At present, the pricing power of the international gold market is mainly dominated by the American gold market and the London gold market, and the domestic gold price is determined according to the international gold price, which is highly correlated with the domestic gold price. According to statistics, in 2007, the spot price difference between international and domestic gold markets remained within 1% most of the time. This fully shows that the trend of domestic gold price is consistent with the trend of international gold price, and the factors affecting the change of international gold price will also affect the change of domestic gold price. Second, pay attention to the influence of spot price of gold in China on futures price.
At present, the spot price of gold in China is mainly formed in Shanghai Gold Exchange, while the domestic gold futures price will be dominated by Shanghai Futures Exchange. The spread between the spot price and the futures price of gold should be kept within a reasonable range. If the spread between spot price and futures price is too large, a large amount of arbitrage funds will be involved in the two markets to obtain risk-free arbitrage income, so that the spread between spot price and futures price of gold will return to a reasonable range. This reasonable spread range is mainly determined by the amount of expenses incurred in the process of trading, holding and delivery.
At present, the physical specifications of the products delivered by Shanghai Futures Exchange are basically the same as those of Shanghai Gold Exchange, both of which are 3 kg gold ingots with a purity of 99.95%, which provides convenient conditions for physical circulation and arbitrage in the two markets. However, at present, the warehouse receipts of the two exchanges cannot be exchanged, which makes the mutual circulation of gold futures and spot markets increase the cost.
Third, pay attention to the impact of RMB exchange rate appreciation on China gold price.
In recent years, the RMB exchange rate has maintained an appreciation trend. In 2007, the RMB appreciated by 6.4% against the US dollar, which means that the price of gold denominated in US dollars will decrease if it is denominated in RMB. According to statistics, the price of gold in London rose by 30.87% in 2007, while the price of gold in Shanghai Gold Exchange in 1995 only rose by 22.68%, with an increase of 8. 19%, which was higher than the appreciation of RMB exchange rate. Some professional organizations predict that the exchange rate of RMB/USD will fall to 6.64 by the end of 2008, which means that RMB will appreciate by 10% against USD. According to this estimate, the increase of domestic gold price in 2008 will also lag behind the increase of international gold price by about 10%.
To sum up, there are many factors that affect the domestic gold futures price, and these factors will have an important impact on the gold futures price through interaction or chain reaction. Among them, the international gold price is the dominant factor that determines the domestic gold price, and the domestic spot gold price and RMB exchange rate are also important factors that affect the domestic gold futures price.