some unexpected problems. Incorporating gold into diversified asset structure can improve investment efficiency, because the income increases without increasing the risk; The risk is reduced without affecting the income. The risk is the same, and the income has increased; The income is unchanged and the risk is reduced. These characteristics have more practical significance when the financial crisis breaks out. The price of gold is not only negatively related to most assets, but also unstable when the financial situation is turbulent. The more unstable the reverse related assets are, the smaller the risk of capital structure is.

4. As a medium-and long-term investment variety, gold should have an appropriate proportion in the investment portfolio. Before 1980s, gold was always considered as the safest investment tool, and gold investment accounted for a large proportion in most investment portfolios. However, in the 1990s, due to the continuous decline in the price of gold, gold investors suffered losses, prompting people to reduce the proportion of gold in the portfolio. Therefore, the proportion of gold investment in personal portfolio should be appropriate, neither too high nor too low, and can only be determined on the basis of careful study of portfolio risks and returns. Research shows that it is a reasonable choice to invest 5- 10% of personal assets in gold. The advantage of gold in the portfolio shows a convincing logic: investment without gold will no longer be a luxury that investors can afford.

5. The proportion of gold in the reserve structure of various countries (see table 13) has certain reference significance for gold investment portfolio. Today, with the rapid development of international financial integration, electronicization and network technology, the degree of international short-term capital flow has been greatly improved, and new financial derivatives with hedging and hedging functions have emerged one after another, while the role of gold reserves and hedging will be maintained for a long time. This situation shows the value of gold to some extent. Gold is characterized by the integration of commodity functions and financial functions, and the integration of natural attributes and social attributes. At present, gold not only has the functions of storing value, preserving and increasing value, but also has special decorative functions and special industrial uses. The important role of gold in the official reserves of various countries is an important embodiment of the social attribute and social value of gold. The investment value of gold comes from its security, independence and liquidity, as well as its unique value in the portfolio. When a country or region has major economic fluctuations and imbalances, it is the most reliable guarantee asset and the last means for a country to cope with the financial crisis. The continuous innovation of gold investment tools provides important conditions for gold investment. After the establishment of China gold market, relevant investment tools will be gradually introduced, which will certainly provide convenience for domestic investors to invest in gold. In the current period when the supply and demand of gold are basically balanced and the international situation is turbulent, the overall price of gold will tend to rise. Therefore, it should be a rational choice to invest in gold moderately or let gold occupy an appropriate proportion in the portfolio.