What will the future fashion look like?
With the coronavirus pneumonia-19 (COVID-19) epidemic closing high-end stores and disrupting international travel, 2020 will be the worst year in the modern history of the global luxury market.
Looking forward to the future, health will become the ultimate luxury, and sellers of handbags, shoes and watches will face competition from new high-end goods, including marijuana.
According to the analysis, the ownership of luxury goods groups will be shaken. By 2030, LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE may have 90 to 100 brands, but now there are only 76 brands-if it acquires Tiffany &; The company's bid will reach 77. In contrast, many smaller competitors will merge, close down and be acquired, or in some cases, for example, Moncler SpA, a scarf and jacket manufacturer, will acquire other brands. With the slow growth of the so-called affordable luxury handbags, it is expected that the ownership of Macquarie, Coach and Tory Burch will change in the next 10 year.
There is evidence that both Chinese mainland and the United States have seen very strong rebound recently, some of which are artificial and short-term, because it is a potential demand or retaliatory purchase. But some are more basic. You didn't spend a lot of money on your past expenses, such as holidays and going to restaurants. With this kind of psychology, it is almost survival consumption. Most people have experienced this situation. This is very difficult. Sometimes it's depressing. I'm a little neurotic already. Let's reward ourselves.
After the epidemic crisis, will health become the ultimate luxury?
Many of us regard health as a new wealth. At present, the overlap with luxury goods is more in street clothes and sports shoes. Can an LVMH or a Kering SA invest in a health-oriented high-end company? You can see that Lululemon Athletica Inc has bought Mirror, a company that helps you stay healthy at home. The example of the vernal equinox is very good. Equinox is now at the boundary between health and hotel industry, and also benefits from the premium and the desire of the rich for physical and mental health-health is part of the new wealth movement. In the next 10 year, the tourism industry will not die, nor will the hotel industry. If there are ways to combine them, health will be a good compound growth industry. LVMH's mission may be to redefine what luxury goods should be in the future 10. There are not many taboos.
Does this include marijuana? It is predicted that it will become one of the fastest growing categories.
Luxury brands are unlikely to invest, mainly because of regulatory issues. But on some streets in Los Angeles, marijuana companies are competing with luxury companies for jobs, employees and wallet shares. And you have high-end development, such as wine and food, marijuana. And sesame oil, a bit like whiskey and cognac. In theory, all these can take away some of the money originally spent on luxury brands.
Apart from Hermes International, Chanel and Rolex, few companies will remain independent. How will this develop?
Once we get out of this crisis in a meaningful way, we will see a new era of crazy mergers and acquisitions. There are few forced sales. More importantly, many families realize that size is very important. If you are alone, it is difficult to stand out from the crowd. Families will merge or sell assets, not because they have to, but because they know that this may be a better solution, so that their names will still exist 30 years later.
Will LVMH eventually acquire Tiffany?
No matter what happens, it makes sense for LVMH to develop jewelry. They explained that they would not continue the transaction because of the six-week delay. However, LVMH has the motivation to start from a 30-year perspective. They either want to get a better price, or they have bigger things that we don't know, which may be the cooperation with Richemont Group. People are talking about their new bride. But there are many complicated things. This story is not over yet. We will hear the news in the next few months.