Although I don't have a property in my hand at present that can be traded through the second-hand housing and rental market, if I immerse myself in the circle of real estate, I will also form my own understanding. Speaking out today, I will make a report exchange. Because my thoughts are shallow, my words are simple, with less truth and more mistakes. I intend to throw bricks, which will inevitably make people laugh and be generous.
The real estate referred to in this article is only residential, and the understanding of investment in shops and office buildings is beyond the scope of this article.
Why do you want to invest in personal real estate?
At present, the real estate situation in Shenzhen and even the whole country is rising steadily. Without personal real estate investment, you will automatically give up the opportunity to get a slice of the rising house prices. As long as the annual rate of return of real estate is higher than the interest rate of time deposit and inflation rate, buying a house with its own funds is the right choice for maintaining and increasing the value of funds; As long as the annual yield of real estate is higher than the mortgage interest rate, it is a rational investment behavior to raise funds from banks as much as possible. It can be said that if you don't buy a house, you will lose money. It is a practice that goes against the current and goes against the trend.
In addition, I advocate that young people should hold a moderately frugal consumption view. Anyone who has played real-time strategy games knows how to allocate 100 units of "mine" or "grain" at the beginning of the game. Whether to build a "soldier" or a "bunker" first has a vital impact on the final outcome of the game. Players who use it reasonably often have inexhaustible resources in the middle and late stages of the game, and spend 180,000 "mines"180 "soldiers" without blinking; However, players who use the wrong initial resources are suppressed, always in financial trouble and finally eliminated. In the same way, suppose you have 50 thousand yuan at the age of 20, then you will use it for eating big meals, soaking in bars, wearing famous brands and wearing jewelry; But if you can find an investment channel with an annual return rate of 10%, then when you are 50 years old, you will have 870,000 assets! In other words, at the age of 20, every extra 50,000 Yuan You will mean that you will lose 870,000 in your account at the age of 50! Of course, young people should enjoy it when they should, and abandon it when they should. "People don't waste their youth" and "flowers need to be folded straight". Youth should not be pale and monotonous, but consumption should be in line with your income, status and status, not too extravagant. Because when you buy a fashionable mobile phone, a CD bag and a bottle of Chanel perfume, all you have is a mobile phone, a bag or a bottle of perfume, and what you lose is probably a car, a mansion or even a yacht in the future!
Relations and differences between real estate and other investment tools
Like stocks, bonds, foreign exchange, funds, options, futures, insurance, gold, jewelry and works of art, real estate is just one of many investment tools.
"Poor Dad, Rich Dad" once defined assets and liabilities simply: what can preserve or increase the value is assets; On the contrary, it is debt. Therefore, buying assets is investment; On the contrary, it belongs to consumption. The essence of personal real estate investment is to maintain and increase the value of funds by buying real estate. In a sense, whether real estate belongs to investment or consumption should be counted as assets or liabilities, and sometimes it just depends on the buyer's consciousness. However, even for the purpose of self-occupation, customers want to preserve the value of their real estate at least, while customers who use real estate as an investment tool value the long-term rental income or short-term appreciation difference brought by real estate.
The preservation of real estate is to "solidify" capital in the form of real estate to avoid various risks such as inflation, interest rate, exchange rate and economic cycle; Real estate rental income, equivalent to the annual dividend or bonus of stocks; The price difference of real estate appreciation is equivalent to the price difference of stocks.
Real estate investment, like other investments, is a complex game influenced by politics, social development, fiscal policy, capital policy, interest rate, exchange rate, bank reserve ratio, economic development mode, cycle, urban development strategy, foreign trade and other factors. For example, as the saying goes, "Gold is bought in troubled times and harvested in prosperous times" refers to the relationship between investment methods and social stability, because social unrest is easy to cause currency depreciation, which is not as safe as gold; Although the liquidity of works of art is poor, it is easy to get a good price when it comes to prosperity and luxury. Similarly, if there is a great depression, social unrest or war, it may be better to own two bags of potatoes than several houses; Only when the society is stable and the economy is prosperous will people have the demand of renting, buying, changing houses and having two rooms (this second room is not the other two rooms, for the same reason). Comrades, we live in good times, thanks to Chairman Mao! Thank you * * * producer!
