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September 27, 2004 16:07 Sina Finance

* Hong Kong's economic development.

In the history of Hong Kong's economic development, it has experienced two economic transformations. Before 1950, Hong Kong's economy was dominated by entrepot trade. From 1950s, Hong Kong began to industrialize, and by 1970, industrial exports accounted for 8 1% of the total exports, which marked the transformation of Hong Kong from a simple entrepot to an industrialized city and realized the first economic transformation of Hong Kong. In the early 1970s, Hong Kong carried out the policy of economic diversification, and finance, real estate, trade and tourism developed rapidly, especially since the 1980s, due to mainland factors.

It has become the most important external factor to promote Hong Kong's economic development. Most of Hong Kong's manufacturing industries moved to the mainland, and various service industries developed rapidly, realizing the second economic transformation from manufacturing to service industries.

Today, Hong Kong has developed into an international trade, finance and shipping center in the Asia-Pacific region. In 2000, Hong Kong's GDP reached1271700 million Hong Kong dollars, and its total trade reached 3,230.7 billion Hong Kong dollars, making it the tenth largest trading entity in the world, with the port container throughput reaching1865,438+10,000 cases, ranking first in the world. Banks 154, and the number of foreign banks ranks third in the world; At the end of 2000, the total market value of Hong Kong's stock market reached HK$ 4,862.5 billion, ranking ninth in the world. The daily turnover of the foreign exchange market reached $79 billion, ranking seventh in the world; By the end of 2000, foreign exchange reserves reached US$ 654.38+007.5 billion, ranking third in the world.

* Advantages of Hong Kong's economic development

The advantage of Hong Kong is that it is an international city with convenient business environment, complete legal system, free trade policy and information flow, fair and open competition, and convenient financial network and communication infrastructure network. In addition, Hong Kong has huge fiscal reserves and foreign exchange reserves, a freely convertible and stable currency, and a simple tax system with low tax rate, which has made Hong Kong one of the more competitive regions.

* Hong Kong's economic structure

With the transfer of Hong Kong's manufacturing industry to the mainland, its scale is constantly expanding. Companies in Hong Kong have gradually developed into production control centers and service centers, which are responsible for fund-raising, procurement, design, promotion and cargo transshipment. Hong Kong's service industry has gradually changed from serving the local manufacturing industry to serving the entire Pearl River Delta region. The proportion of service industry in GDP increased from 67% in 1980 to 85.4% in 1999. Hong Kong's service industry includes wholesale and retail, foreign trade, catering and hotel industry, transportation and communication industry, finance and insurance industry, real estate industry, legal accounting and other professional services. Among the service industries, financial insurance, real estate and commercial services account for the largest proportion, accounting for 26% of local GDP; Followed by wholesale and retail and import and export trade, catering and hotel industry, accounting for 34%; Community, social and personal services account for 20%; The transportation, warehousing and communication industries account for 9%.

Hong Kong's manufacturing industry is dominated by small and medium-sized enterprises and is famous for its flexibility. At present, the manufacturing industry is still dominated by textiles and clothing, and others include toy electronics, printing and publishing, machinery, metal manufacturing, plastics, jewelry, watches and clocks, etc. The manufacturing industry accounts for 5.7% of Hong Kong's GDP.

* Economic ties between Hong Kong and the Mainland.

At the end of 1970s, the reform and opening up in the Mainland provided a broad space for Hong Kong's economic development, and the economic cooperation between the two places gradually developed to a new stage. At present, most of Hong Kong's manufacturing industries have been transferred to the mainland for development, and the scale of enterprises has been expanding. Hong Kong's service industry provides various services for investment and trade activities between the two places and develops rapidly. A large number of mainland enterprises have come to Hong Kong for financing, which has promoted the development of Hong Kong's finance and securities industry. The Mainland is Hong Kong's largest trading partner, and Hong Kong's entrepot trade mainly revolves around the Mainland. In the past 20 years, Hong Kong's foreign trade volume has doubled. Similarly, over the years, as an important external window and intermediary for the mainland to introduce capital, technology and management, Hong Kong has played a very important role in promoting the rapid development of the mainland economy since the reform and opening up. For a long time, the economies of the two places have developed together through mutual promotion.

