The Wall Street storm triggered by the American subprime mortgage crisis has now evolved into a global financial crisis. The rapid development, large quantity and great influence of this process can be said to be unexpected. Generally speaking, it can be divided into three stages: first, the debt crisis, housing lenders can not repay the principal and interest on time caused by the problem. The second stage is the liquidity crisis. Due to the debt crisis, some of these financial institutions cannot have enough liquidity in time to meet the creditors' requirements for liquidation. The third stage is the credit crisis. In other words, people have doubts about credit-based financial activities, leading to such a crisis.
To put it simply, Americans are playing the subprime mortgage game, and then other countries in the world buy these bonds one after another, so they are all implicated. Because of the economic crisis in some developed countries, such as the United States, some countries have reduced their imports, so some countries that rely on exports are more seriously injured.
Secondly, it affects China, because firstly, some financial institutions in China have bought American bonds, and secondly, many China enterprises rely on exports, thus affecting the whole market.
Third, the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis on China's economy.
First of all, the subprime mortgage crisis mainly affected China's exports.
The subprime mortgage crisis has slowed down the growth of American economy and global economy, and its impact on China's economy, especially its exports, cannot be ignored. In 2007, China's monthly export growth rate dropped from 5 1.6% in February 2007 to 2 1.7% in February 2007 due to the weak import demand in the United States and Europe. The US subprime mortgage crisis led to a decline in China's export growth. On the one hand, it will slow down the economic growth of China to a certain extent. At the same time, due to the slow economic growth in China, the social demand for labor force is less than the supply of labor force, which will increase the employment pressure of the whole society.
Secondly, China will face the dual pressures of slowing economic growth and severe employment situation.
Up to now, China's CPI has been below 4% for two consecutive months, 1.0% and1.2% respectively, while the PPI is 1.3% and1.2%. The economic situation is very severe, and the GDP in the third quarter is very severe. The closure of a large number of small and medium-sized processing enterprises has also aggravated the grim situation of unemployment. At present, the top economic priority of our country is to maintain growth and promote employment.
Finally, the subprime mortgage crisis will increase China's exchange rate risk and capital market risk.
In response to the negative impact of the subprime mortgage crisis, the United States adopted a loose monetary policy and a weak dollar exchange rate policy. The sharp depreciation of the US dollar has brought huge exchange rate risks to China. At present, China's foreign exchange reserves have been reduced from 1.9 trillion dollars to 1.89 trillion dollars, and the stock loss of 10%-20% is very huge. With the economic slowdown in developed countries, China's economy continues to grow, the dollar continues to depreciate, the expectation of RMB appreciation continues, and international capital flows to China to find a safe haven, which will aggravate the risk of China's capital market.
However, the most unexpected thing is the oil that once rose to 147 dollars. Some people even predict that it will rise to the ultra-high price of $200 or even $300 next year, and it will plummet all the way. First, it broke the $70 mark, then constantly challenged people's expectations, breaking 60, then breaking 50, until now it is more than $40 a barrel. However, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is also constantly reducing production, and now it has reduced the original output by 12%, no? In addition, due to the lack of manufacturing demand in China, the once-soaring mineral prices have also fallen sharply.