The reserve/resource base is large. This sentence is very simple, everyone seems to understand it, but how many people can clearly explain the standard of large reserves/resources? Not only are there not many people who can make it clear, but the standards corresponding to different varieties are definitely different. For example, iron ore is really called bulk, and it must be very large to call it a large reserve/resource base, and it should not be taken out as small as several hundred million tons; In terms of metal varieties, such as tin, one hundred and twenty thousand tons is enough. For other varieties, eighteen copper people can't say clearly, but for copper, if this mine has tens of millions of tons of reserves/resources (metal, not ore, don't be fooled by some projects), it will definitely be enough. Therefore, from this perspective, Camoa Kagula, the protagonist obtained by Toromocho, Las Bambas, Ainak, Tenko and China enterprises, has absolutely world-class potential. One more thing that must be made clear is the taste. Sometimes the tastes of different minerals are not very good to compare together. Don't be fooled by some half bottles. For example, Tianke is a sedimentary product with high grade, with a reserve grade of 2.6% and a selected grade of more than 3% in the production process; However, Las Bambas is a porphyry type with a reserve grade of 0.8%, and now the selected grade exceeds 1%. If the above two are compared together, las Bambas will kneel down properly, which can make the grade of porphyry like that. If the reserve grade reaches 1%, and the ore quantity is large, the prospector's eyes will glow green. The copper deposits in the Central African copper belt, if the grade is the same as that of Las Bambas, are basically waste rocks. Sometimes, they are not qualified to be stacked as low-grade minerals and directly used as tailings dams of waste rock piles. And our protagonist, Kamoa Kagula, is a world-class discovery in both taste and quantity. If only the geological reliable ore quantity is considered, the copper resource of this product is only 26.74 million tons, and the grade is as high as 2.83%. Among them, the grade of Kagula mine is against the sky, and the copper resource is 6.63 million tons, with a grade as high as 3.45%.
Mine output is high. The first question, what is high? Other 18 copper experts are hard to say, but as far as copper is concerned, mines with a copper output of 300,000-500,000 tons/year can be counted by both hands, and some mines with a copper output of 200,000-300,000 tons/year exceed 200,000 tons, which is definitely a super-large copper mine. If a mine wants to have high output, it must have a lot of resources. Otherwise, if you invest a huge amount of money and haven't recovered the investment cost for two years, the pit will be closed, and no investor will do such a stupid thing. Another, if you want a high mine output, under a certain grade, you have to have a large handling capacity. If you want a large handling capacity, you have to have a large investment. Nowadays, if the mine output exceeds 200,000 tons/year, it is generally necessary to develop porphyry mines. Porphyry mines are characterized by low grade and large amount of ore, and massive ore can be treated economically through the scale effect of large mechanical equipment. Or take the mine bought by China people as an example. The mineral processing capacity of Tolmochauri is117,000 tons, the total daily mining and stripping amount exceeds 200,000 tons, and the total investment in feasibility study is 3.5 billion US dollars. The daily processing capacity of las bambas is 6.5438+0.4 million tons, and the total daily mining and stripping amount is more than 400,000 tons (I can't remember clearly, I vaguely remember that stripping ratio is at the level of 2). The total investment that Glencore can give in the feasibility study is 6 billion US dollars. However, the gold mines in Congo are generally high-grade but few in quantity, and few mines can produce particularly large output. After all these years, it's just Tenke. Because of the high grade of ore, this product has a production capacity of 200,000 tons of copper+10.6 million tons of cobalt, which is very rare. And our protagonist, Kamoa-Kakula, because Kakula's grade is too high, with an average selected grade of 5.76% (what's the concept, the selected grade may be much higher than 5.76% a few years ago), so the processing capacity can be relatively low, and the copper output can reach 200,000 tons/year with only 4 million tons/year, so its investment scale is also greatly reduced, as low as 65,438+. Eighteen copper people have seen so many projects, and it is the first time to see that the investment intensity of super-large copper projects is so low.