With China's imminent accession to the WTO, further opening-up and western development will bring new opportunities for Hong Kong's economic development, and its role as a bridgehead will become even more important. Hong Kong's position as an international financial, trade, shipping and information center will be further consolidated and improved, and the trend of economic integration between the two places will continue to strengthen.

Hong Kong's economic situation

In 2000, Hong Kong's economy got rid of the impact of the Asian financial crisis, with GDP growth of 10.5%, the highest growth rate since 1987. The overall stability of the financial market, the sound financial position of the government, the strong growth of import and export trade, the good performance of the shipping industry, the vigorous development of tourism, the decline of unemployment rate and the obvious narrowing of deflation show that the overall economy of Hong Kong has returned to normal. Looking forward to 200 1, Hong Kong's economy will continue to grow. Because the economic aggregate is close to the highest level in history, there are uncertain factors in the external environment, and the economic growth rate will slow down.

* Hong Kong's economic situation in 2000

In 2000, Hong Kong's economy inherited the recovery momentum of the previous year and achieved rapid growth. The overall economy has basically shaken off the impact of the Asian financial crisis and economic activities have returned to normal.

:: Strong GDP growth.

In 2000, Hong Kong's GDP was 6,543.8+0,276,543.8+0.7 billion at current prices and 893.7 billion at constant prices. Compared with 1997 before the Asian financial crisis, it decreased by HK$ 52.2 billion and increased by HK$ 64.7 billion respectively.

Hong Kong's economy grew 14. 1% in the first quarter, 10.8% in the second and third quarters, and 6.8% in the fourth quarter. The annual real economic growth was 10.5%, which was the largest growth rate since 1987. Judging from the components of GDP, consumption, investment and foreign trade have all increased by a large margin.

The recovery of consumer demand has intensified. In 2000, government consumption increased by 2. 1%, and private consumption increased by 5.4%. Private consumption grew more, mainly because the economy improved obviously, the unemployment rate dropped and consumer confidence increased. At the same time, the prosperity of tourism has also stimulated the rise of consumer demand.

Investment stopped falling and rebounded. In 2000, the total amount of local fixed capital was HK$ 327.8 billion, an increase of 8.8%, which stopped falling and rebounded on the basis of 17.4% in 1999. Among them, private investment increased by 12.7%. Private investment rebounded, mainly due to the increase in corporate profits, good business prospects and increased procurement of machinery and equipment.

Foreign trade grew strongly. In 2000, Hong Kong's foreign trade grew strongly driven by the growth of external demand. In terms of visible trade, the total import and export volume for the whole year was HK$ 3,230.7 billion, up by 17.8%. The total export value was HK$ 654.38+057.27 billion, an increase of 654.38+06.6%; The import value was HK$ 654.38+065.80 billion, an increase of 654.38+09%. ? According to statistics, Hong Kong's goods exports to major trading partners such as the United States, Britain, Japan, Germany and Singapore increased by 14%, 15%, 23%, 17% and 19% respectively. The mainland is the largest trading partner of Hong Kong, reaching HK$ 654.38+25.8 million, an increase of 654.38+0.8%.

In terms of intangible trade, service imports were HK$ 654.38+085.5 billion, and service exports were HK$ 334 billion, with a surplus of HK$ 654.38+048.5 billion. After offsetting the visible trade deficit, the consolidated surplus was HK$ 63.2 billion.

* The government is financially sound.

The fiscal year in Hong Kong is from April 1 day of the current year to March 3 1 day of the following year. 1999/2000, the fiscal revenue was HK$ 232.9 billion, the expenditure was HK$ 223 billion, the deficit was HK$ 9.9 billion, and the fiscal reserve was HK$ 444.3 billion.

In 2000/200 1 year, the budget revenue was HK$ 244.2 billion, the budget expenditure was HK$ 250.4 billion and the budget deficit was HK$ 6.2 billion. Due to the decrease in the income from the Exchange Fund and land sales, and the lower-than-expected amount of funds raised by the MTR listing, it is estimated that the fiscal deficit will widen to11400 million Hong Kong dollars.