On the other hand, real estate investment and other investments are an interactive system, which cannot be considered separately and in isolation. For example, some time ago, the theory of Shanghai real estate bubble was rampant, and one of the arguments was that a large number of international capital entered the market. The reason why international capital is willing to bear the cost of two foreign exchange exchanges to enter China is closely related to the low interest rate of the US dollar and the fixed exchange rate system of RMB pegged to the US dollar in recent years. Therefore, when the focus of RMB shifted to a basket of currencies and adopted a floating exchange rate policy (in fact, it was still dirty floating), international capital began to cash out and flee, and the Shanghai housing market was in a downturn. For another example, the general public has turned a deaf ear to a series of macro-control policies of the country, and the enthusiasm for real estate investment continues to be strong, which is closely related to the chaotic situation of the stock market for many years, and its relationship is like the two ends of a seesaw. When the deposit interest rate remains low, even lower than the inflation rate, it is undoubtedly a cautious and exhausted behavior, and huge private capital is anxiously looking for a way out. However, the stock market has been in a downturn for years, and the darkness continues. Investing in it is like a monkey fishing for the moon. They may all lose money, and there are no other investment channels in society. At this time, real estate, as an investment tool, stands out with its advantages of relatively low risk, high return, low technology content and low entry threshold, and has become a favored choice for a large number of hot money. Therefore, it can be boldly predicted that unless there are new high-quality investment tools, the stock market will not be revitalized, and the "attachment" of the general public to personal real estate investment will not fade.
In class, the teacher will tell us that the difference between real estate and other investment tools lies in safety, liquidity and profitability. Stocks, options, futures and foreign exchange have high risks, but good liquidity and great returns; Bonds, funds and insurance have low risks, average liquidity, but stable returns; Gold has low risk, good liquidity and low income; Jewelry and artworks have great profits, but high risks and poor liquidity; The risk of real estate investment is moderate, the liquidity is slightly low, but the income is good. In addition, there are significant differences in investment cycle, transaction cost and technical threshold among various investment tools.
But I think, for ordinary people, the biggest feature of real estate investment is: mortgage loan for house purchase. The financial leverage effect brought by mortgage loan for house purchase is an incomparable advantage for other investment tools. For example, if you invest 6.5438+10,000 yuan, you can only buy stocks with a face value of 6.5438+10,000 yuan. Even if the appreciation is 654.38+ 00%, you can only earn 6.5438+10 million yuan. However, if you use this 654.38+million yuan to buy a house, you can get a loan of 400,000 yuan with 20% mortgage, so your total investment will become 500,000 yuan. Assuming that the house price increases by 8% (the average price of commercial housing in Shenzhen in the third quarter of 2005 increased by 12. 18% year-on-year), your income will reach 40,000 yuan. 40,000 ÷65438+ million = 40%! (The above example is for convenience, ignoring the transaction cost).
40%, comrades!
What's the current interest rate for bank deposits? Just 0.72%! The interest rate of one-year time deposit is 2.25%, and the interest rate of five-year time deposit is only 3.6%, and 20% interest tax is deducted from the above interest rates; The assets owned by Li Ka-shing and Soros appreciate by about10% annually; In recent years, the GDP growth rate of Shenzhen is around 20%, and the national situation can exceed 9%. The United States hovers between 3-4%; And Japan can reach 2%, thank goodness! (Of course, they have a large base). As early as in the political textbook of junior high school, the great revolutionary tutor Marx told us: "Once there is a proper profit, capital will be bold. If there is a profit of 10%, it is guaranteed to be used everywhere; With a profit of 20%, it will be active; With a profit of 50%, you will take risks; For the profit of 100%, it dares to trample on all human laws; The profit is 300%, and I dare to commit any crime, even risking my head. " We are not capitalists, but dare you say that we are not interested in 40% profits? China's housing mortgage system inadvertently makes real estate investment conform to the most important rule in the investment game, that is, "making money with other people's money", which is the most attractive, wonderful and core secret of personal real estate investment!
Add a comment | Read a comment (3) | Fixed link | Reference notice (0) | Record it.
Some Understanding of Personal Real Estate Investment (Ⅱ)
Profit model of personal real estate investment
Take the purchase of a two-bedroom apartment with an area of 75 square meters and a total price of 500,000 in Shenzhen as an example. Suppose that the mortgage is 20% 6,543,800 yuan, the loan is 400,000 yuan, the loan term is 30 years, the principal and interest are repaid in equal amount, and the loan interest remains unchanged. House prices are rising at an annual rate of 8%. It takes 8 months from buying a house to moving in, 7 months from moving in to issuing a certificate, 3 months for decoration and 66 months for second-hand housing transaction.