Long service life. Why should we emphasize this point? Because commodities are cyclical industries, no one can guarantee that your mine will be put into production when the commodity price is the highest, and the price will continue until you recover the cost, so you have to live long enough to cross the economic cycle and always catch up with a wave of salty hairtail. Under normal circumstances, the service life of large-scale mines newly put into production must be 15-20 years, and the so-called world-class mines can often reach more than 50 years (world-class mines have huge reserves/resource base, and often the prospecting prospects in the surrounding and deep areas are huge, so there is no way, and the good ones will only be better. Sometimes we can observe that large mines are exploring while producing. Reserves/resources are increasing) Escondida, the world's largest copper mine, now the general manager of this project once said that according to the current output of Escondida, this project can last for another 654.38+000 years (kneeling and singing conquest). So when looking at the project, don't look at the broken things in front of you, especially the spot price, which looks particularly small. Because the world-class projects we talk to you are often a career that lasts for decades or even longer. We are talking about the cause that this mine can continue to produce for mankind even if we all retire. Today, our protagonist Niu 13, regardless of exploration, only Kagula can produce for more than 20 years, but the vein of Kagula has not been closed. Even if Kagula has finished digging, he can continue exploration, and then we believe that large mines can still be found in this area, although its grade may not be as good as that of Kamoa-Kagula.
The production cost is low. The industry will compare the production costs of mines, first of all, the cash cost of C 1 (the cash cost of C 1, as its name implies, is the cash cost related to on-site production, so it does not include amortization and depreciation, financial expenses, off-site management expenses, mining tax, etc. This directly reflects the essential competitiveness of mines, while China people prefer to look at the full cost, because they can directly look at whether there is a net profit. Foreigners call this kind of thing C3), and then some consulting organizations will draw a global mine C 1 cash cost map, taking every 25% output as a quota, so people in the industry always say that my cash cost of this project is in the top few percent. At present, the production weighted median of copper C 1 cash cost is around 1.4 USD/lb, which is about 3086 USD/ton (the spot price of copper fluctuates around 5800 USD/ton now). If our project is near here, it shows that the project itself has a strong ability to resist risks, and price fluctuations will not lead to the suspension of production (it does not mean that there will be profits, who knows that you will make depreciation, and you? If the cost of a better project is around $2,200/ton, the project with this cost can basically bring profits at any time. Today's protagonist, although there is only one inaccurate data in PEA, the estimated cost of 23 15 USD/ton, combined with the appalling low overall investment intensity, eighteen copper people personally predict that the profitability of this project will be very, very good (important things must be said three times).
Finally, there is potential for further expansion. This article can directly deny most of the so-called? World-class project? . It is really difficult to expand production after most projects meet the above standards. Either they can't find a mine, or they have found a mine, but the economy of the mine is average and can't further increase its economic value. The Kamoa-Kakula project is really a treasure. When it is 4 million tons, it can reach 200,000. Peas can continue to discuss increasing the processing capacity to 8 million tons, 6.5438+0.2 million tons and 6.5438+0.6 million tons. Moreover, this increase in production is purely an economic issue and is not limited by the mine itself. Who made this product have such a large reserve/resource base?
Although the data in PEA will be quite different from the actual production data, and the project has not yet been completed, no one knows what will happen in the future, and there are various risks in the broken place in Kinna, Congo, but as far as mining is concerned, Kamoa-Kakula absolutely meets the previous standards and can be called world-class, or more accurately, the project has great potential to become a world-class project. Previously, the eighteen copper people thought that as far as Kamoa was concerned, this project was a little tasteless and had a slightly higher grade, but the transportation cost of underground mining and mining sulfide ore was high, and the investment in Congolese gold was too large, so the IRR of the whole project was a bit unbearable; But with Kagula, this discovery is really great, which is equivalent to reversing the economy of the whole project. Now eighteen copper people really think that boss Chen of Zijin may have found the treasure.
Finally, in order to become a world-class mining company, the company must have world-class projects in its asset portfolio. Chinalco has Simandou, Luoyang Molybdenum has Tengke, Minmetals has Las Bambas, and Zijin's future should be in Kamoa-Kakula. In order to truly become a world-class mining company, Chinalco and Zijin should develop Simandou and Kamoa-Kakula respectively, while Minmetals and Moro should operate Las Bambas and Tenke respectively.
For details, please pay attention to official website of lingbao city Lisan Machinery Co., Ltd.