In order to stimulate the economy and consolidate the achievements of economic recovery, the SAR Government has adopted a series of fiscal policies. For example, allocate special funds to support a number of training and retraining projects to enhance people's employability; Reduce the stamp duty on stock transactions by 10% to maintain the attractiveness of the financial market and enhance Hong Kong's competitiveness in the international financial market; Extend the period of diesel tax reduction and reduce the tax burden; Extend the exemption period of first registration tax for electric vehicles for three years. The proactive fiscal policy has created a good environment for Hong Kong's overall economic recovery. Although there is a small fiscal deficit, the government's financial situation is generally stable.

* The financial market is basically stable.

In 2000, Hong Kong's financial market was basically stable, mainly as follows:

* The linked exchange rate mechanism is functioning normally. The spot exchange rate of the Hong Kong dollar against the US dollar rose slightly from 7.778 in June 5438+1October to 7.798 in February 65438+February. Throughout the year, the exchange rate of the Hong Kong dollar followed the trend of the US dollar and appreciated against all major currencies. Driven by the US interest rate hike, the Bank Association raised interest rates by 0.75 percentage points three times. In order to reduce the risk of currency settlement, the dollar settlement system was launched and the status of an international financial center was further consolidated.

* The banking industry is sound. By the end of 2000, the total assets of the banking industry were HK$ 6,659.2 billion, a slight decrease of 65,438+0.9%. Bank deposits reached HK$ 3,482.3 billion, up by 9.6%; However, bank loans amounted to HK$ 2,462.6 billion, down by 65,438+02.5%, which has been falling for 26 consecutive months. The decline in bank loans is mainly due to the inactivity of the real estate market, the uncertainty of new economic growth points, and cautious bank loans during the economic transition period. The asset quality of banks has improved, and the proportion of bad debts tends to decline, from 9.3% in the first quarter to 7.3% in the fourth quarter. The profitability of major banks is generally good, with an increase of around 20%.

* The stock market is basically operating normally. In 2000, although the Hong Kong stock market experienced ups and downs, its operation was basically normal. Under the cross influence of Hong Kong's economic improvement, external economic growth, China's expectation of joining WTO, the decline of American stock market, high local interest rate and fluctuation of international oil price, the Hang Seng Index fluctuated between 13700 and 18400. It rose to an all-time high on March 28th 18302. Later, affected by the US interest rate hike and the downward adjustment of US stocks, the Hang Seng Index fell repeatedly, reaching its lowest point 13723 on May 26th. Although there was a rebound in summer, the Hang Seng Index fell again under the influence of the soaring international crude oil price and the plunge of US stocks again. At the end of the year, it closed at 15096, down 1 1%. However, the total market value of the stock market reached HK$ 4,862.5 billion, an increase of 2.7%; The total annual turnover was HK$ 365,438+0,365,438+0.9 billion, up 63.2%. The average daily turnover was HK$ 654.38+02.7 billion, an increase of 65.4%.

* The financing function of the stock market has been further enhanced. In 2000, listed companies raised a total of HK$ 448.3 billion in the Hong Kong stock market, including HK$ 290.9 billion raised by Hong Kong-funded enterprises and HK$ 5 18 billion raised by mainland state-owned enterprises.

* The bond market is developing healthily. After the Asian financial crisis, Hong Kong's bond market showed a development trend. In 2000, the issuance of bonds reached HK$ 455.6 billion, an increase of HK$ 396,543.8 billion or 9% over the previous year.

* Deflationary pressure has eased.

Since1998,65438+February, the comprehensive consumer price index has been falling for 25 consecutive months. However, in 2000, the decline narrowed month by month, with a decrease of 5.3% at 5438+ 10 in June and 0.8% at10 in February. The annual decline is 3.7%. Although the deflation situation is difficult to change, the decline has been smaller than last year.

* The unemployment rate is gradually decreasing.