Within three years after the investment (actually 40 months. According to the relevant policies of Shenzhen, second-hand houses that are traded two years after obtaining the real estate license can be exempted from business tax. In this case, it will still take three months to meet the above requirements after three years from the date of purchase. In order to avoid business tax, this case conducts transactions after meeting the above conditions, and reserves a trading period of 1 month. ) cash flow and profit analysis are shown in the following table:
Notes on project cash flow
Calculation formula and charging standard amount (yuan)
Down payment (including down payment) * 20%- 100000
Deed tax of real estate license * 1.5%-7500
Stamp Duty on Property Ownership Certificate * 0.03%- 150
Registration fee of real estate license 50/ box -50
Property Ownership Certificate decal 5/ Case -5
The property management fee is 2 yuan /m2/ month-4,800 yuan, which will be charged after check-in, ***36-8+3+ 1=32 months.
Furniture decoration fee (simple) 300 yuan /m2-22500.
The annual interest rate of the monthly repayment interest loan is 5.508%-70029.2, and the monthly repayment amount is 2273. 16 yuan, starting from 1 month after completing the bank disclosure procedures.
***36- 1+3+ 1=39 months, and the total monthly repayment is 88,653.24 yuan, of which the principal is repaid.
18624.04 yuan, with interest of 70029.2 yuan.
Transaction price of agency fee for second-hand housing transaction * 1.5%
(If it is less than 5,000 yuan, it will be calculated as 5,000 yuan)-Current standard of 7500 intermediary companies.
Financial loan fee Loan amount * 1.3%-4957.89 Before the second-hand house is sold, it is necessary to pay off the balance of the bank loan, redeem the property and cancel the mortgage.
Contract (in this case, the loan balance after 40 months is 38 1375.96 yuan). The money
Jin can apply for a short-term loan from a financial company and needs to pay a handling fee, usually through an intermediary.
Our company is responsible for the formalities.
Second-hand housing transaction business tax transaction price * 5.05% 0 has been evaded.
The value-added part of the second-hand house transaction * 20% 0 can be negotiated with the buyer and traded according to the original price of the house, that is, the purchase price = the selling price, which can avoid the value-added tax.
Total cost -2 17492.09
Rental income 1.500 yuan/month, 40,500 yuan will be rented after occupancy and renovation. Considering the vacancy period of two months, * * * 36-8-3+3+65,438+0-2 = 27 months.
The agency fee for renting a house is-3,000 yuan per month, which is calculated according to two rentals.
Pay off the balance of bank loans -38 1375.96
The transaction price is 8% 64110650000 * (1.08) 3 = 629856 yuan, and the decoration and furniture are depreciated by 50%, i.e.1/250 yuan.
Depreciation residual value of decoration and furniture
Total income is 297,230.04
Net income total income-total cost 79737.95
The return on capital (total) net income/total cost is 36.7%.
Return on self-owned capital (average annual) net income/total cost /3 12.2% is very simple, taking the arithmetic average of three years.
Initial return on investment (total) net income/down payment 79.7%
Initial return on investment (average annual), net income/down payment /3 26.6% Simply put, it is calculated in three years and the arithmetic average is taken.
Because most of the total cost is not paid on the day of purchase, but is invested in 40 months or paid immediately on the day of transaction. If strictly calculated, the total amount of self-owned funds actually occupied should be deducted from the amount of funds paid immediately on the day of transaction, and then the funds invested for 40 months should be discounted to the level on the day of purchase according to the corresponding bank interest rate, and finally the amount of funds invested for the first time on the day of purchase should be added. So the real average annual return on capital should be between 12.2-26.6%.
Due to the conservative principle, the above analysis overestimates some expenses, but in practice, some expenses can be reduced or exempted to varying degrees. In addition, through calculation, it can be seen that every time the house price in Shenzhen rises by 1 point, the benefits it brings to investors will be several points due to the financial leverage effect; Similarly, when buying a house, every time you apply for a discount of 1 points, you can create several points of income. Don't underestimate these 1 points, which may ultimately determine the profit rate of your investment.
It is worth noting that many of the conditions assumed in the above examples are variables, and different judgments and choices should be made according to personal circumstances and market changes. For example, whether to choose a first-hand house or a second-hand house, the size of the area, the total price, the mortgage ratio, the loan period, whether to decorate it or not, whether to rent it, whether to sell it after two years, and the holding period. Different variables can evolve into a variety of investment methods, but profit expectations can be calculated by using the above model and will never change.
Add a comment | Fixed link | Reference notice (0) | Record it
Some Understanding of Personal Real Estate Investment (Ⅱ)
Balance between investment cycle, return on investment and return on investment
When investing in personal real estate, we should focus on three indicators: investment cycle, return on investment and return on investment. Generally speaking, it is difficult to give consideration to the three, and we should focus on them. Different pursuits determine different investment methods.