In 2000, although the unemployment rate in Hong Kong was relatively high, it eased. In the month of 65438+ 10, the unemployment rate dropped from the high of 6.2% in the previous year to 5.7%, and then decreased month by month, reaching 4.5% in February of 65438. The number of unemployed people decreased from 20.9% at the beginning of the year to 15. 1%, and the number of employed people in major service industries increased significantly. Unemployment in Hong Kong is mainly concentrated in the construction and manufacturing industries. The main reason is that the economic structure has changed from traditional manufacturing industry to information technology industry, and the working population of traditional industries has been eliminated.

* Healthy development of major industries.

In 2000, major industries in Hong Kong performed well and developed healthily.

* The real estate industry continued to adjust in 2000. In the first seven months, the transaction price of construction was stable, but the number and amount of completed contracts continued to decline; After August, the market conditions improved, the buying and selling prices of buildings rebounded slightly, and the number and amount of contracts signed increased. The number and amount of building sales contracts in the whole year were 85,744 and HK$ 222.5 billion respectively, down by 65,438+02.9% and 65,438+03.3% respectively.

* Tourism In 2000, Hong Kong's tourism industry achieved another success. The number of visitors to Hong Kong reached a record high of 65,438+0,306, an increase of 65,438+05.3%, which was higher than the world average of 65,438+00.8%. After three consecutive years of decline, tourism revenue has increased, reaching HK$ 610.50 billion, an increase of10.6%, which is 9 percentage points higher than the world average. Root? According to the statistics of the World Tourism Organization, the number of tourists in Hong Kong ranks 14 in the world, second only to the mainland in Asia.

* Retail Industry In 2000, Hong Kong's retail industry improved and its volume increased. ? According to statistics, the total retail sales in the whole year reached HK$ 654.38+0867 billion, up by 3.8%, and the sales increased by 8654.38+0%. Driven by economic recovery and tourism growth, the retail volume of almost all major retail categories has increased, followed by automobiles and auto parts, other durable consumer goods, furniture and fixtures, footwear and related products and clothing.

* Shipping Industry Driven by the rapid growth of Hong Kong's import and export trade, Hong Kong's shipping industry has performed well and its position as an international shipping center has been further consolidated. The total number of ships registered in Hong Kong has reached a record high, reaching 107 1 species, which shows that investors are full of confidence in Hong Kong. Container throughput continued to rank first in the world, reaching nearly 18 10TEU, with a year-on-year increase of 1 1.7%. The air passenger and cargo volume has hit record highs, among which, the cargo volume is 224 million, ranking first in the world, with an increase of13.5%; Passenger traffic was 2,300, an increase of 8%.

* Construction and Construction Industry In 2000, the gross nominal value of construction work performed by major contractors in Hong Kong was HK$ 65,438+HK$ 0,265,438+HK$ 800 million, down by 3.6%. Mainly some large-scale residential development projects have been completed, and the progress of new projects is still slow. Among them, the completion of public construction sites is relatively stable, while the completion of private construction sites has dropped significantly. The construction market is still in trouble.

* Telecommunications Industry In 2000, Hong Kong's telecommunications industry changed with each passing day. In terms of wired telephone services, the number of fixed telephone lines reached 390, an increase of 3%; Among them, business users increased by 5%, and residential users increased by 1%. The telephone density per capita is about 58 telephone lines per 100 people, which is one of the highest in Asia. There are more than 40 fax lines, an increase of 5%, accounting for 23% of commercial telephone lines. With the vigorous development of information technology in Hong Kong, the number of Internet users has greatly increased, with the usage reaching11000000 minutes, an increase of 1%. In terms of wireless telephone service, the number of users is 520, an increase of 31%; The mobile phone penetration rate is 77%, which is one of the highest in the world.

In 2000, Hong Kong's economy grew strongly, but the existing problems should not be ignored. First, economic restructuring has a long way to go. It will take time for the innovative technology industry to grow into a new economic growth point. Second, the unemployment rate remains high, deflation still exists, and the internal force of economic development is still insufficient. In addition, Hong Kong's rapid economic growth in 2000 was achieved on a low basis, mainly driven by external demand. As far as the economic aggregate is concerned, it has just reached the level before the Asian financial crisis, so the strong economic growth is accompanied by the recovery growth of economic restructuring.