For a young man like me, I don't have much savings, but I have little expenditure, strong repayment ability and no big expenditure in the near future. Personally, I think I should invest all my money and choose an investment model with short investment cycle, fast trading and rolling trading. Specifically, it is to buy a first-hand house, a small apartment, borrow as much as possible, extend the repayment period as much as possible, and don't decorate it until the real estate license expires for two years. The reason for this is the following：
1, investment taboo: put all the eggs in one basket, diversify the investment, and match the investment tools with different risk indexes to reduce the capital risk. For example, one third of the funds will be used for high-risk stocks, one third for medium-risk real estate, and the last third for low-risk national debt. However, due to the expansion of China's real estate industry, young people's careers are also on the rise, and they are optimistic about their future expectations, and their living burden is relatively light in the near future. Therefore, if they want to accumulate capital quickly, they should focus on their own goals and go all out to maximize their income while the market is booming.
2. Because young people have limited savings and the investment principal is meager, it is doomed that the absolute value of investment income cannot be rich, and it is unrealistic to dream of investing once and for all. Therefore, the investment cycle must be short, the cash flow must be fast, and it is not necessary to make small profits, even if there are only 5 points of income every year. After several years, the accumulation of original capital will be objective. If a property and other real estate licenses are over two years, that is, three years after buying a house, you can earn 70,000 yuan (avoiding the business tax of 5.05%); Once the real estate license is completed, that is, buying a house for about one and a half years, you can only earn 30 thousand, and you are willing to choose the latter. Although the absolute value of the former is higher, the market risk is also great, while the latter can quickly recover the principal, choose the next property according to market changes, and quickly roll investment. You can invest twice and earn twice in three years. More importantly, getting a profit of 30,000 yuan a day earlier means the ability to get a loan of1.20 thousand yuan a day earlier, and use the bank's money as much as possible and as soon as possible to expand the base of its investment principal, "making money with other people's money";
3. The disadvantage of many loans and long repayment period is that the repayment interest is high, and a considerable part of the profits from property appreciation are eaten by banks. However, in order to leverage more initial investment funds with limited principal, this is a sacrifice that has to be made. Don't feel bad, it's nothing more than earning less, but you can earn faster and be more cost-effective in the long run. Even if you have extra money, you should buy another property, because the return rate of the same money in the bank is only 1.8% a year, and the investment property can only save 5.508% a year, so you would rather buy two properties with a down payment of 20% than one with a down payment of 50%. Moreover, for investors who are determined to sell in the short term, no matter whether the loan is 15 or 30 years, there is not much difference in repayment interest in the first three to five years;
4. First-hand houses have great appreciation potential. First of all, the new site often adopts the price strategy of entering the market at a low price, and the purchase of a house instantly realizes partial appreciation; Secondly, you can get additional discounts at the opening, and you also have a relatively large choice space for the quality of room type, orientation, floor and landscape; Finally, for residential areas developed by stages, under the current prosperous market situation, the houses launched in the first phase will almost certainly appreciate, so the appreciation of first-hand houses is likely to exceed the average price increase level in the region; Unless the second-hand houses have good property management services and favorable stimulation of newly planned traffic, it is difficult to obtain substantial appreciation space.
5. The reason for not renovating is that although it is almost impossible for anyone to rent an unfurnished house, considering the interval between buying a house and moving in, the renovation period and the vacant period, the time actually available for renting is greatly reduced, and the increase in income is not obvious compared with the renovation investment of at least 20,000 to 30,000 yuan; Secondly, due to the traditional cultural psychology of China people, they are generally unwilling to live in houses that others have lived in; Finally, although the renovated house can increase the transaction price of the second-hand house, due to the serious loss and depreciation during the rental period, the style and style of decoration and furniture are often not recognized by buyers, which not only narrows the scope of buyers, but also may not be able to increase the transaction price on this grounds. The more items are negotiated, the greater the time and difficulty of the transaction.
For middle-aged people, life bears more pressures and responsibilities, such as their own house, car, children's education, medical care, and the monthly payment for the elderly ... all these are heavy burdens on their shoulders. Although the income is relatively high and stable, the expenses are also large, and I dare not pour out my savings for a rainy day. In this case, personal real estate investment should not pursue short-term returns excessively, but should invest for a long time, and pursue investment methods with low risk and stable income. For example, a middle-aged family aged 35-40 has a monthly income of 65,438+2,000 yuan and a deposit of 550,000 yuan. It is recommended to buy a small apartment with three bedrooms, one living room or apartment. Suppose each small apartment is 40 square meters, the unit price is 9,000 yuan, the total price is 360,000 yuan, and three sets of * * * 1.08 million yuan. 40% down payment is about 400,000 yuan (plus 65,438+5,000 yuan * 45,000 yuan for furniture decoration, and about 1000 yuan is reserved), with a loan of 680,000 yuan, repayment period of 15 years, total monthly payment of about 5,560 yuan, and monthly rental income of about 1200 yuan * *. The actual monthly expenditure is 1960 yuan (about 1.6% of the family's monthly income, which should be quite safe). 1.5 years later, that is, when the couple are 50-55 years old, they not only fully own three properties (the three properties have increased in value, and the total assets should exceed 6,543,800 yuan), but also get them every month.
For the elderly over 60 years old, due to retirement, their monthly income is not much, but they should have some savings. At this time, it is to stop investing and travel around the world with savings to enjoy life; Whether to continue to invest and accumulate wealth for future generations depends entirely on personal choice. But at least you can sell or rent the bigger house you live in now and buy a smaller house, because your children have become independent families and live independently, and the family structure is simplified. In addition, you have to spend quite a long time traveling, visiting relatives and friends, and visiting your children every year, and you have become an "empty nest family". There is really no need to continue living in a big house.
Some suggestions on personal real estate investment
Long-term investment is suitable for mature areas; The growth field should be short-term speculation. For example, in Luohu, the house price has risen to a high level, with little fluctuation in recent years and limited appreciation space, but it is popular, well developed, prosperous in business, convenient in transportation, stable in rental market price and rich in tourists, so long-term investment can be considered; Longhua, on the other hand, belongs to a growth area, with reasonable urban planning, continuous favorable traffic, rapid rise of real estate market and guaranteed expectation of appreciation of investment real estate.
Carefully choose areas that are highly dependent on one or two enterprises. Nothing can affect real estate prices more than unemployment. At least half of the real estate market in Bantian area is supported by several IT companies such as Huawei and Foxconn. It is estimated that these giant enterprises will not die in the foreseeable future three to five years, but if they intend to invest in this real estate for a long time, they must link their fate with investment risks.
Middle and high-grade houses have the lowest risk; Luxury houses have the greatest benefits. The biggest animal on earth is not a tiger that can eat a sheep, but a whale that can swallow thousands of shrimps. Similarly, Coca-Cola, Procter & Gamble and Microsoft, which produce soft drinks, shampoos and computer software, can proudly rank among the top 500 in the world. However, in China, there are many rich people, many poor people and the most middle class. Keeping an eye on this group of people and choosing a property with a small area and a moderate total price for investment can not only ensure sales, but also reduce risks. It is the most sensible way for investors with limited funds, because rich people will not easily buy second-hand houses, nor will they buy houses for the first time, and they can afford them in time. For investors with abundant funds, they might as well invest in luxury houses, because luxury houses are no longer a necessity to meet the basic needs of life, but a luxury with ostentation. To use the lines in the movie "Big Man", "People who are willing to spend $2,000 on a house don't care about spending another $2,000". The real estate they fancy must be unique in temperament, scarce in resources and unparalleled in market position. As for the price, "it's tens of millions, and I have plenty of money!" Therefore, it is easier to make huge profits by investing in luxury houses.
To invest in non-luxury housing, we must first choose a low-priced and practical property. Because the buyers of non-luxury second-hand houses have limited funds and are eager to move in, there are relatively few residential units available in the market, so they are relatively insensitive to the floor, orientation, landscape, noise, gift area, apartment innovation and other factors. The most important thing is the function and practicality of the apartment. Therefore, when investing in non-luxury houses, try to choose buildings with low total price, low floors, less orientation and less landscape. Noise, pollution and high-voltage lines can be tolerated as long as they are not harmful to health. There is absolutely no need to pay tens of thousands of dollars for those "unsightly" gift areas such as double-storey high terraces and large-sized home gardens.
Buy an ordinary house in "good food" instead of a high-quality house in "bad food". "Man struggles upwards", and the public's evaluation of the community is related to the owner's "face" problem. Anyway, I live in XX community. In order to live in a community with a good reputation, people would rather have a smaller house and a worse location. "Meng Mu has moved three times" and lives next door. Who doesn't want to live next door to celebrities, rich people, literati and officials? And how can a white-collar worker want to live in a community with a bunch of migrant workers?
The above remarks are personal opinions and are for reference only. All the consequences have nothing to do with the author.
Investment is risky, so be careful when entering the market!