* Hong Kong Economic Outlook in 2006 5438+0

* World Economic Environment 200 1 year, the world economy will continue to grow, but the growth rate will slow down. After 10 years of rapid growth, the American economy has begun to slow down. In the third quarter of 2000, GDP increased by 2.2%, which was lower than the growth rate of 5.6% in the second quarter, and even dropped to 1. 1% in the fourth quarter. 200 1, 1, and the manufacturing activity index was 4 1.2%, which fell to the lowest point since 10; Corporate profits are constantly running out, and the phenomenon of corporate bankruptcy is increasing; In February, the consumer opinion index was 87.6%, the lowest in seven years. However, because the labor productivity in the United States is still growing, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates three times in June+10 and March in 5438, and the Bush administration will adopt tax reduction policies to stimulate the economy, so the economic prospect of the United States is still unclear.

* The momentum of European economic development tends to improve. Because the European economy is less dependent on the United States, it is not greatly dragged down by the American economy. With the obvious improvement of tax reduction and employment situation in major countries, the stable capital inflow of the euro has increased, the oil price has fallen, the inflationary pressure has slowed down and been controlled, and so on, and a virtuous circle of consumption and investment has emerged. The European Commission predicts that the European economy will grow by 3.2%.

* Japan's economic recovery has slowed down. After experiencing a 10 recession, the Japanese economy showed signs of recovery in the first two quarters of 2000. However, in the third quarter, the economy turned around again, showing negative growth. 200 1 1 The trade deficit appeared for the first time in four years. It shows that Japan's economic recovery is very resistant. At the same time, Japan's political situation is unstable, and huge corporate bad debts cannot be eliminated, which will also hinder economic growth. At present, Japan's economy is at the crossroads of recovery and recession, and the prospect is still unclear.

* Other Asian countries and regions have generally stepped out of the trough of the 2000 financial crisis and gradually recovered. However, due to the economic slowdown in the United States and the unstable political situation in the Philippines, Indonesia and other countries, the economic growth rate will obviously slow down and the demand for Hong Kong will decrease.

* China Mainland will continue to implement a proactive and effective fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy to further expand domestic demand and promote economic growth; The goal of extricating state-owned enterprises from difficulties in three years has been basically realized, and a modern enterprise system has been established and high-tech industries have been developed to make enterprises full of vitality; The western development and China's accession to the WTO will bring unlimited business opportunities. Although consumption, investment and net exports may slow down, the mainland economy will still maintain a high growth rate of around 7%. The sustained high-speed growth of the mainland economy will bring many benefits to Hong Kong, which is the biggest driving force to ensure the stable growth of Hong Kong's economy.

* Overall, the global trade environment in 200 1 year will be worse than the previous year, and the growth of global trade will slow down. Mainly due to the slowdown of American economy, the stagnation of Japanese economy, the slowdown of economic growth in Southeast Asian countries and regions, and the relative reduction of consumer demand. As the largest trading partner of Hong Kong, it is difficult for China Mainland to maintain the trade growth rate in 2000. However, the improvement of the European economy, the sustained growth of the mainland economy, China's accession to the WTO and the development of the western region will keep the foreign trade in the mainland at a high level, which is conducive to the steady growth of Hong Kong's foreign trade.

* The international financial market is 200 1 year, and there are turbulent factors in the international financial market. As for the stock market, with the obvious economic slowdown, the US stock market will continue to adjust. If the downward adjustment is too large, it may lead to violent turmoil in most stock markets around the world, and the Hong Kong stock market will not be spared. In terms of exchange rate, because the new US administration still maintains a strong US dollar policy, the US dollar exchange rate is basically stable; The euro zone economy improves and the euro will return to a high level; The yen is dragged down by the Japanese economy and will hover at a low level. Due to the linked exchange rate of the Hong Kong dollar, the exchange rate trend is similar to that in 2000. In terms of interest rates, due to the economic slowdown, the United States will enter the interest rate reduction cycle, and Hong Kong will follow the United States to cut interest rates.

* In short, the sustained economic growth of the Mainland, the United States and Europe, which are closely related to Hong Kong's economic development, will correspondingly drive the growth of Hong Kong's export trade, service industry and financial industry.

* Local factors The internal factors of Hong Kong's economic development will be better than last year, showing a healthy and stable growth. Under the linked exchange rate system, after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates three times, the pressure of high interest rates in Hong Kong began to ease, which was conducive to economic growth. China's accession to the WTO and the development of the western region are conducive to the inflow of foreign capital into Hong Kong. After the SAR Government launched a series of policies to stabilize the property market, consumer confidence increased, and the property market became more and more active, showing signs of recovery. With the steady growth of Hong Kong's economy, the employment situation is expected to continue to improve, deflation will gradually disappear and consumer prices will rise moderately. With the improvement of enterprise benefits, the salary frozen for two years began to thaw, and large enterprises generally raised their salaries, which will effectively stimulate internal consumer demand. Driven by the above-mentioned series of internal and external favorable factors, Hong Kong's economy will grow steadily.

* Forecast of economic growth trend

Economies with GDP of 200 1 will slow down under the influence of the high base in the previous year and the global economic slowdown. Due to the improvement of internal factors, if there is no big change in external factors, Hong Kong's economy will grow steadily at around 4%.

* Financial Market Due to the instability of the US stock market, the Hong Kong stock market may fluctuate greatly at 200 1, but the overall development should remain normal. The Hong Kong bond market will continue to develop healthily and remain stable. Driven by the US interest rate cut, it is expected that the interest rate will continue to drop by about 65,438+0 percentage points. The exchange rate is expected to remain stable.

* As the economy continues to improve and consumer confidence increases, prices will stop falling, stabilize and increase slightly.

* Unemployment Rate With the steady economic growth and the implementation of the government's retraining plan, the unemployment rate will stabilize.

* The real estate industry in major industries will tend to be stable and rebound to a certain extent; With the joint efforts of Hong Kong and the Mainland, tourism will continue to grow. With the steady development of economy, the retail industry will grow moderately; Affected by the global economic slowdown, the shipping industry will not grow substantially; There will be no great improvement in the construction industry when there is no obvious increase in construction projects and the environment of the construction market changes little.

Hong Kong's foreign trade situation

Due to the accelerated growth of world economy and trade, the economic environment inside and outside Hong Kong has obviously improved. On the basis of the recovery growth from 65438 to 0999, Hong Kong's foreign trade showed a rare high growth trend in 2000, which became the main driving force for Hong Kong's strong economic growth in 2000. Hong Kong's foreign trade will continue to grow in 200 1 year, but the growth rate will be reduced.

* Hong Kong's foreign trade grew strongly in 2000.

* Commodity import and export trade grew rapidly.

In 2000, the total foreign trade volume of Hong Kong was HK$ 3,230.7 billion, up by 17.8%, up by 5.2% compared with the highest level in history 1997. Among them, the export was HK$ 65.438+05.727 billion, an increase of 654.38+06.6%; The import value was HK$ 654.38+065.80 billion, an increase of 654.38+09%. The basic pattern of Hong Kong's foreign trade in 2000 was that the import, re-export and export of Hong Kong products increased substantially in an all-round way, which was basically the highest growth rate in the past seven years, indicating that Hong Kong had shaken off the shadow of the Asian financial crisis and entered a substantial growth. In particular, the export of Hong Kong products has increased considerably, instead of the sharp decline in the past four years.

* Strong growth in re-export trade. Hong Kong's overall export consists of entrepot and domestic export, with entrepot accounting for 88.5% and domestic export accounting for 1 1.5%. Re-export trade mainly refers to the re-export of goods from the mainland of China to all countries in the world, and the transshipment of goods from all countries in the world to the mainland. Due to the improvement of the external market environment and the rapid growth of China's economy and import and export trade, Hong Kong's entrepot trade grew strongly in 2000, reaching a total of HK$ 65,438+0,396,5438+0.7 billion, an increase of 65,438+0.865,438+0.00%, the highest increase since 65,438+0.994.

* Domestic exports stopped falling and rebounded,

In 2000, the export of Hong Kong's local products reversed the downward trend since 1996. The annual export of 18 10 billion Hong Kong dollars was increased by 6. 1%, which was in sharp contrast to the 9.5% decline of 1999, but it was still only equivalent in quantity. Most of Hong Kong's local manufacturing industries have been transferred to the Mainland, and this transfer will continue after China's accession to the World Trade Organization. Therefore, the downward trend of Hong Kong's domestic exports will be long-term.

The export structure of Hong Kong products is mainly labor-intensive textiles and garments, light industry and electronic and electrical products. Among them, textiles and garments, electronic appliances, jewelry, printed matter, watches and clocks, plastic products and metal products were HK$ 86.6 billion, HK$ 43.3 billion, HK$ 5.7 billion, HK$ 2.8 billion and HK$ 6,543.8 billion respectively. Metal products (8 1.8%), motors (19.9%) and plastic products (13.9%) grew rapidly.

* The outward processing trade has grown rapidly.

The outward processing business of Hong Kong, that is, the processing trade of Hong Kong businessmen in the Mainland, is the main component of the trade between the two places. In 2000, Hong Kong's outward processing trade grew rapidly. 1-At the end of September, the estimated value of outward processing exported from Hong Kong to the Mainland was HK$ 205.2 billion, up by 20.7% over the previous year, accounting for 5 1.7% of the total value exported to the Mainland. The estimated value of manufactured goods imported from the mainland of China is HK$ 4 158 billion, up by 19%, accounting for 79. 1% of the total value of imports from the mainland.

Hong Kong's outward processing trade accounts for 67.6% of the total trade between the two places. This is the result of a large number of Hong Kong manufacturing industries moving to the Mainland over the years. The further improvement of the mainland's processing trade policy has played a positive role in promoting the development of Hong Kong's processing trade.

* Overall growth in exports to major countries and regions.

Mainland China is Hong Kong's largest trading partner, and the trade volume between the two places accounts for 38.9% of Hong Kong's total trade. In 2000, the trade volume between Hong Kong and the Mainland reached HK$ 654.38+25.8 million, an increase of 654.38+0.9%. Among them, Hong Kong exported HK$ 543 billion to the mainland, up by 20.8%, which was 4.2 percentage points higher than the overall export growth rate of Hong Kong. Imports from the mainland amounted to HK$ 71500 million, up by 17.7%.

In 2000, Hong Kong's traditional export markets to Asia, Western Europe, North America, Oceania and so on grew in an all-round way. Among them, exports to Asia increased by 20.4%, to Western Europe by 10.4%, to North America by 13.8% and to Oceania by 16.6%.

In terms of countries and regions, Hong Kong's exports to the United States, Japan, Britain, Germany, Taiwan Province Province and Singapore increased by 23.2%, 19.4%, 12.7%, 13.7%, 20.8% and 13.4% respectively.

* Rapid growth in imports.

In 2000, Hong Kong imported HK$ 65.438+06.580 billion, an increase of 654.38+09%, while it decreased by 3% in 65.438+0999. From the perspective of regional structure, the mainland is the largest supplier of Hong Kong's imported goods, accounting for 43% of the total imports. Other major suppliers are Japan, Taiwan Province Province of China, the United States, South Korea and Singapore, accounting for 12%, 7.5%, 6.8%, 4.9% and 4.5% respectively. The main reasons for the increase in imports are the acceleration of entrepot growth, the resumption of local economic growth and the expansion of local sales.

* Hong Kong's foreign trade will continue to grow in 2001year.

Hongkong is an international trade center and an important bridge for China's foreign trade. The development trend of its foreign trade depends not only on the growth of world economy and trade, but also on the development of China's domestic economy and trade. Looking forward to 200 1, the world economy will develop in adjustment and China's economy will maintain steady growth. Under such circumstances, it is expected that Hong Kong's foreign trade will maintain a steady growth trend.

The world economy is developing in adjustment, and Hong Kong's foreign trade has a stable external environment.

The strong growth of the world economy in 2000 led to the growth of global trade, which was the fastest growth in the past 10 year. The International Monetary Fund predicts that the global economic growth rate will slow down in 20001year, but it will still maintain a high growth rate of 4.2%, which is conducive to the sustained growth of global trade.

The American economy grew strongly in 2000, but it obviously began to slow down in the fourth quarter. At present, the inflation rate in the United States is still effectively controlled, and large American companies have not suffered serious losses. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates continuously, and the interest rate lever that regulates the macro economy is playing a role. It is generally estimated that the American economy will achieve a soft landing, and the possibility of economic recession is not great, and it is expected to resume growth in the second half of the year. Although the economic slowdown in the United States will have an impact on consumer spending, it is expected that only the growth rate of consumer spending will slow down, and it will have little impact on the import demand of quality and cheap goods in Hong Kong and the Mainland.

In 2000, the adjustment of EU's economic structure was accelerated, the export of the euro zone was strong, and domestic demand was active, and the unemployment rate that had plagued the EU for a long time gradually eased. The European Commission predicts that the EU's economic growth rate will be 3.5% in 2000, and that the EU's economy will maintain steady growth in 20001year, but the growth rate will be slightly reduced.

In 2000, Japan's economic recovery gradually strengthened, government public expenditure continued to stimulate economic growth, consumer confidence increased, corporate income recovered, investment increased, and the economic growth rate achieved a positive growth of 1.5%. However, a series of structural problems in the Japanese economy have not been fundamentally solved. 200 1 will only be a year of moderate recovery, and the economic growth rate is expected to remain at 1%- 1.5%.

East Asian economy has got rid of the negative impact of the financial crisis. Driven by strong external demand and expanding domestic demand, the economic growth of most Asian countries maintained a good momentum in 2000. Exports from South Korea, Indonesia, Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia and the Philippines all maintained double-digit growth, and foreign trade showed a large surplus. The economies of East Asian countries are highly dependent on exports, and the political situation in some countries is not stable enough. Looking forward to 200 1, East Asia's economy is expected to continue to grow steadily this year, but the growth rate will drop slightly.

* The sustained economic growth of China Mainland is an important guarantee for the growth of Hong Kong's foreign trade.

In 2000, Chinese mainland's GDP exceeded198 billion USD for the first time, with an increase of 8%. Import and export exceeded $400 billion for the first time, with an increase of 3 1.5%, of which exports increased by 27.8%. 200 1 year is the first year of China's tenth five-year plan. It is estimated that the GDP will maintain a growth rate of 7%, and the growth rate of foreign trade will slow down, with an estimated target of 8%.

China will continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, vigorously promote economic restructuring, and promote further growth in investment and consumption. 200 1, 1, Chinese mainland lowered the import tariff again, and the average tax rate dropped from 16.4% to 15.3%. At the same time, continuing to improve various measures to encourage exports is conducive to the growth of foreign trade between the mainland and Hong Kong. With China's entry into the WTO and the concrete implementation of the strategy of developing the western region, China's opening to the outside world has entered a new period, which will bring more business opportunities to Hong Kong businessmen.

* The real growth of Hong Kong's economy is an important internal cause of the growth of Hong Kong's foreign trade.

Hong Kong's economy resumed positive growth from the second quarter of 1999. In 2000, Hong Kong's GDP even achieved a high growth rate of 10.5%, the largest increase since 1987. Local consumption expenditure increased by 5.4%, investment increased by 8.8%, deflation gradually improved, and the decline of the composite price index narrowed obviously. The unemployment rate dropped from 6.3% in 1998 to 4.3% in 2001/0, indicating that Hong Kong's economy has resumed normal development. The vigorous development of local investment and consumption is one of the reasons for the rapid growth of Hong Kong's import and export.

Hong Kong's economy will continue to grow in 200 1 year, but the growth rate will slow down. It is estimated that GDP will increase by 4% and exports will increase by 5.5%. The sustained growth of Hong Kong's economy is an important internal cause of Hong Kong's foreign trade growth.

* The factors that restrict the development of Hong Kong's foreign trade cannot be ignored.

Some uncertain factors in the world economic growth will directly affect the development of Hong Kong's foreign trade. The trend of American economic growth is still unclear; World oil prices may fluctuate greatly; Some deep-seated problems in the financial field have not yet been solved; Trade diversion and protectionism brought by regional trade agreements distort normal trade and may affect the growth rate of Hong Kong's trade.